** WTPQ20 BABJ 180600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS YAGI 0614 (0614) INITIAL TIME 180600 UTC 00HR 20.8N 159.1E 988HPA 25M/S 30KTS 260KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR ESE 8KM/H P+24HR 20.5N 159.2E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 19.9N 156.5E 970HPA 35M/S P+72HR 20.2N 151.6E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 180600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 180600UTC 38.4N 133.4E FAIR MOVE NE 17KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 190600UTC 41.6N 135.8E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 07KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 200600UTC 44.3N 143.2E 160NM 70% MOVE ENE 15KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 72HF 210600UTC 51.9N 149.5E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP21 RJTD 180600 *** WARNING 180600. WARNING VALID 190600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 980 HPA AT 38.4N 133.4E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 17 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 40.6N 134.4E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 41.6N 135.8E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 44.3N 143.2E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 51.9N 149.5E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 180600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 25 NAME STS 0613 SHANSHAN ANALYSIS POSITION 180600UTC 38.4N 133.4E MOVEMENT NE 17KT PRES/VMAX 980HPA 54KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 181800UTC 40.9N 134.4E WITHIN 65NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 54KT 24HR POSITION 190600UTC 42.7N 137.0E WITHIN 110NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 51KT 36HR POSITION 191800UTC 44.1N 140.2E WITHIN 0NM PRES 990HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTJP22 RJTD 180600 *** WARNING 180600. WARNING VALID 190600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0614 YAGI (0614) 990 HPA AT 20.7N 158.9E SOUTHEAST OF MINAMITORISIMA ALMOST STATIONARY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 20.2N 158.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 20.0N 154.8E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 21.4N 148.7E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 180600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0614 YAGI (0614) ANALYSIS PSTN 180600UTC 20.7N 158.9E FAIR MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 130NM FORECAST 24HF 190600UTC 20.2N 158.3E 80NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 200600UTC 20.0N 154.8E 150NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 72HF 210600UTC 21.4N 148.7E 220NM 70% MOVE W 14KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 180600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.18 FOR STS 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 180600 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL DECELERATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE. STS WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN MOVE TO EAST-NORTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS. STS WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 60 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 180600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 3 NAME TS 0614 YAGI ANALYSIS POSITION 180600UTC 20.7N 158.9E MOVEMENT S 3KT PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 190600UTC 20.0N 158.8E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 49KT 48HR POSITION 200600UTC 19.8N 156.0E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 56KT 72HR POSITION 210600UTC 20.1N 151.9E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 64KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ31 RJTD 180600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 0614 YAGI (0614) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 180600 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL BE STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE. TS WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTIN20 DEMS 180715 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 18-09-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH BAY OF BENGAL NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RODGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 27 DEG NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????/ ** WTPN32 PGTW 180900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 16W (YAGI) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 180600Z --- NEAR 20.5N 159.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 159.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 20.2N 159.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 19.8N 158.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 19.4N 157.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 19.3N 155.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 20.0N 150.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 22.0N 146.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 25.2N 142.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT --- REMARKS: 180900Z POSITION NEAR 20.4N 159.2E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 940 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.// ** WTNT32 KNHC 180843 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 500 AM AST MON SEP 18 2006 ...GORDON BEGINS TO MOVE FASTER... INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GORDON. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.6 WEST OR ABOUT 1245 MILES ...2000 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES. GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GORDON IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...36.5 N...49.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN ** WTNT22 KNHC 180844 *** TCMAT2 HURRICANE GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 0900 UTC MON SEP 18 2006 INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GORDON. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 49.6W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 80SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 180SE 150SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 49.6W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 50.6W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 37.8N 46.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 38.7N 40.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 38.9N 33.8W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 150SE 150SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 39.0N 26.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 150SE 150SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.5N 49.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN ** WTPZ24 KNHC 180846 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRIAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142006 0900 UTC MON SEP 18 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 113.7W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 50SE 175SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 113.7W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 113.6W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 20.9N 114.1W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 22.2N 114.9W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 24.4N 116.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 26.7N 116.4W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 30.5N 114.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 113.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/FRANKLIN ** WTNT23 KNHC 180846 *** TCMAT3 HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 0900 UTC MON SEP 18 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 49.6W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 40SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 65SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT.......175NE 150SE 100SW 125NW. 12 FT SEAS..275NE 200SE 200SW 250NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 49.6W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 49.4W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.1N 50.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 90NE 65SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT...175NE 150SE 100SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 23.7N 51.7W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 90NE 65SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT...175NE 150SE 100SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 24.0N 53.3W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...200NE 175SE 125SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 24.3N 55.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...200NE 175SE 125SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 26.0N 57.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...200NE 175SE 125SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 28.2N 58.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 30.0N 60.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 49.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTNT43 KNHC 180846 *** TCDAT3 HURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 500 AM EDT MON SEP 18 2006 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/6. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE...AND THIS UPPER LOW MAY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORE NORTHWARD CURRENT MOTION. AS THIS LOW...ALONG WITH HURRICANE GORDON...LIFT OUT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...RIDGING SHOULD DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF HELENE. THIS RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO FORCE HELENE ON MORE OF A WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...ALTHOUGH IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GUIDANCE HAS HAD A DECIDED SHORT-TERM WESTWARD BIAS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LONGER RANGE PROGNOSIS IS LESS CLEAR. A DEEP-LAYER LOW CURRENTLY EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE BAHAMAS...AND A SECOND LARGE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON WEAKENING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW AND BRINGING THE SECOND TROUGH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND IN 4 TO 5 DAYS... ALLOWING SOME RIDGING TO DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY DAY 5. HOWEVER...THE SPECIFIC INTERACTIONS BETWEEN HELENE AND THESE VARIOUS FEATURES VARY WIDELY AMONG THE MODELS. ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE...THE GFDL AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE HELENE LIFTED NORTH BY THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW JUST ENOUGH TO THEN BE PICKED UP BY THE PLAINS TROUGH. ON THE LEFT ARE THE UKMET AND NOGAPS...WHICH KEEP HELENE FARTHER SOUTH INITIALLY AND END UP WITH IT CAPTURED OR SLOWED BY THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE ON DAY 5. THE GFS...WHICH HAD BEEN LEANING LEFT...HAS NOW SHIFTED TO THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS FORECASTS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE TO BE WEAKER AND DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS RUN...AND THIS IS ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A RATHER LARGE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK OF HELENE IN THE MODEL. CONVERSELY THE ECMWF...WHICH HAD BEEN SHOWING A RAPID RECURVATURE...HAS SHIFTED LEFT AND IS NOW PRETTY CLOSE TO THE GFS. THE BOTTOM LINE OF ALL THIS IS THAT WHAT HAPPENS IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...THAT IS...HOW MUCH LATITUDE HELENE CAN GAIN...COULD MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A QUICK RECURVATURE AND AN AGONIZINGLY SLOW PATH THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT IS STILL TO THE LEFT OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. IT IS PERHAPS OBVIOUS BY NOW THAT I CONSIDER THE TRACK FORECAST TO HAVE MORE THAN THE NORMAL AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. EYEWALL CONVECTION IS A LITTLE COLDER AND MORE SYMMETRIC THAN IT WAS 6 HOURS AGO. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 102 KT...WHILE THE CIMSS/ADT ESTIMATES ARE A LITTLE HIGHER AND HAVE BEEN INCREASING. THE ADVISORY ESTIMATE IS INCREASED TO 105 KT. THE OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS VERY STRONG...ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME FLATTENING ON THE WESTERN SIDE LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SMALL UPPER LOW. THIS LOW COMPLICATES THE SHORT-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST. ALTHOUGH AT THE MOMENT IT MAY BE IMPEDING THE OUTFLOW... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT VORTICITY FROM THIS LOW IS BEING ENTRAINED INTO HELENE...AND THIS KIND OF TROUGH INTERACTION CAN SOMETIMES PROVIDE A KICK START FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT HELENE WILL BE AT OR NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0900Z 22.3N 49.6W 105 KT 12HR VT 18/1800Z 23.1N 50.4W 110 KT 24HR VT 19/0600Z 23.7N 51.7W 115 KT 36HR VT 19/1800Z 24.0N 53.3W 115 KT 48HR VT 20/0600Z 24.3N 55.0W 110 KT 72HR VT 21/0600Z 26.0N 57.5W 105 KT 96HR VT 22/0600Z 28.2N 58.9W 100 KT 120HR VT 23/0600Z 30.0N 60.0W 95 KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTNT42 KNHC 180846 *** TCDAT2 HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 500 AM EDT MON SEP 18 2006 MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED EYE...SURROUNDED BY A RING OF COLD TOPS. DATA-T NUMBERS FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB HAVE ACTUALLY INCREASED...AND SUPPORT AN INTENSITY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 70 KT. HOWEVER...WE WOULD LIKE TO SEE THIS TREND CONTINUE FOR A LITTLE LONGER BEFORE ADJUSTING THE INTENSITY UPWARD. GORDON IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF FAIRLY LOW SHEAR AND SSTS AROUND 26C...WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH UNTIL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. GORDON CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/17. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON ACCELERATION AS GORDON GETS CAUGHT UP IN INCREASING ZONAL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND TO THE GFS AND NOGAPS SOLUTIONS. GORDON IS FORECAST TO BEGIN INTERACTING WITH A FRONTAL ZONE DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE QUESTION REMAINS AS TO EXACTLY WHEN GORDON WILL TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. FSU PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS FROM THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS SUGGEST THAT GORDON SHOULD COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOW SUIT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO INDICATES THAT GORDON WILL BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS VERY NEAR OR OVER THE AZORES IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES THAT GORDON WILL HAVE COMPLETED ITS TRANSITION INTO A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY THAT TIME. HOWEVER...IF FUTURE FORECASTS DELAY THIS TRANSITION...TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD BE REQUIRED. IN ANY EVENT...STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE AZORES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0900Z 36.5N 49.6W 70 KT 12HR VT 18/1800Z 37.8N 46.5W 65 KT 24HR VT 19/0600Z 38.7N 40.7W 65 KT 36HR VT 19/1800Z 38.9N 33.8W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 20/0600Z 39.0N 26.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 21/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN ** WTPZ44 KNHC 180846 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142006 200 AM PDT MON SEP 18 2006 MIRIAM HAS BEEN VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION SINCE ABOUT 0100 UTC. A 0154 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED ONLY A SINGLE 35 KT VECTOR SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE WINDS HAVE SINCE DECREASED DUE TO THE LACK OF CONVECTION. THEREFORE...MIRIAM IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT...THE PROSPECTS FOR THE REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. MIRIAM HAS A LARGE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT COULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS PRIOR TO DISSIPATION. SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF MIRIAM HAS BEEN MOVING JUST TO THE EAST OF DUE NORTH... AROUND 010/05...TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND THE HEADING AND SPEED FOLLOW THE TREND OF THE SHALLOW BAM MODEL. THIS TRACK IS TO THE RIGHT OF MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH INITIALIZED MIRIAM AS A DEEPER SYSTEM. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF MIRIAM WILL BE STEERED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS IT MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE CENTERED OVER MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0900Z 19.9N 113.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 18/1800Z 20.9N 114.1W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 19/0600Z 22.2N 114.9W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 19/1800Z 24.4N 116.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 20/0600Z 26.7N 116.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 21/0600Z 30.5N 114.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/FRANKLIN ** WTNT33 KNHC 180849 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 500 AM AST MON SEP 18 2006 ...HELENE A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT JOGS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.6 WEST OR ABOUT 920 MILES... 1480 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1160 MILES...1865 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HELENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...22.3 N...49.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPQ32 PGUM 180852 *** TCPPQ2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM YAGI (16W) ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 8 PM GUAM LST MON SEP 18 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM YAGI DRIFTING SOUTHEAST... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM YAGI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 159.2 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 485 MILES WEST OF WAKE ISLAND 885 MILES EAST OF AGRIHAN 890 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF PAGAN 955 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND 1065 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. TROPICAL STORM YAGI IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH. IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM YAGI IS STILL EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...20.4 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 159.2 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 AM GUAM LST TUESDAY MORNING. $$ MCELROY ** WTCA43 TJSJ 180857 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN HELENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 24 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL082006 500 AM AST DOMINGO 17 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...HELENE UN POCO MAS FUERTE MIENTRAS CONTINUA HACIA EL NOR NOROESTE... A LAS 500 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN HELENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 49.6 OESTE O COMO A 920 MILLAS...1480 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE Y CERCA DE 1160 MILLAS...1865 KM...AL ESTE SURESTE DE BERMUDA. HELENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOR NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH... 11 KM/HR Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE EN ESTE MOVIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 120 MPH...195 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. HELENE ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA TRES EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL ES POSIBLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA UNAS 50 MILLAS...85 KILOMETROS...DESDE EL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 200 MILLAS...325 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA MEDIDA RECIENTEMENTE POR EL AVION DE NOAA FUE DE 958 MILIBARAS...28.29 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 AM AST...22.3 NORTE...49.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOR NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...120 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...958 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR FRANLIN ** WTPN32 PHNC 181000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E (MIRIAM) WARNING NR 009 DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 14E 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 180600Z --- NEAR 19.6N 113.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 19.9N 113.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 20.9N 114.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 22.2N 114.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 24.4N 116.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 26.7N 116.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 30.5N 114.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 181000Z POSITION NEAR 20.2N 113.8W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 12 FEET. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED 320 NM SW OF LA PAZ. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181600Z, 182200Z, 190400Z AND 191000Z.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 180900 *** WARNING 180900. WARNING VALID 190900. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 980 HPA AT 39.6N 134.3E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 23 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 182100UTC AT 41.1N 135.2E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190900UTC AT 42.1N 136.6E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 180900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 180900UTC 39.6N 134.3E FAIR MOVE NNE 23KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 190900UTC 42.1N 136.6E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 07KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 200600UTC 44.3N 143.2E 160NM 70% MOVE ENE 15KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 69HF 210600UTC 51.9N 149.5E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ21 RJTD 180900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0614 YAGI (0614) ANALYSIS PSTN 180900UTC 20.8N 159.2E FAIR MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 130NM FORECAST 24HF 190900UTC 20.3N 159.2E 80NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 200600UTC 20.0N 154.8E 150NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 69HF 210600UTC 21.4N 148.7E 220NM 70% MOVE W 14KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTJP32 RJTD 180900 *** WARNING 180900. WARNING VALID 190900. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0614 YAGI (0614) 990 HPA AT 20.8N 159.2E SOUTHEAST OF MINAMITORISIMA ALMOST STATIONARY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190900UTC AT 20.3N 159.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=