** WTSR20 WSSS 191800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 200000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME DEVELOPING LOW FORMER TS 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 200000UTC 45N 145E MOVE ENE 30KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 500NM NORTHEAST 300NM SOUTHWEST = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 200000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY YAGI 0614 (0614) INITIAL TIME 200000 UTC 00HR 19.7N 155.6E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 130KM P12HR W 20KM/H P+24HR 19.9N 149.7E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 23.0N 144.0E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 26.6N 141.0E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 200000 *** WARNING 200000. WARNING VALID 210000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0614 YAGI (0614) 940 HPA AT 19.7N 155.6E SOUTH OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 170 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 19.6N 149.5E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 220000UTC AT 21.6N 144.0E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 230000UTC AT 26.9N 140.4E WITH 270 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 200000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0614 YAGI (0614) ANALYSIS PSTN 200000UTC 19.7N 155.6E GOOD MOVE W 10KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 170NM FORECAST 24HF 210000UTC 19.6N 149.5E 80NM 70% MOVE W 14KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 48HF 220000UTC 21.6N 144.0E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 14KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 72HF 230000UTC 26.9N 140.4E 270NM 70% MOVE NW 14KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT = ** WTNT33 KNHC 200226 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 PM AST TUE SEP 19 2006 ...HELENE CHURNING WESTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS...A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY... AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.8 WEST OR ABOUT 805 MILES... 1300 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HELENE COULD REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS ON WEDNESDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...24.6 N...54.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER COBB/PASCH ** WTNT23 KNHC 200226 *** TCMAT3 HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 0300 UTC WED SEP 20 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 54.8W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT.......100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW. 34 KT.......175NE 175SE 150SW 175NW. 12 FT SEAS..375NE 300SE 225SW 350NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 54.8W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 54.3W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 25.5N 55.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 150SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 27.5N 56.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 30.0N 56.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT...120NE 100SE 75SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 225SE 125SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 32.7N 56.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...120NE 100SE 75SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 225SE 125SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 39.0N 50.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...125NE 150SE 75SW 125NW. 34 KT...225NE 250SE 150SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 45.0N 40.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 49.0N 30.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 54.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER COBB/PASCH ** WTPQ31 RJTD 200000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 7 FOR TY 0614 YAGI (0614) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 200000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL ACCELERATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NORTHWEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTNT22 KNHC 200243 *** TCMAT2 HURRICANE GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 0300 UTC WED SEP 20 2006 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZORES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 28.1W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 29 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 35SE 35SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 100SE 150SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 225SE 225SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 28.1W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 29.9W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 38.0N 22.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 100SE 150SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 40.5N 15.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 100SE 150SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 44.0N 8.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 100SE 100SW 50NW. 34 KT...125NE 175SE 175SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.7N 28.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTNT32 KNHC 200243 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 PM AST TUE SEP 19 2006 ...GORDON MOVING NEAR THE CENTRAL AZORES... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZORES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.1 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES... 150 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLAND OF TERCEIRA IN THE AZORES AND ABOUT 130 MILES...210 KM...WEST OF THE ISLAND OF SAO MIGUEL IN THE AZORES. GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 33 MPH...54 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE EASTERN ISLANDS OF THE AZORES IN A FEW HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. GORDON IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ALONG WITH STORM SURGES OF 1 TO 3 FT ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE AZORES. GORDON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE AZORES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...37.7 N...28.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST NEAR 33 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTNT43 KNHC 200243 *** TCDAT3 HURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 19 2006 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AVERAGE NEAR 100 KT FROM TAFB...SAB AND AFWA. HOWEVER...A 2039 UTC TRMM OVERPASS INDICATED THAT HELENE WAS IN THE MIDDLE OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WHICH SUGGESTS THE SLIGHT FILLING OF THE CYCLONE IS NOT YET FINISHED. IN ADDITION RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME ASYMMETRIES IN THE DEEP CONVECTION WITH A FAIRLY RAGGED EYE AS WELL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 95 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT...HOWEVER A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED SOON. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48-72 HOURS AND VARIES WITH FORWARD SPEED THEREAFTER. THE GFDL MODEL AND GUNA CONSENSUS WERE FOLLOWED CLOSELY FOR THIS PACKAGE SINCE THESE MODELS HAVE EXHIBITED THE BEST PERFORMANCE THUS FAR WITH HELENE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND INDICATES A QUICK RECURVATURE TO THE NORTH IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...AND ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER 48 HOURS ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF A LARGE 500 MB TROUGH MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. HELENE REMAINS IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR NOW WITH STRONG UPPER TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. ONCE THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT IS COMPLETED THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRENGTHENING AND HELENE COULD REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. BEYOND 36 HOURS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY TO BRING ABOUT GRADUAL WEAKENING. BY 96 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS...SUCH AS THE GFS...SHOW CONSIDERABLE COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE...JUSTIFYING A FORECAST OF TRANSITION TO A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL STORM AROUND THAT TIME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0300Z 24.6N 54.8W 95 KT 12HR VT 20/1200Z 25.5N 55.7W 100 KT 24HR VT 21/0000Z 27.5N 56.8W 100 KT 36HR VT 21/1200Z 30.0N 56.8W 95 KT 48HR VT 22/0000Z 32.7N 56.0W 95 KT 72HR VT 23/0000Z 39.0N 50.0W 85 KT 96HR VT 24/0000Z 45.0N 40.0W 75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 25/0000Z 49.0N 30.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER COBB/PASCH ** WTNT42 KNHC 200244 *** TCDAT2 HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 37 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 19 2006 DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED A LITTLE AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AND MORE RAGGED-LOOKING IN ITS APPEARANCE. THE INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. GORDON SHOULD MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH UNTIL IT DEPARTS THE AZORES...HOWEVER FURTHER WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT BECOME MORE HOSTILE FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT GORDON WILL BEGIN TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITHIN 24 HOURS...AND THIS IS ALSO SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE POST-GORDON CYCLONE COULD IMPACT PORTIONS OF PORTUGAL AND/OR SPAIN AS A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL STORM. WITHIN 48 HOURS WE EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO MERGE WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE BRITISH ISLES. GORDON IS EMBEDDED IN STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC GYRE...AND THE MOTION CONTINUES NEAR 090/29. DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT GORDON OR ITS EXTRATROPICAL VERSION WILL GRADUALLY CURVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND THE LARGER MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0300Z 37.7N 28.1W 70 KT 12HR VT 20/1200Z 38.0N 22.5W 60 KT 24HR VT 21/0000Z 40.5N 15.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 21/1200Z 44.0N 8.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTPA23 PHFO 200247 *** TCMCP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022006 0300 UTC WED SEP 20 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 161.8W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 289 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 161.8W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 161.2W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 11.0N 163.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 5NE 5SE 5SW 5NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 11.7N 166.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 10SE 10SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 12.5N 169.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 13.4N 171.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 14.1N 174.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 14.5N 178.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 14.5N 179.0E MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.6N 161.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KODAMA ** WTPA33 PHFO 200249 *** TCPCP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022006 500 PM HST TUE SEP 19 2006 AT 500 PM HST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 161.8 WEST OR ABOUT 785 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...OAHU AND ABOUT 665 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM HST POSITION...10.6 N...161.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM HST. $$ FORECASTER KODAMA ** WTPA43 PHFO 200250 *** TCDCP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022006 500 PM HST TUE SEP 19 2006 TWO-C CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE IN ITS EFFORT TO SPIN UP AND ATTEMPTS AT DEVELOPING PERSISTENT RAINBANDS AND CENTRAL CONVECTION HAVE THUS FAR FAILED. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM CPHC...AFWA AND JTWC ARE AT T1.5 OR 25 KT. SAB IS ONCE AGAIN ON THE HIGHER END AT T2.5. WILL KEEP THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR GOVERNING THE TRACK OF TWO-C AND SHOULD MAINTAIN A GENERAL WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PACKAGE. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN A BIT BEYOND DAY 2 AND WILL SLOW DOWN TWO-C A BIT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND THE OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. THE UKMET AND ECMWF ARE THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN DYNAMIC MODEL OUTLIERS RESPECTIVELY WITH THE GFS...GFDL AND NOGAPS CLUSTERED TOGETHER DOWN THE CENTER. THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMIC MODEL CONSENSUS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SPEED AFTER DAY 2 WHICH PUSHES THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE DATELINE BY DAY 5. THE FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES TO KEEP TWO-C OVER THE OPEN OCEAN AWAY FROM MAJOR PACIFIC ISLANDS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTAINS MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY THAN THE TRACK FORECAST. VERTICAL SHEAR NEAR TWO-C REMAINS LOW AND THE SST IS AT A MORE THAN ADEQUATE 28.6C. CONSIDERING THESE FACTORS...IT WOULD SEEM THAT THERE ARE NO MAJOR IMPEDIMENTS TO INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...TWO-C CONTINUES TO FAIL AT DEVELOPING PERSISTENT DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION AND ALL THE LATEST OBJECTIVE AIDS NOW KEEP THE SYSTEM BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH THROUGH DAY 5. SHIPS IS THE MOST AGRESSIVE WITH A MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 60 KT WHILE THE GFS KILLS TWO-C BY DAY 4. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...THE FORECAST KNOCKS THE MAX INTENSITY DOWN A BIT TO HAVE TWO-C BARELY REACH HURRICANE STATUS AT DAY 4. ADMITTEDLY...THIS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE GIVEN THE CURRENT PICTURE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0300Z 10.6N 161.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 20/1200Z 11.0N 163.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 21/0000Z 11.7N 166.6W 40 KT 36HR VT 21/1200Z 12.5N 169.1W 45 KT 48HR VT 22/0000Z 13.4N 171.6W 50 KT 72HR VT 23/0000Z 14.1N 174.9W 60 KT 96HR VT 24/0000Z 14.5N 178.1W 65 KT 120HR VT 25/0000Z 14.5N 179.0E 65 KT $$ FORECASTER KODAMA ** WTCA43 TJSJ 200252 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN HELENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 31 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 PM AST MARTES 19 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...HELENE SE MUEVE AL OESTE SOBRE MAR ABIERTO...ES PROBABLE ALGUN GIRO AL NOROESTE EL MIERCOLES... A LAS 1100 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN HELENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 54.8 OESTE O COMO A 805 MILLAS...1300 KILOMETROS...AL SURESTE DE BERMUDA. HELENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH... 13 KM/HR Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO AL NOROESTE EL MIERCOLES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 110 MPH...175 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. HELENE PUDIERA CONVERTIRSE NUEVAMENTE EN UN HURACAN MAYOR EL MIERCOLES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA UNAS 45 MILLAS...75 KILOMETROS...DESDE EL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 220 MILLAS...370 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA FUE DE 958 MILIBARAS...28.29 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 PM AST...24.6 NORTE...54.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...110 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...958 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR COBB/PASCH ** WTPQ21 RJTD 200300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0614 YAGI (0614) ANALYSIS PSTN 200300UTC 19.7N 154.8E GOOD MOVE W 14KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 170NM FORECAST 24HF 210300UTC 19.6N 148.4E 80NM 70% MOVE W 15KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 45HF 220000UTC 21.6N 144.0E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 14KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 69HF 230000UTC 26.9N 140.4E 270NM 70% MOVE NW 14KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT = ** WTJP32 RJTD 200300 *** WARNING 200300. WARNING VALID 210300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0614 YAGI (0614) 940 HPA AT 19.7N 154.8E SOUTH OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WEST 14 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 170 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 210300UTC AT 19.6N 148.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ32 PGUM 200346 *** TCPPQ2 BULLETIN TYPHOON YAGI (16W) ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 200 PM GUAM LST WED SEP 20 2006 ...TYPHOON YAGI CONTINUES INTENSIFYING... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. HOWEVER...INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS NORTH OF SAIPAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TYPHOON YAGI. THIS INCLUDES ALAMAGAN...PAGAN AND AGRIHAN. AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON YAGI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 155.0 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 610 MILES EAST OF ALAMAGAN...PAGAN AND AGRIHAN 685 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN 805 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. TYPHOON YAGI IS MOVING WEST AT 12 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. YAGI IS A CATEGORY 3 TYPHOON WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 130 MPH. TYPHOON YAGI IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...19.7 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 155.0 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST AT 12 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 130 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 PM GUAM LST. $$ AHN ** WTPN31 PHNC 200400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02C WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200000Z --- NEAR 10.4N 161.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 289 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 10.4N 161.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 11.0N 163.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 11.7N 166.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 12.5N 169.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 13.4N 171.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 14.1N 174.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 14.5N 178.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 14.5N 179.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT --- REMARKS: 200400Z POSITION NEAR 10.6N 162.1W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201000Z, 201600Z, 202200Z AND 210400Z.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 200518 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 20.09.2006 HURRICANE GORDON ANALYSED POSITION : 37.2N 29.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 20.09.2006 37.2N 29.9W STRONG 12UTC 20.09.2006 37.0N 22.8W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 21.09.2006 41.5N 16.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 21.09.2006 43.9N 12.6W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.09.2006 EXTRA TROPICAL HURRICANE HELENE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.5N 54.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 20.09.2006 24.5N 54.3W INTENSE 12UTC 20.09.2006 25.3N 55.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2006 27.2N 56.6W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2006 29.4N 57.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.09.2006 31.9N 56.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 22.09.2006 34.8N 55.0W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.09.2006 37.3N 51.6W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2006 38.9N 47.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2006 41.7N 41.7W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 24.09.2006 44.8N 39.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 25.09.2006 48.1N 35.0W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.09.2006 51.1N 34.7W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 26.09.2006 53.8N 33.4W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ANALYSED POSITION : 9.2N 160.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP022006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 20.09.2006 9.2N 160.0W WEAK 12UTC 20.09.2006 11.5N 163.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.09.2006 12.1N 165.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2006 12.6N 168.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.09.2006 13.3N 170.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.09.2006 13.8N 171.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2006 14.0N 174.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.09.2006 14.0N 175.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2006 13.7N 177.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.09.2006 13.6N 179.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.09.2006 13.8N 178.0E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.09.2006 14.1N 175.7E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.09.2006 15.1N 173.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 200518 ** WTNT32 KNHC 200553 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE GORDON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 37A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 200 AM AST WED SEP 20 2006 ...GORDON RACING TOWARD THE EASTERN AZORES... AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF THE AZORES HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AZORES. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN AZORES. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 26.3 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES... 60 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLAND OF SAO MIGUEL IN THE EASTERN AZORES...AND ABOUT 90 MILES...140 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLAND OF TERCEIRA IN THE CENTRAL AZORES. GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 33 MPH...54 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN AZORES WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. GORDON IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. GORDON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL STORM SYSTEM LATER TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ALONG WITH STORM SURGES OF 1 TO 3 FT ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE AZORES. GORDON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE AZORES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...37.6 N...26.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST NEAR 33 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART