** WTPQ20 BABJ 211800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST SUPER TY YAGI 0614 (0614) INITIAL TIME 211800 UTC 00HR 22.6N 144.8E 920HPA 60M/S 30KTS 320KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR WNW 30KM/H P+24HR 26.2N 140.8E 920HPA 60M/S P+48HR 31.4N 142.5E 930HPA 55M/S P+72HR 38.1N 149.3E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 211800 *** WARNING 211800. WARNING VALID 221800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0614 YAGI (0614) 910 HPA AT 22.6N 144.8E SOUTHEAST OF OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHWEST 17 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 221800UTC AT 26.9N 141.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 31.6N 143.2E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 36.6N 149.0E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 211800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0614 YAGI (0614) ANALYSIS PSTN 211800UTC 22.6N 144.8E GOOD MOVE NW 17KT PRES 910HPA MXWD 110KT 50KT 90NM 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 221800UTC 26.9N 141.4E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 13KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 100KT 48HF 231800UTC 31.6N 143.2E 160NM 70% MOVE N 12KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 72HF 241800UTC 36.6N 149.0E 290NM 70% MOVE NE 17KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 211800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 10 NAME TY 0614 YAGI ANALYSIS POSITION 211800UTC 22.6N 144.8E MOVEMENT NW 17KT PRES/VMAX 910HPA 111KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 221800UTC 26.4N 141.0E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 920HPA 107KT 48HR POSITION 231800UTC 31.2N 142.3E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 930HPA 95KT 72HR POSITION 241800UTC 36.1N 147.5E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN32 PGTW 212100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 16W (YAGI) WARNING NR 020 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 211800Z --- NEAR 22.6N 144.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 17 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.6N 144.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 24.5N 142.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 26.4N 141.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 28.7N 140.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 31.5N 142.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 37.4N 147.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 28 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 41.9N 161.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 212100Z POSITION NEAR 23.1N 144.1E. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 16W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM SOUTHEAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 212100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. SUPER TYPHOON 16W (YAGI) WARNING NR 020 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 211800Z --- NEAR 22.6N 144.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 17 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.6N 144.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 24.5N 142.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 26.4N 141.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 28.7N 140.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 31.5N 142.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 37.4N 147.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 28 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 41.9N 161.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 212100Z POSITION NEAR 23.1N 144.1E. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 16W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM SOUTHEAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z.// ** WTNT43 KNHC 212036 *** TCDAT3 HURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 38 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 500 PM EDT THU SEP 21 2006 A 1531 UTC TRMM MICROWAVE OVERPASS INDICATED THAT BANDING FEATURES WERE CONFINED TO THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF HELENE. WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...HELENE'S APPEARANCE IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS IMPROVED A LITTLE WITH AN AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS EXPANDING OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST DOES NOT ANTICIPATE WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS HELENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF ONLY MODEST SHEAR AND OVER 26 TO 27C WATER. THEREAFTER...HELENE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS SHEAR INCREASES AND SSTS COOL. THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR HELENE TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST DURING THE EXTRATROPICAL PHASE IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODELS MORE CLOSELY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/12. HELENE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE HURRICANE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT HELENE SHOULD VERY SOON ROUND THE RIDGE AND TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS HELENE BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL THE TRACK MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE UKMET TURNS THE CYCLONE EASTWARD...WHILE THE GFS TAKE IT QUICKLY NORTHWARD MERGING IT WITH A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES IN BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS AND IS CLOSE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE TRACK SHOWN BY THE ECMWF TRACK...BUT IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE LATER MODEL. EVEN THOUGH HELENE IS FORECAST TO RECURVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...SOME LONG PERIOD SWELLS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA AND BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/2100Z 30.7N 56.8W 70 KT 12HR VT 22/0600Z 32.7N 55.9W 70 KT 24HR VT 22/1800Z 35.4N 53.2W 70 KT 36HR VT 23/0600Z 37.9N 49.1W 70 KT 48HR VT 23/1800Z 40.7N 43.7W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 24/1800Z 46.5N 32.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 25/1800Z 52.0N 23.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 26/1800Z 58.0N 18.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER BROWN ** WTNT23 KNHC 212036 *** TCMAT3 HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 2100 UTC THU SEP 21 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 56.8W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......200NE 200SE 175SW 175NW. 12 FT SEAS..400NE 300SE 300SW 350NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 56.8W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 57.0W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 32.7N 55.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 175SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 35.4N 53.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 175SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 37.9N 49.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...225NE 225SE 200SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 40.7N 43.7W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. 34 KT...225NE 225SE 225SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 46.5N 32.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...120NE 150SE 150SW 120NW. 34 KT...240NE 300SE 300SW 240NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 52.0N 23.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 58.0N 18.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.7N 56.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA ** WTNT33 KNHC 212037 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 500 PM AST THU SEP 21 2006 ...HELENE MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.... AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.8 WEST OR ABOUT 485 MILES... 780 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA. HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST...WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB...28.70 INCHES. ALTHOUGH HELENE WILL BE PASSING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA TONIGHT...LARGE OCEAN SWELLS PRODUCING HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS COULD AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...30.7 N...56.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA ** WTCA43 TJSJ 212056 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN HELENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 38 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL082006 500 PM AST MIERCOLES 20 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...HELENE SE MUEVE AL NORTE SOBRE EL ATLANTICO CENTRAL... A LAS 500 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN HELENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 30.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 56.8 OESTE O COMO A 485 MILLAS...780 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE BERMUDA. HELENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH...22 KM/HR Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL AL NOR NORESTE Y UN AUMENTO DE VELOCIDAD DE MOVIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 80 MPH...130 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA POCO DE FORTALECIMIENTO EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA UNAS 35 MILLAS...55 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 230 MILLAS...370 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA FUE DE 970 MILIBARAS...28.70 PULGADAS. AUNQUE SE ESPERA QUE HELENE PASE A VARIAS CIENTAS DE MILLAS AL ESTE DE BERMUDA ESTA NOCHE...GRANDES MAREJADAS EN EL OCEANO PRODUCIRAN CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DE RESACA QUE PODRIAN AFECTAR AL AREA DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS VARIOS DIAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 PM AST...30.7 NORTE...56.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...80 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...972 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BROWN/AVILA ** WTPQ21 RJTD 212100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0614 YAGI (0614) ANALYSIS PSTN 212100UTC 23.2N 144.2E GOOD MOVE NW 16KT PRES 910HPA MXWD 110KT 50KT 90NM 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 222100UTC 27.6N 141.3E 80NM 70% MOVE NNW 12KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 100KT 45HF 231800UTC 31.6N 143.2E 160NM 70% MOVE N 12KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 69HF 241800UTC 36.6N 149.0E 290NM 70% MOVE NE 17KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTJP32 RJTD 212100 *** WARNING 212100. WARNING VALID 222100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0614 YAGI (0614) 910 HPA AT 23.2N 144.2E SOUTHEAST OF OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHWEST 16 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 220900UTC AT 25.2N 142.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 222100UTC AT 27.6N 141.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ32 PGUM 212149 *** TCPPQ2 BULLETIN SUPER TYPHOON YAGI (16W) ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 AM GUAM LST FRI SEP 22 2006 ...SUPER TYPHOON YAGI CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE MARIANA ISLANDS... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF SUPER TYPHOON YAGI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 144.1 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 315 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF AGRIHAN 360 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PAGAN 390 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN 560 MILES NORTH OF SAIPAN 670 MILES NORTH OF GUAM. SUPER TYPHOON YAGI IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH. YAGI IS EXPECTED TO TURN GRADUALLY NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THOUGH A SUPER TYPHOON...YAGI REMAINS A CATEGORY 5 TYPHOON WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 160 MPH. TYPHOON YAGI IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...23.1 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 144.1 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 160 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 PM GUAM LST. $$ ZIOBRO