** WTSR20 WSSS 180600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 181200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS YAGI 0614 (0614) INITIAL TIME 181200 UTC 00HR 20.4N 159.3E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 260KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR ESE 10KM/H P+24HR 19.8N 158.7E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 19.7N 154.9E 970HPA 35M/S P+72HR 20.5N 150.0E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 181200 *** WARNING 181200. WARNING VALID 191200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 980 HPA AT 40.1N 134.6E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 16 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 41.6N 135.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 42.5N 137.6E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 44.7N 145.1E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 181200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 181200UTC 40.1N 134.6E FAIR MOVE NNE 16KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 191200UTC 42.5N 137.6E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 09KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 201200UTC 44.7N 145.1E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTKO20 RKSL 181200 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 26 NAME STS 0613 SHANSHAN ANALYSIS POSITION 181200UTC 40.1N 134.6E MOVEMENT NNE 16KT PRES/VMAX 980HPA 54KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 190000UTC 42.0N 135.6E WITHIN 65NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 54KT 24HR POSITION 191200UTC 42.6N 137.7E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 51KT 36HR POSITION 200000UTC 43.6N 139.9E WITHIN 0NM PRES 990HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTJP22 RJTD 181200 *** WARNING 181200. WARNING VALID 191200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0614 YAGI (0614) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 985 HPA AT 20.7N 159.4E SOUTHEAST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING EAST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 20.3N 159.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 20.2N 154.8E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 211200UTC AT 21.7N 148.7E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 181200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0614 YAGI (0614) UPGRADED FROM TS ANALYSIS PSTN 181200UTC 20.7N 159.4E FAIR MOVE E SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 140NM FORECAST 24HF 191200UTC 20.3N 159.0E 80NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 48HF 201200UTC 20.2N 154.8E 150NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT 72HF 211200UTC 21.7N 148.7E 220NM 70% MOVE W 14KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTPN32 PGTW 181500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 16W (YAGI) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 181200Z --- NEAR 20.4N 159.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 159.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 20.0N 159.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 19.7N 158.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 19.4N 156.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 19.4N 154.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 20.4N 149.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 22.8N 144.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 26.6N 140.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT --- REMARKS: 181500Z POSITION NEAR 20.3N 159.4E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 950 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEAST- WARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.// ** WTNT33 KNHC 181434 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 AM AST MON SEP 18 2006 ...GORDON FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD...EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER OPEN WATERS... AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.2 WEST OR ABOUT 900 MILES... 1450 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1090 MILES...1755 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...23.2 N...50.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT43 KNHC 181435 *** TCDAT3 HURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 AM EDT MON SEP 18 2006 HELENE AND GORDON WERE BASICALLY AT THE SAME LONGITUDE THIS MORNING AND THERE WAS A WEAKENING ON THE RIDGE NORTH OF HELENE. THIS RESULTED IN HELENE MOVING IN A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THE HURRICANE IS READY TO BEGIN THE WESTWARD TURN ANTICIPATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. IN FACT...HELENE HAS ALREADY TURNED A LITTLE BIT AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WHILE A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF HELENE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY. THIS PATTERN WOULD TEMPORARILY STEER HELENE ON A WESTWARD TRACK FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH APPROACHING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS TROUGH WILL FORCE HELENE SLOWLY NORTHWARD. ALTHOUGH...THE CONFIDENCE IS QUITE HIGH THAT HELENE WILL EVENTUALLY TURN NORTHWARD...IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THE LONGITUDE THIS WILL OCCUR. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FROM THE LAST RUN OF THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT BY DAYS 4 AND 5...THE STEERING CURRENTS WILL WEAKEN AND HELENE WILL BE MOVING VERY SLOWLY. THERE HAS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN...JUST A SMALL INCREASE IN THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 110 KNOTS. A NOAA P3 PLANE AND NOAA G4 JET...CURRENTLY ON A RESEARCH MISSION IN THE AREA WILL BE PROVIDING VALUABLE DATA THIS AFTERNOON AND WE COULD HAVE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE STRUCTURE OF THE HURRICANE AND THE STEERING. HELENE COULD STRENGTHEN JUST LITTLE BIT MORE SINCE THE SHEAR IS LOW AND THE OCEAN IS WARM. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE OR GRADUAL WEAKENING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/1500Z 23.2N 50.2W 110 KT 12HR VT 19/0000Z 23.9N 51.0W 110 KT 24HR VT 19/1200Z 24.3N 52.8W 115 KT 36HR VT 20/0000Z 24.3N 54.5W 115 KT 48HR VT 20/1200Z 24.5N 56.0W 110 KT 72HR VT 21/1200Z 27.0N 58.0W 105 KT 96HR VT 22/1200Z 29.5N 59.5W 100 KT 120HR VT 23/1200Z 31.5N 60.5W 95 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT23 KNHC 181435 *** TCMAT3 HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1500 UTC MON SEP 18 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 50.2W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 40SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 65SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT.......175NE 150SE 100SW 125NW. 12 FT SEAS..275NE 200SE 200SW 250NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 50.2W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 49.9W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.9N 51.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 90NE 65SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT...175NE 150SE 100SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 24.3N 52.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 90NE 65SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT...175NE 150SE 100SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 24.3N 54.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...200NE 175SE 125SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 24.5N 56.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...200NE 175SE 125SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 27.0N 58.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...200NE 175SE 125SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 29.5N 59.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 31.5N 60.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 50.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPZ24 KNHC 181438 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRIAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142006 1500 UTC MON SEP 18 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 113.8W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 50SE 175SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 113.8W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 113.7W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 21.2N 114.4W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 22.9N 115.4W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 25.0N 116.1W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 27.4N 115.9W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 113.8W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI ** WTPZ44 KNHC 181439 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142006 800 AM PDT MON SEP 18 2006 MIRIAM HAS BEEN DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 15 HOURS AND IS NOW A LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY AT ISLA CLARION REPORTED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 18 KT AT 1000 UTC... HOWEVER SINCE THEN THE WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED EVEN FURTHER. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS OF 1.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 25 KT. MIRIAM CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARDS COOLER WATERS AND A DRY STABLE ENVIRONMENT GIVING THE SYSTEM VERY LITTLE CHANCE TO REGAIN CONVECTION. THEREFORE THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...IF IT IS NOT ONE ALREADY. MIRIAM HAS A LARGE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT COULD PERSIST FOR A FEW DAYS PRIOR TO DISSIPATION. MIRIAM HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH 000/05...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT WEST OF NORTH MOTION HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...INDICATING THAT THE REMNANTS OF MIRIAM WILL BE STEERED NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN ACCELERATE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. ASSUMING REGENERATION DOES NOT OCCUR...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON MIRIAM.ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/1500Z 20.1N 113.8W 25 KT 12HR VT 19/0000Z 21.2N 114.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 19/1200Z 22.9N 115.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 20/0000Z 25.0N 116.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 20/1200Z 27.4N 115.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI ** WTPZ24 KNHC 181440 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRIAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142006 1500 UTC MON SEP 18 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 113.8W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 355 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 50SE 175SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 113.8W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 113.7W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 21.2N 114.4W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 22.9N 115.4W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 25.0N 116.1W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 27.4N 115.9W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 113.8W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI ** WTNT33 KNHC 181444 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 25...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 AM AST MON SEP 18 2006 CORRECTION TO THE NAME OF THE HURRICANE IN THE HEADLINE ...HELENE FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD...EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER OPEN WATERS... AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.2 WEST OR ABOUT 900 MILES... 1450 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1090 MILES...1755 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...23.2 N...50.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT42 KNHC 181450 *** TCDAT2 HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 AM EDT MON SEP 18 2006 GORDON'S EYE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS MORNING IN VISIBLE... INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A COLD RING OF ABOUT -60C CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING A WARM -6C EYE. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE BETWEEN 75 AND 90 KT FROM TAFB..SAB AND KGWC. MOREOVER...THE OBJECTIVE TECHNIQUES SUGGEST WINDS OF 80 TO 100 KT. THE INTENSITY IS THUS INCREASED UP TO 80 KT. GORDON HAS JUST PASSED THE 26C ISOTHERM AND WILL BE MOVING INTO PROGRESSIVELY COOLER...BUT NOT COLD...WATERS AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. HIGH LATITUDE HURRICANES...HOWEVER...DO TEND TO BE SOMEWHAT RESISTANT TO VERTICAL SHEAR. NONETHELESS...IT IS LIKELY THAT GORDON HAS REACHED ITS SECOND PEAK IN INTENSITY AND SHOULD BEGIN SOME WEAKENING SHORTLY. THE INTENSITY PREDICTIONS ARE CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. GORDON IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST 55 DEGREES AT 17 KT...WHICH IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A TURN TOWARD A DUE EASTWARD TRACK IS ANTICIPATED BY ALL MODELS AS GORDON BECOMES STEERED BY THE ZONAL WESTERLIES NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WITHOUT THE SLOWER UKMET...AND NEAR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ANALYSES FROM THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS SUGGEST THAT ALL NUMERICAL MODELS TRANSITION GORDON TO A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. DUE TO THE RATHER RESILIENT NATURE OF GORDON...THIS TRANSITION IS DELAYED TO THE 36 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...THE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE SPLIT AS TO WHETHER GORDON WILL REMAIN A SEPARATE EXTRATROPICAL STORM OR WHETHER IT WILL BE ABSORBED INTO A DEVELOPING EXTRATROPICAL STORM SYSTEM TO ITS NORTH. GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF GORDON...THE LATTER SCENARIO IS FAVORED WITH ABSORPTION OCCURRING AROUND 60 TO 72 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS VERY NEAR OR OVER THE AZORES IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES THAT GORDON WILL HAVE COMPLETED ITS TRANSITION INTO A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY THAT TIME. HOWEVER...IF FUTURE FORECASTS DELAY THIS TRANSITION...TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD BE REQUIRED. IN ANY EVENT...STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE AZORES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/1500Z 37.3N 47.6W 80 KT 12HR VT 19/0000Z 38.1N 43.9W 70 KT 24HR VT 19/1200Z 38.5N 37.5W 65 KT 36HR VT 20/0000Z 38.8N 30.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 20/1200Z 39.9N 21.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA ** WTNT22 KNHC 181451 *** TCMAT2 HURRICANE GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1500 UTC MON SEP 18 2006 INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GORDON. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 47.6W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 30SE 25SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 80SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 180SE 150SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 47.6W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.9N 48.8W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 38.1N 43.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 30SE 25SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 38.5N 37.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 125SE 125SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 38.8N 30.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 75SE 75SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 150SE 150SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 39.9N 21.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 75SE 75SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 150SE 150SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.3N 47.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA ** WTCA43 TJSJ 181452 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN HELENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 25 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 AM AST LUNES 18 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...HELENE SE PRONOSTICA QUE GIRE AL OESTE...SE ESPERA QUE PERMANEZCA SOBRE LAS AGUAS ABIERTAS DEL OCEANO... A LAS 1100 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN HELENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 23.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 50.2 OESTE O COMO A 900 MILLAS...1450 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE Y CERCA DE 1090 MILLAS...1755 KM...AL ESTE SURESTE DE BERMUDA. HELENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH... 15 KM/HR. UN GIRO GRADUAL AL OESTE SE ESPERA DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA O DOS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO A CERCA DE 125 MPH...205 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. NO SE ESPERAN CAMBIOS SIGNIFICATIVOS DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA UNAS 50 MILLAS...85 KILOMETROS...DESDE EL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 200 MILLAS...325 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA FUE DE 954 MILIBARAS...28.17 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 AM AST...23.2 NORTE...50.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...125 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...954 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR AVILA ** WTNT32 KNHC 181454 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 AM AST MON SEP 18 2006 ...GORDON INTENSIFIES OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GORDON. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.6 WEST OR ABOUT 1125 MILES ...1810 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES. GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND GORDON'S MOTION IS ANTICIPATED TO ACCELERATE AND TURN TOWARD THE EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GORDON IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...37.3 N...47.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA ** WTPN32 PHNC 181600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E (MIRIAM) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 181200Z --- NEAR 19.9N 113.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 20.1N 113.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 21.2N 114.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 22.9N 115.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 25.0N 116.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 27.4N 115.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 181600Z POSITION NEAR 20.5N 114.0W. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MON- ITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 13 FEET. AT 091812 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED 453 NM WSW OF MAZATLAN.// ** WTCA42 TJSJ 181504 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN GORDON ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 31 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 AM AST LUNES 18 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...GORDON SE INTENSIFICA SOBRE LAS AGUAS ABIERTAS DEL OCEANO ATLANTICO... LOS INTERESES EN LAS AZORES DEBEN DE SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE GORDON. UNA VIGILANCIA O AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PUEDE SER REQUERIDA MAS TARDE HOY. A LAS 1100 AM AST...1500Z..EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN GORDON ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 37.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 47.6 OESTE O COMO A 1125 MILLAS...1810 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE DE AZORES. GORDON SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH...32 KM/HR Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL ESTE CON AUMENTO EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 90 MPH...150 KM/HR CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. GORDON ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR SIMPSON. ALGUN DEBILITAMIENTO SE PRONOSTICA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 35 MILLAS...55 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KM. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 980 MILIBARAS...28.94 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 AM AST...37.3 NORTE...47.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...90 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...980 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR AVILA/LANDSEA ** WTPQ32 PGUM 181520 *** TCPPQ2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM YAGI (16W) ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 2 AM GUAM LST TUE SEP 19 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM YAGI DRIFTING SOUTHEAST... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 1 AM GUAM LST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM YAGI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 159.4 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 475 MILES WEST OF WAKE ISLAND 900 MILES EAST OF AGRIHAN AND PAGAN 970 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND 1075 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. TROPICAL STORM YAGI IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 3 MPH. IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 70 MPH. TROPICAL STORM YAGI WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY...LIKELY BECOMING A TYPHOON WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPEATING THE 1 AM POSITION...20.3 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 159.4 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 3 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 AM GUAM LST. $$ HENDRICKS ** WTJP31 RJTD 181500 *** WARNING 181500. WARNING VALID 191500. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 980 HPA AT 40.9N 134.9E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 13 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190300UTC AT 41.9N 135.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 191500UTC AT 42.7N 137.9E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 181500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 181500UTC 40.9N 134.9E FAIR MOVE NNE 13KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 191500UTC 42.7N 137.9E 100NM 70% MOVE ENE 09KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 201200UTC 44.7N 145.1E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP32 RJTD 181500 *** WARNING 181500. WARNING VALID 191500. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0614 YAGI (0614) 985 HPA AT 20.5N 159.5E SOUTHEAST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING SOUTHEAST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 191500UTC AT 20.3N 158.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 181500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0614 YAGI (0614) ANALYSIS PSTN 181500UTC 20.5N 159.5E FAIR MOVE SE SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 140NM FORECAST 24HF 191500UTC 20.3N 158.6E 80NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 45HF 201200UTC 20.2N 154.8E 150NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT 69HF 211200UTC 21.7N 148.7E 220NM 70% MOVE W 14KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTPZ44 KNHC 181630 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER 10...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142006 800 AM PDT MON SEP 18 2006 CORRECTED FOR AWIPS AND WMO HEADERS MIRIAM HAS BEEN DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 15 HOURS AND IS NOW A LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY AT ISLA CLARION REPORTED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 18 KT AT 1000 UTC... HOWEVER SINCE THEN THE WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED EVEN FURTHER. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS OF 1.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 25 KT. MIRIAM CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARDS COOLER WATERS AND A DRY STABLE ENVIRONMENT GIVING THE SYSTEM VERY LITTLE CHANCE TO REGAIN CONVECTION. THEREFORE THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...IF IT IS NOT ONE ALREADY. MIRIAM HAS A LARGE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT COULD PERSIST FOR A FEW DAYS PRIOR TO DISSIPATION. MIRIAM HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH 000/05...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT WEST OF NORTH MOTION HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...INDICATING THAT THE REMNANTS OF MIRIAM WILL BE STEERED NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN ACCELERATE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. ASSUMING REGENERATION DOES NOT OCCUR...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON MIRIAM.ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEP1 AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/1500Z 20.1N 113.8W 25 KT 12HR VT 19/0000Z 21.2N 114.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 19/1200Z 22.9N 115.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 20/0000Z 25.0N 116.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 20/1200Z 27.4N 115.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI ** WTPZ24 KNHC 181631 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRIAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142006 1500 UTC MON SEP 18 2006 CORRECTED FOR AWIPS AND WMO HEADERS TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 113.8W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 355 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 50SE 175SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 113.8W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 113.7W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 21.2N 114.4W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 22.9N 115.4W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 25.0N 116.1W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 27.4N 115.9W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 113.8W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEP1 AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI ** WTNT80 EGRR 181707 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 18.09.2006 HURRICANE GORDON ANALYSED POSITION : 36.7N 49.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.09.2006 36.7N 49.2W MODERATE 00UTC 19.09.2006 38.4N 43.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2006 38.8N 37.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2006 37.9N 30.7W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 20.09.2006 EXTRA-TROPICAL HURRICANE HELENE ANALYSED POSITION : 23.0N 49.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.09.2006 23.0N 49.4W STRONG 00UTC 19.09.2006 24.5N 50.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2006 24.9N 52.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2006 25.7N 53.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.09.2006 26.7N 54.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.09.2006 28.2N 55.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.09.2006 30.1N 54.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2006 33.1N 54.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 22.09.2006 36.1N 53.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2006 38.1N 50.3W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.09.2006 39.6N 46.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.09.2006 42.1N 42.0W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.09.2006 45.4N 37.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRIAM ANALYSED POSITION : 19.7N 113.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.09.2006 19.7N 113.5W WEAK 00UTC 19.09.2006 21.1N 113.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2006 22.2N 114.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2006 24.3N 114.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.09.2006 26.3N 115.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.09.2006 EXTRA-TROPICAL THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 181707