** WTIN20 DEMS 220645 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 22-09-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTH EAST BAY,NORTH ANDAMAN SEA NORTH EAST ARABIAN SEA AND PARTS OF WEST AND EAST CENTRAL BAY,AND SOUTH EAST AND EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 21 DEG NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????/ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 220600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST SUPER TY YAGI 0614 (0614) INITIAL TIME 220600 UTC 00HR 25.0N 142.6E 910HPA 65M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR NW 25KM/H P+24HR 29.7N 140.8E 920HPA 60M/S P+48HR 34.3N 144.7E 930HPA 55M/S P+72HR 39.3N 153.8E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 220600 *** WARNING 220600. WARNING VALID 230600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0614 YAGI (0614) 915 HPA AT 25.0N 142.5E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHWEST 16 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 221800UTC AT 27.2N 141.6E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 230600UTC AT 30.0N 142.5E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 34.5N 147.5E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 38.3N 156.2E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 220600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0614 YAGI (0614) ANALYSIS PSTN 220600UTC 25.0N 142.5E GOOD MOVE NW 16KT PRES 915HPA MXWD 105KT 50KT 100NM 30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 230600UTC 30.0N 142.5E 90NM 70% MOVE NNE 14KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 090KT 48HF 240600UTC 34.5N 147.5E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 16KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 72HF 250600UTC 38.3N 156.2E 290NM 70% MOVE NE 20KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 220600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 11 NAME TY 0614 YAGI ANALYSIS POSITION 220600UTC 25.0N 142.5E MOVEMENT NW 15KT PRES/VMAX 915HPA 105KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 230600UTC 29.8N 141.9E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 930HPA 95KT 48HR POSITION 240600UTC 34.7N 146.4E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT 72HR POSITION 250600UTC 39.1N 153.9E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 64KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTKO20 RKSL 220600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 11 NAME TY 0614 YAGI ANALYSIS POSITION 220600UTC 25.0N 142.5E MOVEMENT NW 15KT PRES/VMAX 915HPA 105KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 230600UTC 29.8N 141.9E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 930HPA 95KT 48HR POSITION 240600UTC 34.7N 146.4E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT 72HR POSITION 250600UTC 39.1N 153.9E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 64KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ31 RJTD 220600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.12 FOR TY 0614 YAGI (0614) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 220600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE. TY WILL RECURVE WITHIN 24 HOURS FROM 220600 UTC. TY WILL LOOP FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE NORTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN32 PGTW 220900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. SUPER TYPHOON 16W (YAGI) WARNING NR 022 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220600Z --- NEAR 25.0N 142.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 25.0N 142.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 27.5N 141.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 30.2N 141.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 32.9N 143.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 19 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 35.8N 146.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 25 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 40.8N 157.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 220900Z POSITION NEAR 25.6N 142.2E. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 16W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM EAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.// BT #0001 ** WTIO31 PGTW 220900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (MUKDA) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220600Z --- NEAR 20.1N 66.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.1N 66.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 20.1N 66.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 19.8N 66.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 19.5N 66.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 19.4N 66.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 220900Z POSITION NEAR 20.1N 66.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS BEEN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 220415Z SSMI IMAGE REVEALS THAT TC 04A HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS AND SHOWS TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING. SATELLITE AN- ALYSIS INDICATES AN IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT. CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST BASED ON TYPICAL CLIMATOLOGY FOR SIMILAR MIDGET SYSTEMS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z AND 230900Z.// BT #0001 ** WTNT43 KNHC 220851 *** TCDAT3 HURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 40 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 500 AM EDT FRI SEP 22 2006 THE INFRARED SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF HELENE HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH THE EYE REMAINING CLOUD-OBSCURED. A 22/0518Z AQUA-1 OVERPASS INDICATED HELENE HAD RETAINED GOOD LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE...ALTHOUGH THE MID-LEVEL HAD ERODED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT T4.5/77 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 75 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/13. HELENE IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AS A DEEP-LAYER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ALONG 65W LONGITUDE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE CYCLONE. HELENE SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE AT A MORE RAPID PACE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE HURRICANE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH LOCATED TO THE WEST. BY 48 HOURS... HELENE IS EXPECTED TO PHASE UP WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND REMAINS NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND SIMILAR TO THE NOGAPS MODEL...WHICH PERFORMED WELL WITH GORDON. INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND DECREASING SSTS WILL LIMIT ANY INTENSIFICATION TO THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...BEFORE SLOW WEAKENING BEGINS AFTER THAT. HOWEVER...HELENE WILL BE PHASING UP WITH A STRONG NEGATIVELY-TILTED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IN 36-48 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD HELP THE SYSTEM EVOLVE INTO A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL MODEL STRENGTHENS THE EXTRATROPICAL- HELENE CIRCULATION TO 108 KT BY 72 HOURS. WHILE THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS IS LIKELY BEING OVERDONE BY THE MODEL OVERDONE...IT IS LIKELY A REASONABLE INDICATOR THAT HELENE WILL EVOLVE INTO A FORMIDABLE EXTRATROPICAL LOW...PROBABLY STRONGER THAN THE EXTRATROPICAL-GORDON CIRCULATION DID YESTERDAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0900Z 32.9N 55.2W 75 KT 12HR VT 22/1800Z 35.0N 53.0W 75 KT 24HR VT 23/0600Z 37.6N 48.5W 70 KT 36HR VT 23/1800Z 40.3N 43.0W 65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 24/0600Z 43.0N 37.6W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 25/0600Z 47.0N 30.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 26/0600Z 51.5N 22.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 27/0600Z 58.0N 15.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTNT23 KNHC 220852 *** TCMAT3 HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 55.2W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......180NE 200SE 200SW 175NW. 12 FT SEAS..400NE 300SE 350SW 350NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 55.2W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 55.8W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 35.0N 53.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 175SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 37.6N 48.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 175SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 40.3N 43.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...225NE 225SE 200SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 43.0N 37.6W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. 34 KT...225NE 225SE 225SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 47.0N 30.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...120NE 150SE 150SW 120NW. 34 KT...240NE 300SE 300SW 240NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 51.5N 22.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 58.0N 15.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.9N 55.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTNT33 KNHC 220854 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 500 AM AST FRI SEP 22 2006 ...HELENE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN CENTRAL ATLANTIC... AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.2 WEST OR ABOUT 560 MILES... 900 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA. HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HELENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...32.9 N...55.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTCA43 TJSJ 220859 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN HELENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 40 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL082006 500 AM AST VIERNES 22 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...HELENE SE MUEVE AL NORESTE SOBRE EL ATLANTICO CENTRAL... A LAS 500 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN HELENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 32.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 55.2 OESTE O COMO A 560 MILLAS...900 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE BERMUDA. HELENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH...24 KM/HR Y SE ESPERA UN AUMENTO DE VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 85 MPH...140 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. HELENE ES UN HURACAN DE CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA POCO DE FORTALECIMIENTO EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA UNAS 40 MILLAS...65 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 230 MILLAS...370 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA FUE DE 970 MILIBARAS...28.70 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 AM AST...32.9 NORTE...55.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...85 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...970 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR STEWART ** WTCA43 TJSJ 220900 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN HELENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 40 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL082006 500 AM AST VIERNES 22 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...HELENE SE MUEVE AL NORESTE SOBRE EL ATLANTICO CENTRAL... A LAS 500 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN HELENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 32.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 55.2 OESTE O COMO A 560 MILLAS...900 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE BERMUDA. HELENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH...24 KM/HR Y SE ESPERA UN AUMENTO DE VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 85 MPH...140 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. HELENE ES UN HURACAN DE CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA POCO DE FORTALECIMIENTO EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA UNAS 40 MILLAS...65 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 230 MILLAS...370 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA FUE DE 970 MILIBARAS...28.70 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 AM AST...32.9 NORTE...55.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...85 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...970 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR STEWART ** WTIN01 DEMS 220900 *** SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N) NORTH OF EQUATOR VALID FOR 24 HOURS FROM 2006 09 22 0900 UTC 22 SEP 2006 PART - I :THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER E.C. ARABIAN SEA HAS FURTHER INTENSIFIED IN TO A CYCLONIC STORM (MUKDA) AND NOW LIES CENTERED AT 0300 UTC OF 22 SEPT WITHIN HALF DEG OF LAT 22.0 DEG N/ LONG 66.0 DEG E ABOUT 400 KMS SW OF PORBANDAR LIKELY TO INTENSY FURTHER AND MOVE INITIALY IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION(.) PART-II:THE DEP OVER JHRKHND MOVED SLIGHTLY NW-WARD AND NOW LIES CENTERED AT 0300 UTC OF 22ND SEPT OVER JHARKHAND ABOUT 50 KMS EAST OF RANCHI (.)SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A NNW-LY DIRECTION AND WEAKENED GRADUALLY (.) THE OFFSHORE TROUGH AT SEA LEVEL FROM MAH.COAST TO KERALA COAST PERSISTS(.) WEATHER SEASONAL OVER MET AREA VIII(N)(.) PART - III: FORECAST ARB-A1 ARABIAN SEA EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N WEST OF 80 DEG.E. I) WIND: MAINLY SW 10/15 KTS (.) II)WEATHER:FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE N OF 05 DEG N(.) REST AREA SCATTERED RA/TS(.) III)VISIBILITY: POOR IN RA/TS (.) IV) STATE OF SEA: SLIGHT (.) ARB-A2 ARABIAN SEA NORTH OF 10 DEG. NORTH I) WIND: SW/W 40/45 KTS BEC CYCLONIC AROUND THE CENTRE OF LAT 20.0 DEG N/LONG 66.0 DEG E(.) II) WEATHER:WIDESPREAD RA/TS WITHIN THE RADIUS OF 200 KMS OF CYCLONIC STORM(.) III)VISIBILITY: POOR IN RA/TS (.) IV) STATE OF SEA: HIGH(.) BOB-A3 BAY OF BENGAL EQUATOR TO 10 DEG.N. EAST OF 80 DEG.E. I) WIND:MAINLY SW-LY 10/15 KTS(.) II) WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS TO THE E OF 88 DEG E (.) REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS (.) III)VISIBILITY: POOR IN RA/TS (.) IV) STATE OF SEA:SLIGHT (.) BOB-A4 BAY OF BENGAL NORTH OF 10 DEG. NORTH I) WIND: MAINLY SW 15/20 KTS (.) II) WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.) III)VISIBILITY: POOR IN RA/TS (.) IV) STATE OF SEA: MODERATE (.) ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT ** WTPQ32 PGUM 220933 *** TCPPQ2 BULLETIN SUPER TYPHOON YAGI (16W) ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 PM GUAM LST FRI SEP 22 2006 ...SUPER TYPHOON YAGI CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF SUPER TYPHOON YAGI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 142.2 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 520 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF AGRIHAN 570 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PAGAN 595 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN 760 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN 855 MILES NORTH OF GUAM. SUPER TYPHOON YAGI IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 18 MPH. YAGI IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. YAGI IS CURRENTLY A CATEGORY 5 SUPER TYPHOON WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 160 MPH. YAGI IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 155 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...25.6 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 142.2 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 18 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 160 MPH. THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ON SUPER TYPHOON YAGI. $$ HENDRICKS ** WTJP32 RJTD 220900 *** WARNING 220900. WARNING VALID 230900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0614 YAGI (0614) 915 HPA AT 25.5N 142.3E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 222100UTC AT 27.9N 141.6E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 230900UTC AT 30.6N 142.9E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 220900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0614 YAGI (0614) ANALYSIS PSTN 220900UTC 25.5N 142.3E GOOD MOVE NNW 12KT PRES 915HPA MXWD 105KT 50KT 100NM 30KT 200NM EAST 180NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 230900UTC 30.6N 142.9E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 14KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 090KT 45HF 240600UTC 34.5N 147.5E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 16KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 69HF 250600UTC 38.3N 156.2E 290NM 70% MOVE NE 20KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTIN20 DEMS 220000 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING RSMC NEW DELHI (NWP) F/C 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE -MUKDA- WARNING NR 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ARABIAN SEA INITIAL POSITION 220000Z NEAR 20.0N 66.0E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 45 KTS MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS 030 DEG AT 4 KTS FORECAST 06 HRS VALID AT: 220600 20.3N 66.0E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 45 KTS 12 HRS VALID AT: 221200 20.3N 66.0E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 45 KTS 18 HRS VALID AT: 221800 20.3N 66.0E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 50 KTS 24 HRS VALID AT: 230000 21.0N 66.3E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 55 KTS 30 HRS VALID AT: 230600 21.0N 67.0E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 55 KTS 36 HRS VALID AT: 231200 21.3N 67.0E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 60 KTS 42 HRS VALID AT: 231800 21.5N 67.0E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 65 KTS 48 HRS VALID AT: 240000 21.5N 67.0E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 65 KTS NEXT WARNING AT 221800