** WTIN01 DEMS 221800 *** SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET AREA VIII NORTH OF EQUATOR VALID FOR 24 HRS. FROM 2006 09 22 1800 UTC 22 SEP 2006 PART-I: THE CYCLONIC STORM (MUKDA)OVER EC ARABIAN SEA AND ADJOINING NE ARABIAN SEA REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY AND LAY CENTERED AT 1200 UTC OF 22ND NEAR LAT. 20.5 DEG N/LONG 66.5 DEG E ABOUT 350 KMS SW OF PORBANDER (.) IT IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE SLOWLY IN A NNE-LY DIRECTION TOWARDS GUJ. COAST (.) PART-II: THE OFFSHORE TROUGH AT SEA LEVEL FROM MAH. COAST TO KERALA COAST PERSISTS (.) WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET. AREA VIII(N) PART-III : FORECAST ARB-A1 ARABIAN SEA EQ. TO 10 DEG. N . WEST OF 80 DEG.E. I)WIND:-MAINLY SW 10/15 KTS (.) II) WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE N OF 05 DEG N(.) REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS (.) III) VISIBILITY:- POOR IN RAIN IV) STATE OF SEA :- SLIGHT(.) ARB-A2 ARABIAN SEA NORTH OF LAT. 10 DEG. NORTH I) WIND:-SW/W 50/55 KTS BEC CYCLONIC AROUND THE CENTRE OF LAT. 20.0 DEG. N/LONG. 66.0 DEG. E(.) II) WEATHER:- WIDE SPREAD RA/TS WITHIN THE RADIUS OF 200 KMS OF CYCLONIC STORM(.) III)VISIBILITY:- POOR IN RAIN (.) IV) STATE OF SEA:- HIGH TO VERY HIGH(.) BOB-A3 BAY OF BENGAL EQ. TO LAT. 10 DEG.N.EAST OF 80 DEG. EAST I)WIND :-MAINLY SW-LY 10/15 KTS (.) II) WEATHER :SCT- RA/TS TO THE E. OF 88 DEG. E (.) REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS (.) III) VISIBILITY:- POOR IN RAIN IV) STATE OF SEA:-SLIGHT(.) BOB-A4 BAY OF BENGAL NORTH OF LAT. 10 DEG. N I) WIND:- MAINLY SW 15/20 KTS(.) II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.) III) VISIBILITY:-POOR IN RAIN (.) IV) STATE OF SEA:- MODERATE (.) ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT ** WTNT80 EGRR 221759 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 22.09.2006 HURRICANE HELENE ANALYSED POSITION : 33.9N 54.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 22.09.2006 33.9N 54.4W INTENSE 00UTC 23.09.2006 36.8N 51.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 23.09.2006 37.2N 46.9W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 24.09.2006 38.4N 41.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.09.2006 39.6N 35.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.09.2006 41.1N 31.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.09.2006 43.3N 28.9W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.09.2006 44.2N 25.4W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 26.09.2006 45.8N 21.2W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 27.09.2006 49.6N 15.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2006 EXTRA-TROPICAL TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ANALYSED POSITION : 14.1N 173.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP022006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 22.09.2006 14.1N 173.6W WEAK 00UTC 23.09.2006 13.8N 177.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2006 13.6N 179.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2006 13.9N 177.9E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.09.2006 13.6N 175.3E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.09.2006 14.1N 173.4E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.09.2006 14.5N 170.7E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.09.2006 15.2N 168.4E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.09.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 221759 ** WTPQ20 BABJ 221800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST SUPER TY YAGI 0614 (0614) INITIAL TIME 221800 UTC 00HR 27.3N 141.9E 925HPA 60M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR N 25KM/H P+24HR 32.2N 142.8E 955HPA 50M/S P+48HR 37.4N 150.1E 970HPA 40M/S P+72HR 42.1N 163.2E 980HPA 30M/S= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 221800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0614 YAGI (0614) ANALYSIS PSTN 221800UTC 27.3N 141.9E GOOD MOVE N 10KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 090KT 50KT 90NM 30KT 220NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 231800UTC 32.3N 144.5E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 16KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 241800UTC 37.1N 151.9E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 19KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 72HF 251800UTC 42.8N 169.3E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP22 RJTD 221800 *** WARNING 221800. WARNING VALID 231800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0614 YAGI (0614) 930 HPA AT 27.3N 141.9E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 230600UTC AT 29.5N 142.6E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 32.3N 144.5E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 37.1N 151.9E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 42.8N 169.3E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 221800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 12 NAME TY 0614 YAGI ANALYSIS POSITION 221800UTC 27.3N 141.9E MOVEMENT N 13KT PRES/VMAX 930HPA 95KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 231800UTC 32.7N 144.2E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 945HPA 84KT 48HR POSITION 241800UTC 37.8N 152.1E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 64KT 72HR POSITION 251800UTC 42.5N 166.3E WITHIN 0NM PRES 990HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTSS20 VHHH 221945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 221800 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (13.6 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (113.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 231800 UTC ONE FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (15.0 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (111.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 241800 UTC ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (16.2 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (109.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251800 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (17.2 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (106.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 221945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 221800 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (13.6 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (113.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 231800 UTC ONE FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (15.0 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (111.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 241800 UTC ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (16.2 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (109.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251800 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (17.2 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (106.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. ** WTNT23 KNHC 222043 *** TCMAT3 HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 2100 UTC FRI SEP 22 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 53.0W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 45SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 75NE 90SE 30SW 75NW. 34 KT.......200NE 200SE 120SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS..400NE 300SE 350SW 400NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 53.0W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.9N 53.9W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 36.8N 50.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 120SE 75SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 240SE 200SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 38.4N 45.3W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 50 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. 34 KT...200NE 240SE 240SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 40.3N 40.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. 34 KT...300NE 300SE 240SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 42.2N 36.1W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. 34 KT...360NE 360SE 300SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 47.0N 28.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. 34 KT...360NE 360SE 300SW 300NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 51.0N 20.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 55.0N 14.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.4N 53.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB ** WTNT43 KNHC 222043 *** TCDAT3 HURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 42 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 500 PM EDT FRI SEP 22 2006 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF HELENE CONTINUES TO DEGRADE AS THE INNER CORE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOW PARTIALLY EXPOSED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KT...65 KT...AND 55 KT FROM TAFB...AFWA...AND SAB RESPECTIVELY. THE OVERALL SATELLITE EVOLUTION DURING THE DAY INDICATES THAT HELENE IS ENTERING THE EARLY STAGES OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. IN ADDITION TO DRY MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONE...THE OVERALL CLOUD SHIELD IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY DISPLACED NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT HELENE IS NOW STARTING TO INTERACT WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST TO ITS NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...DETERMINING WHEN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BE COMPLETE CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC. DESPITE THE RAPIDLY CHANGING STRUCTURE SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A SHALLOW WARM CORE CYCLONE...ALBEIT ASYMMETRIC...FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS. GIVING MORE WEIGHT TO THE RECENT TRENDS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY 24 HOURS...A LITTLE SOONER THAN BEFORE. ONCE HELENE TRANSFORMS INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...BAROCLINIC ENERGY COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE RESTRENGTHENING...AND HELENE IS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BE A LARGE AND POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...HELENE IS EXPECTED TO LOSE SOME OF ITS BAROCLINIC SUPPORT AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. HELENE CONTINUES TO ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE MIDDLE LATITUDE WESTERLIES...RESULTING IN ACCELERATION NORTHEASTWARD. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 050/18. TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED NOTICEABLY TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE ANTICIPATED A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO THAT NEVER MATERIALIZED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MORE CONSERVATIVELY SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH...NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2100Z 35.4N 53.0W 65 KT 12HR VT 23/0600Z 36.8N 50.1W 60 KT 24HR VT 23/1800Z 38.4N 45.3W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 24/0600Z 40.3N 40.5W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 24/1800Z 42.2N 36.1W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 25/1800Z 47.0N 28.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 26/1800Z 51.0N 20.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 27/1800Z 55.0N 14.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB ** WTNT33 KNHC 222047 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 42 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 500 PM AST FRI SEP 22 2006 ...HELENE WEAKENS BUT REMAINS A HURRICANE... AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.0 WEST OR ABOUT 710 MILES... 1140 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT HELENE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...35.4 N...53.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB ** WTCA43 TJSJ 222104 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN HELENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 42 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL082006 500 PM AST VIERNES 22 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...HELENE SE DEBILITA PERO PERMANECE UN HURACAN... A LAS 500 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN HELENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 35.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 53.0 OESTE O COMO A 710 MILLAS...1140 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-NORESTE DE BERMUDA. HELENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 21 MPH...33 KM/HR Y SE ESPERA UN AUMENTO GRADUAL DE VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 75 MPH...120 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO DE FUERZA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...PERO SE ESPERA QUE HELENE PIERDA SUS CARACTERISTICOS TROPICALES GRADUALMENTE DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA O DOS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA UNAS 50 MILLAS...85 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 230 MILLAS...370 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA FUE DE 980 MILIBARAS...28.94 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 PM AST...35.4 NORTE...53.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORESTE A CERCA DE 21 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...75 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...980 MILIBARAS. $$ PRONOSTICADOR RHOME/KNABB ** WTPQ21 RJTD 222100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0614 YAGI (0614) ANALYSIS PSTN 222100UTC 28.1N 142.1E GOOD MOVE N 12KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 210NM EAST 170NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 232100UTC 33.1N 145.2E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 17KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 241800UTC 37.1N 151.9E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 19KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 69HF 251800UTC 42.8N 169.3E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP32 RJTD 222100 *** WARNING 222100. WARNING VALID 232100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0614 YAGI (0614) 935 HPA AT 28.1N 142.1E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTH 12 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 170 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 230900UTC AT 30.3N 142.9E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 232100UTC AT 33.1N 145.2E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 222245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 222100 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (13.8 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (113.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 232100 UTC ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (15.3 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (111.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 242100 UTC ONE SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (16.8 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (108.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 252100 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (17.7 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (106.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 222245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 222100 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (13.8 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (113.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 232100 UTC ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (15.3 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (111.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 242100 UTC ONE SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (16.8 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (108.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 252100 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (17.7 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (106.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.