** WTPQ20 BABJ 230000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY YAGI 0614 (0614) INITIAL TIME 230000 UTC 00HR 28.6N 142.1E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NNE 25KM/H P+24HR 34.3N 145.8E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 38.4N 153.8E 975HPA 35M/S P+72HR 43.1N 167.2E 980HPA 30M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 230000 *** WARNING 230000. WARNING VALID 240000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0614 YAGI (0614) 940 HPA AT 28.5N 142.2E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTH 12 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 170 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 31.1N 143.6E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 34.1N 146.3E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 38.5N 155.5E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 43.5N 173.8E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 230000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0614 YAGI (0614) ANALYSIS PSTN 230000UTC 28.5N 142.2E GOOD MOVE N 12KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 100NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST 30KT 220NM SOUTHEAST 170NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 240000UTC 34.1N 146.3E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 18KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 250000UTC 38.5N 155.5E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 21KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 260000UTC 43.5N 173.8E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 230000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY YAGI 0614 (0614) INITIAL TIME 230000 UTC 00HR 28.6N 142.1E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NNE 25KM/H P+24HR 34.3N 145.8E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 38.4N 153.8E 975HPA 35M/S P+72HR 43.1N 167.2E 980HPA 30M/S= ** WTPQ31 RJTD 230000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.13 FOR TY 0614 YAGI (0614) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 230000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE. TY WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO EAST-NORTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 230000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 230000UTC 14.0N 112.0E POOR MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 1002HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 240000UTC 16.0N 110.5E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 06KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 230000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT N E 1.GENERAL COMMENTS POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 230000 UTC IS POOR. TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DECELERATE. TD WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE SPIRAL CLOUD BANDS HAVE BECOME WELL ORGANIZED AND CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTJP22 RJTD 230000 *** WARNING 230000. WARNING VALID 240000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0614 YAGI (0614) 940 HPA AT 28.5N 142.2E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTH 12 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 170 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 31.1N 143.6E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 34.1N 146.3E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 38.5N 155.5E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 43.5N 173.8E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTIN01 DEMS 230145 *** SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII(N) NORTH OF EQUATOR VALID FOR 24 HRS. FROM 2006 09 23 0100 UTC 23 SEP. 2006 PART-I :-EVENING'S CYCLONIC STORM (MUKDA) OVER EC ARABIAN SEA AND ADJOINING NE ARABIAN SEA INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM AND REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY CENTERED NEAR LAT. 20.5 DEG. N AND LONG. 66.5 DEG. ABOUT 350 KMS SW OF PORBANDER AND INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE SLOWLY IN A NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION TOWARDS GUJARAT COAST(.) NOTE-NEXT SPECIAL BULLETIN WILL ORIGINATE AT 0900 UTC ON DATED 23 RD IN ADDITION TO ROUTINE TWO DAILY BULLETINS. ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT ** WTSS20 VHHH 230145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 230000 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (13.8 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (113.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 240000 UTC ONE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (15.1 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (111.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250000 UTC ONE SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (16.4 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (109.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260000 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (17.2 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (105.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 230145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 230000 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (13.8 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (113.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 240000 UTC ONE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (15.1 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (111.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250000 UTC ONE SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (16.4 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (109.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260000 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (17.2 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (105.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. ** WTNT43 KNHC 230230 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 43 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 22 2006 HELENE IS LOOKING SOMEWHAT LESS TROPICAL IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING. ONLY LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS NEAR THE CENTER... WITH THE BULK OF THE COLDER TOPS NOW WELL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB...55 KT FROM AFWA...AND EXTRATROPICAL FROM SAB. QUIKSCAT DATA FROM 22Z SHOWED 50-60 KT WINDS SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...WITH ONE QUESTIONABLE-LOOKING 65 KT VECTOR IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. BASED ON THE AVAILABLE DATA...HELENE IS DOWNGRADED TO A 60-KT TROPICAL STORM. THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED CONSIDERABLY BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA. HELENE TURNED TO THE RIGHT BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z...BUT SINCE THEN LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE TURNING BACK TO THE LEFT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 070/20. HELENE SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD FOR 72 HR IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AFTER THAT TIME...THERE IS SERIOUS DIVERGENCE IN THE MODEL FORECASTS. THE 12Z ECMWF...THE 18Z GFS...AND THE 18Z NOGAPS ALL TURN HELENE SOUTHWARD AND PASS NEAR OR OVER THE AZORES. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 12Z UKMET...THE 18Z GFDL...AND THE 18Z GFS ENSEMBLE-MEAN ALL FORECAST HELENE TO CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD. SINCE THE 18Z GFS AND NOGAPS RUNS SHOW MAJOR CHANGES FROM THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS THAT TOOK HELENE NORTHEASTWARD...IT IS TOO SOON TO MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TRACK. THUS...THE NEW TRACK CALLS FOR A CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AFTER 72 HR. THE NEW TRACK IS SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WEST OF THE CENTER...SUGGESTING THE THE COLD FRONT THAT THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING TO INTERACT WITH THE STORM MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THIS HAS LED TO AN EARLIER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION THAN FORECAST 24-48 HR AGO. ALTHOUGH THE LARGE-SCALE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT HELENE MAY KEEP A WARM CORE OF SOME TYPE FOR THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL ENTRAIN INTO THE STORM TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 12-24 HR. HELENE WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN SOME AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW THROUGH 36 HR...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN THEREAFTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0300Z 36.0N 50.6W 60 KT 12HR VT 23/1200Z 37.0N 47.1W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 24/0000Z 38.5N 42.6W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 24/1200Z 40.0N 38.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 25/0000Z 42.1N 33.7W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 26/0000Z 45.5N 26.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 27/0000Z 49.0N 18.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 28/0000Z 53.0N 12.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTNT33 KNHC 230230 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 43 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 PM AST FRI SEP 22 2006 ...HELENE GRADUALLY LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.6 WEST OR ABOUT 850 MILES...1370 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1305 MILES... 2100 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES. HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT HELENE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...36.0 N...50.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTNT23 KNHC 230231 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 43 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 0300 UTC SAT SEP 23 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 50.6W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 90NE 135SE 50SW 90NW. 34 KT.......225NE 225SE 200SW 300NW. 12 FT SEAS..400NE 300SE 350SW 400NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 50.6W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 51.6W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 37.0N 47.1W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 135SE 75SW 90NW. 34 KT...225NE 240SE 200SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 38.5N 42.6W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 50 KT...100NE 135SE 120SW 150NW. 34 KT...225NE 240SE 240SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 40.0N 38.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 50 KT...120NE 135SE 120SW 150NW. 34 KT...300NE 300SE 240SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 42.1N 33.7W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. 34 KT...360NE 360SE 300SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 45.5N 26.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. 34 KT...360NE 360SE 300SW 300NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 49.0N 18.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 53.0N 12.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.0N 50.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTJP32 RJTD 230300 *** WARNING 230300. WARNING VALID 240300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0614 YAGI (0614) 940 HPA AT 29.2N 142.2E NORTH OF OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTH 11 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 170 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 231500UTC AT 31.9N 144.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240300UTC AT 35.0N 147.4E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 230300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0614 YAGI (0614) ANALYSIS PSTN 230300UTC 29.2N 142.2E GOOD MOVE N 11KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 100NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST 30KT 220NM SOUTHEAST 170NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 240300UTC 35.0N 147.4E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 20KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 250000UTC 38.5N 155.5E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 21KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 69HF 260000UTC 43.5N 173.8E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ20 RJTD 230300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 230300UTC 14.1N 111.8E POOR MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 1002HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 240300UTC 16.5N 109.5E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTSS20 VHHH 230445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 230300 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (13.8 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (113.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 240300 UTC ONE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (15.1 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (111.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250300 UTC ONE SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (16.5 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (108.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260300 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (17.2 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (105.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 230445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 230300 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (13.8 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (113.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 240300 UTC ONE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (15.1 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (111.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250300 UTC ONE SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (16.5 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (108.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260300 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (17.2 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (105.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTNT80 EGRR 230512 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 23.09.2006 TROPICAL STORM HELENE ANALYSED POSITION : 35.8N 52.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 23.09.2006 35.8N 52.0W INTENSE 12UTC 23.09.2006 36.6N 47.4W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.09.2006 37.8N 42.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 24.09.2006 39.4N 38.4W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.09.2006 41.1N 34.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.09.2006 41.8N 32.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.09.2006 41.5N 30.5W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 26.09.2006 39.5N 27.9W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 27.09.2006 37.4N 27.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.09.2006 34.0N 28.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.09.2006 30.9N 29.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.09.2006 28.6N 28.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2006 29.7N 27.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ANALYSED POSITION : 13.0N 176.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP022006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 23.09.2006 13.0N 176.8W WEAK 12UTC 23.09.2006 12.2N 179.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 230512