** WTSR20 WSSS 200600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 201200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST SUPER TY YAGI 0614 (0614) INITIAL TIME 201200 UTC 00HR 19.6N 152.5E 925HPA 55M/S 30KTS 320KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR W 25KM/H P+24HR 20.7N 145.7E 920HPA 60M/S P+48HR 24.4N 141.8E 925HPA 60M/S P+72HR 29.1N 140.4E 935HPA 50M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 201200 *** WARNING 201200. WARNING VALID 211200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0614 YAGI (0614) 940 HPA AT 19.6N 152.5E SOUTH OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 170 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 211200UTC AT 20.7N 146.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 24.8N 141.3E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 29.4N 141.1E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 201200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0614 YAGI (0614) ANALYSIS PSTN 201200UTC 19.6N 152.5E GOOD MOVE W 15KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 170NM FORECAST 24HF 211200UTC 20.7N 146.0E 80NM 70% MOVE W 15KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 48HF 221200UTC 24.8N 141.3E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 14KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 72HF 231200UTC 29.4N 141.1E 220NM 70% MOVE N 11KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT = ** WTPA33 PHFO 201430 *** TCPCP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022006 500 AM HST WED SEP 20 2006 AT 500 AM HST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 164.3 WEST OR ABOUT 815 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII AND ABOUT 515 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM HST POSITION...11.2 N...164.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM HST. $$ FORECASTER DONALDSON ** WTPA23 PHFO 201433 *** TCMCP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022006 1500 UTC WED SEP 20 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 164.3W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 164.3W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 163.6W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 11.8N 166.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 12.6N 168.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 13.3N 171.1W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 13.7N 173.2W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.1N 176.9W...REMNANT LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N 164.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER DONALDSON ** WTNT32 KNHC 201433 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 AM AST WED SEP 20 2006 ...GORDON RACING EASTWARD...EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY... AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 20.9 WEST OR ABOUT 345 MILES...550 KM...EAST OF THE ISLAND OF TERCEIRA IN THE AZORES AND ABOUT 625 MILES...1005 KM WEST OF THE COAST OF PORTUGAL. GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 33 MPH...54 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. THIS MOTION WOULD BRING GORDON AS AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM NEAR THE COASTS OF PORTUGAL AND SPAIN ON TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE GORDON BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...37.8 N...20.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST NEAR 33 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT22 KNHC 201433 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1500 UTC WED SEP 20 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.8N 20.9W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 29 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 80SE 80SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 150SE 200SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 225SE 225SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.8N 20.9W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.8N 22.6W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 39.5N 15.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 200SE 200SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 45.0N 11.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...125NE 200SE 200SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.8N 20.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT23 KNHC 201434 *** TCMAT3 HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1500 UTC WED SEP 20 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 56.3W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT.......100NE 75SE 60SW 100NW. 34 KT.......200NE 175SE 150SW 175NW. 12 FT SEAS..375NE 300SE 225SW 350NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 56.3W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 56.0W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 27.3N 57.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 175SE 150SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 29.4N 57.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 45NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...225NE 200SE 175SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 32.3N 56.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 45NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...225NE 200SE 175SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 35.0N 54.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 175SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 40.5N 47.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...125NE 125SE 150SW 150NW. 34 KT...225NE 250SE 275SW 275NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 46.0N 36.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 50.0N 28.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.0N 56.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA ** WTNT33 KNHC 201434 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 AM AST WED SEP 20 2006 ...HELENE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.3 WEST OR ABOUT 670 MILES... 1080 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAKING HELENE A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...26.0 N...56.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA ** WTNT42 KNHC 201435 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 39 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 AM EDT WED SEP 20 2006 GORDON HAS WEAKENED BUT IT IS RETAINING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. IT STILL HAS A CORE AND DEEP CONVECTION JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS ALREADY VERY NEAR THE CORE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND GORDON SHOULD BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 50 KNOTS AND ONLY A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE COLD FRONT IN A DAY OR SO. GORDON IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 29 KNOTS BUT A GRADUAL TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES MORE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A STRONG MID-LATITUDE WAVE. THIS MOTION WOULD BRING THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR NORTHWESTERN SPAIN BUT BY THEN...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF BEING ABSORBED BY THE COLD FRONT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/1500Z 37.8N 20.9W 50 KT 12HR VT 21/0000Z 39.5N 15.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 21/1200Z 45.0N 11.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 22/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT43 KNHC 201436 *** TCDAT3 HURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 AM EDT WED SEP 20 2006 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION ASSOCIATED WITH HELENE HAS DEGRADED THIS MORNING AS THE EYE IS NO LONGER EVIDENT AND THE CENTRAL CORE CONVECTION HAS BECOME LESS SYMMETRIC. WHILE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED AT 102 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...THE ACTUAL DATA T VALUES ARE MUCH LOWER AT 77 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 90 KT GIVEN THESE DATA. THE REASONS FOR THE CURRENT WEAKENING ARE NOT READILY APPARENT. MICROWAVE DATA FROM YESTERDAY SUGGESTED THAT HELENE WAS ENTERING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WHICH MAY HAVE NOT YET COMPLETED. ADDITIONALLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS NOW RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHWEST INDICATING THAT VERTICAL SHEAR AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS IMPINGING UPON THE CYCLONE. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS TRICKY. IF THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE DOES NOT COMPLETE OR THE SHEAR DOES NOT RELAX... ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE. FURTHER COMPLICATING MATTERS IS A LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES WHICH MAY PROVIDE A TEMPORARY SHOT OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SHEAR. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO START INTERACTING WITH THE ATTENDANT BAROCLINIC ZONE ULTIMATELY RESULTING IN THE SYSTEM BEGINNING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 72 HOURS. DURING THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...HELENE WILL BE SITUATED NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET WHICH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH ENERGY TO PREVENT WEAKENING. HELENE IS MOVING A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 315/10. THE LONG ANTICIPATED TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT A GRADUAL NORTHWARD TURN DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATION NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A LARGE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AND IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 72 HOURS AND IS LITTLE CHANGED THEREAFTER. EVEN THOUGH HELENE IS FORECAST TO RECURVE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...LONG PERIOD SWELLS ARE ALREADY REGISTERING AT SEVERAL EAST COAST BUOYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/1500Z 26.0N 56.3W 90 KT 12HR VT 21/0000Z 27.3N 57.0W 90 KT 24HR VT 21/1200Z 29.4N 57.3W 95 KT 36HR VT 22/0000Z 32.3N 56.4W 90 KT 48HR VT 22/1200Z 35.0N 54.5W 85 KT 72HR VT 23/1200Z 40.5N 47.0W 85 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 24/1200Z 46.0N 36.5W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 25/1200Z 50.0N 28.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA ** WTPN32 PGTW 201500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 16W (YAGI) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 201200Z --- NEAR 19.6N 152.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 152.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 20.2N 149.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 21.4N 147.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 23.0N 145.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 25.1N 143.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 30.0N 143.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 16 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 35.7N 146.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 40.3N 156.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 201500Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 151.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 16W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 465 NM NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 39 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.// ** WTPA43 PHFO 201442 *** TCDCP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022006 500 AM HST WED SEP 20 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN. LATEST INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BECOMING COMPLETELY EXPOSED WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OFF TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGED FROM 1.0...FROM JTWC...TO 2.5 FROM SAB AND THE SATELLITE FIXES ALL SHOWED A WEAKENING TREND. WE HAVE DROPPED THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 25 KT. THE LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC HAS CHANGED LITTLE. A STRONG 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 38N 145W WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING TO 22N 180. TWO-C HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE WEST NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE VERY CLOSELY CLUSTERED. WE HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST TRACK UNCHANGED...RUNNING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS TWO-C FAR FROM ANY INHABITED ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THE OBJECTIVE AIDS STILL SHOW TWO-C STRENGTHENING...IT HAS BECOME HARD TO IGNORE AN OBVIOUS WEAKENING TREND. FEW TROPICAL CYLONES BECOME AS WEAK AS TWO-C AND THEN DEVELOP INTO STRONG SYSTEMS. DESPITE ANALYSES AND FORECASTS OF VERY WEAK SHEAR...THERE HAS APPARENTLY BEEN ENOUGH SHEAR TO PUSH DEEP CONVECTION OFF TO THE WEST OF TWO-C. UNLESS SOMETHING HAPPENS TO REVERSE THIS TREND... TWO-C WILL WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 72 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/1500Z 11.2N 164.3W 25 KT 12HR VT 21/0000Z 11.8N 166.3W 25 KT 24HR VT 21/1200Z 12.6N 168.8W 25 KT 36HR VT 22/0000Z 13.3N 171.1W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 22/1200Z 13.7N 173.2W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 23/1200Z 14.1N 176.9W REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER DONALDSON ** WTCA43 TJSJ 201516 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN HELENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 33 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 AM AST MIERCOLES 20 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...HELENE SE DEBILITA UN POCO SOBRE EL ATLANTICO CENTRAL... A LAS 1100 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN HELENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 26.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 56.3 OESTE O COMO A 670 MILLAS...1080 KILOMETROS...AL SURESTE DE BERMUDA. HELENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH... 19 KM/HR Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO AL NORTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 105 MPH...165 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. POCOS CAMBIOS EN INTENSIDAD SE PRONOSTICAN DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA UNAS 60 MILLAS...95 KILOMETROS...DESDE EL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 230 MILLAS...370 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA FUE DE 958 MILIBARAS...28.29 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 AM AST...26.0 NORTE...56.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...105 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...958 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR RHOME/AVILA ** WTPQ32 PGUM 201521 *** TCPPQ2 BULLETIN TYPHOON YAGI (16W) ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 200 AM GUAM LST THU SEP 21 2006 ...TYPHOON YAGI MOVING WEST AND INTENSIFYING... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. HOWEVER...INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS NORTH OF SAIPAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TYPHOON YAGI. THIS INCLUDES ALAMAGAN...PAGAN AND AGRIHAN. AT 1 AM GUAM LST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON YAGI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 151.8 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF AGRIHAN 410 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN 515 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN 640 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM. TYPHOON YAGI IS MOVING WEST AT 17 MPH. YAGI IS EXPECTED TO TURN GRADUALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. YAGI IS A CATEGORY 4 TYPHOON WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 140 MPH. TYPHOON YAGI IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER TODAY. REPEATING THE 1 AM POSITION...19.8 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 151.8 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST AT 17 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 140 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 AM GUAM LST. $$ HENDRICKS ** WTJP32 RJTD 201500 *** WARNING 201500. WARNING VALID 211500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0614 YAGI (0614) 940 HPA AT 19.6N 151.6E SOUTHSOUTHWEST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WEST 16 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 170 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 211500UTC AT 21.4N 145.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 201500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0614 YAGI (0614) ANALYSIS PSTN 201500UTC 19.6N 151.6E GOOD MOVE W 16KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 170NM FORECAST 24HF 211500UTC 21.4N 145.1E 80NM 70% MOVE W 15KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 45HF 221200UTC 24.8N 141.3E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 14KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 69HF 231200UTC 29.4N 141.1E 220NM 70% MOVE N 11KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT = ** WTPN31 PHNC 201600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02C WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 201200Z --- NEAR 11.0N 163.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 11.2N 164.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 11.8N 166.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 12.6N 168.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 13.3N 171.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 13.7N 173.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 14.1N 176.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 14.4N 179.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 14.8N 176.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 201600Z POSITION NEAR 11.4N 165.0W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202200Z, 210400Z, 211000Z AND 211600Z. FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 201715 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 20.09.2006 TROPICAL STORM GORDON ANALYSED POSITION : 37.6N 22.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 20.09.2006 37.6N 22.8W MODERATE 00UTC 21.09.2006 40.1N 15.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 21.09.2006 45.9N 10.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2006 EXTRA-TROPICAL HURRICANE HELENE ANALYSED POSITION : 25.9N 55.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 20.09.2006 25.9N 55.9W INTENSE 00UTC 21.09.2006 27.9N 57.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 21.09.2006 30.1N 57.5W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 22.09.2006 33.2N 56.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.09.2006 36.9N 53.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2006 41.9N 47.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.09.2006 47.3N 41.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 24.09.2006 50.3N 38.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.09.2006 51.7N 35.1W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 25.09.2006 53.4N 31.2W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 25.09.2006 EXTRA-TROPICAL TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ANALYSED POSITION : 11.1N 163.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP022006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 20.09.2006 11.1N 163.9W WEAK 00UTC 21.09.2006 11.8N 166.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2006 12.6N 168.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.09.2006 13.4N 170.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2006 12.7N 173.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 201715