** WTPQ20 RJTD 171800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 171800UTC 35.8N 131.2E FAIR MOVE NNE 19KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 90NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST 30KT 200NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 181800UTC 40.9N 133.7E 100NM 70% MOVE N 10KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 191800UTC 43.8N 139.8E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 13KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 72HF 201800UTC 48.4N 146.3E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP21 RJTD 171800 *** WARNING 171800. WARNING VALID 181800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 970 HPA AT 35.8N 131.2E SOUTH OF ULLUNG ISLAND MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 19 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 38.9N 132.9E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 40.9N 133.7E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 43.8N 139.8E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 48.4N 146.3E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 171800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 171800 UTC 00HR 35.9N 131.3E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR NE 35KM/H P+24HR 42.9N 135.8E 980HPA 25M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 171800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS YAGI 0614 (0614) INITIAL TIME 171800 UTC 00HR 21.0N 158.4E 995HPA 20M/S 30KTS 180KM P12HR ESE 10KM/H P+24HR 20.3N 158.7E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 19.6N 157.2E 970HPA 35M/S P+72HR 19.3N 153.9E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTKO20 RKSL 171800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 22 NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN ANALYSIS POSITION 171800UTC 35.8N 131.2E MOVEMENT N 23KT PRES/VMAX 970HPA 64KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 180600UTC 38.8N 132.8E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 58KT 24HR POSITION 181800UTC 40.8N 133.8E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 54KT 48HR POSITION 191800UTC 43.7N 139.0E WITHIN 0NM PRES 990HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTJP22 RJTD 171800 *** WARNING 171800. WARNING VALID 181800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0614 YAGI (0614) 994 HPA AT 20.8N 158.6E SOUTHEAST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING EAST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 20.3N 158.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 19.9N 158.4E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 20.0N 155.3E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 171800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0614 YAGI (0614) ANALYSIS PSTN 171800UTC 20.8N 158.6E FAIR MOVE E SLOWLY PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 120NM FORECAST 24HF 181800UTC 20.3N 158.8E 80NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 191800UTC 19.9N 158.4E 150NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 201800UTC 20.0N 155.3E 220NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 171800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 2 NAME TS 0614 YAGI ANALYSIS POSITION 171800UTC 20.8N 158.6E MOVEMENT E 4KT PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 181800UTC 20.3N 158.6E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT 48HR POSITION 191800UTC 19.8N 157.3E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 49KT 72HR POSITION 201800UTC 19.8N 154.2E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 64KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN31 PGTW 172100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/171952SEP2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 032 DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 14W 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 171800Z --- NEAR 36.0N 131.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 22 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 36.0N 131.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 40.0N 134.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 172100Z POSITION NEAR 37.0N 132.5E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROX- IMATELY 205 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSES CLEARLY INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS COMPLETED EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THEREFORE, THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 14 FEET. REFER TO TS 16W (YAGI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT33 KNHC 172030 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 500 PM AST SUN SEP 17 2006 ...NOAA PLANE CONFIRMS THAT HELENE IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE... AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.3 WEST OR ABOUT 920 MILES... 1480 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. DATA FROM A NOAA PLANE INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...21.2 N...49.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT23 KNHC 172030 *** TCMAT3 HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 2100 UTC SUN SEP 17 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 49.3W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......150NE 125SE 90SW 125NW. 12 FT SEAS..275NE 200SE 200SW 250NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 49.3W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 49.0W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 22.0N 50.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 125SE 100SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 22.8N 51.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 23.1N 53.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 23.5N 55.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 24.5N 57.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 100SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 27.1N 59.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 30.5N 61.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 49.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT43 KNHC 172031 *** TCDAT3 HURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 500 PM EDT SUN SEP 17 2006 THERE HAS BEEN A DATA BONUS TODAY. A NOAA P-3 PLANE ON A RESEARCH MISSION HAS MADE TWO FIXES ON HELENE AND JUST REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 970 MB AND FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 111 KNOTS AT 850 MB. A DROPSONDE MEASURED A SURFACE WIND OF 90 KNOTS BUT THIS MIGHT NOT REPRESENT A SUSTAINED VALUE. ALL OF THE ABOVE OBSERVATIONS COINCIDES WITH T-NUMBERS OF 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE ESTIMATED BY ALL AGENCIES. I WAS TEMPTED TO LOWER THE INTENSITY A LITTLE BIT SINCE THE SFMR ON BOARD OF NOAA PLANE HAS ONLY REPORTED PEAK WINDS OF 80 KNOTS SO FAR. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE 3-H AVERAGE OBJECTIVE NUMBERS AODT= 5.6 FROM UW-CIMSS...AND THE DROP IN PRESSURE FROM THE 976 MB VALUE IN THE PREVIOUS FIX...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 90 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES AS SUGGESTED BY SHIPS MODEL. THE OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. HELENE IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND WEAKNESS LEFT BY HURRICANE GORDON. HOWEVER...AS GORDON MOVES OUT THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD AND THIS PATTERN COULD STEER HELENE TEMPORARILY ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK UNTIL A LARGE TROUGH BECOMES IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND FORCES HELENE NORTHWARD. THE WESTWARD TURN FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS IS SHOWN BY EVERY MODEL. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY THEREAFTER SINCE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN SHIFTING THE TRACK FROM ONE RUN TO THE NEXT. THE GFS HAS HAD THE LEFTMOST TRACK SO FAR...BUT NOW THE UKMET MODEL HAS SHIFTED TO NEAR THE GFS SOLUTION. THE GFDL HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN TURNING HELENE NORTHWARD AND ITS SOLUTION IS HEAVILY WEIGHTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/2100Z 21.2N 49.3W 90 KT 12HR VT 18/0600Z 22.0N 50.3W 95 KT 24HR VT 18/1800Z 22.8N 51.5W 100 KT 36HR VT 19/0600Z 23.1N 53.0W 100 KT 48HR VT 19/1800Z 23.5N 55.0W 95 KT 72HR VT 20/1800Z 24.5N 57.5W 90 KT 96HR VT 21/1800Z 27.1N 59.5W 85 KT 120HR VT 22/1800Z 30.5N 61.0W 80 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT22 KNHC 172034 *** TCMAT2 HURRICANE GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 2100 UTC SUN SEP 17 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 52.4W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 52.4W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 53.0W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 36.3N 50.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 38.0N 46.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 39.0N 40.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 39.7N 32.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 100SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.6N 52.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA ** WTPZ44 KNHC 172034 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142006 200 PM PDT SUN SEP 17 2006 MIRIAM HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIMINISHING CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION. OBVIOUSLY THIS SYSTEM IS FEELING THE EFFECTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PERHAPS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY AT ISLA CLARION REPORTED MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 26 KT AND GUSTS TO 39 KT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. SHIP A8HR7 ABOUT 170 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER REPORTED 39 KT...HOWEVER THESE WINDS WERE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION AND LIKELY NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF MIRIAM'S ACTUAL INTENSITY. MOREOVER A QUALITY CONTROL CHECK FROM THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER INDICATED THAT THE SHIP'S WINDS WERE RUNNING A LITTLE HIGH. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS OF 2.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 35 KT. MIRIAM WILL BE MOVING INTO AN AREA OF INCREASED WIND SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS INDICATED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN 72 HOURS... BUT THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER. THE FORWARD MOTION IS A SLOW 010/4...SINCE MIRIAM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN RATHER WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN INDICATING A NORTHWARD MOTION FOLLOWED BY A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TURN AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES SHALLOW AND STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT NUDGED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE TO BE BETTER ALIGNED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/2100Z 19.3N 114.0W 35 KT 12HR VT 18/0600Z 20.1N 114.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 18/1800Z 20.9N 114.6W 30 KT 36HR VT 19/0600Z 21.9N 115.6W 25 KT 48HR VT 19/1800Z 23.0N 116.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 20/1800Z 25.0N 117.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/CANGIALOSI ** WTNT42 KNHC 172035 *** TCDAT2 HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 500 PM EDT SUN SEP 17 2006 THE SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF GORDON ONCE AGAIN REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER TODAY. AN EYE FEATURE...DEEP CONVECTION...AND WELL- ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW ARE ALL PRESENT. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT...AND DATA T-NUMBERS ARE 65 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 70 KT. GORDON HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW ESTIMATED AT 020/12. IT APPEARS THAT THE ANTICIPATED DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO THE WEST OF GORDON...AND A RIDGE BECOMING ESTABLISHED TO THE SOUTHEAST HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO STEER GORDON TO THE NORTHEAST. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE GORDON TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST..AND GORDON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT TWO DAYS NEAR THE AZORES. BY DAY 3...MOSTLY ALL THE GUIDANCE MERGES THE CYCLONE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM...AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN GORDON AS A HURRICANE THROUGH 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SLOWLY WEAKENS GORDON UNTIL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OCCURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/2100Z 34.6N 52.4W 70 KT 12HR VT 18/0600Z 36.3N 50.7W 65 KT 24HR VT 18/1800Z 38.0N 46.2W 65 KT 36HR VT 19/0600Z 39.0N 40.0W 60 KT 48HR VT 19/1800Z 39.7N 32.0W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 20/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA ** WTPZ24 KNHC 172036 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142006 2100 UTC SUN SEP 17 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 114.0W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 150SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 50SE 175SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 114.0W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 113.9W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 20.1N 114.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 20.9N 114.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 21.9N 115.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 23.0N 116.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 25.0N 117.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 114.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/CANGIALOSI ** WTCA43 TJSJ 172038 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN HELENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 22 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL082006 500 PM AST DOMINGO 17 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...UN AVION DE NOAA CONFIRMA QUE HELENE ES UN HURACAN FUERTE DE CATEGORIA DOS... A LAS 500 PM AST...210Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN HELENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 49.3 OESTE O COMO A 920 MILLAS...1480 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE. HELENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH... 15 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL AL OESTE NOROESTE EL LUNES. INFORMACION RECOPILADA POR UN AVION DE NOAA INDICA QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 105 MPH...165 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL ES POSIBLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA UNAS 40 MILLAS...65 KILOMETROS...DESDE EL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 175 MILLAS...280 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA MEDIDA RECIENTEMENTE POR EL AVION DE NOAA FUE DE 970 MILIBARAS...28.64 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 PM AST...21.2 NORTE...49.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...105 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...970 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR AVILA ** WTPN32 PGTW 172100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/171951SEP2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 16W (YAGI) WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 171800Z --- NEAR 20.7N 158.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.7N 158.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 20.6N 158.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 20.2N 159.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 19.7N 158.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 19.3N 157.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 19.3N 153.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 19.7N 149.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 20.6N 144.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT --- REMARKS: 172100Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 158.6E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 910 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14W (SHANSHAN) FOR FINAL WARNING (WTPN31 PGTW).// ** WTNT32 KNHC 172042 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 500 PM AST SUN SEP 17 2006 ...GORDON FINALLY MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.4 WEST OR ABOUT 1430 MILES ...2300 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES. GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR ...AND A NORTH-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GORDON REMAINS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR- SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...34.6 N...52.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA ** WTCA42 TJSJ 172046 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN GORDON ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 28 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL072006 500 PM AST DOMINGO 17 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...GORDON FINALMENTE MOVIENDOSE AL NORTE NORESTE... A LAS 500 PM AST...2100Z..EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN GORDON ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 34.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 52.4 OESTE O COMO A 1430 MILLAS...2300 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE DE AZORES. GORDON SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE NORESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO AL NORTE NORESTE HACIA EL NORESTE CON AUMENTO GRADUAL EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 80 MPH...130 KM/HR CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. GORDON PERMANECE COMO UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICAN POCOS CAMBIOS EN SU INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 25 MILLAS...35 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KM. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 983 MILIBARAS...29.03 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 PM AST...34.6 NORTE...52.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NORTE NORESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...80 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...983 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR MAINELLI/AVILA ** WTPN32 PGTW 172200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 14E (MIRIAM) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 171800Z --- NEAR 19.1N 113.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 114.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 20.1N 114.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 20.9N 114.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 21.9N 115.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 23.0N 116.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 25.0N 117.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 172200Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 114.0W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 15 FEET. AT 171800Z, TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 485 NM WSW OF MAZATLAN. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180400Z, 181000Z, 181600Z AND 182200Z.// ** WTPQ32 PGUM 172129 *** TCPPQ2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM YAGI (16W) ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 8 AM GUAM LST MON SEP 18 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM YAGI BEGINNING A SOUTHEAST TURN... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM YAGI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 158.6 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 850 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF AGRIHAN AND PAGAN 930 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND 1040 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. TROPICAL STORM YAGI IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 6 MPH. IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN SOUTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM YAGI IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...20.7 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 158.6 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 6 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 PM GUAM LST. $$ MIDDLEBROOKE ** WTPN32 PHNC 172200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 14E (MIRIAM) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 171800Z --- NEAR 19.1N 113.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 114.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 20.1N 114.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 20.9N 114.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 21.9N 115.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 23.0N 116.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 25.0N 117.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 172200Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 114.0W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 15 FEET. AT 171800Z, TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 485 NM WSW OF MAZATLAN. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180400Z, 181000Z, 181600Z AND 182200Z.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 172100 *** WARNING 172100. WARNING VALID 182100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 970 HPA AT 36.7N 131.6E SOUTHEAST OF ULLUNG ISLAND MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 19 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 190 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 180900UTC AT 39.3N 132.9E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 182100UTC AT 41.1N 133.6E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 172100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 172100UTC 36.7N 131.6E FAIR MOVE NNE 19KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 190NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 182100UTC 41.1N 133.6E 100NM 70% MOVE N 09KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 191800UTC 43.8N 139.8E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 13KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 69HF 201800UTC 48.4N 146.3E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTKO20 RKSL 172100 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 23 NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN ANALYSIS POSITION 172100UTC 36.7N 131.6E MOVEMENT NNE 19KT PRES/VMAX 970HPA 64KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 180900UTC 38.9N 132.5E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 58KT 24HR POSITION 182100UTC 41.0N 133.7E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 54KT 48HR POSITION 192100UTC 43.6N 138.5E WITHIN 0NM PRES 990HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTJP32 RJTD 172100 *** WARNING 172100. WARNING VALID 182100. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0614 YAGI (0614) 994 HPA AT 20.9N 158.8E SOUTHEAST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING EAST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 182100UTC AT 20.2N 159.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 172100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0614 YAGI (0614) ANALYSIS PSTN 172100UTC 20.9N 158.8E FAIR MOVE E SLOWLY PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 120NM FORECAST 24HF 182100UTC 20.2N 159.1E 80NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 191800UTC 19.9N 158.4E 150NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 69HF 201800UTC 20.0N 155.3E 220NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT =