** WTPQ20 RJTD 181800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 181800UTC 41.2N 135.1E FAIR MOVE NNE 11KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 191800UTC 44.0N 140.6E 100NM 70% MOVE ENE 13KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 201800UTC 50.3N 148.2E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP21 RJTD 181800 *** WARNING 181800. WARNING VALID 191800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 980 HPA AT 41.2N 135.1E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 11 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 42.9N 137.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 44.0N 140.6E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 50.3N 148.2E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 181800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS YAGI 0614 (0614) INITIAL TIME 181800 UTC 00HR 20.3N 159.5E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 260KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR SE 5KM/H P+24HR 19.6N 159.5E 970HPA 35M/S P+48HR 19.2N 154.9E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 20.5N 150.0E 950HPA 45M/S= ** WTKO20 RKSL 181800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 27 NAME STS 0613 SHANSHAN ANALYSIS POSITION 181800UTC 41.2N 135.1E MOVEMENT NNE 11KT PRES/VMAX 980HPA 54KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 190600UTC 42.7N 138.0E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 51KT 24HR POSITION 191800UTC 43.9N 140.5E WITHIN 0NM PRES 990HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTJP22 RJTD 181800 *** WARNING 181800. WARNING VALID 191800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0614 YAGI (0614) 980 HPA AT 20.3N 159.6E SOUTHEAST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING SOUTHSOUTHEAST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 20.3N 157.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 20.3N 152.3E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 211800UTC AT 22.9N 145.7E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 181800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0614 YAGI (0614) ANALYSIS PSTN 181800UTC 20.3N 159.6E FAIR MOVE SSE SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 191800UTC 20.3N 157.6E 80NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 48HF 201800UTC 20.3N 152.3E 150NM 70% MOVE W 12KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 211800UTC 22.9N 145.7E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 16KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 181800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 4 NAME STS 0614 YAGI ANALYSIS POSITION 181800UTC 20.3N 159.6E MOVEMENT SSE 5KT PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 191800UTC 20.1N 157.9E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 64KT 48HR POSITION 201800UTC 20.1N 152.1E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 72KT 72HR POSITION 211800UTC 22.4N 146.7E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 955HPA 76KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTNT33 KNHC 182033 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 500 PM AST MON SEP 18 2006 ...HELENE REMAINS LARGE AND POWERFUL...FORECAST TO REMAIN OUT TO SEA... AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.1 WEST OR ABOUT 870 MILES... 1395 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1015 MILES...1635 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HELENE REMAINS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...23.9 N...51.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT23 KNHC 182035 *** TCMAT3 HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 2100 UTC MON SEP 18 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 51.1W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT.......100NE 65SE 30SW 80NW. 34 KT.......175NE 150SE 100SW 125NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 330SE 240SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 51.1W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 50.7W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 24.6N 52.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT...100NE 65SE 30SW 80NW. 34 KT...175NE 150SE 100SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 24.7N 54.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT...100NE 65SE 30SW 80NW. 34 KT...175NE 150SE 100SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 24.8N 56.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...200NE 175SE 125SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 26.0N 57.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...200NE 175SE 125SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 29.5N 58.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...200NE 175SE 125SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 33.0N 57.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 40.0N 50.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.9N 51.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT43 KNHC 182035 *** TCDAT3 HURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 500 PM EDT MON SEP 18 2006 A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT MADE A PASS THROUGH THE CENTER OF HELENE EARLIER TODAY AND FOUND THAT THE HURRICANE WAS NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED BY SATELLITE. THEY MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 966 MB AND SEVERAL MILLIBARS LOWER TWO HOURS LATER. MAXIMUM WINDS REPORTED FROM THE SFMR INSTRUMENT ONBOARD THE PLANE WERE ONLY 79 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION STILL SUPPORTS WINDS STRONGER THAN 100 KNOTS. AT THIS TIME...I AM ASSUMING THAT THE NOAA PLANE DID NOT SAMPLE THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 100 KNOTS. IF THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION DETERIORATES LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...WINDS COULD BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD. HELENE COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LOW AND THE OCEAN IS WARM. MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HELENE IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF HELENE IS FORECAST TO EXPAND WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS PATTERN WOULD TEMPORARILY STEER HELENE TOWARD THE WEST. HOWEVER...BEYOND TWO DAYS A LARGE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...FORCING HELENE TO TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. I AM MUCH MORE CONFIDENT IN THIS TRACK FORECAST SINCE ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THEIR SOLUTION BECAME CLOSER TO THE GFDL...WHICH HAS BEEN STUBBORNLY TURNING HELENE NORTHWARD ALL ALONG. DUE TO THE EASTWARD CHANGE IN THE GLOBAL MODELS IN THE LATEST RUN...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT EASTWARD AND IS NOW SHOWING RECURVATURE EAST OF 60W LONGITUDE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/2100Z 23.9N 51.1W 100 KT 12HR VT 19/0600Z 24.6N 52.2W 100 KT 24HR VT 19/1800Z 24.7N 54.0W 105 KT 36HR VT 20/0600Z 24.8N 56.5W 105 KT 48HR VT 20/1800Z 26.0N 57.0W 105 KT 72HR VT 21/1800Z 29.5N 58.5W 100 KT 96HR VT 22/1800Z 33.0N 57.5W 90 KT 120HR VT 23/1800Z 40.0N 50.0W 80 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTCA43 TJSJ 182040 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN HELENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 26 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL082006 500 PM AST LUNES 18 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...HELENE PERMANECE GRANDE Y POTENTE...SE PRONOSTICA QUE PERMANEZCA EN EL OCEANO... A LAS 500 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN HELENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 23.9NORTE...LONGITUD 51.1 OESTE O COMO A 870 MILLAS...1395 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE Y CERCA DE 1015 MILLAS...1635 KM...AL ESTE SURESTE DE BERMUDA. HELENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH... 15 KM/HR Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE HASTA EL MARTES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 115 MPH...185 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. HELENE PERMANECE COMO UN HURACAN CATEORIA TRES EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. NO SE ESPERAN CAMBIOS SIGNIFICATIVOS DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA UNAS 70 MILLAS...110 KILOMETROS...DESDE EL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 200 MILLAS...325 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA FUE DE 960 MILIBARAS...28.35 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 PM AST...23.9 NORTE...51.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...115 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...960 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR AVILA ** WTNT42 KNHC 182042 *** TCDAT2 HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 500 PM EDT MON SEP 18 2006 GORDON IS STUBBORNLY MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE AND A NEARLY COMPLETE COLD CLOUD RING. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS LIKEWISE KEPT AT 80 KT. GORDON IS QUICKLY PROGRESSING OVER COOLER WATERS AND WILL BE OVER 24 C SSTS TOMORROW...THOUGH THE DESTABILIZING EFFECTS OF COOLING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES MAY SOMEWHAT COUNTERACT THE REDUCTION IN SSTS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...ANALYZED BY CIMSS AT ABOUT 20 KT...SHOULD BECOME STRONGER UNDER AN INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT. AS SUGGESTED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...GORDON SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING SHORTLY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST...WHILE THE SYSTEM IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. GORDON IS MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...75 DEGREES AT 19 KT...WHICH IS FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. GORDON SHOULD TRACK TO THE EAST FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS UNDER THE ZONAL FLOW PRODUCED BY THE COMBINATION OF A DEEP TROUGH TO ITS NORTH AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...GORDON IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT QUICKLY ACCELERATES AND IS ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. HOWEVER...A COUPLE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE NOGAPS AND UKMET...SUGGEST INSTEAD THAT GORDON WILL RETAIN ITS OWN IDENTITY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM LONGER THAN INDICATED HERE. THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...MINUS THE NOGAPS...WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE TOO LARGE A VORTEX CARRIED FORWARD IN TIME. ANALYSES FROM THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS SUGGEST THAT ALL NUMERICAL MODELS TRANSITION GORDON TO A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. DUE TO THE RATHER RESILIENT NATURE OF GORDON...HOWEVER...THIS TRANSITION MAY BE DELAYED SLIGHTLY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE SYSTEM WOULD PASS VERY NEAR OR OVER THE AZORES IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE AZORES. HOWEVER...REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE...STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE EXPERIENCED IN THE AZORES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/2100Z 37.8N 44.8W 80 KT 12HR VT 19/0600Z 38.3N 40.8W 70 KT 24HR VT 19/1800Z 38.5N 34.2W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 20/0600Z 39.2N 26.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 20/1800Z 41.3N 17.9W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA ** WTNT22 KNHC 182043 *** TCMAT2 HURRICANE GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 2100 UTC MON SEP 18 2006 AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE WEATHER SERVICE OF THE AZORES HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE AZORES ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.8N 44.8W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB EYE DIAMETER 40 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 35SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 80SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..225NE 250SE 225SW 175NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.8N 44.8W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.5N 46.4W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 38.3N 40.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 100SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 38.5N 34.2W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 120SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 39.2N 26.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 75SE 75SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 150SE 150SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 41.3N 17.9W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 80SE 80SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 200SE 200SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.8N 44.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA ** WTNT32 KNHC 182053 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 500 PM AST MON SEP 18 2006 ...GORDON THREATENS THE AZORES... AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE WEATHER SERVICE OF THE AZORES HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE AZORES ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.8 WEST OR ABOUT 960 MILES... 1545 KM...WEST OF TERCEIRA IN THE AZORES. GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/HR... AND IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND ACCELERATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS TRACK WILL BRING GORDON CLOSE TO THE AZORES ON TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GORDON IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...37.8 N...44.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA ** WTCA42 TJSJ 182103 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN GORDON ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 32 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL072006 500 PM AST LUNES 18 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...GORDON AMENAZA LAS ISLAS AZORES... A LAS 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...EL SERVICIO DE METEOROLOGIA DE AZORES HA EMITIDO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS AZORES. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE EN LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA SOBRE SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS O AVISOS...DEBEN MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 500 PM AST...2100Z..EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN GORDON ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 37.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 44.8 OESTE O COMO A 960 MILLAS...1545 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE DE TERCEIRA EN AZORES. GORDON SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL ESTE NORESTE A CERCA DE 22 MPH...35 KM/HR Y SE ESPERA QUE SE MUEVA AL ESTE Y QUE ACELERE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTA TRAYECTORIA TRAERA A GORDON CERCA DE LAS ISLAS AZORES EL MARTES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 90 MPH...150 KM/HR CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. GORDON ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR SIMPSON. ALGUN DEBILITAMIENTO SE PRONOSTICA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 40 MILLAS...65 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KM. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 977 MILIBARAS...28.85 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 AM AST...37.8 NORTE...44.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL ESTE NORESTE A CERCA DE 22 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...90 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...977 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 800 PM AST SEGUIDA POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR AVILA/LANDSEA ** WTJP31 RJTD 182100 *** WARNING 182100. WARNING VALID 192100. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 980 HPA AT 41.4N 135.4E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 11 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 50 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190900UTC AT 43.1N 137.8E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 192100UTC AT 45.1N 142.1E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 182100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 182100UTC 41.4N 135.4E FAIR MOVE NNE 11KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 70NM NORTH 50NM SOUTH 30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 192100UTC 45.1N 142.1E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 18KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 201800UTC 50.3N 148.2E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP32 RJTD 182100 *** WARNING 182100. WARNING VALID 192100. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0614 YAGI (0614) 975 HPA AT 20.2N 159.2E SOUTHEAST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING SOUTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 192100UTC AT 20.2N 156.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 182100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0614 YAGI (0614) ANALYSIS PSTN 182100UTC 20.2N 159.2E FAIR MOVE SW SLOWLY PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 192100UTC 20.2N 156.4E 80NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 201800UTC 20.3N 152.3E 150NM 70% MOVE W 12KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 211800UTC 22.9N 145.7E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 16KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPQ32 PGUM 182224 *** TCPPQ2 BULLETIN TYPHOON YAGI (16W) ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 8 AM GUAM LST TUE SEP 19 2006 ...YAGI UPGRADED TO TYPHOON... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT...BUT INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN ISLANDS OF THE CNMI SHOULD CLOSELY FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF THIS TYPHOON. THIS INCLUDES ALAMAGAN...PAGAN AND AGRIHAN. AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON YAGI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 159.4 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 475 MILES WEST OF WAKE ISLAND 900 MILES EAST OF AGRIHAN AND PAGAN 970 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND 1075 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. TYPHOON YAGI IS NEARLY STATIONARY AND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 75 MPH. TYPHOON YAGI WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...20.3 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 159.4 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...NEARLY STATIONARY WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 PM GUAM LST. $$ ZIOBRO/STANKO ** WTNT32 KNHC 182341 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE GORDON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 800 PM AST MON SEP 18 2006 ...GORDON MOVING FASTER TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST... ...HURRICANE WARNING COULD BE ISSUED TONIGHT FOR THE AZORES... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AZORES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. THIS WATCH COULD BE UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WARNING LATER TONIGHT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR LATITUDE 37.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.3 WEST OR ABOUT 880 MILES...1415 KM...WEST OF TERCEIRA IN THE AZORES. GORDON IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 28 MPH...44 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... GORDON WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE AZORES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GORDON IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST ON TUESDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES. GORDON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES. REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...37.9 N...44.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST NEAR 28 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH ** WTCA42 TJSJ 182348 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN GORDON ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 32A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL072006 800 PM AST LUNES 18 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...GORDON MOVIENDOSE MAS RAPIDO HACIA EL ESTE NORESTE... ...PUDIERA EMITIRSE UN AVISO DE HURACAN ESTA NOCHE PARA LAS ISLAS AZORES... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS AZORES. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE EN LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. ESTA VIGILANCIA PUEDE CONVERTIRSE A AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL O DE HURACAN MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA SOBRE SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS O AVISOS...DEBEN MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 800 PM AST...0000Z..EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN GORDON ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 37.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 43.3 OESTE O COMO A 880 MILLAS...1415 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE DE TERCEIRA EN AZORES. GORDON SE ESTA MOVIENDO RAPIDAMENTE HACIA EL ESTE A CERCA DE 28 MPH...44 KM/HR Y SE ESPERA ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CON UN AUMENTO EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA GORDON SE ACERCARA A LAS ISLAS AZORES EL MARTES EN LA TARDE O AL ANOCHECER. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 90 MPH...150 KM/HR CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. GORDON ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR SIMPSON. ALGUN DEBILITAMIENTO SE PRONOSTICA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 40 MILLAS...65 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KM. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 975 MILIBARAS...28.79 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE GORDON PRODUZCA CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS SOBRE PARTES DE LAS AZORES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 800 AM AST...37.9 NORTE...44.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL ESTE A CERCA DE 28 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...90 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...975 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE/PASCH