** WTPQ20 BABJ 190000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY YAGI 0614 (0614) INITIAL TIME 190000 UTC 00HR 20.1N 159.0E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 320KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR W 10KM/H P+24HR 20.3N 155.6E 965HPA 38M/S P+48HR 20.5N 151.6E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 23.0N 144.9E 950HPA 45M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 190000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY YAGI 0614 (0614) INITIAL TIME 190000 UTC 00HR 20.1N 159.0E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 320KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR W 10KM/H P+24HR 20.3N 155.6E 965HPA 38M/S P+48HR 20.5N 151.6E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 23.0N 144.9E 950HPA 45M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 190000 *** WARNING 190000. WARNING VALID 200000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 985 HPA AT 41.9N 135.7E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 08 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 43.8N 138.9E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 46.8N 145.2E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 190000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 190000UTC 41.9N 135.7E FAIR MOVE NNE 08KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 200000UTC 46.8N 145.2E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ21 RJTD 190000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0614 YAGI (0614) UPGRADED FROM STS ANALYSIS PSTN 190000UTC 20.2N 159.0E GOOD MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 55NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 200000UTC 20.3N 155.7E 80NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 210000UTC 20.4N 149.5E 150NM 70% MOVE W 14KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 72HF 220000UTC 24.0N 143.2E 270NM 70% MOVE WNW 17KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTJP22 RJTD 190000 *** WARNING 190000. WARNING VALID 200000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0614 YAGI (0614) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 970 HPA AT 20.2N 159.0E SOUTHEAST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 20.3N 155.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 20.4N 149.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 220000UTC AT 24.0N 143.2E WITH 270 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 190000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.19 FOR STS 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 190000 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE. STS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS. STS WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ31 RJTD 190000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 5 FOR TS 0614 YAGI (0614) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 190000 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL ACCELERATE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NORTHWEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTNT42 KNHC 190228 *** TCDAT2 HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 PM EDT MON SEP 18 2006 GORDON IS AN IMPRESSIVE HIGH-LATITUDE HURRICANE. IT HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A MOSTLY SOLID RING OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER... WHILE THE EYE RECENTLY HAS BEEN CONTRACTING. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE AT LEAST 77 KT... WHILE IN-HOUSE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE NEAR 93 KT. A WELL-TIMED HIGH-RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT MICROWAVE OVER THE HURRICANE AT 2215 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 85 KT. THUS THE INTENSITY IS BUMPED UP TO 85 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE ABOVE ESTIMATES. THE ONLY FACTOR THAT WOULD SUPPORT THE HURRICANE MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY IS COOLING UPPER-LEVEL TEMPERATURES... WHICH WOULD GENERALLY KEEP A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THAN NORMAL... AS DIAGNOSED BY SHIPS GUIDANCE. HOWEVER... IT DOESN'T SEEM LIKE GORDON CAN KEEP UP THIS INTENSITY FOR TOO MUCH LONGER BEFORE INCREASING SHEAR... COOLER SSTS... AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TAKE THEIR TOLL. ALL OF THESE EFFECTS WILL PROBABLY NOT WEAKEN GORDON VERY QUICKLY... AND IT IS BECOMING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES CLOSE TO THE AZORES. THEREFORE... A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE ISLANDS. HURRICANES ARE RARE BUT NOT UNPRECEDENTED IN THE AZORES. A QUICK CHECK OF THE 1851-2005 BEST TRACK DATABASE SHOWS THAT NINE HURRICANES HAVE IMPACTED THE AZORES DURING THIS TIME... THE MOST RECENT BEING CHARLEY OF 1992. GORDON IS ZIPPING EASTWARD TONIGHT... 085/24. TRACK MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON THIS GENERAL MOTION CONTINUING WITH SOME ACCELERATION FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THIS INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE HURRICANE BECOMING EMBEDDED IN FAST ZONAL FLOW BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS A COLD FRONT CATCHES UP TO GORDON AND WIND SHEAR INCREASES ABOVE 40 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED A BIT SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN GORDON AS A SEPARATE ENTITY FROM THE ONCOMING TROUGH FOR A LITTLE LONGER THAN EARLIER. THESE MODELS ALSO ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON GORDON BECOMING ABSORBED IN THIS TROUGH BY 72 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0300Z 38.0N 41.6W 85 KT 12HR VT 19/1200Z 38.2N 37.0W 75 KT 24HR VT 20/0000Z 38.3N 30.2W 65 KT 36HR VT 20/1200Z 39.5N 22.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 21/0000Z 42.0N 13.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 22/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH ** WTNT43 KNHC 190228 *** TCDAT3 HURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 PM EDT MON SEP 18 2006 ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN OF HELENE IS SLIGHTLY ELONGATED TO THE NORTH...THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE HAS BECOME MORE IMPRESSIVE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. CENTRAL CONVECTION IS COOLING AND THE EYE IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS RATHER SYMMETRICAL AND EXPANDING. DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 5.5 FROM ALL AGENCIES SUPPORT KEEPING THE INTENSITY AT 100 KT AT THIS TIME. THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER WARM OCEAN WATERS AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AND THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. INDEED...GIVEN THE INCREASING ORGANIZATION OF THE INNER CORE...THIS INTENSITY FORECAST COULD BE CONSERVATIVE... AND HELENE CERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE. HELENE IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...300/7. A MORE WESTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE GFDL MODEL EVEN DEPICTS A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IN 12 HOURS OR SO. BY 48 HOURS...HOWEVER...A VERY LARGE 500 MB TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD NEAR THE U.S. EAST COAST SHOULD INDUCE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST. IN 3 TO 5 DAYS HELENE SHOULD BEGIN TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AS WELL AS THE GFDL...AND ALSO SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0300Z 24.2N 51.4W 100 KT 12HR VT 19/1200Z 24.6N 52.7W 105 KT 24HR VT 20/0000Z 25.0N 54.4W 110 KT 36HR VT 20/1200Z 25.4N 55.9W 110 KT 48HR VT 21/0000Z 26.7N 57.1W 110 KT 72HR VT 22/0000Z 31.0N 58.0W 100 KT 96HR VT 23/0000Z 35.5N 56.0W 90 KT 120HR VT 24/0000Z 39.0N 51.0W 80 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTNT33 KNHC 190228 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 PM AST MON SEP 18 2006 ...LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE HELENE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT AT SEA... AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.4 WEST OR ABOUT 990 MILES... 1590 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HELENE IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...24.2 N...51.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTNT23 KNHC 190229 *** TCMAT3 HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 0300 UTC TUE SEP 19 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 51.4W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT.......100NE 75SE 60SW 100NW. 34 KT.......200NE 150SE 125SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 330SE 240SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 51.4W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 51.1W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 24.6N 52.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 150SE 125SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 25.0N 54.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 150SE 125SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 25.4N 55.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 175SE 125SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 26.7N 57.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 175SE 125SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 31.0N 58.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 175SE 125SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 35.5N 56.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 39.0N 51.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.2N 51.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTNT22 KNHC 190229 *** TCMAT2 HURRICANE GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 0300 UTC TUE SEP 19 2006 AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF THE AZORES HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WITH A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE AZORES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 41.6W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 85 DEGREES AT 24 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 35SE 35SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 100SE 100SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 150SE 225SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 41.6W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.9N 43.2W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 38.2N 37.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 35SE 35SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 100SE 100SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 38.3N 30.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 120SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 39.5N 22.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 75SE 75SW 40NW. 34 KT...125NE 175SE 175SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 42.0N 13.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 80SE 80SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 200SE 200SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.0N 41.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH ** WTNT32 KNHC 190230 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 PM AST MON SEP 18 2006 ...GORDON A LITTLE STRONGER... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE AZORES... AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF THE AZORES HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WITH A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE AZORES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR LATITUDE 38.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.6 WEST OR ABOUT 785 MILES... 1265 KM...WEST OF TERCEIRA IN THE AZORES. GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 28 MPH...44 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK GORDON WILL BE NEAR THE AZORES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GORDON IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON TUESDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB...28.70 INCHES. LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ALONG WITH STORM SURGES OF 1 TO 3 FT ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE AZORES. GORDON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE AZORES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...38.0 N...41.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST NEAR 28 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH ** WTCA42 TJSJ 190238 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN GORDON ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 33 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 PM AST LUNES 18 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...GORDON UN POCO MAS FUERTE... ...AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LAS ISLAS AZORES... A LAS 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...EL SERVICIO METEOROLOGICO DE LAS AZORES HA REEMPLAZADO LA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL POR UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LAS AZORES. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO EN LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN SER COMPLETADOS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA SOBRE SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS O AVISOS...DEBEN MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 1100 PM AST...0300Z..SEGUN LA IMAGEN DEL SATELITE...EL OJO DEL HURACAN GORDON ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 38.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 41.6 OESTE O COMO A 785 MILLAS...1265 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE DE TERCEIRA EN AZORES. GORDON SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL ESTE A CERCA DE 28 MPH...44 KM/HR Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA GORDON SE ACERCARA A LAS ISLAS AZORES EL MARTES EN LA TARDE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 100 MPH...160 KM/HR CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. GORDON ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA DOS EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR SIMPSON. ALGUN DEBILITAMIENTO LENTO SE PRONOSTICA PARA EL MARTES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 40 MILLAS...65 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KM. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 972 MILIBARAS...28.70 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES OLAS ROMPIENTES GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS CON MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS EN AREAS DE LAS COSTAS DE LAS AZORES. SE ESPERA QUE GORDON PRODUZCA CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS SOBRE PARTES DE LAS AZORES...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 6 PULGADAS SOBRE TERRENO EMPINADO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 PM AST...38.0 NORTE...41.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL ESTE A CERCA DE 28 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...100 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...972 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 AM AST SEGUIDA POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE/PASCH ** WTCA43 TJSJ 190243 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN HELENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 27 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 PM AST LUNES 18 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...EL HURACAN HELENE GRANDE Y POTENTE...SE PRONOSTICA QUE PERMANEZCA EN EL OCEANO... A LAS 1100 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN HELENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 51.4 OESTE O COMO A 990 MILLAS...1590 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE NORESTE DE BERMUDA. HELENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH... 13 KM/HR Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE HASTA EL MARTES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 115 MPH...185 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. LAS CONDICIONES PARECEN SER FAVORABLES PARA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. HELENE ES UN HURACAN GRANDE. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA UNAS 70 MILLAS...110 KILOMETROS...DESDE EL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 230 MILLAS...370 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA FUE DE 960 MILIBARAS...28.35 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 PM AST...24.2 NORTE...51.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...115 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...960 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR PASCH ** WTPA23 PHFO 190243 *** TCMCP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022006 0300 UTC TUE SEP 19 2006 SECOND TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE YEAR FORMS WELL SOUTH OF HAWAII AND IS NO THREAT TO LAND. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 157.2W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 157.2W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 156.6W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 10.4N 159.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 10.7N 161.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 11.2N 163.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 55SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 11.9N 165.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 15SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 65SW 85NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 13.7N 168.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 55NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 85SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 15.3N 172.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 16.4N 175.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.0N 157.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER NASH ** WTPA43 PHFO 190243 *** TCDCP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022006 500 PM HST MON SEP 18 2006 THAT AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING FOR DAYS HAS FINALLY GOTTEN ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THE SECOND ONE OF THE SEASON HERE IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. THE CONVECTION THAT FLARED LATE LAST NIGHT HAS DIMINISHED SOME TODAY...BUT FROM A MORNING QUICKSCAT PASS IT APPEARS AS THOUGH A DECENT SURFACE CIRCULATION IS IN PLACE. IN FACT QUICKSCAT DATA INDICATED A QUITE A FEW 35KT...ALBEIT RAIN FLAGGED...WIND BARBS AROUND THE CIRCULATION. WITH THE DEMISE OF CONVECTION SOME TODAY AND THE POORER LOOK ON SATELLITE...WILL START TD-2C AT A POTENTIALLY QUITE CONSERVATIVE 25KT. TD-2C IS IN A SIMILAR AREA TO WHERE IOKE GOT ITS BIRTH...AND THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS LOOK SIMILAR. VERY WARM WATER AND UPPER LEVEL SHEAR VALUES LESS THAN 10KT. CIRRUS FROM THE SYSTEM SHOW DECENT UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNELS TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. ONLY NEGATIVE IS THAT THERE IS STILL A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF ITCZ CONVECTION WITHIN 10 DEGREES SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. SUBSIDENCE AROUND THAT CONVECTION MAY BE HAMPERING TD-2C DEVELOPMENT. SOME MIXED SIGNALS WITH THE NEAR TERM FUTURE OF TD-2C ESPECIALLY WITH INTENSITY. LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE IS NOT AS GUNG-HO ON DEVELOPING IT MUCH FOR THE NEXT 48HRS...PERHAPS THIS IS DUE TO ITS PULSE DOWNWARD THIS MORNING. SURPRISINGLY EVEN THE GFDL...WHICH ACCURATELY PORTRAYED THE RAPID SPIN UP OF IOKE...IS LESS THAN ENTHUSIASTIC WITH TD-2C THRU 60HRS. IT KEEPS IT AS A TD/WEAK TS BEFORE FINALLY STRENGTHENING IT TO A STRONG TS THEN HURRICANE AFTER 96HRS. SHIPS GUIDANCE STEADILY STRENGTHENS IT TO TS IN 18HRS THEN TO MINIMAL HURRICANE IN 60HRS. SHOULD BE NOTED THAT EARLIER SHIPS GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING A 60 TO 80% LIKELIHOOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION (25KT INCREASE WITHIN 24HRS) BUT THE 00Z SHIPS WAS DOWN TO 36% CHANCE DUE TO THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION. DUE TO CONVECTION STILL WITH ITCZ...HAVE GIVEN CREDENCE TO A SLIGHTLY SLOWER START TO TD-2C. EXPECT IT TO CUT THE UMBILICAL CORD TO THE ITCZ TOMORROW AND AT THAT TIME WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP QUITE QUICKLY. WILL PROJECT HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 HRS. IF IT CAN NOT GET AWAY FROM THE ITCZ...IT MAY NOT HAVE MUCH OF A LIFE. AFTER THAT MAKE OR BREAK TIME...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN ACROSS 15N BETWEEN 160W AND 175W AND MAKING FOR A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. SORTA LIKE WHAT WE HAD WITH IOKE...SO DONT SEE ANY REASON FOR THE STORM TO NOT TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING HOWEVER I DONT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO BE FORECASTING A MAJOR HURRICANE THIS EARLY OUT. AS A RESULT THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND A LITTLE WEAKER THAN SHIPS THRU 24HRS...THEN CLOSE TO SHIPS IN THE MID TERM AND THEN SOMEWHAT ABOVE ALL GUIDANCE AFTER 72HRS. TRACK-WISE...MUCH MORE CONSISTENCY WITH VARIOUS MODELS...GENERALLY A WNW TRACK THRU THE PERIOD. DID SLOW THE FORWARD SPEED DOWN AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AS THE EXPECTED HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN A LIGHTER STEERING FLOW DUE TO THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. ON THE PROJECTED COURSE...THE SYSTEM WOULD PASS SAFELY OVER 200 MILES SOUTH OF JOHNSTON ATOLL LATE THURSDAY. HOWEVER INTERESTS AROUND JOHNSTON SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO LATER FORECASTS FROM CPHC. FOR WHAT IT MATTERS...IF TD-2C CAN ACHIEVE 35KTS IT WILL BE NAMED KIKA (KEE-KAH)...EMPHASIS ON FIRST SYLLABLE. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF MEANINGS FOR THIS WORD...AS A NOUN IT MEANS A SMALL OPELU FISH AND AS A VERB ONE MEANING IS STRONG AND ENERGETIC. THE VERB FORM IS THE ONE THAT WOULD BE MOST FITTING...ESPECIALLY IF IT DECIDES TO BECOME A HURRICANE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0300Z 10.0N 157.2W 25 KT 12HR VT 19/1200Z 10.4N 159.2W 30 KT 24HR VT 20/0000Z 10.7N 161.2W 40 KT 36HR VT 20/1200Z 11.2N 163.2W 55 KT 48HR VT 21/0000Z 11.9N 165.1W 65 KT 72HR VT 22/0000Z 13.7N 168.6W 75 KT 96HR VT 23/0000Z 15.3N 172.3W 80 KT 120HR VT 24/0000Z 16.4N 175.3W 80 KT $$ FORECASTER NASH ** WTPA33 PHFO 190243 *** TCPCP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022006 500 PM HST MON SEP 18 2006 SECOND TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE YEAR FORMS WELL SOUTH OF HAWAII AND IS NO THREAT TO LAND. AT 500 PM HST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 157.2 WEST OR ABOUT 780 MILES SOUTH OF HONOLULU OAHU. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM HST POSITION...10.0 N...157.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM HST. $$ FORECASTER NASH ** WTNT33 KNHC 190248 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 27...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 PM AST MON SEP 18 2006 ...ADDED EXPECTED MOTION SECTION... ...LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE HELENE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT AT SEA... AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.4 WEST OR ABOUT 990 MILES... 1590 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HELENE IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...24.2 N...51.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTCA43 TJSJ 190250 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN HELENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 27...CORREGIDO NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 PM AST LUNES 18 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...EL HURACAN HELENE GRANDE Y POTENTE...SE PRONOSTICA QUE PERMANEZCA EN EL OCEANO... A LAS 1100 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN HELENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 51.4 OESTE O COMO A 990 MILLAS...1590 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE NORESTE DE BERMUDA. HELENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH... 13 KM/HR Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 115 MPH...185 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. LAS CONDICIONES PARECEN SER FAVORABLES PARA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. HELENE ES UN HURACAN GRANDE. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA UNAS 70 MILLAS...110 KILOMETROS...DESDE EL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 230 MILLAS...370 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA FUE DE 960 MILIBARAS...28.35 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 PM AST...24.2 NORTE...51.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...115 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...960 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR PASCH ** WTJP31 RJTD 190300 *** WARNING 190300. WARNING VALID 200300. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 985 HPA AT 42.2N 136.5E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 11 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 191500UTC AT 44.1N 139.9E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 200300UTC AT 47.3N 146.3E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 190300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 190300UTC 42.2N 136.5E FAIR MOVE NE 11KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 200300UTC 47.3N 146.3E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPN31 PHNC 190400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MY/191851Z SEP 06// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02C WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 190000Z --- NEAR 9.9N 156.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 9.9N 156.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 10.4N 159.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 10.7N 161.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 11.2N 163.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 11.9N 165.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 13.7N 168.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 15.3N 172.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 16.4N 175.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT --- REMARKS: 190400Z POSITION NEAR 10.1N 157.5W. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 191821Z SEP 06 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 191830 ) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 7 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191000Z, 191600Z, 192200Z AND 200400Z.// ** WTPQ21 RJTD 190300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0614 YAGI (0614) ANALYSIS PSTN 190300UTC 20.1N 158.8E GOOD MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 55NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 200300UTC 20.1N 155.5E 80NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 210000UTC 20.4N 149.5E 150NM 70% MOVE W 14KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 69HF 220000UTC 24.0N 143.2E 270NM 70% MOVE WNW 17KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTJP32 RJTD 190300 *** WARNING 190300. WARNING VALID 200300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0614 YAGI (0614) 970 HPA AT 20.1N 158.8E SOUTHEAST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 200300UTC AT 20.1N 155.5E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ32 PGUM 190417 *** TCPPQ2 BULLETIN TYPHOON YAGI (16W) ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 2 PM GUAM LST TUE SEP 19 2006 ...TYPHOON YAGI CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT...BUT INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN ISLANDS OF THE CNMI SHOULD CLOSELY FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF THIS TYPHOON. THIS INCLUDES ALAMAGAN...PAGAN AND AGRIHAN. AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON YAGI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 158.6 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 520 MILES WEST OF WAKE ISLAND 845 MILES EAST OF AGRIHAN AND PAGAN 910 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND 1020 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. TYPHOON YAGI IS MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 6 MPH AND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 80 MPH. TYPHOON YAGI WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...20.0 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 158.6 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 6 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 PM GUAM LST. $$ ZIOBRO ** WTNT80 EGRR 190514 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 19.09.2006 HURRICANE GORDON ANALYSED POSITION : 38.0N 43.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 19.09.2006 38.0N 43.6W STRONG 12UTC 19.09.2006 38.8N 36.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2006 39.3N 30.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2006 EXTRA-TROPICAL HURRICANE HELENE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.3N 51.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 19.09.2006 24.3N 51.5W INTENSE 12UTC 19.09.2006 25.0N 52.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2006 25.6N 54.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.09.2006 26.4N 56.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.09.2006 27.9N 57.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.09.2006 29.8N 56.6W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2006 32.5N 55.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.09.2006 35.4N 53.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.09.2006 37.0N 50.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2006 37.8N 46.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.09.2006 39.9N 42.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.09.2006 42.7N 38.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.09.2006 44.7N 32.9W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ANALYSED POSITION : 9.5N 157.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP022006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 19.09.2006 9.5N 157.0W WEAK 12UTC 19.09.2006 10.6N 158.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2006 10.8N 162.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2006 11.2N 163.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2006 12.0N 166.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2006 12.4N 169.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 190514 ** WTNT32 KNHC 190549 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE GORDON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 33A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 200 AM AST TUE SEP 19 2006 ...GORDON MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD AS IT TAKES AIM ON THE AZORES... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF THE WELL-DEFINED EYE OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.2 WEST OR ABOUT 710 MILES... 1140 KM...WEST OF TERCEIRA IN THE AZORES ISLANDS. GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 28 MPH...44 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...GORDON WILL PASS NEAR OR MOVE ACROSS THE AZORES LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GORDON IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ALTHOUGH SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...GORDON IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE AS IT PASSES NEAR OR ACROSS THE AZORES ISLANDS. IN ADDITION...STRONGER WINDS WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE AZORES. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB...28.70 INCHES. LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ALONG WITH STORM SURGES OF 1 TO 3 FT ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE AZORES. GORDON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE AZORES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...38.1 N...40.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST NEAR 28 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART