** WTIN01 DEMS 231800 *** SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII(N) NORTH OF EQUATOR VALID FOR 24 HRS. FROM 2006 09 23 1800/UTC: 23 SEP,2006 PART I: THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM MUKDA) OVER NORTH EAST ARABIAN SEA REMAINED PRACTICALLY STAIONARY AND NOW LIES CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF 23RD DEPTEMBER 2006, WITHIN HALF A DEGEREE OF LAT. 21.O DEG N AND LONG. 67.0 DEG E ABOUT 300 KMS WEST SOUTH WEST OF PORBANDAR (.) IT LIKELY TO MOVE SLOWLY IN A NORTH EASTERLY DIRCTION AND CROSS GUJRAT COAST BETWEEN PORBANDAR AND NALLA BY TOMORROW EVENING (.) PART II : WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET AREA VIII(N)(.) PART III: FORECAST ARB-A1 ARABIAN SEA EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N WEST OF 80 DEG E I)WIND : MAINLY SW 05/10 KTS (.) II)WEATHER : SCATTERED RA/TS (.) III)VISIBILITY : POOR IN RAIN(.) IV) STATE OF SEA: SLIGHT ARB-A2-ARABIAN SEA NORTH OF 10 DEG N I) WIND: SW/W 55/65 KTS BEC CYCLONIC AROUND THE CENTRE OF LAT.21.0 DEG N/LONG 67.0 DEG E(.) II)WEATHER :WIDE SPREAD RA/TS WITHIN THE RADIUS OF 250 KMS OF CYCLONIC STORM (.) REST AREA WEATHER SCATTERED RA/TS (.) III)VISIBILITY: POOR IN RA/TS (.) IV)STATE OF SEA: VERY HIGH (.) BOB-A3-BAY OF BENGAL EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N EAST OF 80 DEG E I) WIND: S/SW 10/15 KTS (.) II)WEATHER :SCT-RA/TS TO THE E OF 95 DEG E (.) REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS(.) III)VISIBILITY: POOR IN RAIN (.) IV)STATE OF SEA: SLIGHT(.) BOB-A4-BAY OF BENGAL NORTH OF 15 DEG N I)WIND: SW 15/20 KTS BEC S/SE TO THE NORTH OF 18 DEG N (.) II)WEATHER :FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD RA/TS(.) III)VISIBILITY: POOR IN RAIN (.) IV)STATE OF SEA: MODERATE(.) ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT ++++ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 231800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY YAGI 0614 (0614) INITIAL TIME 231800 UTC 00HR 32.1N 145.1E 975HPA 35M/S 30KTS 320KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR NE 30KM/H P+24HR 37.4N 152.1E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 42.6N 165.0E 990HPA 20M/S= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 231800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0614 YAGI (0614) ANALYSIS PSTN 231800UTC 32.1N 145.1E FAIR MOVE NE 16KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 100NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST 30KT 220NM SOUTHEAST 160NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 241800UTC 38.7N 156.0E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 28KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 251800UTC 44.1N 171.8E 190NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP22 RJTD 231800 *** WARNING 231800. WARNING VALID 241800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0614 YAGI (0614) 955 HPA AT 32.1N 145.1E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 16 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 38.7N 156.0E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 44.1N 171.8E WITH 190 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 231800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 14 NAME TY 0614 YAGI ANALYSIS POSITION 231800UTC 32.1N 145.1E MOVEMENT NE 16KT PRES/VMAX 955HPA 74KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 240600UTC 35.4N 149.5E WITHIN 110NM PRES/VMAX 965HPA 68KT 24HR POSITION 241800UTC 38.4N 157.2E WITHIN 160NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 54KT 48HR POSITION 251800UTC 45.0N 170.5E WITHIN 0NM PRES 990HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 RJTD 231800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 231800UTC 15.2N 112.0E POOR MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 998HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 241800UTC 17.1N 108.6E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTSS20 VHHH 231945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 231800 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (14.8 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (111.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 241800 UTC ONE SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (16.4 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (108.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251800 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (18.4 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (105.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261800 UTC TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (20.1 N) ONE ZERO TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (102.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 231945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 231800 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (14.8 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (111.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 241800 UTC ONE SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (16.4 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (108.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251800 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (18.4 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (105.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261800 UTC TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (20.1 N) ONE ZERO TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (102.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. ** WTNT43 KNHC 232031 *** TCDAT3 HURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 47 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 500 PM EDT SAT SEP 23 2006 HELENE CURRENTLY DISPLAYS BOTH TROPICAL AND EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE CYCLONE HAS A FRONTAL-LIKE AND ASYMMETRIC APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS DIAGNOSE HELENE TO STILL HAVE A DEEP WARM CORE WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH ITS ABILITY TO STILL PRODUCE CONVECTION...ALBEIT LIMITED...NEAR THE CENTER. HELENE IS SOMEWHERE IN PROCESS OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND IT IS NOT CLEAR AT WHAT POINT THE TRANSFORMATION WILL BE COMPLETE. SINCE THE OVERALL STRUCTURE APPEARS UNCHANGED SINCE THE EARLIER 0915 UTC QUIKSCAT DATA...WHICH SHOWED 80 KT MAXIMUM WINDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 80 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY APPROACHING HELENE FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY RESTRICTED. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED HELENE COULD LOSE WHAT REMAINS OF ITS INNER CORE CONVECTION AND THEREFORE LOSE WHAT TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IT HAS LEFT. ASSUMING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION COMPLETES IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MORE RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST THEREAFTER AS THE CYCLONE LOSES SOME OF ITS BAROCLINIC SUPPORT. HELENE HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 070/19. THERE HAS OTHERWISE BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IN THE SHORT-TERM...AND GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE TRACK GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE BUT NOT NEARLY AS MUCH AS BEFORE. THE NOGAPS MODEL...WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY THE NORTHERN OUTLIER...HAS SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH AND IS NOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE. THE UKMET MODEL...WHICH PREVIOUSLY SHOWED A TURN DUE SOUTH WITH THE ECMWF...HAS SHIFTED NORTH AND IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SOUTHWARD TURN...BUT THIS IS CONSIDERED A LESS LIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN THE NOW BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 38.0N 44.4W 80 KT 12HR VT 24/0600Z 39.1N 40.9W 75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 24/1800Z 41.3N 36.4W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 25/0600Z 43.2N 32.4W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 25/1800Z 44.6N 28.8W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 26/1800Z 47.0N 21.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 27/1800Z 49.0N 15.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 28/1800Z 51.0N 11.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB ** WTNT23 KNHC 232031 *** TCMAT3 HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 47 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 2100 UTC SAT SEP 23 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 44.4W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 115SE 115SW 90NW. 50 KT....... 75NE 150SE 150SW 175NW. 34 KT.......225NE 225SE 300SW 300NW. 12 FT SEAS..500NE 400SE 400SW 500NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 44.4W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.6N 45.5W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 39.1N 40.9W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 115SE 115SW 90NW. 50 KT... 75NE 150SE 150SW 175NW. 34 KT...225NE 225SE 300SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 41.3N 36.4W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT...120NE 150SE 150SW 120NW. 50 KT...150NE 175SE 175SW 175NW. 34 KT...240NE 300SE 300SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 43.2N 32.4W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT...120NE 150SE 150SW 120NW. 50 KT...150NE 175SE 175SW 175NW. 34 KT...240NE 300SE 300SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 44.6N 28.8W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. 34 KT...300NE 300SE 300SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 47.0N 21.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...240NE 240SE 240SW 240NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 49.0N 15.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 51.0N 11.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.0N 44.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB ** WTNT33 KNHC 232031 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 47 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 500 PM AST SAT SEP 23 2006 ...HELENE REMAINS A HURRICANE... AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.4 WEST OR ABOUT 945 MILES... 1520 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES. HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF HELENE...AS A NON-TROPICAL SYSTEM...IS FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF THE AZORES...GALE FORCE WINDS COULD IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE AZORES BEGINNING TOMORROW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HELENE GRADUALLY LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 130 MILES...215 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...38.0 N...44.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB ** WTPN32 PGTW 232100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231353ZSEP2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 16W (YAGI) WARNING NR 028 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z --- NEAR 32.1N 144.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 32.1N 144.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 35.3N 148.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 29 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 38.7N 154.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 232100Z POSITION NEAR 32.9N 145.9E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 28 FEET. TYPHOON (TY) 16W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT43 KNHC 232031 *** TCDAT3 HURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 47 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 500 PM EDT SAT SEP 23 2006 HELENE CURRENTLY DISPLAYS BOTH TROPICAL AND EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE CYCLONE HAS A FRONTAL-LIKE AND ASYMMETRIC APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS DIAGNOSE HELENE TO STILL HAVE A DEEP WARM CORE WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH ITS ABILITY TO STILL PRODUCE CONVECTION...ALBEIT LIMITED...NEAR THE CENTER. HELENE IS SOMEWHERE IN PROCESS OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND IT IS NOT CLEAR AT WHAT POINT THE TRANSFORMATION WILL BE COMPLETE. SINCE THE OVERALL STRUCTURE APPEARS UNCHANGED SINCE THE EARLIER 0915 UTC QUIKSCAT DATA...WHICH SHOWED 80 KT MAXIMUM WINDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 80 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY APPROACHING HELENE FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY RESTRICTED. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED HELENE COULD LOSE WHAT REMAINS OF ITS INNER CORE CONVECTION AND THEREFORE LOSE WHAT TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IT HAS LEFT. ASSUMING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION COMPLETES IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MORE RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST THEREAFTER AS THE CYCLONE LOSES SOME OF ITS BAROCLINIC SUPPORT. HELENE HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 070/19. THERE HAS OTHERWISE BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IN THE SHORT-TERM...AND GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE TRACK GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE BUT NOT NEARLY AS MUCH AS BEFORE. THE NOGAPS MODEL...WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY THE NORTHERN OUTLIER...HAS SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH AND IS NOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE. THE UKMET MODEL...WHICH PREVIOUSLY SHOWED A TURN DUE SOUTH WITH THE ECMWF...HAS SHIFTED NORTH AND IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SOUTHWARD TURN...BUT THIS IS CONSIDERED A LESS LIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN THE NOW BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 38.0N 44.4W 80 KT 12HR VT 24/0600Z 39.1N 40.9W 75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 24/1800Z 41.3N 36.4W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 25/0600Z 43.2N 32.4W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 25/1800Z 44.6N 28.8W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 26/1800Z 47.0N 21.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 27/1800Z 49.0N 15.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 28/1800Z 51.0N 11.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB ** WTNT23 KNHC 232031 *** TCMAT3 HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 47 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 2100 UTC SAT SEP 23 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 44.4W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 115SE 115SW 90NW. 50 KT....... 75NE 150SE 150SW 175NW. 34 KT.......225NE 225SE 300SW 300NW. 12 FT SEAS..500NE 400SE 400SW 500NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 44.4W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.6N 45.5W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 39.1N 40.9W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 115SE 115SW 90NW. 50 KT... 75NE 150SE 150SW 175NW. 34 KT...225NE 225SE 300SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 41.3N 36.4W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT...120NE 150SE 150SW 120NW. 50 KT...150NE 175SE 175SW 175NW. 34 KT...240NE 300SE 300SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 43.2N 32.4W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT...120NE 150SE 150SW 120NW. 50 KT...150NE 175SE 175SW 175NW. 34 KT...240NE 300SE 300SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 44.6N 28.8W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. 34 KT...300NE 300SE 300SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 47.0N 21.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...240NE 240SE 240SW 240NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 49.0N 15.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 51.0N 11.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.0N 44.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB ** WTNT33 KNHC 232031 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 47 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 500 PM AST SAT SEP 23 2006 ...HELENE REMAINS A HURRICANE... AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.4 WEST OR ABOUT 945 MILES... 1520 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES. HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF HELENE...AS A NON-TROPICAL SYSTEM...IS FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF THE AZORES...GALE FORCE WINDS COULD IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE AZORES BEGINNING TOMORROW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HELENE GRADUALLY LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 130 MILES...215 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...38.0 N...44.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB ** WTPN32 PGTW 232100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231353ZSEP2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 16W (YAGI) WARNING NR 028 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z --- NEAR 32.1N 144.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 32.1N 144.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 35.3N 148.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 29 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 38.7N 154.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 232100Z POSITION NEAR 32.9N 145.9E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 28 FEET. TYPHOON (TY) 16W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ21 RJTD 232100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0614 YAGI (0614) ANALYSIS PSTN 232100UTC 32.8N 146.0E FAIR MOVE NE 17KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 110NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST 30KT 230NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 242100UTC 39.2N 157.0E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 28KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 251800UTC 44.1N 171.8E 190NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP32 RJTD 232100 *** WARNING 232100. WARNING VALID 242100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0614 YAGI (0614) 955 HPA AT 32.8N 146.0E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 17 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 110 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 242100UTC AT 39.2N 157.0E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTNT43 KNHC 232031 *** TCDAT3 HURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 47 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 500 PM EDT SAT SEP 23 2006 HELENE CURRENTLY DISPLAYS BOTH TROPICAL AND EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE CYCLONE HAS A FRONTAL-LIKE AND ASYMMETRIC APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS DIAGNOSE HELENE TO STILL HAVE A DEEP WARM CORE WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH ITS ABILITY TO STILL PRODUCE CONVECTION...ALBEIT LIMITED...NEAR THE CENTER. HELENE IS SOMEWHERE IN PROCESS OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND IT IS NOT CLEAR AT WHAT POINT THE TRANSFORMATION WILL BE COMPLETE. SINCE THE OVERALL STRUCTURE APPEARS UNCHANGED SINCE THE EARLIER 0915 UTC QUIKSCAT DATA...WHICH SHOWED 80 KT MAXIMUM WINDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 80 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY APPROACHING HELENE FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY RESTRICTED. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED HELENE COULD LOSE WHAT REMAINS OF ITS INNER CORE CONVECTION AND THEREFORE LOSE WHAT TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IT HAS LEFT. ASSUMING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION COMPLETES IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MORE RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST THEREAFTER AS THE CYCLONE LOSES SOME OF ITS BAROCLINIC SUPPORT. HELENE HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 070/19. THERE HAS OTHERWISE BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IN THE SHORT-TERM...AND GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE TRACK GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE BUT NOT NEARLY AS MUCH AS BEFORE. THE NOGAPS MODEL...WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY THE NORTHERN OUTLIER...HAS SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH AND IS NOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE. THE UKMET MODEL...WHICH PREVIOUSLY SHOWED A TURN DUE SOUTH WITH THE ECMWF...HAS SHIFTED NORTH AND IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SOUTHWARD TURN...BUT THIS IS CONSIDERED A LESS LIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN THE NOW BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 38.0N 44.4W 80 KT 12HR VT 24/0600Z 39.1N 40.9W 75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 24/1800Z 41.3N 36.4W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 25/0600Z 43.2N 32.4W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 25/1800Z 44.6N 28.8W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 26/1800Z 47.0N 21.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 27/1800Z 49.0N 15.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 28/1800Z 51.0N 11.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB ** WTNT23 KNHC 232031 *** TCMAT3 HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 47 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 2100 UTC SAT SEP 23 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 44.4W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 115SE 115SW 90NW. 50 KT....... 75NE 150SE 150SW 175NW. 34 KT.......225NE 225SE 300SW 300NW. 12 FT SEAS..500NE 400SE 400SW 500NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 44.4W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.6N 45.5W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 39.1N 40.9W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 115SE 115SW 90NW. 50 KT... 75NE 150SE 150SW 175NW. 34 KT...225NE 225SE 300SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 41.3N 36.4W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT...120NE 150SE 150SW 120NW. 50 KT...150NE 175SE 175SW 175NW. 34 KT...240NE 300SE 300SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 43.2N 32.4W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT...120NE 150SE 150SW 120NW. 50 KT...150NE 175SE 175SW 175NW. 34 KT...240NE 300SE 300SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 44.6N 28.8W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. 34 KT...300NE 300SE 300SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 47.0N 21.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...240NE 240SE 240SW 240NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 49.0N 15.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 51.0N 11.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.0N 44.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB ** WTNT33 KNHC 232031 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 47 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 500 PM AST SAT SEP 23 2006 ...HELENE REMAINS A HURRICANE... AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.4 WEST OR ABOUT 945 MILES... 1520 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES. HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF HELENE...AS A NON-TROPICAL SYSTEM...IS FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF THE AZORES...GALE FORCE WINDS COULD IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE AZORES BEGINNING TOMORROW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HELENE GRADUALLY LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 130 MILES...215 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...38.0 N...44.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB ** WTPQ20 RJTD 232100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 232100UTC 15.4N 111.8E POOR MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 996HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 242100UTC 17.4N 107.9E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPH RPLL 231800 *** GALE WARNING NO.02 FOR STRONG WINDS ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. ISSUED AT 5:00AM TODAY, 24 SEPTEMBER 2006 MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (15.1N 112.0E) IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE WESTERN SEABOARD OF LUZON. THE WESTERN SEABOARD OF LUZON WILL EXPERIENCE CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS OF 40 TO 70KPH (22 TO 35KNOTS) FRON THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST ARE EXPECTED AND SEA CONDITIONS WILL BE ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH WITH WAVE HEIGHT OF 2.5 TO 5.0 METERS. FISHING BOATS AND OTHER SMALL SEACRAFTS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUT INTO THE SEA WHILE BIGGER SEACRAFTS ARE ALERTED AGAINST MODERATE TO HIGH WAVES. WATCH FOR THE NEXT BULLETIN TO BE ISSUED AT 5:00PM TODAY= ** WTSS20 VHHH 232245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 232100 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (15.2 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (111.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 242100 UTC ONE SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (16.5 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (108.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 252100 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (18.6 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (105.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 262100 UTC TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (20.3 N) ONE ZERO TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (102.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 232245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 232100 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (15.2 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (111.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 242100 UTC ONE SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (16.5 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (108.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 252100 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (18.6 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (105.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 262100 UTC TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (20.3 N) ONE ZERO TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (102.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS.