** WTNT80 EGRR 191820 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 19.09.2006 HURRICANE GORDON ANALYSED POSITION : 37.6N 36.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 19.09.2006 37.6N 36.7W MODERATE 00UTC 20.09.2006 37.3N 30.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.09.2006 37.9N 23.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2006 42.7N 14.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 21.09.2006 48.7N 11.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2006 ABSORBED BY EXTRA-TROPICAL DEPRESSION HURRICANE HELENE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.9N 52.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 19.09.2006 24.9N 52.5W INTENSE 00UTC 20.09.2006 25.3N 53.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.09.2006 26.5N 55.4W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.09.2006 28.2N 56.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 21.09.2006 30.7N 56.0W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 22.09.2006 33.9N 55.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 22.09.2006 37.3N 52.6W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.09.2006 41.4N 48.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 23.09.2006 44.1N 42.6W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 24.09.2006 47.5N 38.6W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 24.09.2006 47.8N 38.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 25.09.2006 47.1N 33.4W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.09.2006 46.8N 27.4W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02C ANALYSED POSITION : 10.6N 158.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP022006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 19.09.2006 10.6N 158.9W WEAK 00UTC 20.09.2006 9.3N 161.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2006 11.0N 163.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2006 12.3N 165.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.09.2006 13.2N 167.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2006 13.9N 169.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2006 14.4N 170.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2006 14.5N 171.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2006 14.4N 173.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2006 14.5N 175.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.09.2006 14.4N 177.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.09.2006 15.1N 179.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.09.2006 15.9N 178.5E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 191820 ** WTPQ20 RJTD 191800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 191800UTC 44.2N 140.2E FAIR MOVE ENE 15KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 300NM EAST 160NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 201800UTC 50.8N 148.7E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP21 RJTD 191800 *** WARNING 191800. WARNING VALID 201800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 985 HPA AT 44.2N 140.2E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 46.8N 146.9E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 50.8N 148.7E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 191800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY YAGI 0614 (0614) INITIAL TIME 191800 UTC 00HR 19.8N 156.8E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 330KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR W 20KM/H P+24HR 19.8N 151.7E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 22.0N 146.9E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 25.4N 143.0E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 191800 *** WARNING 191800. WARNING VALID 201800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0614 YAGI (0614) 950 HPA AT 19.8N 156.8E SOUTHEAST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 170 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 19.1N 150.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 211800UTC AT 21.1N 144.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 221800UTC AT 26.1N 140.7E WITH 270 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 191800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0614 YAGI (0614) ANALYSIS PSTN 191800UTC 19.8N 156.8E GOOD MOVE W 09KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 170NM FORECAST 24HF 201800UTC 19.1N 150.3E 80NM 70% MOVE W 15KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT 48HF 211800UTC 21.1N 144.7E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 14KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT 72HF 221800UTC 26.1N 140.7E 270NM 70% MOVE NW 15KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 191800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 6 NAME TY 0614 YAGI ANALYSIS POSITION 191800UTC 19.8N 156.8E MOVEMENT W 9KT PRES/VMAX 950HPA 80KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 201800UTC 19.7N 151.2E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 945HPA 84KT 48HR POSITION 211800UTC 21.8N 145.9E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 940HPA 87KT 72HR POSITION 221800UTC 26.2N 142.1E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 940HPA 87KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTNT32 KNHC 192035 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 500 PM AST TUE SEP 19 2006 ...TENACIOUS GORDON REFUSES TO WEAKEN...EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AZORES TONIGHT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.6 WEST OR ABOUT 250 MILES... 405 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLAND OF TERCEIRA IN THE AZORES. GORDON IS RACING EASTWARD NEAR 33 MPH...54 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...GORDON WILL BE CROSSING THE AZORES TONIGHT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. GORDON IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. GORDON SHOULD BECOME A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES. LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ALONG WITH STORM SURGES OF 1 TO 3 FT ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE AZORES. GORDON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE AZORES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...37.9 N...31.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST NEAR 33 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT42 KNHC 192037 *** TCDAT2 HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 19 2006 GORDON HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN A REMARKABLY WELL-ORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN AND IN FACT...THERE IS A CLOSED EYEWALL ON THE LATEST AMSU PASS AT 1728 UTC...AND AN EYE FEATURE ON THE LATEST IR IMAGE. EVEN THOUGH T-NUMBERS HAVE BEGUN TO COME DOWN...INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT 75 KNOTS. GORDON IS STILL DETACHED FROM THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH BUT IT SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SOON...AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THERE IS NOT MUCH TO ADD TO THE MOTION EXCEPT THAT THE HURRICANE IS RACING EASTWARD AT 29 KNOTS AND WILL CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK STEERED BY THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. GORDON IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AZORES TONIGHT AS A HURRICANE AND WILL BE NEARING PORTUGAL AND NORTHWEST SPAIN LATE WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OR BORRASCA...AS THEY CALL IT IN SPAIN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/2100Z 37.9N 31.6W 75 KT 12HR VT 20/0600Z 38.1N 26.0W 65 KT 24HR VT 20/1800Z 39.0N 18.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 21/0600Z 42.1N 10.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 21/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT22 KNHC 192037 *** TCMAT2 HURRICANE GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 2100 UTC TUE SEP 19 2006 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.9N 31.6W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 29 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 35SE 35SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 100SE 150SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 225SE 225SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.9N 31.6W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.8N 33.5W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 38.1N 26.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 30SE 30SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 100SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 39.0N 18.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 150SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 42.1N 10.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...125NE 175SE 175SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.9N 31.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPN32 PGTW 192100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 16W (YAGI) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191800Z --- NEAR 19.8N 156.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 156.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 19.6N 154.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 19.9N 151.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 20.8N 148.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 22.1N 146.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 26.4N 142.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 15 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 32.4N 142.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 38.1N 147.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 192100Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 156.2E. TYPHOON (TY) 16W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 685 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.// ** WTPA33 PHFO 192045 *** TCPCP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022006 1100 AM HST TUE SEP 19 2006 AT 1100 AM HST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 159.7 WEST OR ABOUT 790 MILES SOUTH OF HONOLULU OAHU AND ABOUT 805 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM HST POSITION...10.0 N...159.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM HST. $$ FORECASTER NASH ** WTPA43 PHFO 192046 *** TCDCP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022006 1100 AM HST TUE SEP 19 2006 TWO-C STILL NOT LOOKING ALL THAT ORGANIZED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH BURSTS OF CONVECTION MAINLY JUST WEST OF THE CENTER. LAST HOUR OR SO HAS SEEN CONVECTION BLOW UP NEAR THE CENTER BUT ALSO ALONG SOME BANDS TO THE NW AND SE OF THE SYSTEM. MOST DVORAK FIXES STILL AT T1.5 ALTHOUGH SAB GAVE US A T2.0. WILL MAINTAIN SYSTEM AT 30KT WITH THIS CYCLE. UNFORTUNATELY TWO-C IS WITHIN THE HOLE BETWEEN QUICKSCAT AND OTHER MICROWAVE PASSES THIS MORNING SO NO HELP THERE. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ HAS DIMINISHED EXCEPT FOR A SMALL CLUSTER ABOUT 8 DEGREES AWAY NEAR 151W...TWO-C STILL HASNT MADE ITS FULL BREAK FROM THE ITCZ. IT HAS BEEN TRACKING ALMOST DUE WEST THE LAST 24 HOURS...DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING A MORE NORTHWEST MOTION. THIS MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK CLOSER TO THE ITCZ HAS KEPT TWO-C FROM REALLY TAKING OFF AND DEVELOPING. WITH ITCZ CONVECTION DIMINISHING...CHANCES LOOK BETTER FOR TWO-C TO CUT AWAY HOWEVER DONT LIKE THE CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THE BANDS NW AND SE OF THE CENTER...COULD TAKE AWAY FROM CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THUS THE QUANDRY OF THE MOMENT...WILL TWO-C DEVELOP AND IF SO...WHEN AND HOW FAST. CERTAINLY BEEN A POINT OF DISCUSSION HERE AT CPHC THIS MORNING. ALL GLOBAL MODELS...GFS UKMET ECMWF AND NOGAPS...ALL CONTINUE TO BE SUPRISINGLY COOL WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT OF TWO-C AND IN FACT KEEP IT AT TD STRENGTH THRU 120 HRS. GFDL IS STILL SHOWING A SLOW DEVELOPMENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE FINALLY HITTING HURRICANE STRENGTH 4 DAYS FROM NOW. SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS BEEN BACKING OFF THE LAST FEW RUNS AND ONLY SLOWLY BRINGS IT TO A 60KT TROPICAL STORM IN 3 DAYS. GIVEN THE SLOW START TO TWO-C AND CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION...HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE INTENSITY THRU 24 HRS. STILL SHOWING IT REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN 12 HOURS...BUT THAT COULD HAPPEN SOONER OR LATER. ON THE POSITIVE SIDE FOR QUICK INTENSIFICATION IS THE ALMOST NEGLIGABLE SHEAR AND WARM SSTS. ON THE NEGATIVE SIDE IS THE NEARNESS TO THE ITCZ. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN ISNT AS WELL FORMED AS YESTERDAY BUT STILL NOT TOO BAD. TRACKWISE...HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NEARLY ALL DYNAMIC GUIDANCE TO SHOW A MORE WESTWARD MOTION THRU 24HRS. AFTER THAT PRETTY MUCH MADE NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. GUIDANCE DID SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH...SO WE ARE NOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. WILL MAINTAIN THE GENERAL WNW MOTION THRU 72 HOURS THEN TURN MORE WEST AND SLOW DOWN AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AS THE STEERING FLOW IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN. GFDL STARTS MOVING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWEST AND WEAKENING IT AT DAY 5. NOT SURE WHAT THAT MEANS YET...PERHAPS AN EARLY SIGNAL TO A SLIGHT PATTERN SHIFT NEAR THE DATELINE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST KEEPS TWO-C OVER THE OPEN OCEAN AND AWAY FROM ANY MAJOR PACIFIC ISLANDS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/2100Z 10.0N 159.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 20/0600Z 10.3N 161.4W 35 KT 24HR VT 20/1800Z 11.1N 164.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 21/0600Z 11.8N 167.3W 45 KT 48HR VT 21/1800Z 12.7N 169.4W 50 KT 72HR VT 22/1800Z 13.6N 172.7W 60 KT 96HR VT 23/1800Z 14.1N 175.5W 70 KT 120HR VT 24/1800Z 14.3N 177.4W 70 KT $$ FORECASTER NASH ** WTPA23 PHFO 192046 *** TCMCP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022006 2100 UTC TUE SEP 19 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 159.7W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 282 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 159.7W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 159.2W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 10.3N 161.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 5NE 5SE 5SW 5NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 11.1N 164.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 10SE 10SW 35NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 11.8N 167.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 12.7N 169.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 65NE 40SE 40SW 55NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 13.6N 172.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 14.1N 175.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 14.3N 177.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.0N 159.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER NASH ** WTCA42 TJSJ 192048 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN GORDON ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 36 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL072006 500 PM AST MARTES 19 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...GORDON SE REUSA A DEBILITARSE Y SE ESPERA QUE SE MUEVA A TRAVES DE LAS AZORES ESTA NOCHE... UN AVISO DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA TODAS LAS ISLAS AZORES. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN SER COMPLETADOS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA SOBRE SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS O AVISOS...DEBEN MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 500 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN GORDON ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 37.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 31.6 OESTE O COMO A 250 MILLAS...405 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE SUROESTE DE LA ISLA DE TERCEIRA EN AZORES. GORDON SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL ESTE A CERCA DE 33 MPH...54 KM/HR Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL HASTA EL MIERCOLES. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA GORDON ESTARA EN LAS ISLAS AZORES ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN DISMINUIDO A CERCA DE 85 MPH...140 KM/HR CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SIN EMBARGO...VIENTOS MAS FUERTES...ESPECIALMENTE EN RAFAGAS...SON POSIBLES SOBRE ELEVACIONES ALTAS. GORDON ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE ESPERA QUE GORDON SEA UNA TORMENTA EXTRA TROPICAL EL MIERCOLES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 40 MILLAS...65 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 175 MILLAS...185 KM. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 979 MILIBARAS...28.91 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES OLAS ROMPIENTES GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS CON MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS EN AREAS DE LAS COSTAS DE LAS AZORES. SE ESPERA QUE GORDON PRODUZCA CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS SOBRE PARTES DE LAS AZORES...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 6 PULGADAS SOBRE TERRENO EMPINADO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 PM AST...37.9 NORTE...31.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL ESTE A CERCA DE 33 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...85 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...979 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 PM AST SEGUIDA POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR AVILA ** WTNT33 KNHC 192050 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 500 PM AST TUE SEP 19 2006 AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.1 WEST OR ABOUT 840 MILES... 1350 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SIX TO TWELVE HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES...100 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 220 MILES...350 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 956 MB...28.23 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...24.6 N...54.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER MUSHER ** WTNT23 KNHC 192051 *** TCMAT3 HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 2100 UTC TUE SEP 19 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 54.1W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 55NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT....... 95NE 70SE 55SW 95NW. 34 KT.......190NE 140SE 115SW 165NW. 12 FT SEAS..375NE 300SE 240SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 54.1W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 53.7W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 25.2N 55.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 50SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT... 95NE 70SE 60SW 95NW. 34 KT...195NE 140SE 120SW 165NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 26.7N 56.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 85SE 65SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 165SE 130SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 28.9N 56.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 55SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...210NE 190SE 135SW 155NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 32.0N 56.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT...110NE 90SE 75SW 95NW. 34 KT...215NE 190SE 150SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 39.0N 51.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT...120NE 105SE 85SW 100NW. 34 KT...215NE 205SE 175SW 190NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 45.3N 41.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 49.0N 30.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 54.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER MUSHER ** WTNT43 KNHC 192051 *** TCDAT3 HURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 19 2006 A NOAA AIRCRAFT MADE A COUPLE OF PASSES THROUGH HURRICANE HELENE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE ESTIMATED PRESSURE OF 960 MB THIS MORNING APPEARED CORRECT AS THE PLANE MEASURED 958 MB BEFORE DEEPENING ANOTHER 2 MB AN HOUR LATER. THE MAX FLIGHT LEVEL WIND WAS 98 KNOTS AT 850 MB IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AND TWO EYE WALLS WERE PRESENT... 40NM AND 120NM OUT RESPECTIVELY. MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA ALSO INDICATED THESE TWO EYEWALL FEATURES THIS MORNING. DESPITE THE PRESSURE LOWERING SLIGHTLY... THE 90 PERCENT REDUCTION RULE CONCERNING MAX FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS SUGGESTS A 95 KNOT HURRICANE. PLUS... THIS PRESENT EYEWALL CYCLE WOULD SUGGEST SLIGHT FILLING OF THE CYCLONE AND THE WINDS LIKELY BROADENING THROUGHOUT THE SYSTEM. OTHERWISE HELENE SHOWS TRUE SYMMETRY... A DEEP CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND A WELL-DEFINED EYE FEATURE ALL INDICATIVE OF A MATURE HURRICANE UNDERGOING FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300 DEGREES AT 8 KTS AND THIS MOTION SHOULD PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT... A QUICK RECURVATURE TO THE NORTH... EVENTUALLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND PICKING UP FORWARD MOMENTUM. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND OBJECTIVE AIDS SUGGEST THIS AS THE UPPER LOW AND AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH UPSTREAM NEAR THE EAST COAST BREAKS DOWN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. HELENE SHOULD BEGIN THIS NORTHWARD TREND DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND BEFORE REACHING 60W LONGITUDE. HPC GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS/GFDL AND UKMET ALONG WITH DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/2100Z 24.6N 54.1W 95 KT 12HR VT 20/0600Z 25.2N 55.2W 95 KT 24HR VT 20/1800Z 26.7N 56.5W 100 KT 36HR VT 21/0600Z 28.9N 56.8W 95 KT 48HR VT 21/1800Z 32.0N 56.3W 90 KT 72HR VT 22/1800Z 39.0N 51.5W 90 KT 96HR VT 23/1800Z 45.3N 41.0W 80 KT 120HR VT 24/1800Z 49.0N 30.5W 70 KT EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER MUSHER ** WTCA43 TJSJ 192055 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN HELENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 30 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL082006 EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO DE PREDICCIONES HIDROMETEOROLOGICAS EN CAMP SPRINGS MD 500 PM AST MARTES 19 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 A LAS 500 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN HELENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 54.1 OESTE O COMO A 840 MILLAS...1350 KILOMETROS...AL SURESTE DE BERMUDA. HELENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH... 13 KM/HR Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 6 A 12 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 110 MPH...175 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN EL FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA UNAS 65 MILLAS...100 KILOMETROS...DESDE EL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 220 MILLAS...370 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA FUE DE 956 MILIBARAS...28.23 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 PM AST...24.6 NORTE...54.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...110 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...956 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR MUSHER ** WTPN31 PHNC 192200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02C WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191800Z --- NEAR 9.9N 159.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 9.9N 159.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 10.3N 161.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 11.1N 164.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 11.8N 167.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 12.7N 169.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 13.6N 172.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 14.1N 175.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 14.3N 177.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT --- REMARKS: 192200Z POSITION NEAR 10.0N 159.9W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200400Z, 201000Z, 201600Z AND 202200Z. ** WTPQ32 PGUM 192116 *** TCPPQ2 BULLETIN TYPHOON YAGI (16W) ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 8 AM GUAM LST WED SEP 20 2006 ...TYPHOON YAGI STRENGTHENING... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT...BUT INTERESTS IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS NORTH OF SAIPAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TYPHOON YAGI. THIS INCLUDES ALAMAGAN...PAGAN AND AGRIHAN. AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON YAGI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 156.2 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 690 MILES EAST OF AGRIHAN AND PAGAN 690 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN 760 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN 875 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. TYPHOON YAGI IS MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH. YAGI WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. YAGI IS NOW A CATEGORY 3 TYPHOON WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 115 MPH. TYPHOON YAGI IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER TODAY. REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...19.8 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 156.2 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 115 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 PM GUAM LST. $$ HENDRICKS ** WTPQ20 RJTD 192100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 192100UTC 43.7N 141.4E FAIR MOVE E 16KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 300NM EAST 160NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 202100UTC 50.2N 146.5E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP32 RJTD 192100 *** WARNING 192100. WARNING VALID 202100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0614 YAGI (0614) 950 HPA AT 19.8N 156.3E SOUTHEAST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 170 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 202100UTC AT 19.3N 149.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 192100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0614 YAGI (0614) ANALYSIS PSTN 192100UTC 19.8N 156.3E GOOD MOVE W 08KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 170NM FORECAST 24HF 202100UTC 19.3N 149.6E 80NM 70% MOVE W 15KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT 45HF 211800UTC 21.1N 144.7E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 14KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT 69HF 221800UTC 26.1N 140.7E 270NM 70% MOVE NW 15KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT = ** WTNT32 KNHC 192352 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE GORDON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 36A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 800 PM AST TUE SEP 19 2006 ...GORDON NEARING THE CENTRAL AZORES... AT 8 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF THE AZORES HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AZORES ISLANDS OF CORVO AND FLORES. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZORES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.0 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES... 275 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLAND OF TERCEIRA AND ABOUT 240 MILES...385 KM...WEST OF THE ISLAND OF SAO MIGUEL IN THE AZORES. GORDON IS RACING EASTWARD NEAR 33 MPH...54 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...GORDON WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ISLANDS OF THE AZORES TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. GORDON IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. GORDON SHOULD BECOME A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES. LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ALONG WITH STORM SURGES OF 1 TO 3 FT ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE AZORES. GORDON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE AZORES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...37.8 N...30.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST NEAR 33 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER PASCH