** WTSR20 WSSS 210600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 211200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST SUPER TY YAGI 0614 (0614) INITIAL TIME 211200 UTC 00HR 21.5N 146.2E 925HPA 55M/S 30KTS 320KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR WNW 30KM/H P+24HR 24.6N 141.7E 920HPA 60M/S P+48HR 29.0N 141.4E 920HPA 60M/S P+72HR 35.0N 144.0E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 211200 *** WARNING 211200. WARNING VALID 221200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0614 YAGI (0614) 920 HPA AT 21.5N 146.2E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 16 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 170 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 24.9N 141.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 29.8N 141.4E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 35.9N 147.0E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 211200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0614 YAGI (0614) ANALYSIS PSTN 211200UTC 21.5N 146.2E GOOD MOVE WNW 16KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 170NM FORECAST 24HF 221200UTC 24.9N 141.6E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 13KT PRES 910HPA MXWD 110KT 48HF 231200UTC 29.8N 141.4E 150NM 70% MOVE N 12KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 72HF 241200UTC 35.9N 147.0E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 19KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTPN32 PGTW 211500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. SUPER TYPHOON 16W (YAGI) WARNING NR 019 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 211200Z --- NEAR 21.5N 146.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.5N 146.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 23.1N 143.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 25.0N 141.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 27.0N 140.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 29.2N 140.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 34.8N 144.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 24 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 40.2N 154.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 211500Z POSITION NEAR 21.9N 145.6E. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 16W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM SOUTHEAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z.// ** WTIN20 DEMS 211428 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 21-09-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 1500 UTC (.) MORNING'S DEPRESSION OVER EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY AND INTENSIFIED INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION.IT LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC NEAR LAT. 19.5 DEG. N AND LONG. 66.0 DEG. E, ABOUT 450 KMS SOUTHWEST OF PORBANDER (42830). IT IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE INITIALLY A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEEP DEPRESSION. CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE ALSO SEEN OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AS WELL AS OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA (.) MSG OVER ????? ** WTNT43 KNHC 211446 *** TCDAT3 HURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 37 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 AM EDT THU SEP 21 2006 THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE WITH THE COLDEST CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS LOCATED PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF HELENE. CONSEQUENTLY...DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED. USING A BLEND OF THE DVORAK DATA T...AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS YIELDS AN INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 70 KT. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IT APPEARS THAT SOME MID-LEVEL SHEAR IS AFFECTING THE HURRICANE. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND HELENE WILL BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS. ACCORDINGLY...THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE DO NOT RESTRENGTHEN HELENE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL NOT EITHER. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE CLOSELY THROUGH 72 HOURS...THEREAFTER IT IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE GUIDANCE AS HELENE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 005/11. HELENE IS CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED WELL EAST OF THE HURRICANE. HELENE IS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH THAT IS MOVING OFF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST. THE GFDL REMAINS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE WHILE THE UKMET AND ECMWF ARE ON THE EASTERN SIDE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE. EVEN THOUGH HELENE IS FORECAST TO RECURVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...SOME LONG PERIOD SWELLS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA AND BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/1500Z 29.6N 56.9W 70 KT 12HR VT 22/0000Z 31.4N 56.3W 70 KT 24HR VT 22/1200Z 34.1N 54.5W 70 KT 36HR VT 23/0000Z 36.8N 51.2W 70 KT 48HR VT 23/1200Z 39.6N 46.6W 65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 24/1200Z 45.2N 36.4W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 25/1200Z 49.5N 28.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 26/1200Z 54.0N 20.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA ** WTNT23 KNHC 211446 *** TCMAT3 HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1500 UTC THU SEP 21 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 56.9W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......175NE 175SE 175SW 175NW. 12 FT SEAS..400NE 300SE 300SW 350NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 56.9W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 57.0W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 31.4N 56.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 175SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 34.1N 54.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 175SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 36.8N 51.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 175SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 39.6N 46.6W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. 34 KT...225NE 225SE 200SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 45.2N 36.4W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...120NE 150SE 150SW 120NW. 34 KT...240NE 300SE 300SW 240NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 49.5N 28.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 54.0N 20.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.6N 56.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA ** WTNT33 KNHC 211448 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 AM AST THU SEP 21 2006 ...HELENE WEAKENS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...NO THREAT TO LAND... AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.9 WEST OR ABOUT 505 MILES... 810 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST...WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. ALTHOUGH HELENE IS EXPECTED TO PASS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA...LARGE OCEAN SWELLS PRODUCING HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS COULD AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...29.6 N...56.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA ** WTIO31 PGTW 211500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 211200Z --- NEAR 19.8N 66.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 66.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 19.9N 66.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 19.8N 67.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 19.7N 67.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 19.5N 67.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 211500Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 66.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z AND 221500Z.// BT #0001 ** WTCA43 TJSJ 211516 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN HELENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 37 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 AM AST MIERCOLES 20 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...HELENE SE DEBILITA SOBRE EL ATLANTICO CENTRAL...NO ES AMENAZA A TIERRA... A LAS 1100 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN HELENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 29.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 56.9 OESTE O COMO A 505 MILLAS...810 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE SURESTE DE BERMUDA. HELENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...20 KM/HR Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL AL NOR NORESTE Y UN AUMENTO DE VELOCIDAD DE MOVIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 80 MPH...130 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA POCO DE FORTALECIMIENTO EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA UNAS 35 MILLAS...55 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 200 MILLAS...325 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA FUE DE 970 MILIBARAS...28.64 PULGADAS. AUNQUE SE ESPERA QUE HELENE PASE A VARIAS CIENTAS DE MILLAS AL ESTE DE BERMUDA...GRANDES MAREJADAS EN EL OCEANO PRODUCIRAN CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DE RESACA QUE PODRIAN AFECTAR AL AREA DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS VARIOS DIAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 AM AST...29.6 NORTE...56.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...80 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...970 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BROWN/AVILA ** WTIO31 PGTW 211500 COR *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A WARNING NR 002A CORRECTED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 211200Z --- NEAR 19.8N 66.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 66.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 19.9N 66.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 19.8N 67.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 19.7N 67.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 19.5N 67.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 211500Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 66.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 01 KNOT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z AND 221500Z. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED MOVEMENT DIRECTION IN REMARKS.// ** WTJP32 RJTD 211500 *** WARNING 211500. WARNING VALID 221500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0614 YAGI (0614) 920 HPA AT 22.1N 145.5E SOUTHEAST OF OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHWEST 16 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 170 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 221500UTC AT 25.8N 141.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 211500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0614 YAGI (0614) ANALYSIS PSTN 211500UTC 22.1N 145.5E GOOD MOVE NW 16KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 170NM FORECAST 24HF 221500UTC 25.8N 141.1E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 13KT PRES 910HPA MXWD 110KT 45HF 231200UTC 29.8N 141.4E 150NM 70% MOVE N 12KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 69HF 241200UTC 35.9N 147.0E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 19KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTPQ32 PGUM 211601 *** TCPPQ2 BULLETIN SUPER TYPHOON YAGI (16W) ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 200 AM GUAM LST FRI SEP 22 2006 ...SUPER TYPHOON YAGI BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE MARIANA ISLANDS... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 1 AM GUAM LST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF SUPER TYPHOON YAGI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 145.6 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 215 MILES NORTH OF AGRIHAN 265 MILES NORTH OF PAGAN 290 MILES NORTH OF ALAMAGAN 470 MILES NORTH OF SAIPAN 585 MILES NORTH OF GUAM. SUPER TYPHOON YAGI IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 18 MPH. YAGI IS EXPECTED TO TURN GRADUALLY NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THOUGH A SUPER TYPHOON...YAGI IS NOW A CATEGORY 5 TYPHOON WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 160 MPH. TYPHOON YAGI IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 1 AM POSITION...21.9 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 145.6 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 18 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 160 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 AM GUAM LST. $$ ZIOBRO ** WTNT80 EGRR 211754 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 21.09.2006 HURRICANE HELENE ANALYSED POSITION : 29.1N 57.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 21.09.2006 29.1N 57.1W INTENSE 00UTC 22.09.2006 31.3N 56.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2006 34.0N 55.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2006 35.7N 51.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.09.2006 36.6N 47.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2006 37.2N 42.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.09.2006 38.1N 38.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.09.2006 38.1N 33.5W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 25.09.2006 38.3N 30.2W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 26.09.2006 36.2N 27.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.09.2006 35.1N 27.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.09.2006 32.4N 26.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2006 30.6N 26.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ANALYSED POSITION : 12.3N 168.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP022006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 21.09.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 211754