** WTIN20 DEMS 190618 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 19-09-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH BAY OF BENGAL ,NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 25 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????????? ** WTPQ20 BABJ 190600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY YAGI 0614 (0614) INITIAL TIME 190600 UTC 00HR 20.0N 158.6E 965HPA 38M/S 30KTS 330KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR W 10KM/H P+24HR 20.4N 153.8E 955HPA 40M/S P+48HR 20.7N 148.0E 945HPA 45M/S P+72HR 24.0N 142.4E 945HPA 45M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 190600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 190600UTC 42.8N 137.2E FAIR MOVE NE 14KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 200600UTC 48.1N 147.5E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP21 RJTD 190600 *** WARNING 190600. WARNING VALID 200600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 985 HPA AT 42.8N 137.2E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 14 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 44.5N 141.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 48.1N 147.5E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 190600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 28 NAME TD 0613 SHANSHAN ANALYSIS POSITION 190600UTC 42.8N 137.2E MOVEMENT NE 14KT PRES 985HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTJP22 RJTD 190600 *** WARNING 190600. WARNING VALID 200600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0614 YAGI (0614) 960 HPA AT 20.0N 158.6E SOUTHEAST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 19.7N 155.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 20.2N 149.2E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 220600UTC AT 24.3N 143.0E WITH 270 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 190600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0614 YAGI (0614) ANALYSIS PSTN 190600UTC 20.0N 158.6E GOOD MOVE WSW SLOWLY PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 200600UTC 19.7N 155.2E 80NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 48HF 210600UTC 20.2N 149.2E 150NM 70% MOVE W 14KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT 72HF 220600UTC 24.3N 143.0E 270NM 70% MOVE WNW 17KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 190600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.20 FOR STS 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 190600 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE. STS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS. STS WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 190600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 5 NAME TY 0614 YAGI ANALYSIS POSITION 190600UTC 20.0N 158.6E MOVEMENT WSW 4KT PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 200600UTC 19.9N 154.8E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 945HPA 84KT 48HR POSITION 210600UTC 20.8N 149.8E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 940HPA 87KT 72HR POSITION 220600UTC 23.6N 144.4E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 940HPA 87KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ31 RJTD 190600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 6 FOR TY 0614 YAGI (0614) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 190600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL ACCELERATE FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE. TY WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NORTHWEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPA33 PHFO 190830 *** TCPCP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022006 1100 PM HST MON SEP 18 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD FAR SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AT 1100 PM HST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 158.1 WEST OR ABOUT 780 MILES SOUTH OF HONOLULU...HAWAII AND ABOUT 895 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. TWO-C IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM HST POSITION...10.0 N...158.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM HST. $$ FORECASTER TANABE/HOUSTON ** WTPA23 PHFO 190830 *** TCMCP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022006 0900 UTC TUE SEP 19 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 158.1W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 158.1W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 157.5W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 10.3N 159.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 10.8N 162.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 65NE 35SE 35SW 65NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 11.4N 164.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 12.0N 166.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 15SW 35NW. 34 KT... 95NE 75SE 70SW 85NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 13.4N 171.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 55NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 95SE 85SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 14.4N 174.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 14.8N 176.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.0N 158.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER TANABE/HOUSTON ** WTNT42 KNHC 190830 *** TCDAT2 HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 19 2006 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 085/24. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. GORDON IS NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP-LAYER MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PASSING BY GORDON TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING 55W LONGITUDE SHOULD ENSURE THAT GORDON WILL MAINTAIN ITS RAPID EASTERLY MOTION. GORDON IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AZORES ISLANDS IN 18-24 HOURS...AND THEN AFTERWARD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN IBERIAN PENINSULA AS A SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB AND 90 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. THE EYE HAS REMAINED NEARLY CLOUD-FREE AND DISTINCT DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...SO THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 90 KT. GORDON'S FAST FORWARD SPEED IS MINIMIZING ANY ADVERSE EFFECTS FROM THE 40-50 KT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ENCROACHING ON THE CYCLONE FROM THE WEST...SO THE ONLY FACTORS INHIBITING INTENSIFICATION WOULD BE COOLER SSTS OF 22C-23C AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY FAST FORWARD SPEED...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO INDUCE ANY RAPID WEAKENING BEFORE GORDON REACHES THE AZORES ISLANDS. THEREFORE...GORDON IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AZORES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GFDL AND SHIPS INTENSITY MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0900Z 38.1N 38.7W 90 KT 12HR VT 19/1800Z 38.3N 33.6W 75 KT...APPROACHING AZORES 24HR VT 20/0600Z 38.8N 26.1W 65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 20/1800Z 40.8N 17.9W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 21/0600Z 43.6N 8.8W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 22/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTNT22 KNHC 190831 *** TCMAT2 HURRICANE GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 0900 UTC TUE SEP 19 2006 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 38.7W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 85 DEGREES AT 24 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 35SE 35SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 100SE 100SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 150SE 225SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 38.7W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 40.2W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 38.3N 33.6W...APPROACHING AZORES ISLANDS MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 30SE 30SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 110SE 110SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 38.8N 26.1W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 140SE 140SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 40.8N 17.9W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 75SE 75SW 40NW. 34 KT...125NE 175SE 175SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 43.6N 8.8W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 80SE 80SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 200SE 200SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.1N 38.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTNT32 KNHC 190831 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 500 AM AST TUE SEP 19 2006 ...GORDON A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT CONTINUES TO TAKE AIM ON THE AZORES ISLANDS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE AZORES METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF THE WELL-DEFINED EYE OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.7 WEST OR ABOUT 630 MILES...1010 KM...WEST OF TERCEIRA IN THE AZORES ISLANDS. GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 28 MPH...44 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...GORDON WILL PASS NEAR OR MOVE ACROSS THE AZORES LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR ...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GORDON IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ALTHOUGH SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...GORDON IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE AS IT PASSES NEAR OR ACROSS THE AZORES ISLANDS. IN ADDITION...STRONGER WINDS WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE AZORES. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ALONG WITH STORM SURGES OF 1 TO 3 FT ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE AZORES. GORDON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE AZORES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...38.1 N...38.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST NEAR 28 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTNT33 KNHC 190844 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 500 AM AST TUE SEP 19 2006 ...HELENE STILL A LARGE CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE... AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.1 WEST OR ABOUT 945 MILES...1520 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR... AND A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HELENE REMAINS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...24.4 N...52.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART ** WTNT23 KNHC 190845 *** TCMAT3 HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 0900 UTC TUE SEP 19 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 52.1W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT.......100NE 75SE 60SW 100NW. 34 KT.......200NE 150SE 125SW 175NW. 12 FT SEAS..375NE 375SE 240SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 52.1W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 51.8W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 24.6N 53.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 150SE 125SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 25.1N 55.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 150SE 125SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 26.4N 56.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 100NW. 34 KT...225NE 175SE 150SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 28.3N 57.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 100NW. 34 KT...225NE 175SE 150SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 33.6N 56.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 100NW. 34 KT...225NE 175SE 150SW 175NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 38.0N 52.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 42.0N 45.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 52.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART ** WTNT43 KNHC 190846 *** TCDAT3 HURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 19 2006 AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH HELENE HAS BECOME ELONGATED NORTH TO SOUTH. A 0449 UTC AQUA MICROWAVE OVERPASS SUGGESTED THAT THE EYEWALL WAS OPEN TO THE SOUTHWEST...BUT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE AROUND THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE. DVORAK INTENSITY T-NUMBERS REMAIN 5.5 FROM ALL AGENCIES AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 100 KT. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING AS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT AND SSTS WARM. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HELENE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE ANTICIPATED WESTWARD MOTION APPEARS TO HAVE STARTED AS INDICATED BY AN INITIAL MOTION OF 285/7. IN FACT...THE MOTION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS BEEN NEARLY DUE WEST. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUILDS NORTH OF HELENE AS HURRICANE GORDON CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. THE GFDL MODEL ACTUALLY FORECASTS A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST MOTION TODAY. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO TURN NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 36 HOURS...THEREAFTER IT IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE EASTWARD CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE GFDL TRACK. AT DAYS 4 AND 5...THE NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...BUT IT IS NOT AS FAST AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS OR GFDL MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0900Z 24.4N 52.1W 100 KT 12HR VT 19/1800Z 24.6N 53.4W 105 KT 24HR VT 20/0600Z 25.1N 55.0W 110 KT 36HR VT 20/1800Z 26.4N 56.3W 110 KT 48HR VT 21/0600Z 28.3N 57.1W 110 KT 72HR VT 22/0600Z 33.6N 56.1W 100 KT 96HR VT 23/0600Z 38.0N 52.0W 90 KT 120HR VT 24/0600Z 42.0N 45.0W 80 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART ** WTCA43 TJSJ 190849 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN HELENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 28 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL082006 500 AM AST MARTES 19 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...HURACAN HELENE AUN ES UN EXTENSO HURACAN CATEGORIA TRES... A LAS 500 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN HELENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 52.1 OESTE O COMO A 945 MILLAS...1520 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE SURESTE DE BERMUDA. HELENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH... 13 KM/HR Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 115 MPH...185 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. HELENE ES UN HURACAN GRANDE. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA UNAS 70 MILLAS...110 KILOMETROS...DESDE EL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 230 MILLAS...370 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA FUE DE 960 MILIBARAS...28.35 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 AM AST...24.4 NORTE...52.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...115 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...960 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BROWN/STEWART ** WTPN32 PGTW 190900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 16W (YAGI) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 190600Z --- NEAR 20.0N 158.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 158.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 19.9N 157.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 19.9N 155.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 20.1N 152.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 20.9N 149.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 24.2N 144.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 28.5N 141.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 33.1N 142.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT --- REMARKS: 190900Z POSITION NEAR 20.0N 158.3E. TYPHOON (TY) 16W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 790 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z, 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z.// ** WTPA43 PHFO 190905 *** TCDCP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022006 1100 PM HST MON SEP 18 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES WESTWARD WELL SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS...TWO-C HAS STARTED TO SHOW SIGNS OF BETTER ORGANIZATION AND CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS INCREASED. CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASE IN CONVECTION HAS ALSO MADE IT MORE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE EXACT CENTER. THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED WAS INCREASED TO 30 KNOTS BASED ON AGENCY FIXES OF 1.5 AND QUIKSCAT DATA. WINDSAT DATA AT 0416 UTC DID INDICATE SOME 40 KNOT WINDS NORTH OF THE CENTER NEAR 10.5N LATITUDE...BUT THESE SEEMED UNREASONABLE AND WERE DISCOUNTED. THE FORECAST TRACK OF TWO-C HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD OR TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WHICH RELIED EXCLUSIVELY ON THE BETA ADVECTION AND PERSISTENCE/CLIMATOLOGY MODELS. THE CURRENT GUIDANCE SUITE...INCLUDING GFDL...GFS...UKMET...AND CONU FORECASTS...SHOWS A CONSIDERABLE SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH BEYOND 36 HOURS...TAKING TWO-C ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. DEEP LAYER MEAN WINDS THAT WOULD HELP TO STEER THIS STORM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALMOST FROM DUE EAST...WHICH ADDS CREDENCE TO THE MORE WESTWARD MOVEMENT. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS AND SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE GFDL TRACK THEREAFTER...WHICH IS NOT QUITE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CONU. WIND RADII WERE ALSO EXPANDED PRIMARILY THROUGH 36 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED IN INTENSITY AND QUIKSCAT DATA. WIND RADII REMAIN LARGEST IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STORM...WHERE THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STORM AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST IS THE STRONGEST. THE FORECAST INTENSITY WAS INCREASED THROUGH 36 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASE IN INITIAL INTENSITY. THERE IS VERY LITTLE SHEAR NEAR TWO-C AT THE MOMENT AND MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TWO-C WILL ENCOUNTER LITTLE TO NO VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPERIMENTAL VERTICAL SHEAR ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMMS CONCUR...AND LIST DEVELOPMENT OUTLOOK AS VERY FAVORABLE IN THE NEAR TERM. TWO-C IS SPINNING OVER SSTS OF 28 DEGREES CELSIUS AND GIVEN ITS FORECAST TRACK WILL REMAIN OVER WATER NEAR 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. ALL SIGNS THEREFORE...ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. AS IT STANDS...TWO-C IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM EARLY TUESDAY...AND REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH WEDNESDAY. ITS PROJECTED PATH THROUGH 120 HOURS KEEPS TWO-C OVER WATER AND AWAY FROM ANY MAJOR PACIFIC ISLANDS. THE SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 36 HOURS ALSO PLACES TWO-C FURTHER AWAY FROM JOHNSTON ISLAND. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0900Z 10.0N 158.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 19/1800Z 10.3N 159.8W 40 KT 24HR VT 20/0600Z 10.8N 162.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 20/1800Z 11.4N 164.2W 55 KT 48HR VT 21/0600Z 12.0N 166.5W 65 KT 72HR VT 22/0600Z 13.4N 171.1W 75 KT 96HR VT 23/0600Z 14.4N 174.3W 80 KT 120HR VT 24/0600Z 14.8N 176.5W 80 KT $$ FORECASTER TANABE/HOUSTON ** WTPQ20 RJTD 190900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 190900UTC 43.1N 137.7E FAIR MOVE NE 12KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 200900UTC 48.9N 148.6E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP31 RJTD 190900 *** WARNING 190900. WARNING VALID 200900. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 985 HPA AT 43.1N 137.7E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 192100UTC AT 45.4N 142.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 200900UTC AT 48.9N 148.6E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTJP32 RJTD 190900 *** WARNING 190900. WARNING VALID 200900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0614 YAGI (0614) 960 HPA AT 20.1N 158.3E SOUTHEAST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 200900UTC AT 19.4N 154.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 190900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0614 YAGI (0614) ANALYSIS PSTN 190900UTC 20.1N 158.3E GOOD MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 200900UTC 19.4N 154.1E 80NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 45HF 210600UTC 20.2N 149.2E 150NM 70% MOVE W 14KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT 69HF 220600UTC 24.3N 143.0E 270NM 70% MOVE WNW 17KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT = ** WTPQ32 PGUM 191000 *** TCPPQ2 BULLETIN TYPHOON YAGI (16W) ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 8 PM GUAM LST TUE SEP 19 2006 ...TYPHOON YAGI STARTING TO MOVE WEST... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT...BUT INTERESTS IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS NORTH OF SAIPAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TYPHOON YAGI. THIS INCLUDES ALAMAGAN...PAGAN AND AGRIHAN. AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON YAGI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 158.3 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 825 MILES EAST OF AGRIHAN AND PAGAN 895 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN 1005 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. TYPHOON YAGI IS MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 105 MPH. TYPHOON YAGI IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER OVERNIGHT. REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...20.0 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 158.3 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 105 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 AM GUAM LST WEDNESDAY MORNING. $$ MIDDLEBROOKE ** WTPN31 PHNC 191000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02C WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 190600Z --- NEAR 9.9N 157.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 9.9N 157.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 10.3N 159.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 10.8N 162.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 11.4N 164.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 12.0N 166.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 13.4N 171.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 14.4N 174.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 14.8N 176.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT --- REMARKS: 191000Z POSITION NEAR 10.0N 158.3W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191600Z, 192200Z, 200400Z AND 201000Z.// ** WTNT32 KNHC 191136 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE GORDON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 34A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 800 AM AST TUE SEP 19 2006 ...GORDON HEADING FOR THE AZORES... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE AZORES METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.2 WEST OR ABOUT 525 MILES...845 KM...WEST OF TERCEIRA IN THE AZORES ISLANDS. GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 28 MPH...44 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...GORDON WILL PASS NEAR OR MOVE ACROSS THE AZORES LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GORDON IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT GORDON IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE AS IT PASSES NEAR OR ACROSS THE AZORES ISLANDS. IN ADDITION...STRONGER WINDS WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE AZORES. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ALONG WITH STORM SURGES OF 1 TO 3 FT ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE AZORES. GORDON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE AZORES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...38.1 N...37.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST NEAR 28 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA