** WTPQ20 BABJ 220000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST SUPER TY YAGI 0614 (0614) INITIAL TIME 220000 UTC 00HR 23.7N 143.6E 920HPA 60M/S 30KTS 320KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR NW 30KM/H P+24HR 28.3N 140.4E 920HPA 60M/S P+48HR 33.0N 143.9E 930HPA 55M/S P+72HR 38.5N 150.6E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 220000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0614 YAGI (0614) ANALYSIS PSTN 220000UTC 23.7N 143.6E GOOD MOVE NW 15KT PRES 915HPA MXWD 105KT 50KT 100NM 30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 230000UTC 28.1N 141.4E 90NM 70% MOVE N 11KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 095KT 48HF 240000UTC 33.0N 144.4E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 13KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 72HF 250000UTC 37.0N 151.0E 290NM 70% MOVE NE 16KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTJP22 RJTD 220000 *** WARNING 220000. WARNING VALID 230000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0614 YAGI (0614) 915 HPA AT 23.7N 143.6E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHWEST 15 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 25.8N 141.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 230000UTC AT 28.1N 141.4E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 33.0N 144.4E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 37.0N 151.0E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ31 RJTD 220000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.11 FOR TY 0614 YAGI (0614) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 220000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN DECELERATE. TY WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NORTH. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTNT23 KNHC 220239 *** TCMAT3 HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 0300 UTC FRI SEP 22 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 56.3W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......180NE 200SE 200SW 175NW. 12 FT SEAS..400NE 300SE 350SW 350NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 56.3W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 56.7W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 33.6N 54.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 175SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 36.3N 51.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 175SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 38.9N 45.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...225NE 225SE 200SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 41.7N 40.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. 34 KT...225NE 225SE 225SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 47.0N 30.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...120NE 150SE 150SW 120NW. 34 KT...240NE 300SE 300SW 240NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 51.5N 23.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 58.0N 17.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 56.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN ** WTNT43 KNHC 220239 *** TCDAT3 HURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 39 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 PM EDT THU SEP 21 2006 THE SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF HELENE HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND COLD CLOUD TOPS HAVE EXPANDED AND BECOME MORE CONCENTRIC AROUND THE CENTER. DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 4.5 OR 77 KT FOR BOTH TAFB AND AFWA. ACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN BUMPED UP TO 75 KT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. HELENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 26C TO 27C WATER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO WITH ONLY A MARGINAL INCREASE IN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THIS SHOULD KEEP HELENE IN A STEADY STATE FOR THE NEXT DAY. AFTER WHICH...VERY SLOW WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS HELENE TRANSITIONS INTO A POTENTIALLY STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 2 TO 3 DAYS...AS COLD AIR BECOMES ENTRAINED INTO THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OR 015/12. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD DEEP-LAYER TROUGH RACING EASTWARD TOWARD HELENE WITH A DRY PUNCH OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS TROUGH WILL HELP ACCELERATE HELENE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...THEN THE MODELS DIVERGE A BIT AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AS HELENE BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. THE UKMET IS THE GREATEST OUTLIER AND TAKES HELENE TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY TO THE SOUTH...AND SHIFTS THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE TO THE SOUTH AS WELL. THE GFS HAS A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK WHILE THE GFDL...NOGAPS...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE TAKE THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BUT REMAINS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT DATA FROM A 2226 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0300Z 31.8N 56.3W 75 KT 12HR VT 22/1200Z 33.6N 54.8W 75 KT 24HR VT 23/0000Z 36.3N 51.2W 75 KT 36HR VT 23/1200Z 38.9N 45.9W 70 KT 48HR VT 24/0000Z 41.7N 40.0W 65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 25/0000Z 47.0N 30.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 26/0000Z 51.5N 23.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 27/0000Z 58.0N 17.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN ** WTNT33 KNHC 220239 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 PM AST THU SEP 21 2006 ...HELENE SLIGHTLY STRONGER MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.3 WEST OR ABOUT 500 MILES... 805 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA. HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR ...AND A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST...WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HELENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...31.8 N...56.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN ** WTPN32 PGTW 220300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. SUPER TYPHOON 16W (YAGI) WARNING NR 021 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220000Z --- NEAR 23.7N 143.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.7N 143.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 25.9N 141.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 28.1N 141.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 30.7N 142.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 16 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 33.5N 144.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 21 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 39.1N 151.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 29 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 41.7N 166.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 220300Z POSITION NEAR 24.2N 143.1E. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 16W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z.// ** WTIO31 PGTW 220300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220000Z --- NEAR 20.0N 66.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 66.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 19.8N 66.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 19.7N 66.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 19.5N 66.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 19.2N 66.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 220300Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 66.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 01 KNOT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 212107Z AMSR-E PASS INDICATES THAT TC 04A HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS AND SHOWS TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A FORMATIVE EYE. SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATES AN IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT. CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST BASED ON TYPICAL CLIMATOLOGY FOR SIMILAR MIDGET SYSTEMS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z AND 230300Z.// ** WTCA43 TJSJ 220303 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN HELENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 39 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 PM AST JUEVES 21 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...HELENE SE MUEVE AL NORTE SOBRE EL ATLANTICO CENTRAL... A LAS 500 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN HELENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 31.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 56.3 OESTE O COMO A 500 MILLAS...805 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE BERMUDA. HELENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH...22 KM/HR Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL AL NOR NORESTE Y UN AUMENTO DE VELOCIDAD DE MOVIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 85 MPH...140 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA POCO DE FORTALECIMIENTO EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA UNAS 40 MILLAS...65 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 230 MILLAS...370 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA FUE DE 970 MILIBARAS...28.70 PULGADAS. AUNQUE SE ESPERA QUE HELENE PASE A VARIAS CIENTAS DE MILLAS AL ESTE DE BERMUDA ESTA NOCHE...GRANDES MAREJADAS EN EL OCEANO PRODUCIRAN CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DE RESACA QUE PODRIAN AFECTAR AL AREA DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS VARIOS DIAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 PM AST...31.8 NORTE...56.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...80 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...970 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR MAINELLI/BEVEN ** WTJP32 RJTD 220300 *** WARNING 220300. WARNING VALID 230300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0614 YAGI (0614) 915 HPA AT 24.4N 143.0E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHWEST 16 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 221500UTC AT 26.4N 141.6E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 230300UTC AT 29.1N 141.8E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 220300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0614 YAGI (0614) ANALYSIS PSTN 220300UTC 24.4N 143.0E GOOD MOVE NW 16KT PRES 915HPA MXWD 105KT 50KT 100NM 30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 230300UTC 29.1N 141.8E 90NM 70% MOVE N 12KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 095KT 45HF 240000UTC 33.0N 144.4E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 13KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 69HF 250000UTC 37.0N 151.0E 290NM 70% MOVE NE 16KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTPQ32 PGUM 220355 *** TCPPQ2 BULLETIN SUPER TYPHOON YAGI (16W) ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 200 PM GUAM LST FRI SEP 22 2006 ...SUPER TYPHOON YAGI CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF SUPER TYPHOON YAGI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 143.1 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 410 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF AGRIHAN 455 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PAGAN 485 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN 650 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN 750 MILES NORTH OF GUAM. SUPER TYPHOON YAGI IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH. YAGI IS EXPECTED TO TURN GRADUALLY NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. YAGI IS CURRENTLY A CATEGORY 5 SUPER TYPHOON WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 160 MPH. YAGI IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...24.2 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 143.1 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 160 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 PM GUAM LST. $$ AHN ** WTNT80 EGRR 220521 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 22.09.2006 HURRICANE HELENE ANALYSED POSITION : 31.2N 56.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 22.09.2006 31.2N 56.9W INTENSE 12UTC 22.09.2006 33.5N 55.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2006 35.4N 52.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 23.09.2006 36.6N 48.0W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.09.2006 38.1N 42.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.09.2006 38.8N 38.0W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.09.2006 41.4N 33.0W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.09.2006 43.4N 29.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.09.2006 46.6N 24.9W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 26.09.2006 50.1N 19.5W EXTRA-TROPICAL THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 220521 ** WTPN21 PGTW 220530 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 220521Z SEP 06// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A 225 NM RADIUS OF 13.7N 114.7E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 220230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 114.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY NEAR 13.6N 115.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 115.6E, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 212148Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE INDICATE ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER A BROAD BUT SYMETRICAL LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 220033Z TRMM IMAGE REVEALS CONVECTION BEGINNING TO BAND TOWARD THE LLCC. THE MOST RECENT QUIKSCAT IMAGERY SHOWS THE CIRCULATION HAS CHAR- ACTERISTICS OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION. HIGHEST WINDS ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 230530Z.//