** WTPQ20 BABJ 210600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST SUPER TY YAGI 0614 (0614) INITIAL TIME 210600 UTC 00HR 20.7N 147.7E 925HPA 55M/S 30KTS 320KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR WNW 30KM/H P+24HR 23.5N 142.7E 920HPA 60M/S P+48HR 27.9N 141.0E 920HPA 60M/S P+72HR 33.9N 143.7E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTIN20 DEMS 210635 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 21-09-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) SUBJECT:- DEPRESSION OVER BAY OF BENGAL A DEPRESSION HAS FORMED OVER EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA AT 0300 UTC WHICH LAY CENTRED NEAR LAT. 19.5 DEG. N AND LONG. 66.0 DEG. E, ABOUT 450 KMS SOUTHWEST OF PORBANDER (42830). IT IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE SLOWLY IN A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE ALSO SEEN OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 24 DEGREE NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????????? ** WTPQ21 RJTD 210600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0614 YAGI (0614) ANALYSIS PSTN 210600UTC 20.7N 147.7E GOOD MOVE WNW 16KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 170NM FORECAST 24HF 220600UTC 23.9N 142.6E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 14KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 48HF 230600UTC 28.1N 140.8E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 11KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 72HF 240600UTC 34.2N 145.0E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 17KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTJP22 RJTD 210600 *** WARNING 210600. WARNING VALID 220600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0614 YAGI (0614) 940 HPA AT 20.7N 147.7E SOUTHEAST OF OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 16 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 170 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 220600UTC AT 23.9N 142.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 230600UTC AT 28.1N 140.8E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 34.2N 145.0E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ31 RJTD 210600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.10 FOR TY 0614 YAGI (0614) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 210600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN DECELERATE. TY WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NORTH-NORTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 210600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 9 NAME TY 0614 YAGI ANALYSIS POSITION 210600UTC 20.7N 147.7E MOVEMENT WNW 16KT PRES/VMAX 940HPA 89KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 220600UTC 23.5N 143.0E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 930HPA 95KT 48HR POSITION 230600UTC 27.3N 141.1E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 930HPA 95KT 72HR POSITION 240600UTC 33.1N 143.8E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 950HPA 80KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN32 PGTW 210900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. SUPER TYPHOON 16W (YAGI) WARNING NR 018 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 210600Z --- NEAR 20.6N 147.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 147.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 21.9N 144.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 23.7N 142.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 25.5N 141.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 27.6N 140.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 33.0N 143.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 22 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 38.6N 151.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 28 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 41.3N 165.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 210900Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 147.0E. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 16W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z.// ** WTNT43 KNHC 210842 *** TCDAT3 HURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 500 AM EDT THU SEP 21 2006 THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS DECREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND THE EYE HAS RECENTLY BECOME CLOUD-OBSCURED. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 80 KT. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS...BUT WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE SOME MID-LEVEL SHEAR IS NOW UNDERCUTTING THE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW LAYER. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/11. HELENE IS BEGINNING TO ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED EAST-WEST ALONG 29N-30N LATITUDE. A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST THAT EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA IS PROGRESSING EASTWARD AT 20-25 KT AND SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN HELENE NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS... WITH MORE RAPID ACCELERATION EXPECTED AFTER THAT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD...BUT NOT NEARLY AS FAR EAST AND SOUTH AS THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS...WHICH BRING HELENE VERY CLOSE TO THE NORTHWESTERN AZORES IN 72-96 HOURS. THOSE TWO MODELS HAD A DISTINCT RIGHT BIAS DURING THE RECENT EVOLUTION OF FORMER HURRICANE GORDON...SO LESS WEIGHT WAS PLACED ON THOSE SOLUTIONS AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. AS HELENE BEGINS TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD...THE MID-LEVEL SHEAR COULD ABATE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION WHILE THE CYCLONE IS STILL OVER 27C SSTS. BY 72 HOURS...HOWEVER...HELENE IS EXPECTED TO COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG CYCLONIC MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND INCREASING BAROCLINIC EFFECTS...CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO TRANSITION OVER TO A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SIMILAR TO WHAT FORMER HURRICANE GORDON DID YESTERDAY. EVEN THOUGH HELENE IS FORECAST TO RECURVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...SOME LONG PERIOD SWELLS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA AND BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0900Z 28.4N 56.8W 80 KT 12HR VT 21/1800Z 30.1N 56.5W 85 KT 24HR VT 22/0600Z 32.8N 55.3W 90 KT 36HR VT 22/1800Z 35.6N 52.7W 85 KT 48HR VT 23/0600Z 38.5N 48.7W 75 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 24/0600Z 43.9N 39.1W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 25/0600Z 48.0N 30.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 26/0600Z 53.0N 22.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTNT23 KNHC 210843 *** TCMAT3 HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 0900 UTC THU SEP 21 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 56.8W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......175NE 175SE 150SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..400NE 300SE 250SW 350NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 56.8W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 56.9W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 30.1N 56.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 32.8N 55.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...200NE 175SE 175SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 35.6N 52.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 200SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 38.5N 48.7W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. 34 KT...200NE 240SE 240SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 43.9N 39.1W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...120NE 150SE 150SW 150NW. 34 KT...240NE 275SE 300SW 275NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 48.0N 30.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 53.0N 22.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.4N 56.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTNT33 KNHC 210848 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 500 AM AST THU SEP 21 2006 ...HELENE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.8 WEST OR ABOUT 550 MILES... 880 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST...WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES. ALTHOUGH HELENE IS EXPECTED TO PASS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA...LARGE OCEAN SWELLS PRODUCING HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS COULD AFFECT THE AREA LATER TODAY AND ON FRIDAY. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...28.4 N...56.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTCA43 TJSJ 210901 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN HELENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 36 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL082006 500 AM AST MIERCOLES 20 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...HELENE SE DEBILITA LEVEMENTE SOBRE EL ATLANTICO CENTRAL... A LAS 500 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN HELENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 28.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 56.8 OESTE O COMO A 550 MILLAS...880 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE SURESTE DE BERMUDA. HELENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...20 KM/HR Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL AL NOR NORESTE Y UN AUMENTO DE VELOCIDAD DE MOVIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 90 MPH...150 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA POCO DE FORTALECIMIENTO EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA UNAS 45 MILLAS...75 KILOMETROS...DESDE EL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 200 MILLAS...325 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA FUE DE 964 MILIBARAS...28.47 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 AM AST...28.4 NORTE...56.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...90 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...964 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR STEWART ** WTPQ21 RJTD 210900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0614 YAGI (0614) ANALYSIS PSTN 210900UTC 21.1N 147.0E GOOD MOVE WNW 14KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 170NM FORECAST 24HF 220900UTC 24.5N 141.9E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 14KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 100KT 45HF 230600UTC 28.1N 140.8E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 11KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 69HF 240600UTC 34.2N 145.0E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 17KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTJP32 RJTD 210900 *** WARNING 210900. WARNING VALID 220900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0614 YAGI (0614) 930 HPA AT 21.1N 147.0E SOUTHEAST OF OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 14 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 170 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 220900UTC AT 24.5N 141.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ32 PGUM 211055 *** TCPPQ2 BULLETIN SUPER TYPHOON YAGI (16W) ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 PM GUAM LST THU SEP 21 2006 ...YAGI NOW A SUPER TYPHOON..TURNING NORTHWEST... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. HOWEVER...INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS NORTH OF SAIPAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TYPHOON YAGI. THIS INCLUDES AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN. AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF SUPER TYPHOON YAGI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 147.0 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 180 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF AGRIHAN 220 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PAGAN 245 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN 420 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN 550 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. TYPHOON YAGI IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH. YAGI IS EXPECTED TO TURN GRADUALLY NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THOUGH A SUPER TYPHOON...YAGI REMAINS AT CATEGORY 4 WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 150 MPH. TYPHOON YAGI IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT...AND MAY REACH CATEGORY 5 ON FRIDAY. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 130 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...21.1 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 147.0 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 150 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 AM GUAM LST FRIDAY MORNING. $$ MIDDLEBROOKE