** WTSR20 WSSS 190600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 191200 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY YAGI 0614 (0614) INITIAL TIME 191200 UTC 00HR 20.0N 157.9E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 330KM 50KTS 130KM P12HR W 15KM/H P+24HR 19.7N 153.5E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 21.2N 148.2E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 25.2N 143.2E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 191200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY 0614 (0614) INITIAL TIME 191200 UTC 00HR 20.0N 157.9E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 330KM 50KTS 130KM P12HR W 15KM/H P+24HR 19.7N 153.5E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 21.2N 148.2E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 25.2N 143.2E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 191200 *** WARNING 191200. WARNING VALID 201200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 985 HPA AT 43.5N 138.4E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 11 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 46.6N 145.2E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 50.0N 148.7E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 191200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 191200UTC 43.5N 138.4E FAIR MOVE NE 11KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 201200UTC 50.0N 148.7E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP22 RJTD 191200 *** WARNING 191200. WARNING VALID 201200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0614 YAGI (0614) 960 HPA AT 20.0N 157.8E SOUTHEAST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 19.3N 152.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 211200UTC AT 20.9N 147.1E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 26.0N 142.0E WITH 270 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 191200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0614 YAGI (0614) ANALYSIS PSTN 191200UTC 20.0N 157.8E GOOD MOVE W 07KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 201200UTC 19.3N 152.9E 80NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 48HF 211200UTC 20.9N 147.1E 150NM 70% MOVE W 14KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT 72HF 221200UTC 26.0N 142.0E 270NM 70% MOVE NW 17KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 191200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY S"NDC{3F 0614 (0614) INITIAL TIME 191200 UTC 00HR 20.0N 157.9E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 330KM 50KTS 130KM P12HR W 15KM/H P+24HR 19.7N 153.5E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 21.2N 148.2E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 25.2N 143.2E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTPA23 PHFO 191430 *** TCMCP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022006 1500 UTC TUE SEP 19 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 159.1W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 159.1W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 158.4W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 10.5N 161.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 11.1N 164.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 65NE 35SE 35SW 65NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 11.8N 166.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 15SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT... 85NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 12.5N 169.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 15SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 70SW 85NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 13.6N 172.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 25SE 20SW 45NW. 34 KT...110NE 85SE 80SW 95NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 14.2N 175.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 14.5N 177.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.1N 159.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER TANABE/HOUSTON ** WTPA33 PHFO 191430 *** TCPCP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022006 500 AM HST TUE SEP 19 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN OCEAN FAR SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AT 500 AM HST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 159.1 WEST OR ABOUT 780 MILES SOUTH OF HONOLULU...HAWAII AND ABOUT 835 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. TWO-C IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. TWO-C IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM HST POSITION...10.1 N...159.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM HST. $$ FORECASTER TANABE/HOUSTON ** WTNT22 KNHC 191431 *** TCMAT2 HURRICANE GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1500 UTC TUE SEP 19 2006 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 35.4W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 27 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 35SE 35SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 100SE 150SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 225SE 225SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 35.4W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 37.1W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 38.1N 30.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 30SE 30SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 100SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 39.0N 22.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 150SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 41.0N 14.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...125NE 175SE 175SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.0N 35.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT42 KNHC 191433 *** TCDAT2 HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 19 2006 THERE IS ONLY A HINT OF AN EYE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS VERY WELL ORGANIZED FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT SUCH HIGH LATITUDE...AND IT IS STILL DETACHED FROM ANY FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE WEAKENING TREND HAS ALREADY BEGUN AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 75 KNOTS. SINCE GORDON IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM...IT SHOULD BECOME A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. ALL PHASE DIAGRAMS FROM FSU SUGGEST THAT GORDON SHOULD BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL SOON. HOWEVER...IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THE PRECISE TIMING OF THIS OCCURRENCE. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT GORDON IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AZORES AS A HURRICANE. GORDON IS ALREADY EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES AND IS MOVING EASTWARD OR 090 DEGREES AT 27 KNOTS. THIS FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST SO GORDON SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING GORDON ACROSS THE AZORES TODAY AND NEAR NORTHWESTERN SPAIN ON THURSDAY AS A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. BY THEN...THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE ALREADY ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER FRONTAL SYSTEM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/1500Z 38.0N 35.4W 75 KT 12HR VT 20/0000Z 38.1N 30.1W 65 KT 24HR VT 20/1200Z 39.0N 22.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 21/0000Z 41.0N 14.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 21/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT32 KNHC 191434 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 AM AST TUE SEP 19 2006 ...GORDON RACING EASTWARD TOWARD THE AZORES... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.4 WEST OR ABOUT 455 MILES... 730 KM...WEST OF LAJES AIR FORCE BASE IN THE AZORES. GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 31 MPH...50 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS TRACK WOULD BRING GORDON ACROSS THE AZORES TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. GORDON IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. GORDON IS EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE AS IT PASSES NEAR OR ACROSS THE AZORES ISLANDS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES. LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ALONG WITH STORM SURGES OF 1 TO 3 FT ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE AZORES. GORDON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE AZORES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...38.0 N...35.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST NEAR 31 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPN32 PGTW 191500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 16W (YAGI) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191200Z --- NEAR 20.0N 157.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 157.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 20.0N 156.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 20.1N 153.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 20.5N 150.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 21.7N 147.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 25.2N 143.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 29.6N 142.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 35.5N 143.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 191500Z POSITION NEAR 20.0N 157.3E. TYPHOON (TY) 16W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 740 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.// ** WTNT33 KNHC 191449 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 1100 AM AST TUE SEP 19 2006 ...HELENE STILL A LARGE CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE... AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.9 WEST OR ABOUT 895 MILES... 1445 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...24.6 N...52.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER MUSHER ** WTNT23 KNHC 191450 *** TCMAT3 HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 1500 UTC TUE SEP 19 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 52.9W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT.......100NE 75SE 60SW 100NW. 34 KT.......200NE 150SE 125SW 175NW. 12 FT SEAS..375NE 375SE 240SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 52.9W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 52.5W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 25.0N 54.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...105NE 75SE 60SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 150SE 130SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 25.9N 55.7W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 85SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 160SE 130SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 27.5N 56.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 55SE 45SW 50NW. 50 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...225NE 190SE 150SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 29.7N 56.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. 34 KT...225NE 190SE 160SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 35.0N 55.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT...110NE 95SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT...225NE 200SE 170SW 190NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 39.5N 49.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 45.0N 40.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 52.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER MUSHER ** WTNT43 KNHC 191454 *** TCDAT3 HURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 19 2006 HURRICANE HELENE REMAINS AN IMPRESSIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM IS SLIGHTLY ELONGATED BUT MAINTAINS ITS CENTRAL CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION... EYE FEATURE AND ALMOST PERFECT OUTFLOW. DVORAK INTENSITY T-NUMBERS PERSIST AT 5.5 FROM ALL AGENCIES... THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 100 KTS AND THE INITIAL MOTION WILL BE 285/7. AT THIS MOMENT AND FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO... HELENE WILL REMAIN UNDER A DOMINANT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BASED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS RIDGE WILL SHOULD STEER HELENE OFF TO THE WEST NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND PERHAPS ALLOW FOR SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING. A LARGE UPPER LOW... JUST OFF THE EAST COAST... AND VERY AMPLFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH... OVER THE EASTERN STATES... WILL THEN PHASE AND BEGIN TO INFLUENCE HELENE. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL BREAK DOWN... HELENE WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE STRONG WESTERLIES AND BEGIN TO RECURVE/PROGRESS RAPIDLY DOWNSTREAM INTO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC. AFTER 36 HOURS... HELENE SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS/OBJECTIVE AIDS AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH THIS OVERALL TRACK AND RECURVATURE BEFORE 60W. THE ONLY SPREAD WITH THE GUIDANCE IS THE FORWARD SPEED AS HELENE TURNS NORTHWARD AND THE WESTERLIES BECOME INVOLVED. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE UKMET AND ESPECIALLY THE HI-RES ECMWF ARE THE SLOWEST SOLUTIONS INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HPC WILL FOLLOW THE CLOSE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS... WHICH IS A COMPROMISE OF THESE TWO IDEAS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/1500Z 24.6N 52.9W 100 KT 12HR VT 20/0000Z 25.0N 54.1W 105 KT 24HR VT 20/1200Z 25.9N 55.7W 110 KT 36HR VT 21/0000Z 27.5N 56.5W 110 KT 48HR VT 21/1200Z 29.7N 56.7W 105 KT 72HR VT 22/1200Z 35.0N 55.0W 100 KT 96HR VT 23/1200Z 39.5N 49.5W 90 KT 120HR VT 24/1200Z 45.0N 40.5W 80 KT $$ FORECASTER MUSHER ** WTPA43 PHFO 191500 *** TCDCP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022006 500 AM HST TUE SEP 19 2006 CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION NEAR TWO-C CONTINUES TO MAKE FINDING THE CENTER DIFFICULT. IN ADDITION...THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION SHIFTED DURING THE 0800 TO 1000 UTC GOES11 ECLIPSE. AT 0800 UTC...THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE ROUGHLY CENTERED CLOSE TO 10N...BUT AT 1000 UTC THE CENTER OF THE CONVECTION WAS CLOSER TO 9.3N. AGENCY FIXES FROM AROUND 1200 UTC RANGED FROM 9.3N TO TO 10.0N LATITUDE AND FROM 158.2W TO 158.9W LONGITUDE. DO NOT SEE ANY REASON AS TO WHY THE CIRCULATION CENTER WOULD HAVE A SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT...SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE LATITUDE OF 9.9N AND SELECTED 158.4W BASED LARGELY IN PART ON EXTRAPOLATION OF THE WESTWARD MOVEMENT. OVERALL CONVECTION NEAR TWO-C HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. WITH ONE EXCEPTION OF 1.0...AGENCY FIXES AT 1200 UTC MAINTAINED A 1.5 WHICH CORRESPONDS TO A MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF 25 KNOTS. A HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0454 UTC SHOWED 30 KNOT WINDS NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. WITH NO MARKED CHANGE IN THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS...HAVE PRESERVED THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT. A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FAR NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF TWO-C. DEEP LAYER MEAN WINDS IN THE AREA WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST AT 15 MPH THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN WEAKEN TO 10 KT. IN RESPONSE...HAVE INCREASED THE WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF TWO-C THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT COMPENSATED WITH SLOWER WESTWARD MOVEMENT FROM 72 TO 120 HOURS AS THE STEERING FLOW WEAKENS. THE NET RESULT IS ROUGHLY A 60 NM SHIFT TO THE WEST AT 120 HOURS. THE TRACK WAS ALSO NUDGED TO THE SOUTH OR LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK BUT STILL REMAINS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OR RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST KEEPS TWO-C OVER THE OPEN OCEAN AND AWAY FROM ANY MAJOR PACIFIC ISLANDS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/1500Z 10.1N 159.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 20/0000Z 10.5N 161.1W 40 KT 24HR VT 20/1200Z 11.1N 164.1W 45 KT 36HR VT 21/0000Z 11.8N 166.8W 55 KT 48HR VT 21/1200Z 12.5N 169.1W 60 KT 72HR VT 22/1200Z 13.6N 172.6W 70 KT 96HR VT 23/1200Z 14.2N 175.5W 75 KT 120HR VT 24/1200Z 14.5N 177.6W 75 KT $$ FORECASTER TANABE/HOUSTON ** WTPQ32 PGUM 191533 *** TCPPQ2 BULLETIN TYPHOON YAGI (16W) ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 2 AM GUAM LST WED SEP 20 2006 ...TYPHOON YAGI MOVING WEST... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT...BUT INTERESTS IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS NORTH OF SAIPAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TYPHOON YAGI. THIS INCLUDES ALAMAGAN...PAGAN AND AGRIHAN. AT 1 AM GUAM LST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON YAGI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 157.3 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 760 MILES EAST OF AGRIHAN AND PAGAN 830 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN 945 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. TYPHOON YAGI IS MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 105 MPH. TYPHOON YAGI IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TODAY. REPEATING THE 1 AM POSITION...20.0 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 157.3 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 105 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 AM GUAM LST. $$ HENDRICKS ** WTJP31 RJTD 191500 *** WARNING 191500. WARNING VALID 201500. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 985 HPA AT 43.8N 139.0E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 200300UTC AT 47.3N 145.8E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. FORECAST POSITION FOR 201500UTC AT 50.7N 148.1E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 191500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 191500UTC 43.8N 139.0E FAIR MOVE NE 12KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 201500UTC 50.7N 148.1E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTCA42 TJSJ 191553 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN GORDON ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 35 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 AM AST LUNES 18 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...GORDON MOVIENDOSE RAPIDAMENTE AL ESTE HACIA LAS AZORES... UN AVISO DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA TODAS LAS ISLAS AZORES. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO EN LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN SER COMPLETADOS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA SOBRE SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS O AVISOS...DEBEN MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 1100 AM AST...1500Z..SEGUN LA IMAGEN DEL SATELITE...EL OJO DEL HURACAN GORDON ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 38.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 35.4 OESTE O COMO A 455 MILLAS...730 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE DE LA BASE AEREA EN AZORES. GORDON SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL ESTE A CERCA DE 31 MPH...50 KM/HR Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA GORDON ESTARA EN LAS ISLAS AZORES ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN DISMINUIDO A CERCA DE 85 MPH...140 KM/HR CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. GORDON ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA DOS EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR SIMPSON. SE ESPERA QUE GORDON SEA UN HURACAN A MEDIDA QUE PASA CERCA DE LAS ISLAS AZORES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 40 MILLAS...65 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 175 MILLAS...185 KM. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 979 MILIBARAS...28.91 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES OLAS ROMPIENTES GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS CON MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS EN AREAS DE LAS COSTAS DE LAS AZORES. SE ESPERA QUE GORDON PRODUZCA CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS SOBRE PARTES DE LAS AZORES...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 6 PULGADAS SOBRE TERRENO EMPINADO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 AM AST...38.0 NORTE...35.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL ESTE A CERCA DE 31 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...85 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...979 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 PM AST SEGUIDA POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE/PASCH ** WTCA43 TJSJ 191555 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN HELENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 29 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 AM AST MARTES 19 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...HURACAN HELENE AUN ES UN EXTENSO HURACAN CATEGORIA TRES... A LAS 1100 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN HELENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 52.9 OESTE O COMO A 895 MILLAS...1445 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE SURESTE DE BERMUDA. HELENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH... 13 KM/HR Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 115 MPH...185 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA UNAS 70 MILLAS...110 KILOMETROS...DESDE EL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 230 MILLAS...370 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA FUE DE 960 MILIBARAS...28.35 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 AM AST...24.4 NORTE...52.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...115 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...960 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR MUSHER ** WTJP32 RJTD 191500 *** WARNING 191500. WARNING VALID 201500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0614 YAGI (0614) 960 HPA AT 19.9N 157.2E SOUTHEAST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 201500UTC AT 19.4N 152.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 191500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0614 YAGI (0614) ANALYSIS PSTN 191500UTC 19.9N 157.2E GOOD MOVE W 10KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 201500UTC 19.4N 152.0E 80NM 70% MOVE W 12KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 45HF 211200UTC 20.9N 147.1E 150NM 70% MOVE W 14KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT 69HF 221200UTC 26.0N 142.0E 270NM 70% MOVE NW 17KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT = ** WTNT32 KNHC 191739 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE GORDON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 35A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 200 PM AST TUE SEP 19 2006 ...GORDON EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AZORES TONIGHT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.0 WEST OR ABOUT 380 MILES... 610 KM...WEST OF THE ISLAND OF TERCEIRA IN THE AZORES. GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD ON A GENERAL EASTWARD TRACK NEAR 31 MPH...50 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS TRACK WOULD BRING GORDON ACROSS THE AZORES TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. GORDON IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. GORDON IS EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE AS IT PASSES NEAR OR ACROSS THE AZORES ISLANDS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES. LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ALONG WITH STORM SURGES OF 1 TO 3 FT ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE AZORES. GORDON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE AZORES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...37.8 N...34.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST NEAR 31 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTCA42 TJSJ 191750 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN GORDON ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 35A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL072006 200 PM AST MARTES 19 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...SE ESPERA QUE GORDON CRUZE LAS AZORES HOY... UN AVISO DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA TODAS LAS ISLAS AZORES. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO EN LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN SER COMPLETADOS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA SOBRE SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS O AVISOS...DEBEN MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 200 PM AST...1800Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN GORDON ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 37.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 34.0 OESTE O COMO A 380 MILLAS...610 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE DE LA BASE AEREA EN AZORES. GORDON SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL ESTE A CERCA DE 31 MPH...50 KM/HR Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA GORDON ESTARA EN LAS ISLAS AZORES ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN DISMINUIDO A CERCA DE 85 MPH...140 KM/HR CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SIN EMBARGO...VIENTOS MAS FUERTES...ESPECIALMENTE EN RAFAGAS...SON POSIBLES SOBRE ELEVACIONES ALTAS. GORDON ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE ESPERA QUE GORDON SEA UN HURACAN A MEDIDA QUE PASA CERCA O A TRAVES DE LAS AZORES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 40 MILLAS...65 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 175 MILLAS...185 KM. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 979 MILIBARAS...28.91 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES OLAS ROMPIENTES GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS CON MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS EN AREAS DE LAS COSTAS DE LAS AZORES. SE ESPERA QUE GORDON PRODUZCA CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS SOBRE PARTES DE LAS AZORES...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 6 PULGADAS SOBRE TERRENO EMPINADO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 200 PM AST...37.8 NORTE...34.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL ESTE A CERCA DE 31 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...85 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...979 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR AVILA