** WTSR20 WSSS 201800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 210000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST SUPER TY YAGI 0614 (0614) INITIAL TIME 210000 UTC 00HR 20.1N 149.3E 925HPA 55M/S 30KTS 320KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR WNW 30KM/H P+24HR 22.3N 143.7E 920HPA 60M/S P+48HR 26.5N 140.5E 920HPA 60M/S P+72HR 33.7N 143.8E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 210000 *** WARNING 210000. WARNING VALID 220000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0614 YAGI (0614) 940 HPA AT 20.1N 149.3E SOUTHWEST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WEST 14 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 170 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 220000UTC AT 22.2N 143.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 230000UTC AT 26.1N 140.6E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 31.7N 143.0E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 210000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0614 YAGI (0614) ANALYSIS PSTN 210000UTC 20.1N 149.3E GOOD MOVE W 14KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 170NM FORECAST 24HF 220000UTC 22.2N 143.8E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 13KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 48HF 230000UTC 26.1N 140.6E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 12KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 72HF 240000UTC 31.7N 143.0E 290NM 70% MOVE N 14KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPQ31 RJTD 210000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 9 FOR TY 0614 YAGI (0614) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 210000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN DECELERATE. TY WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NORTH. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTNT33 KNHC 210232 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 PM AST WED SEP 20 2006 ...HELENE TURNS NORTHWARD OVER THE OPEN CENTRAL ATLANTIC... AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.0 WEST OR ABOUT 590 MILES... 950 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...27.1 N...57.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTNT23 KNHC 210232 *** TCMAT3 HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 0300 UTC THU SEP 21 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 57.0W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB EYE DIAMETER 40 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 45SW 45NW. 50 KT....... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT.......175NE 175SE 150SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..375NE 300SE 225SW 350NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 57.0W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 57.0W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 28.6N 57.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 45NW. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 31.2N 56.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 45NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 75NW. 34 KT...200NE 175SE 175SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 34.0N 54.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 45NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 75NW. 34 KT...200NE 175SE 175SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 37.2N 51.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT...120NE 150SE 100SW 125NW. 34 KT...200NE 240SE 240SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 43.0N 42.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT...120NE 150SE 180SW 150NW. 34 KT...240NE 275SE 300SW 275NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 48.0N 32.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 52.0N 24.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.1N 57.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTCA43 TJSJ 210246 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN HELENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 35 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 PM AST MIERCOLES 20 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...HELENE GIRA AL NORTE SOBRE EL ATLANTICO CENTRAL... A LAS 1100 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN HELENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 27.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 57.0 OESTE O COMO A 590 MILLAS...950 KILOMETROS...AL SURESTE DE BERMUDA. HELENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH...15 KM/HR Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL AL NOR-NORESTE Y UN AUMENTO DE VELOCIDAD DE MOVIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 100 MPH...160 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA POCO DE FORTALECIMIENTO EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA UNAS 105 MILLAS...165 KILOMETROS...DESDE EL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 175 MILLAS...280 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA FUE DE 961 MILIBARAS...28.38 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 PM AST...27.1 NORTE...57.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...100 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...961 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN ** WTNT43 KNHC 210254 *** TCDAT3 HURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 PM EDT WED SEP 20 2006 OVERALL...HELENE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SEVERAL MICROWAVE IMAGES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWED MINIMAL CONVECTION SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...POSSIBLY DUE TO ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR SEEN IN DATA FROM NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT. SINCE THE LAST MICROWAVE IMAGE...THERE HAS BEEN SOME COOLING OF THE CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH THE EYE REMAINS POORLY DEFINED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 85 KT BASED ON FURTHER EXAMINATION OF DATA FROM THE NOAA P-3 MISSION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AGREES WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA...AND 77 KT FROM TAFB. HELENE HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT DURING THE PAST 6-12 HR WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 360/8. THE HURRICANE IS ROUNDING THE WESTERN END OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND WILL RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR. ALL TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED AFTER 24-36 HR. THE OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS IS SLOWER THAN 6 HR AGO. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF...AND IS SLOWER THAN...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IT IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. IN THE SHORT TERM...ALL GUIDANCE FORECASTS HELENE TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE...AND THIS REMAINS IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. AFTER RECURVATURE...INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE LATEST LARGE-SCALE MODEL RUNS SEND MIXED SIGNALS ON EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE MODEL SURFACE FIELDS FORECAST A COLD FRONT TO INTERACT WITH HELENE AT ABOUT 48 HR. HOWEVER...FSU CYCLONE PHASE DIAGRAMS BASED ON THOSE MODELS SUGGEST THAT HELENE MAY NOT BECOME A CLASSIC COLD CORE CYCLONE. INSTEAD...THEY SUGGEST THAT HELENE WILL BECOME AN ASYMMETRIC WARM CORE SYSTEM AS TRANSITION BEGINS...THEN REGAIN A SYMMETRIC WARM CORE. THIS WILL LIKELY BE DUE TO A NON-TROPICAL SECLUSION PROCESS RATHER THAN THE NORMAL CONVECTIVE PROCESS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE ONSET OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BE DELAYED 24 HR FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT STRUCTURAL EVOLUTION...HELENE SHOULD REMAIN A LARGE AND POWERFUL CYCLONE AS IT CROSSES THE NORTH ATLANTIC. EVEN THOUGH HELENE IS FORECAST TO RECURVE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...SOME LONG PERIOD SWELLS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA AND BERMUDA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0300Z 27.1N 57.0W 85 KT 12HR VT 21/1200Z 28.6N 57.0W 90 KT 24HR VT 22/0000Z 31.2N 56.3W 90 KT 36HR VT 22/1200Z 34.0N 54.5W 85 KT 48HR VT 23/0000Z 37.2N 51.2W 75 KT 72HR VT 24/0000Z 43.0N 42.0W 70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 25/0000Z 48.0N 32.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 26/0000Z 52.0N 24.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPN32 PGTW 210300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 16W (YAGI) WARNING NR 017 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 210000Z --- NEAR 20.1N 149.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.1N 149.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 21.2N 146.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 22.8N 143.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 24.5N 141.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 26.4N 141.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 31.6N 142.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 21 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 38.0N 149.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 29 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 41.5N 163.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 210300Z POSITION NEAR 20.4N 148.4E. TYPHOON (TY) 16W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 39 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z.// ** WTIO31 PGTW 210300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/202221Z SEP 06// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 210000Z --- NEAR 19.6N 66.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 66.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 19.8N 65.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 20.0N 65.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 20.2N 65.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 20.4N 64.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 210300Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 66.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 202221Z SEP 06 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 202230). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z AND 220300Z.// ** WTJP32 RJTD 210300 *** WARNING 210300. WARNING VALID 220300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0614 YAGI (0614) 940 HPA AT 20.4N 148.3E SOUTHWEST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WEST 16 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 170 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 220300UTC AT 22.8N 142.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 210300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0614 YAGI (0614) ANALYSIS PSTN 210300UTC 20.4N 148.3E GOOD MOVE W 16KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 170NM FORECAST 24HF 220300UTC 22.8N 142.8E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 14KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 45HF 230000UTC 26.1N 140.6E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 12KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 69HF 240000UTC 31.7N 143.0E 290NM 70% MOVE N 14KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPQ32 PGUM 210345 *** TCPPQ2 BULLETIN TYPHOON YAGI (16W) ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 200 PM GUAM LST THU SEP 21 2006 ...TYPHOON YAGI CONTINUES MOVING WEST... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. HOWEVER...INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS NORTH OF SAIPAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TYPHOON YAGI. THIS INCLUDES AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN. AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON YAGI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.4 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 205 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF AGRIHAN 230 MILES NORTHEAST OF PAGAN 250 MILES NORTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN 405 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN 535 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. TYPHOON YAGI IS MOVING WEST AT 18 MPH. YAGI IS EXPECTED TO TURN GRADUALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. YAGI REMAINS A CATEGORY 4 TYPHOON WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 140 MPH. TYPHOON YAGI IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...20.4 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 148.4 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST AT 18 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 140 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 PM GUAM LST. $$ AHN ** WTNT80 EGRR 210544 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 21.09.2006 HURRICANE HELENE ANALYSED POSITION : 27.2N 57.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 21.09.2006 27.2N 57.2W STRONG 12UTC 21.09.2006 29.0N 57.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 22.09.2006 30.8N 56.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.09.2006 33.6N 54.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2006 35.5N 51.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.09.2006 36.8N 47.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.09.2006 37.8N 42.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.09.2006 39.6N 36.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.09.2006 40.7N 30.8W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 25.09.2006 43.3N 26.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.09.2006 EXTRA-TROPICAL TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ANALYSED POSITION : 11.5N 166.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP022006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 21.09.2006 11.5N 166.3W WEAK 12UTC 21.09.2006 12.2N 169.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.09.2006 12.6N 172.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2006 13.2N 175.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 210544