** WTSR20 WSSS 170600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTJP21 RJTD 171200 *** WARNING 171200. WARNING VALID 181200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 960 HPA AT 34.0N 130.3E SEA AROUND TUSHIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 21 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 37.3N 132.2E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 39.8N 133.6E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 42.6N 137.2E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 45.3N 143.9E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 171200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 171200UTC 34.0N 130.3E GOOD MOVE NNE 21KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST 30KT 220NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 181200UTC 39.8N 133.6E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 13KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 48HF 191200UTC 42.6N 137.2E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 09KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 72HF 201200UTC 45.3N 143.9E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 171200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 171200 UTC 00HR 34.0N 130.3E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR NE 35KM/H P+24HR 41.0N 134.5E 980HPA 25M/S= ** WTKO20 RKSL 171200 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 20 NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN ANALYSIS POSITION 171200UTC 34.0N 130.3E MOVEMENT NNE 21KT PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 180000UTC 37.3N 132.0E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT 24HR POSITION 181200UTC 39.8N 133.5E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT 48HR POSITION 191200UTC 42.1N 136.2E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 64KT 72HR POSITION 201200UTC 44.8N 140.8E WITHIN 0NM PRES 985HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 171200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS YAGI 0614 (0614) INITIAL TIME 171200 UTC 00HR 21.2N 158.1E 995HPA 20M/S 30KTS 180KM P12HR ENE 10KM/H P+24HR 21.5N 159.2E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 19.5N 158.5E 970HPA 35M/S P+72HR 19.4N 156.5E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 171200 *** WARNING 171200. WARNING VALID 181200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0614 YAGI (0614) 1000 HPA AT 20.8N 158.1E SOUTHEAST OF MINAMITORISIMA ALMOST STATIONARY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 20.9N 158.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 21.0N 156.6E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 20.7N 155.5E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 171200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0614 YAGI (0614) ANALYSIS PSTN 171200UTC 20.8N 158.1E FAIR MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 70NM FORECAST 24HF 181200UTC 20.9N 158.0E 80NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 48HF 191200UTC 21.0N 156.6E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 72HF 201200UTC 20.7N 155.5E 220NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTPN31 PGTW 171500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/170752SEP2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 031 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 171200Z --- NEAR 34.0N 130.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 21 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 34.0N 130.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 37.7N 133.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 24 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 41.6N 137.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 171500Z POSITION NEAR 34.9N 131.4E. TYPHOON (TY) 14W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM NORTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 16W (YAGI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 171500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/170152SEP2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 16W (YAGI) WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 171200Z --- NEAR 21.0N 158.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 158.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 21.0N 158.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 20.4N 158.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 19.9N 158.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 19.6N 157.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 19.3N 154.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 19.5N 150.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 20.1N 146.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT --- REMARKS: 171500Z POSITION NEAR 21.0N 158.3E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 900 NM NORTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 14W (SHANSHAN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT22 KNHC 171433 *** TCMAT2 HURRICANE GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1500 UTC SUN SEP 17 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 53.2W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 53.2W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 53.2W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 35.2N 51.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 36.9N 48.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 38.6N 43.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 39.5N 37.2W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 40.0N 22.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 100SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z...ABORBED BY FRONT REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.6N 53.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA ** WTNT42 KNHC 171435 *** TCDAT2 HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 17 2006 GORDON REFUSES TO WEAKEN. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE HURRICANE WITH AN EYE FEATURE...DEEP CONVECTION...AND IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE 77 KT...AND AFWA WAS 65 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NUDGED UP TO 70 KT... SINCE BOTH THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES AND OVERALL APPEARANCE ARE SLIGHTLY IMPROVED. SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT OR TWO SINCE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FROM BOTH SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MAINTAIN GORDON AS A HURRICANE THROUGH 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED UNTIL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEGINS IN ABOUT TWO DAYS. THE INITIAL MOTION APPEARS TO BE 010/9...SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN BEFORE. THIS NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE DEEP- LAYER TROUGH QUICKLY APPROACHES. THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS THE SAME AS BEFORE...AND THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS WELL CLUSTERED. A SLIGHT ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST IN 24 HOURS IS EXPECTED...WITH A FASTER MOTION TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE THAT GORDON SHOULD BEGIN TO OBTAIN EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY 48 HOURS...AND BECOME MERGED WITH A FRONT IN 96 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/1500Z 33.6N 53.2W 70 KT 12HR VT 18/0000Z 35.2N 51.6W 65 KT 24HR VT 18/1200Z 36.9N 48.4W 65 KT 36HR VT 19/0000Z 38.6N 43.5W 60 KT 48HR VT 19/1200Z 39.5N 37.2W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 20/1200Z 40.0N 22.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 21/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA ** WTNT43 KNHC 171436 *** TCDAT3 HURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 17 2006 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT HELENE HAS DEVELOPED A LARGE RAGGED EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE INCREASED TO 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THE 3-HOUR AVERAGE ADVANCED OBJECTIVE TECHNIQUE FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN IS 5.6. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 90 KNOTS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AN ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES AS SUGGESTED BY SHIPS MODEL. THE OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THE FORECAST SCENARIO COULD BE DESCRIBED AS SUCH...HELENE CURRENTLY LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND MOVING TOWARD A WEAKNESS CAUSED BY A SHARP MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE JUST EAST OF THE UNITED STATES CAST. THEN...AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT THE AREA...THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY BUILD WESTWARD FORCING HELENE TO TEMPORARILY TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. AFTER 3 DAYS...A LARGER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD AND FINALLY PICK UP HELENE. THE DILEMMA IS HOW FAR WEST WILL HELENE GO SINCE TWO GOOD MODELS DIVERGE...PUTTING ME BETWEEN A ROCK AND HARD PLACE. THE GOOD GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE THE WESTERNMOST SOLUTIONS WHILE THE OUTSTANDING AND HARD TO BEAT GFDL HAS HELENE TURNING NORTHWARD FARTHER EAST. SINCE THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREME OPTIONS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES IT AS WELL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/1500Z 20.5N 49.0W 90 KT 12HR VT 18/0000Z 21.3N 50.1W 95 KT 24HR VT 18/1200Z 22.5N 51.5W 100 KT 36HR VT 19/0000Z 23.0N 53.0W 100 KT 48HR VT 19/1200Z 23.5N 54.5W 95 KT 72HR VT 20/1200Z 24.5N 57.0W 90 KT 96HR VT 21/1200Z 27.0N 59.0W 85 KT 120HR VT 22/1200Z 30.0N 59.5W 80 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT33 KNHC 171436 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 AM AST SUN SEP 17 2006 ...HELENE STRENGTHENS...FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WATER... AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.0 WEST OR ABOUT 935 MILES... 1500 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HELENE IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...20.5 N...49.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT23 KNHC 171436 *** TCMAT3 HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1500 UTC SUN SEP 17 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 49.0W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......150NE 125SE 90SW 125NW. 12 FT SEAS..275NE 200SE 200SW 250NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 49.0W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 48.6W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 21.3N 50.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 125SE 90SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 22.5N 51.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.0N 53.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 23.5N 54.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 24.5N 57.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 100SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 27.0N 59.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 30.0N 59.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 49.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPZ33 KNHC 171437 *** TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 800 AM PDT SUN SEP 17 2006 ...LANE DISSIPATING INLAND OVER WESTERN MEXICO... AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF DISSIPATING TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.6 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES...150 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN A FEW SQUALLS. LANE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...26.3 N...107.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPZ23 KNHC 171437 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 1500 UTC SUN SEP 17 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 107.6W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 107.6W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 107.5W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPZ43 KNHC 171438 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 800 AM PDT SUN SEP 17 2006 LANE HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN MEXICO AND BOTH SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON LANE. HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TODAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/1500Z 26.3N 107.6W 25 KT 12HR VT 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPZ44 KNHC 171440 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142006 800 AM PDT SUN SEP 17 2006 MIRIAM CONTINUES TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ALL OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION IS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY AT ISLA CLARION REPORTED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 29 KT AND GUSTS TO 45 KT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS OF 3.0 AND 2.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY... THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT. MIRIAM WILL BE MOVING INTO AN AREA OF INCREASED WIND SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS INDICATED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN 96 HOURS...CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE SHIPS...GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. A 0537 UTC AMSU PASS HELPED TO LOCATE THE CENTER. THE FORWARD MOTION IS ONLY 015/4...SINCE MIRIAM IS EMBEDED WITHIN RATHER WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A TURN MORE TO NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. THIS FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE TO BECOME BETTER ALIGNED WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/1500Z 19.2N 113.9W 40 KT 12HR VT 18/0000Z 19.9N 113.7W 40 KT 24HR VT 18/1200Z 20.7N 113.9W 35 KT 36HR VT 19/0000Z 21.5N 114.5W 30 KT 48HR VT 19/1200Z 22.5N 115.3W 30 KT 72HR VT 20/1200Z 23.5N 116.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 21/1200Z 25.0N 116.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/CANGIALOSI ** WTPZ24 KNHC 171440 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142006 1500 UTC SUN SEP 17 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 113.9W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 120SE 120SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 180SE 150SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 113.9W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 113.9W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.9N 113.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 120SE 120SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 20.7N 113.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 90SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 21.5N 114.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 22.5N 115.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 23.5N 116.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 25.0N 116.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 113.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA ** WTNT32 KNHC 171442 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 AM AST SUN SEP 17 2006 ...GORDON REFUSES TO WEAKEN... AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.2 WEST OR ABOUT 1495 MILES ...2405 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES. GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GORDON REMAINS A CATEGORY-ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR- SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...33.6 N...53.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA ** WTCA43 TJSJ 171444 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN HELENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 21 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 AM AST DOMINGO 17 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...HELENE SE FORTALECE UN POCO... A LAS 1100 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN HELENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 20.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 49.0 OESTE O COMO A 935 MILLAS...1500 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE. HELENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH... 17 KM/HR. SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE HOY CON UN GIRO GRADUAL AL OESTE NOROESTE EL LUNES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO A CERCA DE 105 MPH...165 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. HELENE IS UN FUERTE HURACAN CATEGORIA DOS EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL ES POSIBLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA UNAS 40 MILLAS...65 KILOMETROS...DESDE EL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 175 MILLAS...280 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 970 MILIBARAS...28.64 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 AM AST...20.5 NORTE...49.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...105 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...970 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR AVILA ** WTCA43 TJSJ 171445 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN HELENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 21 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 AM AST DOMINGO 17 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...HELENE SE INTENSIFICA...SE PRONOSTICA QUE PERMANEZCA SOBRE LAS AGUAS... A LAS 1100 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN HELENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 20.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 49.0 OESTE O COMO A 935 MILLAS...1500 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE. HELENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH... 17 KM/HR. SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE HOY CON UN GIRO GRADUAL AL OESTE NOROESTE EL LUNES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO A CERCA DE 105 MPH...165 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. HELENE IS UN FUERTE HURACAN CATEGORIA DOS EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL ES POSIBLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA UNAS 40 MILLAS...65 KILOMETROS...DESDE EL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 175 MILLAS...280 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 970 MILIBARAS...28.64 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 AM AST...20.5 NORTE...49.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...105 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...970 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR AVILA ** WTCA42 TJSJ 171453 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN GORDON ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 27 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 AM AST DOMINGO 17 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...GORDON SE NIEGA A DEBILITARSE... A LAS 1100 PM AST...1500Z..EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN GORDON ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 33.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 53.2 OESTE O COMO A 1495 MILLAS...2405 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE DE AZORES. GORDON SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CON AUMENTO GRADUAL EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 80 MPH...130 KM/HR CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. GORDON PERMANECE COMO UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICAN POCOS CAMBIOS EN SU INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 25 MILLAS...35 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KM. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 983 MILIBARAS...29.03 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 AM AST...33.6 NORTE...53.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...80 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...983 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR MAINELLI/AVILA ** WTPQ20 BABJ 171500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 171500 UTC 00HR 34.9N 130.7E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR NE 35KM/H= ** WTPN31 PHNC 171600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/171435SEP2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13E (LANE) WARNING NR 017 DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 13E 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 171200Z --- NEAR 26.0N 107.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND REPEAT POSIT: 26.3N 107.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 27.0N 108.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 171600Z POSITION NEAR 26.5N 107.7W. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MON- ITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED 197 NM NNW OF MAZATLAN.REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14E (MIRIAM) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 171600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/171530SEP2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 14E (MIRIAM) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 171200Z --- NEAR 19.2N 113.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 113.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 19.9N 113.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 20.7N 113.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 21.5N 114.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 22.5N 115.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 23.5N 116.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 25.0N 116.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 171600Z POSITION NEAR 19.4N 113.8W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 15 FEET. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 361 NM SW OF LA PAZ. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172200Z, 180400Z, 181000Z AND 181600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13E (LANE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 171500 *** WARNING 171500. WARNING VALID 181500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 965 HPA AT 34.8N 130.7E SEA AROUND TUSHIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 21 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 110 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 180300UTC AT 38.1N 132.4E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 181500UTC AT 40.2N 133.2E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 171500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 171500UTC 34.8N 130.7E FAIR MOVE NNE 21KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 110NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST 30KT 220NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 181500UTC 40.2N 133.2E 100NM 70% MOVE N 10KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 45HF 191200UTC 42.6N 137.2E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 09KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 69HF 201200UTC 45.3N 143.9E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTKO20 RKSL 171500 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 21 NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN ANALYSIS POSITION 171500UTC 34.8N 130.7E MOVEMENT NNE 21KT PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 180300UTC 37.3N 132.1E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT 24HR POSITION 181500UTC 39.8N 133.3E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT 48HR POSITION 191500UTC 42.7N 136.7E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 64KT 60HR POSITION 200300UTC 44.2N 139.8E WITHIN 0NM PRES 985HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ21 RJTD 171500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0614 YAGI (0614) ANALYSIS PSTN 171500UTC 20.8N 158.4E FAIR MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 90NM FORECAST 24HF 181500UTC 20.7N 158.0E 80NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 45HF 191200UTC 21.0N 156.6E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 69HF 201200UTC 20.7N 155.5E 220NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTPQ32 PGUM 171653 *** TCPPQ2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM YAGI (16W) ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 2 AM GUAM LST MON SEP 18 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM YAGI... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 1 AM GUAM LST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM YAGI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 158.3 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 835 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF AGRIHAN AND PAGAN 920 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND 1035 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. TROPICAL STORM YAGI IS MOVING EAST AT 6 MPH. IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN SOUTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM YAGI IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 1 AM POSITION...21.0 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 158.3 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING EAST AT 6 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 AM GUAM LST. $$ MIDDLEBROOKE ** WTNT80 EGRR 171724 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 17.09.2006 TROPICAL STORM LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 25.0N 107.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 17.09.2006 25.0N 107.7W WEAK 00UTC 18.09.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE GORDON ANALYSED POSITION : 33.3N 53.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 17.09.2006 33.3N 53.2W MODERATE 00UTC 18.09.2006 35.7N 50.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.09.2006 38.4N 49.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2006 39.1N 43.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2006 38.5N 37.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2006 EXTRA-TROPICAL HURRICANE HELENE ANALYSED POSITION : 20.1N 48.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 17.09.2006 20.1N 48.5W MODERATE 00UTC 18.09.2006 21.3N 49.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 18.09.2006 22.0N 51.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.09.2006 22.4N 52.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2006 22.4N 54.2W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2006 22.6N 55.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.09.2006 22.7N 57.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2006 23.4N 58.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 21.09.2006 24.5N 59.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2006 25.6N 60.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.09.2006 25.8N 61.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.09.2006 26.4N 62.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.09.2006 26.5N 64.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM ANALYSED POSITION : 18.9N 114.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 17.09.2006 18.9N 114.0W MODERATE 00UTC 18.09.2006 19.8N 113.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.09.2006 20.4N 114.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.09.2006 21.5N 115.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2006 22.6N 116.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2006 24.5N 117.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 171724