** WTSR20 WSSS 171800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 180000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS YAGI 0614 (0614) INITIAL TIME 180000 UTC 00HR 20.8N 158.8E 995HPA 20M/S 30KTS 220KM P12HR ESE 10KM/H P+24HR 20.3N 158.9E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 19.5N 157.2E 970HPA 35M/S P+72HR 19.8N 153.3E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 180000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) DOWNGRADED FROM TY ANALYSIS PSTN 180000UTC 37.0N 132.0E GOOD MOVE NE 09KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 190000UTC 41.3N 133.7E 100NM 70% MOVE N 08KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 200000UTC 44.1N 141.3E 160NM 70% MOVE ENE 15KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 72HF 210000UTC 51.1N 149.4E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP21 RJTD 180000 *** WARNING 180000. WARNING VALID 190000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 975 HPA AT 37.0N 132.0E SOUTHEAST OF ULLUNG ISLAND MOVING NORTHEAST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 39.7N 133.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 41.3N 133.7E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 44.1N 141.3E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 51.1N 149.4E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 180000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0614 YAGI (0614) ANALYSIS PSTN 180000UTC 20.8N 158.8E FAIR MOVE E SLOWLY PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 130NM FORECAST 24HF 190000UTC 20.2N 159.2E 80NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 200000UTC 20.0N 157.5E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 72HF 210000UTC 20.0N 152.4E 220NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTJP22 RJTD 180000 *** WARNING 180000. WARNING VALID 190000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0614 YAGI (0614) 990 HPA AT 20.8N 158.8E SOUTHEAST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING EAST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 20.2N 159.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 20.0N 157.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 20.0N 152.4E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 180000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 24 NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN ANALYSIS POSITION 180000UTC 37.0N 132.0E MOVEMENT NE 14KT PRES/VMAX 975HPA 58KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 181200UTC 39.0N 132.9E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 54KT 24HR POSITION 190000UTC 41.3N 134.3E WITHIN 95NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 51KT 48HR POSITION 200000UTC 44.1N 138.8E WITHIN 0NM PRES 990HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 180000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.17 FOR STS 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST STS WILL DECELERATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DECELERATE. STS WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO EAST-NORTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS. STS WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 72 HOURS.= ** WTPQ31 RJTD 180000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 3 FOR STS 0614 YAGI (0614) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 180000 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL BE STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DECELERATE. STS WILL MOVE EAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO WEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN32 PGTW 180300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 16W (YAGI) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 180000Z --- NEAR 20.7N 158.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.7N 158.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 20.4N 159.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 19.9N 159.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 19.4N 158.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 19.1N 157.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 19.5N 152.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 20.3N 147.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 21.9N 142.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT --- REMARKS: 180300Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 159.0E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 930 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.// ** WTNT43 KNHC 180234 *** TCDAT3 HURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 17 2006 THE HURRICANE IS LOOKING STRONGER THIS EVENING WITH THE RING OF EYEWALL CONVECTION COOLING AROUND THE WARM EYE. IN ADDITION... THE INNER CORE IS MORE SYMMETRIC THAN A FEW HOURS AGO WITH CIRRUS OUTFLOW EXPANDING IN ALL DIRECTIONS... ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT HELENE IS A MAJOR HURRICANE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN CONSERVATIVELY INCREASED TO 100 KT... MAKING HELENE THE SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE SEASON. THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS HINDRANCES TO FUTURE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HELENE MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY WARMER WATERS AND STAYS IN A RELATIVELY LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. CURIOUSLY... THE SHIPS/GFDL DO NOT SHOW MUCH FURTHER STRENGTHENING IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE FOR MORE INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN SHIPS/GFDL AND CLOSE TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. A SLOW WEAKENING COULD COMMENCE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS SOME MODELS HINT AT AN INCREASE IN SHEAR. HOWEVER THE LARGE SPREAD OF THE TRACK MODELS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD MAKES FOR A MORE UNCERTAIN INTENSITY FORECAST THAN USUAL AT 3-5 DAYS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED... ABOUT 315/7. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL MOTION CONTINUING FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AS RIDGING REBUILDS IN BETWEEN GORDON AND HELENE. THEREAFTER... THE BIG PROBLEM IS IF A TROUGH... NOW CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF THE UNITED STATES... WEAKENS THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO BE PICKED UP BY A SECOND TROUGH IN A FEW DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY SPLIT INTO TWO CLUSTERS. THE GFS/UKMET/NOGAPS SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH WILL LEAVE THE HURRICANE BEHIND WHILE THE ECMWF/GFDL BELIEVE THE TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE THE HURRICANE OUT TO SEA. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING WESTWARD WITH TIME... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE WESTWARD CLUSTER OF GFS/UKMET/NOGAPS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0300Z 21.6N 49.4W 100 KT 12HR VT 18/1200Z 22.3N 50.2W 105 KT 24HR VT 19/0000Z 23.0N 51.5W 110 KT 36HR VT 19/1200Z 23.3N 53.1W 110 KT 48HR VT 20/0000Z 23.6N 54.8W 110 KT 72HR VT 21/0000Z 25.0N 58.0W 100 KT 96HR VT 22/0000Z 27.5N 59.5W 95 KT 120HR VT 23/0000Z 29.5N 61.5W 90 KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH ** WTNT33 KNHC 180236 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 PM AST SUN SEP 17 2006 ...HELENE BECOMES THE SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2006 SEASON... AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.4 WEST OR ABOUT 920 MILES... 1480 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HELENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HELENE IS BECOMING A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...21.6 N...49.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH ** WTNT23 KNHC 180236 *** TCMAT3 HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 0300 UTC MON SEP 18 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 49.4W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 40SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 65SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT.......175NE 150SE 100SW 125NW. 12 FT SEAS..275NE 200SE 200SW 250NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 49.4W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 49.2W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 22.3N 50.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 90NE 65SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT...175NE 150SE 100SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.0N 51.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 90NE 65SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT...175NE 150SE 100SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 23.3N 53.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...200NE 175SE 125SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 23.6N 54.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...200NE 175SE 125SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 25.0N 58.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...200NE 175SE 125SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 27.5N 59.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 29.5N 61.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 49.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH ** WTNT22 KNHC 180237 *** TCMAT2 HURRICANE GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 0300 UTC MON SEP 18 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 51.5W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 80SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 51.5W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.9N 52.1W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 36.9N 49.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 38.0N 44.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 38.4N 37.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 38.5N 29.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.4N 51.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTNT32 KNHC 180237 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 PM AST SUN SEP 17 2006 ...GORDON MAINTAINING HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT HEADS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC... AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.5 WEST OR ABOUT 1365 MILES ...2195 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES. GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...35.4 N...51.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTNT42 KNHC 180237 *** TCDAT2 HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 17 2006 AN EYE IS STILL EVIDENT ON INFRARED IMAGES AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM 65 TO 77 KT FROM THE VARIOUS AGENCIES. GORDON CONTINUES TO MOVE UNDER AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE...AND ASSOCIATED MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR...WITH SSTS AROUND 26 DEG C. THIS REGIME SHOULD ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MORE OR LESS MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER SOME WEAKENING COULD OCCUR DUE TO COOLER SSTS AND INCREASED SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. HOWEVER AS GORDON BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH AN LARGE AND INTENSE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN NORTH ATLANTIC...THE COMBINATION OF GORDON AND THE LARGER CYCLONE SHOULD RESULT IN A POTENT EXTRATROPICAL STORM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE LARGER CYCLONE WILL DOMINATE...AND THEREFORE ABSORB...THE EXTRATROPICAL VERSION OF GORDON. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST ALTHOUGH A LITTLE STRONGER IN VIEW OF THE EXPECTED INTENSITY OF THE ABSORBING SYSTEM. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY...AS SUGGESTED BY THE NOGAPS MODEL...THAT GORDON WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS IDENTITY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE LONGER THAN EXPECTED HERE. THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CYCLONE VERY NEAR THE AZORES AS AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.. THE HEADING HAS TURNED MORE TO THE RIGHT AND IS NOW AROUND 040...AT 12 KT. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON ACCELERATION AS GORDON GETS CAUGHT UP IN INCREASING ZONAL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFDL...U.K. MET...AND GFS CONSENSUS. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY USING A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0300Z 35.4N 51.5W 70 KT 12HR VT 18/1200Z 36.9N 49.1W 65 KT 24HR VT 19/0000Z 38.0N 44.0W 65 KT 36HR VT 19/1200Z 38.4N 37.5W 60 KT 48HR VT 20/0000Z 38.5N 29.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTCA43 TJSJ 180241 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN HELENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 23 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 PM AST DOMINGO 17 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...HELENE SE CONVIERTE EN EL SEGUNDO HURACAN MAYOR DE LA TEMPORADA DEL 2006... A LAS 1100 PM AST...0300Z...EL OJO DEL HURACAN HELENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 49.4 OESTE O COMO A 920 MILLAS...1480 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE. HELENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH... 13 KM/HR Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE EN ESTE MOVIMIENTO DURANTE LA NOCHE CON UN GIRO GRADUAL AL OESTE NOROESTE EL LUNES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 115 MPH...185 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. HELENE ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA TRES EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL ES POSIBLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. HELENE SE ESTA CONVIRTIENDO EN UN CICLON TROPICAL GRANDE. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA UNAS 50 MILLAS...85 KILOMETROS...DESDE EL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 200 MILLAS...325 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA MEDIDA RECIENTEMENTE POR EL AVION DE NOAA FUE DE 962 MILIBARAS...28.41 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 PM AST...21.6 NORTE...49.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...115 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...962 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE/PASCH ** WTPZ44 KNHC 180241 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142006 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 17 2006 DESPITE AN IMPRESSIVE DISPLAY OF CONVECTION-CYCLONE DECOUPLING...MIRIAM REMAINS A TROPICAL STORM. THE WEAK CONVECTION OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON SPAWNED A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER WEST OF THE NOW FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE MID-LEVEL SWIRL IS MOVING RAPIDLY AWAY FROM THE SURFACE CENTER...IN APPROXIMATELY 30 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR. AT 2100Z...THE AUTOMATED WEATHER STATION ON ISLA CLARION REPORTED 25 KT SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 35 KT. HOWEVER...A 0000Z SHIP OBSERVATION 70 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF 35 KT AND 20-FT SEAS SUPPORTS TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY...COUNTER TO THE POOR SATELLITE PRESENTATION. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE STORM DISSIPATING IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...AND GIVEN THE CURRENT STATE OF MIRIAM THIS SEEMS HIGHLY LIKELY. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS DIRECTION BUT AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER PACE...CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AS MIRIAM RESPONDS TO A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0300Z 19.4N 114.1W 35 KT 12HR VT 18/1200Z 19.9N 114.3W 30 KT 24HR VT 19/0000Z 21.0N 114.9W 30 KT 36HR VT 19/1200Z 22.1N 115.8W 25 KT 48HR VT 20/0000Z 23.1N 116.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 21/0000Z 24.5N 117.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FIORINO/PASCH ** WTPZ24 KNHC 180242 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142006 0300 UTC MON SEP 18 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 114.1W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 75SE 100SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 50SE 175SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 114.1W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 114.0W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 19.9N 114.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 21.0N 114.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 22.1N 115.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 23.1N 116.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 24.5N 117.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 114.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER FIORINO/PASCH ** WTCA42 TJSJ 180244 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN GORDON ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 29 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 PM AST DOMINGO 17 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...GORDON MANTENIENDO FUERZA DE HURACAN A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVE AL NORESTE SOBRE EL ATLANTICO... A LAS 1100 PM AST...0300Z..EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN GORDON ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 35.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 51.5 OESTE O COMO A 1365 MILLAS...2195 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE DE AZORES. GORDON SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH...22 KM/HR Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL ESTE NORESTE CON AUMENTO GRADUAL EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 80 MPH...130 KM/HR CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICAN POCOS CAMBIOS EN SU INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 25 MILLAS...35 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 90 MILLAS...150 KM. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 983 MILIBARAS...29.03 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 PM AST...35.4 NORTE...51.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...80 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...983 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR PASCH ** WTPN32 PHNC 180400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 14E (MIRIAM) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 180000Z --- NEAR 19.4N 114.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.4N 114.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 19.9N 114.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 21.0N 114.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 22.1N 115.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 23.1N 116.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 24.5N 117.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 180400Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 114.2W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 15 FEET. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 357 NM SW OF LA PAZ. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181000Z, 181600Z, 182200Z AND 190400Z.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 180300 *** WARNING 180300. WARNING VALID 190300. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 975 HPA AT 37.6N 132.8E EAST OF ULLUNG ISLAND MOVING NORTHEAST 13 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 181500UTC AT 39.7N 133.4E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190300UTC AT 41.3N 134.4E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 180300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 180300UTC 37.6N 132.8E GOOD MOVE NE 13KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 190300UTC 41.3N 134.4E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 08KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 200000UTC 44.1N 141.3E 160NM 70% MOVE ENE 15KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 69HF 210000UTC 51.1N 149.4E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ21 RJTD 180300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0614 YAGI (0614) ANALYSIS PSTN 180300UTC 20.7N 158.9E FAIR MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 130NM FORECAST 24HF 190300UTC 20.1N 159.2E 80NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 200000UTC 20.0N 157.5E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 69HF 210000UTC 20.0N 152.4E 220NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTJP32 RJTD 180300 *** WARNING 180300. WARNING VALID 190300. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0614 YAGI (0614) 990 HPA AT 20.7N 158.9E SOUTHEAST OF MINAMITORISIMA ALMOST STATIONARY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190300UTC AT 20.1N 159.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ32 PGUM 180403 *** TCPPQ2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM YAGI (16W) ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 2 PM GUAM LST MON SEP 18 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM YAGI BEGINNING A SOUTHEAST TURN... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM YAGI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 159.0 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 875 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF AGRIHAN AND PAGAN 950 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND 1060 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. TROPICAL STORM YAGI IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH. IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN SOUTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM YAGI IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY. REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...20.6 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 159.0 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 PM GUAM LST. $$ ZIOBRO ** WTPQ32 PGUM 180407 *** TCPPQ2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM YAGI (16W) ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 2 PM GUAM LST MON SEP 18 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM YAGI BEGINNING A SOUTHEAST TURN... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM YAGI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 159.0 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 875 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF AGRIHAN AND PAGAN 950 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND 1060 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. TROPICAL STORM YAGI IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH. IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN SOUTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM YAGI IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY. REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...20.6 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 159.0 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 PM GUAM LST. $$ ZIOBRO ** WTNT80 EGRR 180511 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 18.09.2006 HURRICANE GORDON ANALYSED POSITION : 35.4N 52.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.09.2006 35.4N 52.1W MODERATE 12UTC 18.09.2006 37.0N 49.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.09.2006 38.2N 45.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2006 38.2N 40.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2006 37.3N 35.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 20.09.2006 37.3N 28.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2006 EXTRA-TROPICAL HURRICANE HELENE ANALYSED POSITION : 21.2N 49.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.09.2006 21.2N 49.1W STRONG 12UTC 18.09.2006 22.6N 49.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2006 23.4N 51.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2006 23.4N 52.7W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2006 23.5N 54.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.09.2006 23.9N 56.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2006 24.8N 57.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.09.2006 25.7N 58.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2006 26.8N 58.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.09.2006 27.5N 59.2W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.09.2006 27.9N 60.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2006 27.9N 61.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2006 27.9N 62.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRIAM ANALYSED POSITION : 19.6N 113.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.09.2006 19.6N 113.7W MODERATE 12UTC 18.09.2006 19.6N 114.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2006 20.5N 115.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2006 22.0N 115.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2006 24.1N 116.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 180511