** WTIN20 DEMS 170745 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 17-09-2006(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER CENTRAL AND ADJOINING SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL, ANDAMAN SEA AND EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH EAST ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 24 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????????? ** WTPQ20 BABJ 170600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 170600 UTC 00HR 32.2N 129.0E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR NE 45KM/H P+24HR 40.8N 135.5E 985HPA 25M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 170600 *** WARNING 170600. WARNING VALID 180600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 950 HPA AT 32.2N 129.0E WEST OF KYUSYU MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 20 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 34.6N 131.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 38.6N 133.2E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 42.4N 136.9E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 45.7N 141.4E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 170600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 170600UTC 32.2N 129.0E GOOD MOVE NNE 20KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST 30KT 200NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 180600UTC 38.6N 133.2E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 21KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 48HF 190600UTC 42.4N 136.9E 170NM 70% MOVE NNE 11KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 72HF 200600UTC 45.7N 141.4E 290NM 70% MOVE NE 11KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 170600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 18 NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN ANALYSIS POSITION 170600UTC 32.2N 129.0E MOVEMENT NNE 21KT PRES/VMAX 950HPA 80KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 171800UTC 35.4N 131.0E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 955HPA 76KT 24HR POSITION 180600UTC 38.1N 132.5E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 965HPA 64KT 48HR POSITION 190600UTC 41.1N 135.3E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 56KT 72HR POSITION 200600UTC 43.9N 139.0E WITHIN 270NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 49KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTJP22 RJTD 170600 *** WARNING 170600. WARNING VALID 180600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0614 YAGI (0614) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 21.1N 157.6E SOUTHEAST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTH SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 21.7N 158.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 22.2N 158.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 21.9N 156.2E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 170600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0614 YAGI (0614) UPGRADED FROM TD ANALYSIS PSTN 170600UTC 21.1N 157.6E FAIR MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 1002HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 70NM FORECAST 24HF 180600UTC 21.7N 158.1E 80NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 998HPA MXWD 040KT 48HF 190600UTC 22.2N 158.5E 150NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 72HF 200600UTC 21.9N 156.2E 220NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 170600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS YAGI 0614 (0614) INITIAL TIME 170600 UTC 00HR 21.1N 157.6E 100HPA 18M/S 30KTS 150KM P12HR NNE 10KM/H P+24HR 21.7N 158.3E 995HPA 20M/S P+48HR 22.1N 158.5E 985HPA 25M/S P+72HR 22.2N 157.2E 980HPA 30M/S= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 170600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.16 FOR TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 170600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN DECELERATE. TY WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 170600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 1 NAME TS 0614 YAGI ANALYSIS POSITION 170600UTC 21.1N 157.6E MOVEMENT N 4KT PRES/VMAX 1002HPA 35KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 180600UTC 21.7N 158.1E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 998HPA 39KT 48HR POSITION 190600UTC 22.3N 158.5E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT 72HR POSITION 200600UTC 22.1N 156.2E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 49KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ31 RJTD 170600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 2 FOR TS 0614 YAGI (0614) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 170600 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 170900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/170752SEP2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 030 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 170600Z --- NEAR 32.3N 129.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 21 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 32.3N 129.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 36.4N 131.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 23 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 40.7N 133.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 170900Z POSITION NEAR 33.3N 129.6E. TYPHOON (TY) 14W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 16W (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 170600 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS YAGI 0614 (0614) INITIAL TIME 170600 UTC 00HR 21.1N 157.6E 1000HPA 18M/S 30KTS 150KM P12HR NNE 10KM/H P+24HR 21.7N 158.3E 995HPA 20M/S P+48HR 22.1N 158.5E 985HPA 25M/S P+72HR 22.2N 157.2E 980HPA 30M/S= ** WTPZ24 KNHC 170837 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142006 0900 UTC SUN SEP 17 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 113.9W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 120SE 120SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 20NE 180SE 120SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 113.9W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 114.0W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.7N 113.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 120SE 120SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 20.5N 113.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 120SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 21.5N 113.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 22.4N 114.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 24.0N 115.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 25.0N 116.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 113.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTNT22 KNHC 170837 *** TCMAT2 HURRICANE GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 0900 UTC SUN SEP 17 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 53.3W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 53.3W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 53.6W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 33.8N 52.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 35.9N 49.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 37.8N 45.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 38.7N 39.6W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 40.0N 24.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 100SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z...MERGED WITH FRONT REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.6N 53.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/KNABB ** WTPZ44 KNHC 170844 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142006 200 AM PDT SUN SEP 17 2006 MIRIAM IS A SHEARED TROPICAL STORM WITH ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. BASED ON A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 0220 UTC...A COUPLE OF NEARBY SHIP OBSERVATIONS...AND ON AN OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE USING THE SHEAR PATTERN...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KT. THE WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SO STRENGTHENING DOES NOT APPEAR VERY LIKELY. ON THE CONTRARY...THE SHIPS AND GFDL BOTH FORECAST GRADUAL WEAKENING...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER RATE THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. WEAKENING WILL ALSO BE HASTENED WHEN THE CYCLONE REACHES COOLER WATERS IN A FEW DAYS. USING SEVERAL PASSIVE MICROWAVE OVERPASSES AND A COUPLE OF QUIKSCAT OVERPASSES DURING THE PAST 18 HOURS OR SO...THE FORWARD MOTION APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN ABOUT 015/4. WITH LANE WEAKENING OVER LAND...ITS INFLUENCE ON MIRIAM IS NOT ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT AND THE STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD REMAIN WEAK. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWEST...AT A CONTINUED SLOW PACE...IN ACCORDANCE WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT IS ADJUSTED A BIT TO THE LEFT CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0900Z 19.1N 113.9W 40 KT 12HR VT 17/1800Z 19.7N 113.7W 40 KT 24HR VT 18/0600Z 20.5N 113.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 18/1800Z 21.5N 113.7W 35 KT 48HR VT 19/0600Z 22.4N 114.3W 30 KT 72HR VT 20/0600Z 24.0N 115.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 21/0600Z 25.0N 116.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTNT32 KNHC 170847 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 500 AM AST SUN SEP 17 2006 ...GORDON MOVING NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.3 WEST OR ABOUT 670 MILES... 1080 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA. GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...32.6 N...53.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/KNABB ** WTPN32 PGTW 170900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/170152SEP2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 16W WARNING NR 002 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 170600Z --- NEAR 21.0N 157.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 157.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 21.5N 158.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 21.1N 159.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 20.3N 159.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 19.6N 158.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 19.1N 157.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 19.3N 153.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 19.7N 148.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT --- REMARKS: 170900Z POSITION NEAR 21.1N 157.8E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 875 NM NORTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 09 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 14W (SHANSHAN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPZ23 KNHC 170851 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 0900 UTC SUN SEP 17 2006 AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN NORTHWARD TO ALTATA. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 107.4W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 80SE 80SW 20NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 107.4W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 107.4W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 26.3N 107.5W...DISSIPATING INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 107.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTNT23 KNHC 170852 *** TCMAT3 HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 0900 UTC SUN SEP 17 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 48.2W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......150NE 125SE 90SW 125NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 180SE 180SW 225NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 48.2W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 47.9W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.7N 49.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 125SE 90SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.7N 50.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 22.6N 51.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 23.3N 53.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 24.0N 56.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 100SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 26.0N 58.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 29.0N 59.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 48.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB ** WTNT33 KNHC 170853 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 500 AM AST SUN SEP 17 2006 ...HELENE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE.... AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.2 WEST OR ABOUT 980 MILES... 1580 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...20.0 N...48.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB ** WTCA42 TJSJ 170853 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN GORDON ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 26 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL072006 500 AM AST DOMINGO 17 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...GORDON MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL NORTE SOBRE EL ATLANTICO CENTRAL... A LAS 500 PM AST...0900Z..EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN GORDON ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 32.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 53.3 OESTE O COMO A 670 MILLAS...1080 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE BERMUDA. GORDON SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CON AUMENTO GRADUAL EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 75 MPH...120 KM/HR CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA UN DEBILITAMIENTO LENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 35 MILLAS...35 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KM. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 987 MILIBARAS...29.15 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 AM AST...32.6 NORTE...53.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...75 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...987 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BRENNA/KNABB ** WTPZ33 KNHC 170856 *** TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 200 AM PDT SUN SEP 17 2006 ...LANE WEAKENING QUICKLY AS IT PROGRESSES INLAND... AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN NORTHWARD TO ALTATA. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.4 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES...160 KM...EAST OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO. LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY UNTIL THE CIRCULATION LIKELY DISSIPATES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER INLAND...AND THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. COASTAL TIDE LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN THE WARNING AREA THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...25.6 N...107.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTPZ43 KNHC 170859 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 200 AM PDT SUN SEP 17 2006 LANE IS PROGRESSING INLAND AT 335/6 AND WEAKENING QUICKLY OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO. NOT MUCH DEEP CONVECTION IS LEFT...BUT A CIRCULATION IS STILL EVIDENT IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD...AND IT IS ASSUMED THAT SOME TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT...AND LANE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION IN A FEW HOURS. THE CIRCULATION WILL PROBABLY DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0900Z 25.6N 107.4W 45 KT 12HR VT 17/1800Z 26.3N 107.5W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTCA43 TJSJ 170859 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN HELENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 20 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL082006 500 AM AST DOMINGO 17 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...HELENE SE FORTALECE UN POCO... A LAS 500 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN HELENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 20.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 48.2 OESTE O COMO A 980 MILLAS...1580 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE. HELENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH... 15 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO ENTRE OESTE-NOROESTE Y NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 85 MPH...140 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA UNAS 25 MILLAS...35 KILOMETROS...DESDE EL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 175 MILLAS...280 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 979 MILIBARAS...28.91 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 AM AST...20.0 NORTE...48.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...85 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...979 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BROWN/KNABB ** WTNT42 KNHC 170859 *** TCDAT2 HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 500 AM EDT SUN SEP 17 2006 GORDON HAS BEGUN TO MOVE NORTHWARD...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 010/05. A MID-LEVEL CYCLONE OFFSHORE OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL GIVE GORDON A KICK TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY...PUSHING THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTH SIDE OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THEREAFTER...A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND FURTHER ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES. THE TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN...AND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS. CONVECTION HAS MADE A COMEBACK ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF GORDON'S RAGGED EYE...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF -70 TO -80C SEEN IN POST-ECLIPSE GOES-12 IMAGERY. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CI NUMBERS OF 4.0 FROM SAB AND TAFB...COMBINED WITH THE IMPROVED SATELLITE APPEARANCE JUSTIFY MAINTAINING AN INTENSITY OF 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INTENSITY KEEPS GORDON AS A HURRICANE AT 12 HOURS GIVEN THE RECENT IMPROVED APPEARANCE OF THE CYCLONE...AND INDICATES SLOW WEAKENING THEREAFTER AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS. THE GLOBAL MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NOGAPS...SUGGEST THAT GORDON WILL BECOME EXTRATROPICAL SHORTLY AFTER 48 HOURS. THE GFS...UKMET...CANADIAN...ECMWF...AND GFDL MODELS SHOW GORDON MERGING WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM DURING DAY 3. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS GORDON PASSING CLOSE TO THE AZORES AS A SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AT 72 HOURS AND INDICATES MERGER WITH THE FRONT BY 96 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD OCCUR A LITTLE SOONER. THE WIND RADII FORECAST REFLECTS THE EXPANSION OF THE 34-KT WINDS LATE IN THE PERIOD IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO THE MORE EASTERLY MOTION OF THE CYCLONE AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN GORDON AND THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0900Z 32.6N 53.3W 65 KT 12HR VT 17/1800Z 33.8N 52.4W 65 KT 24HR VT 18/0600Z 35.9N 49.8W 60 KT 36HR VT 18/1800Z 37.8N 45.5W 60 KT 48HR VT 19/0600Z 38.7N 39.6W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 20/0600Z 40.0N 24.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 21/0600Z...MERGED WITH FRONT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/KNABB ** WTNT43 KNHC 170900 *** TCDAT3 HURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 500 AM EDT SUN SEP 17 2006 SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE AROUND THE CENTER OF HELENE...WITH A BROAD BANDING TYPE EYE IS SEEN IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. GIVEN THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE...A SOMEWHAT SURPRISING...VERY LARGE 45 TO 60 NM WIDE EYE WAS DETECTED ON A RECENT 0502 UTC AQUA MICROWAVE OVERPASS. BASED ON THE MICROWAVE DATA AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KT. THE FUTURE TRACK OF HELENE APPEARS TO BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE HANDLING A COUPLE OF KEY FEATURES. THE FIRST IS THE AMOUNT OF RIDGING THAT BUILDS BETWEEN HELENE AND THE DEPARTING HURRICANE GORDON TO THE NORTH...AND THE SECOND IS THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ANY CASE...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST HEADING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE MODEL SPREAD REMAINS EXTREMELY LARGE. THE GFS REMAINS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...AS IT WEAKENS THE TROUGH BETWEEN THE U.S. AND BERMUDA AND BUILDS A NARROW MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE...ALLOWING HELENE TO MOVE MORE WESTWARD. THE REMAINDER OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS KEEP ENOUGH OF A TROUGH NEAR BERMUDA TO IMPART A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT DAYS 4 AND 5. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE GFDL...WHICH USES THE INITIAL CONDITIONS OF THE GFS MODEL...IS ON THE FAR RIGHT SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR AS TO WHICH MODEL SOLUTION MAY BE CORRECT...THE OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH IS A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH LOW SHEAR AND WARMER SSTS ALONG THE PREDICTED PATH OF HELENE...THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE THROUGH 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT THAT HELENE WILL BE APPROACHING AN AREA OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS SOME WEAKENING AT DAYS 4 AND 5...HOWEVER NOT AS MUCH INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0900Z 20.0N 48.2W 75 KT 12HR VT 17/1800Z 20.7N 49.3W 80 KT 24HR VT 18/0600Z 21.7N 50.5W 85 KT 36HR VT 18/1800Z 22.6N 51.7W 90 KT 48HR VT 19/0600Z 23.3N 53.2W 95 KT 72HR VT 20/0600Z 24.0N 56.0W 95 KT 96HR VT 21/0600Z 26.0N 58.0W 85 KT 120HR VT 22/0600Z 29.0N 59.0W 80 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB ** WTPQ20 BABJ 170900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 170900 UTC 00HR 33.0N 129.5E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR NE 45KM/H P+24HR 41.3N 135.9E 985HPA 25M/S= ** WTPQ32 PGUM 170923 *** TCPPQ2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM YAGI (16W) ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 8 PM GUAM LST SUN SEP 17 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM YAGI... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM YAGI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 157.8 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 800 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF AGRIHAN 805 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF PAGAN 895 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND 1010 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. TROPICAL STORM YAGI CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST AT 8 MPH. IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND BEGIN TURNING SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. YAGI IS FORECAST TO LOOP IN A CLOCKWISE DIRECTION AND EVENTUALLY HEAD WEST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM YAGI IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...21.1 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 157.8 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 8 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 AM GUAM LST MONDAY MORNING. $$ MCELROY ** WTPN31 PHNC 171000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/162135SEP2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (LANE) WARNING NR 016 DOWNGRADED FROM HURRICANE 13E 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 170600Z --- NEAR 25.3N 107.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.6N 107.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 26.3N 107.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 171000Z POSITION NEAR 25.8N 107.4W. AT 091706 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 154 NM NNW OF MAZATLAN. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14E (MIRIAM) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 171000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/162130SEP2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 14E (MIRIAM) WARNING NR 005 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 170600Z --- NEAR 18.9N 114.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 113.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 19.7N 113.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 20.5N 113.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 21.5N 113.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 22.4N 114.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 24.0N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 25.0N 116.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 171000Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 113.8W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 14 FEET. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 366 NM SW OF LA PAZ. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171600Z, 172200Z, 180400Z AND 181000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13E (LANE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 170900 *** WARNING 170900. WARNING VALID 180900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 950 HPA AT 32.9N 129.6E WEST OF KYUSYU MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 18 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 172100UTC AT 36.0N 131.6E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 180900UTC AT 39.3N 133.5E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 170900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 170900UTC 32.9N 129.6E GOOD MOVE NNE 18KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST 30KT 200NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 180900UTC 39.3N 133.5E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 18KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 45HF 190600UTC 42.4N 136.9E 170NM 70% MOVE NNE 11KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 69HF 200600UTC 45.7N 141.4E 290NM 70% MOVE NE 11KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTPQ21 RJTD 170900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0614 YAGI (0614) ANALYSIS PSTN 170900UTC 21.0N 157.8E FAIR MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 70NM FORECAST 24HF 180900UTC 21.4N 158.1E 80NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 998HPA MXWD 040KT 45HF 190600UTC 22.2N 158.5E 150NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 69HF 200600UTC 21.9N 156.2E 220NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 170900 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 19 NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN ANALYSIS POSITION 170900UTC 32.9N 129.6E MOVEMENT NNE 18KT PRES/VMAX 950HPA 80KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 172100UTC 35.6N 131.0E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 955HPA 76KT 24HR POSITION 180900UTC 38.0N 132.4E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 965HPA 64KT 48HR POSITION 190900UTC 41.0N 135.0E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 56KT 72HR POSITION 200900UTC 43.9N 138.7E WITHIN 270NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 49KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPZ33 KNHC 171129 *** TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 500 AM PDT SUN SEP 17 2006 ...LANE DISSIPATING INLAD MEXICO... AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...ALL WARNINGS FOR MEXICO HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE WAS INLAND MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.5 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES...165 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO. LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE CIRCULATION DISSIPATES LATER THIS MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...50 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER INLAND...AND THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...26.0 N...107.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA