** WTPQ20 BABJ 230600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY YAGI 0614 (0614) INITIAL TIME 230600 UTC 00HR 30.0N 142.8E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NE 30KM/H P+24HR 35.6N 148.7E 970HPA 35M/S P+48HR 40.1N 159.7E 980HPA 30M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 230600 *** WARNING 230600. WARNING VALID 240600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0614 YAGI (0614) 950 HPA AT 30.0N 142.6E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 15 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 33.0N 145.2E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 35.7N 148.8E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 41.7N 162.0E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 230600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0614 YAGI (0614) ANALYSIS PSTN 230600UTC 30.0N 142.6E GOOD MOVE N 15KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 100NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST 30KT 220NM SOUTHEAST 160NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 240600UTC 35.7N 148.8E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 20KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 48HF 250600UTC 41.7N 162.0E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTKO20 RKSL 230600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 13 NAME TY 0614 YAGI ANALYSIS POSITION 230600UTC 30.0N 142.6E MOVEMENT N 15KT PRES/VMAX 950HPA 80KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 240600UTC 35.1N 147.6E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 72KT 48HR POSITION 250600UTC 38.7N 155.2E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 64KT 72HR POSITION 260600UTC 42.6N 162.4E WITHIN 0NM PRES 990HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 RJTD 230600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 230600UTC 14.3N 111.5E POOR MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 240600UTC 17.0N 109.6E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ31 RJTD 230600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.14 FOR TY 0614 YAGI (0614) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 230600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE. TY WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO EAST-NORTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.5 AFTER 24 HOURS. TY WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 48 HOURS.= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 230600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 2 FOR TD LOCATED AT 14.3N 111.5E 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 230600 UTC IS POOR. TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TD WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO WEST-NORTHWEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE SPIRAL CLOUD BANDS HAVE BECOME WELL ORGANIZED AND CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 230745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 230600 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (14.0 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (113.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 240600 UTC ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (15.3 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (111.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250600 UTC ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (16.6 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (108.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260600 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (17.3 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (105.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 230745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 230600 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (14.0 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (113.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 240600 UTC ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (15.3 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (111.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250600 UTC ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (16.6 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (108.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260600 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (17.3 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (105.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTPN32 PGTW 230300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230153ZSEP2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 16W (YAGI) WARNING NR 025 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230000Z --- NEAR 28.7N 142.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 28.7N 142.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 31.7N 143.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 20 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 34.7N 146.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 25 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 37.4N 151.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 230300Z POSITION NEAR 29.5N 142.4E. TYPHOON (TY) 16W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTIO31 PGTW 230900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (MUKDA) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230600Z --- NEAR 20.7N 67.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.7N 67.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 20.8N 67.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 20.6N 67.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 20.3N 67.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 19.9N 67.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 230900Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 67.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A (MUKDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY (QS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN QS OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS BEFORE THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE OVER THE ARABIAN GULF BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE AN CAUSES TC 04A TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z AND 240900Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 230900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230153ZSEP2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 16W (YAGI) WARNING NR 026 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230600Z --- NEAR 30.1N 142.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 30.1N 142.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 33.2N 144.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 36.6N 148.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 30 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 40.3N 154.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 230900Z POSITION NEAR 30.9N 143.3E. TYPHOON (TY) 16W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17W WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT23 KNHC 230836 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 0900 UTC SAT SEP 23 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.2N 48.2W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 22 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 90NE 135SE 50SW 90NW. 34 KT.......225NE 225SE 200SW 300NW. 12 FT SEAS..400NE 300SE 350SW 400NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.2N 48.2W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.7N 49.3W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 38.2N 44.8W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 135SE 75SW 90NW. 34 KT...225NE 240SE 200SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 39.7N 40.3W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 50 KT...100NE 135SE 120SW 150NW. 34 KT...225NE 240SE 240SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 41.5N 35.8W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 50 KT...120NE 135SE 120SW 150NW. 34 KT...300NE 300SE 240SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 43.3N 31.7W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. 34 KT...360NE 360SE 300SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 46.8N 23.9W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. 34 KT...360NE 360SE 300SW 300NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 50.4N 16.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 55.0N 10.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.2N 48.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTNT43 KNHC 230836 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 44 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 500 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2006 A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -60C HAVE PERSISTED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER FOR MORE THAN 6 HOURS...INDICATING THAT HELENE STILL POSSESSES WARM-CORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. DVORAK SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB AND XT3.5/55 KT FROM AFWA. GIVEN THE FORWARD SPEED IS NOW 22 KT...THE ADDITIONAL TRANSLATIONAL SPEED EASILY SUPPORTS 60 KT FOR THE INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY COULD BE HIGHER. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 060/22. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. AFTER THE SLIGHT EASTWARD JOG ON THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...HELENE APPEARS TO HAVE RETURNED TO A BASE COURSE OF 060 DEGREES...AND THAT GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD BASED ON THE GFDL...GFDN...NOGAPS... GFS...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME DISPARITIES BETWEEN THOSE MODELS AND THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS. BY 72 HOURS... THE LATTER TWO MODELS DROP A PIECE OF STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE BASE OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH THAT IS CAPTURING HELENE....AND DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW THAT DROPS SOUTHWARD OVER THE AZORES. THE OTHER MODELS DO THE SAME EXCEPT THAT THEY MERELY WEAKEN HELENE AND KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE BRITISH ISLES RATHER THAN RAPIDLY DEEPENING HELENE AND TAKING THE CYCLONE SOUTHWARD OVER THE AZORES. GIVEN THAT HELENE IS A DISTINCT ENTITY THAT IS STILL VERTICALLY DEEP...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH TIME FOR A NEW MID-LEVEL LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF HELENE TO CAPTURE THE CYCLONE AND FORCE IT SOUTHWARD IN 72-120 HOURS LIKE THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS ARE INDICATING. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE POISED TO BE DRAWN INTO THE CENTER OF HELENE...AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS THE 12-H FORECAST PERIOD. BY 24 AND THROUGH 48 HOURS...A SHOT OF BAROCLINIC ENERGY BY THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD HELP TO INTENSIFY HELENE AS INDICATED BY ALL OF THE MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0900Z 37.2N 48.2W 60 KT 12HR VT 23/1800Z 38.2N 44.8W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 24/0600Z 39.7N 40.3W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 24/1800Z 41.5N 35.8W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 25/0600Z 43.3N 31.7W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 26/0600Z 46.8N 23.9W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 27/0600Z 50.4N 16.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 28/0600Z 55.0N 10.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTNT33 KNHC 230840 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 44 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 500 AM AST SAT SEP 23 2006 ...HELENE ACCELERATING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC... AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.2 WEST OR ABOUT 1160 MILES...1865 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES. HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HELENE GRADUALLY LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE COOLER WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...37.2 N...48.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPN31 PGTW 230900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230752ZSEP2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS// 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230600Z --- NEAR 14.4N 111.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N 111.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 15.2N 110.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 16.0N 108.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 16.6N 107.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 16.9N 105.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 230900Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 111.2E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 17W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NHA TRANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 16W (YAGI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTIN01 DEMS 230900 *** SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET AREA VIII NORTH OF EQUATOR VALID FOR 24 HRS. FROM 2006 09 23 0900 UTC: 23 SEPT 2006 PART-I: THE CYCLONIC STORM (MUKDA) OVER EAST CENTRAL AND ADJOINING NORTH EAST ARABIAN SEA MOVED IN A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND INTENSIFIED INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM AND LIES CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF 23RD SEPTEMBER 2006, WITH IN HALF A DEGREE OF LAT. 21.0 DEG N/ 67.0 DEG E ABOUT 300 KMS WESTSOUTHWEST OF PORBANDAR. SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND CROSS COAST BETWEEN PORBANDAR AND NALIYA BY TOMORROW MORNING(.) PART-II:THE OFF SHORE TROUGH AT SL FROM MAH COT TO KERALA OT PERSISTS (.) WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET AREA VIII N (.) PART III : FORECAST ARB-A1 ARABIAN SEA EQ. TO 10 DEG. N . WEST OF 80 DEG.E. I)WIND:-MAINLY SW 10/15 KTS (.) II) WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS (.) III) VISIBILITY:- POOR IN RA/TS (.) IV) STATE OF SEA :-SLIGHT(.) ARB-A2 ARABIAN SEA NORTH OF LAT. 10 DEG. NORTH I) WIND:- SW/W 55/65 KTS BEC CYCLONIC AROUND THE CENTRE OF LAT.21.0 DEG.N/LONG.67.0 DEG.E (.) II)WEATHER: - WIDE SPREAD RA/TS WITHIN THE RADIUS OF 250 KMS. OF CYCLONIC STORM (.) REST AREA WEATHER SCATTERED RA/TS (.) III) VISIBILITY: -POOR IN RA/TS (.) . IV)STATE OF SEA: - VERY ROUGH (.) BOB-A3 BAY OF BENGAL EQ. TO LAT. 10 DEG.N.EAST OF 80 DEG. EAST I) WIND:- S/SW 10/15 KTS (.) II) WEATHER: -SCATTERED RA/TS TO THE E OF 95 DEG.E (.) REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS (.) III) VISIBILITY: - POOR IN RA/TS (.) IV)STATE OF SEA: -SLIGHT (.) BOB-A4 BAY OF BENGAL NORTH OF LAT. 10 DEG. N I) WIND: SW 15/20 KTS BEC S/SE TO THE NORTH OF 18 DEG. N(.) II) WEATHER - FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.) III) VISIBILITY - POOR IN RA/TS (.) IV)STATE OF SEA -MODERATE (.) . ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT ** WTJP32 RJTD 230900 *** WARNING 230900. WARNING VALID 240900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0614 YAGI (0614) 950 HPA AT 30.4N 143.3E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 15 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 232100UTC AT 33.5N 145.9E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240900UTC AT 36.3N 149.8E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 230900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0614 YAGI (0614) ANALYSIS PSTN 230900UTC 30.4N 143.3E GOOD MOVE NE 15KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 100NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST 30KT 220NM SOUTHEAST 160NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 240900UTC 36.3N 149.8E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 22KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 45HF 250600UTC 41.7N 162.0E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ20 RJTD 230900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 230900UTC 14.4N 111.2E POOR MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 240900UTC 16.6N 109.3E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 07KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTSS20 VHHH 231045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 230900 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FOUR POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (14.1 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (112.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 240900 UTC ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (15.6 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (110.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250900 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (17.3 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (108.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260900 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (18.6 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (105.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 231045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 230900 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FOUR POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (14.1 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (112.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 240900 UTC ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (15.6 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (110.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250900 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (17.3 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (108.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260900 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (18.6 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (105.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.