** WTNT23 KNHC 231216 *** TCMAT3 HURRICANE HELENE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 45 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1200 UTC SAT SEP 23 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 47.2W AT 23/1200Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 22 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 115SE 115SW 90NW. 50 KT....... 75NE 150SE 150SW 175NW. 34 KT.......225NE 225SE 300SW 300NW. 12 FT SEAS..500NE 400SE 400SW 500NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 47.2W AT 23/1200Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.7N 49.3W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 38.2N 44.8W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 115SE 115SW 90NW. 50 KT... 75NE 150SE 150SW 175NW. 34 KT...225NE 225SE 300SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 39.7N 40.3W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 115SE 115SW 90NW. 50 KT... 75NE 150SE 150SW 175NW. 34 KT...225NE 225SE 300SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 41.5N 35.8W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 75NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 150SW 120NW. 34 KT...300NE 300SE 300SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 43.3N 31.7W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. 34 KT...360NE 360SE 300SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 46.8N 23.9W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. 34 KT...360NE 360SE 300SW 300NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 50.4N 16.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 55.0N 10.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.4N 47.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB ** WTPQ20 BABJ 231200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY YAGI 0614 (0614) INITIAL TIME 231200 UTC 00HR 31.0N 143.7E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 320KM 50KTS 140KM P12HR NE 30KM/H P+24HR 38.0N 151.0E 970HPA 35M/S P+48HR 43.0N 166.6E 985HPA 25M/S= ** WTNT33 KNHC 231221 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE HELENE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 45 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 800 AM AST SAT SEP 23 2006 ...HELENE REGAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH... AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.2 WEST OR ABOUT 1105 MILES ...1775 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES. HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HELENE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 130 MILES...215 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...37.4 N...47.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB ** WTNT43 KNHC 231226 *** TCDAT3 HURRICANE HELENE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 45 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 800 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2006 THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY AND WIND RADII FOR HELENE. THE TRACK FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES THAT HELENE CONTAINS A LARGE AREA OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 80 KT IS BASED ON THE STRONGEST WIND IN THE QUIKSCAT DATA...WHICH WAS OUTSIDE OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED ALSO BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA. EVEN THOUGH HELENE HAS STRENGTHENED...IT CONTINUES TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND IS EXPECTED TO TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/1200Z 37.4N 47.2W 80 KT 12HR VT 23/1800Z 38.2N 44.8W 75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 24/0600Z 39.7N 40.3W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 24/1800Z 41.5N 35.8W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 25/0600Z 43.3N 31.7W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 26/0600Z 46.8N 23.9W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 27/0600Z 50.4N 16.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 28/0600Z 55.0N 10.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB ** WTCA43 TJSJ 231230 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN HELENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 45 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL082006 800 AM AST SABADO 23 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...HELENE RECOBRA FUERZA HURACANADA... A LAS 800 AM AST...1200Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN HELENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 37.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 47.4 OESTE O COMO A 1105 MILLAS...1775 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE DE LAS AZORES. BERMUDA. HELENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL ESTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 25 MPH...41 KM/HR Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 90 MPH...150 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA QUE HELENE SE DEBILITE LENTAMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS A MEDIDA QUE PIERDA SUS CARACTERISTICAS TROPICALES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA UNAS 130 MILLAS...215 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 345 MILLAS...355 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA FUE DE 970 MILIBARAS...28.64 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 800 AM AST...37.4 NORTE...47.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...ESTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 25 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...90 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...970 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA A LAS 11 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR RHOME/KNABB ** WTJP22 RJTD 231200 *** WARNING 231200. WARNING VALID 241200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0614 YAGI (0614) 955 HPA AT 31.0N 143.7E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 13 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 33.9N 146.8E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 36.5N 151.1E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 42.6N 166.9E WITH 190 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 231200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0614 YAGI (0614) ANALYSIS PSTN 231200UTC 31.0N 143.7E FAIR MOVE NE 13KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 100NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST 30KT 220NM SOUTHEAST 160NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 241200UTC 36.5N 151.1E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 22KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 48HF 251200UTC 42.6N 166.9E 190NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTIN01 DEMS 231200 *** SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET AREA VIII NORTH OF EQUATOR VALID FOR 12 HRS. FROM 1200 UTC OF 23 SEP 2006 SPECIAL GMDSS BULLETIN ---------------------- PART-I:MORNING SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (MUKDA) OVER EC ARABIAN SEA AND ADJ. NE ARABIAN SEA PRACTICALLY STATIONARY CENTRED NEAR LAT 21.0 DEG N/LONG. 67.0 DEG E ABOUT 300 KMS WSW OF PORBANDAR AND MOVED SLOWLY IN A NE-LY DIRECTION AND LIKELY TO CROSS GUJRAT COAST BETWEEN PORBANDAR AND NALIA(.) ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT ++++ ** WTPQ20 RJTD 231200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 231200UTC 15.1N 112.0E POOR MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 998HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 241200UTC 16.8N 108.9E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTIN01 DEMS 231200 *** SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET AREA VIII NORTH OF EQUATOR VALID FOR 12 HRS. FROM 1200 UTC OF 23 SEP 2006 SPECIAL GMDSS BULLETIN ---------------------- PART-I:MORNING SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (MUKDA) OVER EC ARABIAN SEA AND ADJ. NE ARABIAN SEA PRACTICALLY STATIONARY CENTRED NEAR LAT 21.0 DEG N/LONG. 67.0 DEG E ABOUT 280 KMS SW OF PORBANDAR AND MOVED SLOWLY IN A NE-LY DIRECTION AND LIKELY TO CROSS GUJRAT COAST BETWEEN PORBANDAR AND NALIA(.) ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT ** WTSS20 VHHH 231345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 231200 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (14.3 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (111.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 241200 UTC ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (15.9 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (110.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251200 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (18.0 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (106.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261200 UTC ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (19.7 N) ONE ZERO THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (103.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 231345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 231200 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (14.3 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (111.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 241200 UTC ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (15.9 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (110.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251200 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (18.0 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (106.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261200 UTC ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (19.7 N) ONE ZERO THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (103.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. ** WTPN32 PGTW 231500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231353ZSEP2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 16W (YAGI) WARNING NR 027 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 231200Z --- NEAR 31.1N 143.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 31.1N 143.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 33.7N 147.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 24 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 37.3N 151.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 231500Z POSITION NEAR 31.8N 144.7E. TYPHOON (TY) 16W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 32 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX- HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 231500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231352ZSEP2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS// 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 231200Z --- NEAR 14.9N 111.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 111.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 15.8N 109.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 16.6N 108.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 17.1N 106.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 17.4N 105.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 231500Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 110.8E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 17W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 16W (YAGI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT23 KNHC 231435 *** TCMAT3 HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 46 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1500 UTC SAT SEP 23 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 46.4W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 115SE 115SW 90NW. 50 KT....... 75NE 150SE 150SW 175NW. 34 KT.......225NE 225SE 300SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 46.4W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 47.5W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 38.9N 43.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 115SE 115SW 90NW. 50 KT... 75NE 150SE 150SW 175NW. 34 KT...225NE 225SE 300SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 40.7N 38.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 90NE 120SE 120SW 90NW. 50 KT...120NE 175SE 175SW 175NW. 34 KT...240NE 270SE 270SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 42.5N 34.2W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 90NE 120SE 120SW 90NW. 50 KT...120NE 175SE 175SW 175NW. 34 KT...240NE 270SE 270SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 44.1N 30.7W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. 34 KT...360NE 360SE 300SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 47.0N 23.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. 34 KT...360NE 360SE 300SW 240NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 49.0N 18.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 50.5N 13.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.7N 46.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB ** WTNT33 KNHC 231442 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 46 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 AM AST SAT SEP 23 2006 ...HELENE MAINTAINING HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.4 WEST OR ABOUT 1055 MILES ...1700 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES. HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HELENE GRADUALLY LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 130 MILES...215 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...37.7 N...46.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB ** WTNT43 KNHC 231445 *** TCDAT3 HURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 46 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2006 HELENE APPEARS WELL ON ITS WAY TO BECOMING AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER AND JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER. SINCE THE STRUCTURE APPEARS UNCHANGED SINCE THE 0915 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS THAT SHOWED 80 KT MAXIMUM WINDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 80 KT. UNTIL THE INNER CORE CONVECTION DISSIPATES...WHICH COULD HAPPEN AT ANY TIME...HELENE WILL BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ONCE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS COMPLETE...WHICH WE ANTICIPATE WILL HAPPEN LATER TODAY...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE WIND FIELD SPREADS OUT. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR EXTRATROPICAL HELENE TO PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE AZORES DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS...THE LARGE AND EXPANDING WIND FIELD MEANS THAT GALE FORCE WINDS COULD AFFECT THE AZORES BEGINNING ON SUNDAY. BEYOND 48 HOURS...WEAKENING COULD BECOME MORE RAPID AS GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE CYCLONE WILL LOSE ITS BAROCLINIC SUPPORT. HELENE IS MOVING RIGHT ALONG THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 065/20. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IN THE SHORT-TERM...AND GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE TRACK GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH CONSIDERABLE SPREAD BY DAY 5. THE NOGAPS MODEL FORECASTS HELENE TO MERGE WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM RESULTING IN A NORTHWARD TURN. CONVERSELY...THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS FORECAST A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE AZORES RESULTING IN EXTRATROPICAL HELENE TURNING SOUTH. AT THIS TIME...IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE IF EITHER OF THESE OUTLIER SCENARIOS IS MORE PLAUSIBLE. ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES IN BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES AND IS NEAR BOTH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THIS REPRESENTS A SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT AND A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION AT THE END OF THE FORECAST. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/1500Z 37.7N 46.4W 80 KT 12HR VT 24/0000Z 38.9N 43.0W 80 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 24/1200Z 40.7N 38.5W 75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 25/0000Z 42.5N 34.2W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 25/1200Z 44.1N 30.7W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 26/1200Z 47.0N 23.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 27/1200Z 49.0N 18.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 28/1200Z 50.5N 13.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB ** WTCA43 TJSJ 231446 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN HELENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 46 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 AM AST SABADO 23 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...HELENE MANTENIENDO FUERZA HURACANADA SOBRE EL ATLANTICO NORTE... A LAS 1100 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN HELENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 37.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 46.4 OESTE O COMO A 1055 MILLAS...1700 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE DE LAS AZORES. HELENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL ESTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 22 MPH...35 KM/HR Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 90 MPH...150 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA QUE HELENE SE DEBILITE LENTAMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS A MEDIDA QUE PIERDA SUS CARACTERISTICAS TROPICALES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA UNAS 130 MILLAS...215 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 345 MILLAS...355 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA FUE DE 970 MILIBARAS...28.64 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 AM AST...37.7 NORTE...46.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...ESTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 22 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...90 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...970 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA A LAS 500 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR RHOME/KNABB ** WTNT23 KNHC 231523 *** TCMAT3 HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 46...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1500 UTC SAT SEP 23 2006 ...CORRECTED TO INCLUDE 12 FT SEAS RADII... HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 46.4W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 115SE 115SW 90NW. 50 KT....... 75NE 150SE 150SW 175NW. 34 KT.......225NE 225SE 300SW 300NW. 12 FT SEAS..500NE 400SE 400SW 500NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 46.4W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 47.5W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 38.9N 43.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 115SE 115SW 90NW. 50 KT... 75NE 150SE 150SW 175NW. 34 KT...225NE 225SE 300SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 40.7N 38.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 90NE 120SE 120SW 90NW. 50 KT...120NE 175SE 175SW 175NW. 34 KT...240NE 270SE 270SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 42.5N 34.2W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 90NE 120SE 120SW 90NW. 50 KT...120NE 175SE 175SW 175NW. 34 KT...240NE 270SE 270SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 44.1N 30.7W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. 34 KT...360NE 360SE 300SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 47.0N 23.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. 34 KT...360NE 360SE 300SW 240NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 49.0N 18.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 50.5N 13.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.7N 46.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB ** WTJP32 RJTD 231500 *** WARNING 231500. WARNING VALID 241500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0614 YAGI (0614) 955 HPA AT 31.6N 144.5E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 15 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240300UTC AT 34.4N 147.4E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 241500UTC AT 37.2N 152.1E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 231500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0614 YAGI (0614) ANALYSIS PSTN 231500UTC 31.6N 144.5E FAIR MOVE NE 15KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 100NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST 30KT 220NM SOUTHEAST 160NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 241500UTC 37.2N 152.1E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 23KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 45HF 251200UTC 42.6N 166.9E 190NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ20 RJTD 231500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 231500UTC 15.0N 112.1E POOR MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 998HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 241500UTC 16.8N 108.7E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTSS20 VHHH 231645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 231500 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (14.5 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (111.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 241500 UTC ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (16.2 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (109.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251500 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (18.2 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (106.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261500 UTC ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (19.9 N) ONE ZERO THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (103.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 231645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 231500 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (14.5 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (111.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 241500 UTC ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (16.2 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (109.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251500 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (18.2 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (106.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261500 UTC ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (19.9 N) ONE ZERO THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (103.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. ** WTNT80 EGRR 231729 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 23.09.2006 HURRICANE HELENE ANALYSED POSITION : 37.0N 47.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 23.09.2006 37.0N 47.6W STRONG 00UTC 24.09.2006 39.1N 43.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.09.2006 40.2N 38.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.09.2006 43.0N 34.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.09.2006 43.7N 32.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.09.2006 44.7N 28.2W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 26.09.2006 45.1N 24.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 27.09.2006 46.0N 19.5W ABSORBED BY SYSTEM TO THE NORTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 231729