** WTSR20 WSSS 161800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 170000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 170000 UTC 00HR 30.3N 128.0E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NNE 40KM/H P+24HR 38.0N 132.8E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 45.7N 138.2E 990HPA 20M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 170000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 170000UTC 30.3N 128.0E GOOD MOVE NNE 18KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST 30KT 200NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 180000UTC 37.3N 133.1E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 18KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 48HF 190000UTC 40.4N 135.1E 170NM 70% MOVE NNE 08KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 72HF 200000UTC 42.3N 138.1E 290NM 70% MOVE NE 06KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 170000 *** WARNING 170000. WARNING VALID 180000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 940 HPA AT 30.3N 128.0E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 18 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 34.0N 130.8E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 37.3N 133.1E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 40.4N 135.1E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 42.3N 138.1E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 170000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 16 NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN ANALYSIS POSITION 170000UTC 30.3N 128.0E MOVEMENT NNE 18KT PRES/VMAX 940HPA 87KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 171200UTC 34.0N 130.0E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 950HPA 80KT 24HR POSITION 180000UTC 36.7N 131.5E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT 48HR POSITION 190000UTC 40.2N 134.4E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 64KT 72HR POSITION 200000UTC 42.4N 137.8E WITHIN 270NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 58KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 170000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.15 FOR TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 170000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN DECELERATE. TY WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 170000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 170000UTC 20.7N 157.1E FAIR MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 1004HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 180000UTC 21.5N 157.1E 150NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPN31 PGTW 170300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/170152SEP2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 029 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 170000Z --- NEAR 30.4N 128.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 20 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 30.4N 128.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 33.6N 130.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 20 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 37.1N 132.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 170300Z POSITION NEAR 31.2N 128.5E. TYPHOON (TY) 14W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ31 RJTD 170000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 20.7N 157.1E 1.GENERAL COMMENTS POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 170000 UTC IS FAIR. TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TD WILL MOVE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD FEATURES OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW HAVE BECOME DISTINCT. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTNT42 KNHC 170230 *** TCDAT2 HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 16 2006 GORDON HAS CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A RAGGED EYE FEATURE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALTHOUGH A 16/2351Z SSMI OVERPASS INDICATED THE NORTHERN EYEWALL WAS BEGINNING TO ERODE. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE 3 AGENCIES SUGEGST THAT GORDON IS A BORDERLINE 65-KT HURRICANE...AND THAT IS THE INTENSITY USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. DRY AIR BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD HELP TO CONTINUE THE SLOW WEAKENING PROCESS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST IS FORECAST TO CAPTURE GORDON AND TURN THE CYCLONE INTO A SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM VERY NEAR THE AZORES ISLANDS. THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 360/03. NORTHWARD RIDGING TO THE EAST OF GORDON NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOULD NUDGE THE CYCLONE SLOWLY NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO... AFTER WHICH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TURN GORDON NORTHEASTWARD BY 36-48 HOURS...AND THEN ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE RAPIDLY EASTWARD AFTER THAT. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WHICH BRINGS GORDON VERY CLOSE TO THE AZORES ISLANDS AS A 50-KT EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT GORDON COULD MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM BEFORE IT REACHES THE AZORES ISLANDS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0300Z 32.0N 53.9W 65 KT 12HR VT 17/1200Z 33.3N 53.2W 60 KT 24HR VT 18/0000Z 35.3N 51.2W 60 KT 36HR VT 18/1200Z 37.4N 47.3W 55 KT 48HR VT 19/0000Z 38.9N 41.7W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 20/0000Z 40.0N 27.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 21/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTNT22 KNHC 170231 *** TCMAT2 HURRICANE GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 0300 UTC SUN SEP 17 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 53.9W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 53.9W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 53.9W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 33.3N 53.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 35.3N 51.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 37.4N 47.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 38.9N 41.7W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 40.0N 27.5W...EXTRATROPICAL NEAR AZORES MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 80SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.0N 53.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTNT32 KNHC 170235 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 16 2006 ...GORDON BARLEY A HURRICANE AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC OCEAN... AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.9 WEST OR ABOUT 640 MILES... 1025 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA. GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND GORDON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...32.0 N...53.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPZ23 KNHC 170236 *** TCMEP3 HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 0300 UTC SUN SEP 17 2006 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN NORTHWARD TO ALTATA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 107.4W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 80SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 107.4W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 107.3W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 25.8N 107.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 60SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 26.7N 108.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 27.5N 108.7W...INLAND DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 107.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART ** WTNT23 KNHC 170236 *** TCMAT3 HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 0300 UTC SUN SEP 17 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 47.5W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 100SW 125NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 180SE 180SW 225NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 47.5W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 47.1W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.2N 48.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 21.2N 49.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 135NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 22.1N 50.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 22.9N 52.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 24.1N 55.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 26.0N 57.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 29.0N 58.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 47.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTNT33 KNHC 170240 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 16 2006 ...HELENE GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.5 WEST OR ABOUT 1025 MILES ...1645 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...19.5 N...47.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTCA42 TJSJ 170241 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN GORDON ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 25 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 PM AST SABADO 16 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...GORDON POBREMENTE COMO HURACAN A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVE LENTAMENTA HACIA EL NORTE SOBRE MAR ABIERTO DEL ATLANTICO... A LAS 1100 PM AST...0300Z..EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN GORDON ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 32.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 53.9 OESTE O COMO A 640 MILLAS...1025 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE BERMUDA. GORDON SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 3 MPH...6 KM/HR. SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CON AUMENTO GRADUAL EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 75 MPH CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA UN DEBILITAMIENTO LENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONVIERTA EN TORMENTA TROPICAL EL DOMINGO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 25 MILLAS...35 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KM. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 987 MILIBARAS...29.15 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 PM AST...32.0 NORTE...53.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 3 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...75 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...987 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR MAINELLI/BEVEN ** WTCA42 TJSJ 170242 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN GORDON ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 25 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 PM AST SABADO 16 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...GORDON POBREMENTE COMO HURACAN A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVE LENTAMENTA HACIA EL NORTE SOBRE MAR ABIERTO DEL ATLANTICO... A LAS 1100 PM AST...0300Z..EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN GORDON ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 32.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 53.9 OESTE O COMO A 640 MILLAS...1025 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE BERMUDA. GORDON SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 3 MPH...6 KM/HR. SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CON AUMENTO GRADUAL EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 75 MPH CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA UN DEBILITAMIENTO LENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONVIERTA EN TORMENTA TROPICAL EL DOMINGO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 25 MILLAS...35 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KM. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 987 MILIBARAS...29.15 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 PM AST...32.0 NORTE...53.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 3 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...75 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...987 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR STEWART ** WTCA43 TJSJ 170245 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN HELENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 19 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 PM AST SABADO 16 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...HELENE TORNANDOSE UN POCO MEJOR ORGANIZADA SOBRE EL MAR ABIERTO DEL ATLANTICO... A LAS 1100 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN HELENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 19.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 47.5 OESTE O COMO A 1025 MILLAS...1645 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE. HELENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH... 17 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO ENTRE OESTE-NOROESTE Y NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 80 MPH...130 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA UNAS 25 MILLAS...35 KILOMETROS...DESDE EL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 175 MILLAS...280 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 984 MILIBARAS...29.06 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 PM AST...19.5 NORTE...47.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...80 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...984 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR STEWART ** WTPZ24 KNHC 170246 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142006 0300 UTC SUN SEP 17 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 114.4W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 20NE 180SE 120SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 114.4W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 114.5W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.8N 114.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.5N 113.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 20.6N 113.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 21.6N 113.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 23.1N 113.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 65SE 65SW 20NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 24.5N 114.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 26.0N 115.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 114.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER FIORINO/STEWART ** WTNT43 KNHC 170259 *** TCDAT3 HURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 16 2006 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/09 KT...DESPITE A SHORT TERM MOTION OF 290/09 BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. THE LATTER MOTION IS BELIEVED TO BE A SHORT TERM WOBBLE AS THE CENTER REORGANIZES WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON HELENE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THEN MAKE A SLIGHT WESTWARD BEND IN 48-72 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE MODELS DIVERGE QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE GFDL...UKMET...CANADIAN...AND NOGAPS MODEL TAKING HELENE NORTHWARD...WHEREAS THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...THE BAMS...AND THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS KEEP THE HURRICANE ON A MORE WESTWARD COURSE AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF HELENE OFF THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY DAY 5. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THE UPPER-LOW THAT HAS RECENTLY MOVED OFF THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC COAST HAS BEEN MOVING EASTWARD SIMILAR TO THE GFS SOLUTION...RATHER THAN DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD BERMUDA AS FORECAST BY THE OTHER MODELS. WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NOW INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER-AIR DATA TO BE ON THE SOUTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER-LOW... THE 18Z GFS RUN MAY BE INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE MODEL FORECAST TRACKS COULD BE FORTHCOMING. HOWEVER...UNTIL THE OTHER MODELS MAKE A CHANGE SIMILAR TO THE GFS...THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS ONLY NUDGED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD...BASED MAINLY ON THE MORE SOUTHERLY INITIAL POSITION...AND IS SIMILAR TO BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS AT 96 AND 120 HOURS. AN EARLIER WINDSAT MICROWAVE OVERPASS INDICATED HELENE POSSESSED A WELL DEVELOPED LOW-LEVEL EYE FEATURE. SINCE THEN...THE RAGGED EYE FEATURE NOTED PREVIOUSLY IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS ERODED...ALTHOUGH THE PAST COUPLE OF IMAGES SUGGEST THAT A BANDING EYE FEATURE MAY BE FORMING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO 70 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS HELENE CONTINUES TO BATTLE PERIODIC INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN AND UPSTREAM SSTS FAVORS MORE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION...BUT IT IS TOO DIFFICULT TO PREDICT AT THIS TIME JUST WHEN AND IF HELENE WILL EVENTUALLY OVERCOME THE EFFECTS OF THE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0300Z 19.5N 47.5W 70 KT 12HR VT 17/1200Z 20.2N 48.5W 75 KT 24HR VT 18/0000Z 21.2N 49.7W 80 KT 36HR VT 18/1200Z 22.1N 50.8W 85 KT 48HR VT 19/0000Z 22.9N 52.3W 90 KT 72HR VT 20/0000Z 24.1N 55.0W 90 KT 96HR VT 21/0000Z 26.0N 57.0W 85 KT 120HR VT 22/0000Z 29.0N 58.5W 80 KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPZ33 KNHC 170302 *** TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 800 PM PDT SAT SEP 16 2006 ...HURRICANE LANE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING...AND MUD SLIDES STILL A THREAT... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN NORTHWARD TO ALTATA. THE HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED SUNDAY MORNING. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LANE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.4 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES ...50 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CULIACAN MEXICO...AND ABOUT 150 MILES...240 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO. LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LANE IS A WEAKENING CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS LANE MOVES FURTHER INLAND. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.02 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. TIDE LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ON SUNDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...25.0 N...107.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART ** WTPZ43 KNHC 170303 *** TCDEP3 HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 800 PM PDT SAT SEP 16 2006 RUGGED TERRAIN AND INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAVE NEGATIVELY AFFECTED THE SURFACE CIRCULATION OF LANE. SHORTWAVE INFRARED AND EARLIER VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTED THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL MOUNTAINS...SEPARATING FROM THE POORLY DEFINED SURFACE CENTER. DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE'S STRUCTURE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 75 KT. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS LANE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER HIGH TERRAIN...WITH DISSIPATION OCCURRING DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 350/7. THE SURFACE CENTER SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERALLY NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...WITHIN THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW THE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BASICALLY PARALLELING THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL RANGE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0300Z 25.0N 107.4W 75 KT 12HR VT 17/1200Z 25.8N 107.6W 50 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 18/0000Z 26.7N 108.0W 35 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 18/1200Z 27.5N 108.7W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING 48HR VT 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART ** WTPN32 PGTW 170300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/170152SEP2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161721Z SEP 06// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 170000Z --- NEAR 20.6N 157.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 157.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 21.0N 158.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 20.4N 159.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 19.6N 159.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 18.4N 159.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 16.9N 157.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 170300Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 157.3E. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 161721Z SEP 06 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 161730) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 14W (SHANSHAN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPZ44 KNHC 170311 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142006 800 PM PDT SAT SEP 16 2006 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONTINUED AND DEEPENING CONVECTION SOUTH OF TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM...SLOWLY SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION... AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 AND 35 KT RESPECTIVELY. AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES. WHILE TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM HAS TAKEN A MORE NORTHWARD JOG...CURRENT MOTION IS 020/2. THE STORM IS STILL DRIFTING IN A GENERALLY NORTHEAST DIRECTION...CONSISTENT WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE CENTER THAT IS PART OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH CONTAINING BOTH TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM AND HURRICANE LANE. THE TRACK FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AND MORE CLOSELY FOLLOWS MODEL CONSENSUS GIVEN THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE GUIDANCE. NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN SIGNIFICANT SURFACE WINDS IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND EVEN THE GFDL MODEL...INITIALIZED WITH THE STRONGEST CYCLONE OF ALL THE MODELS...FORECASTS ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES LITTLE OR NO INTENSIFICATION AND THEN DISSIPATION IN 3-4 DAYS. THE DOMINANT NEGATIVE INTENSITY FACTOR IS INTRUSION OF DRY STABLE MARITIME AIR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0300Z 18.4N 114.4W 40 KT 12HR VT 17/1200Z 18.8N 114.0W 40 KT 24HR VT 18/0000Z 19.5N 113.3W 40 KT 36HR VT 18/1200Z 20.6N 113.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 19/0000Z 21.6N 113.1W 40 KT 72HR VT 20/0000Z 23.1N 113.7W 35 KT 96HR VT 21/0000Z 24.5N 114.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 22/0000Z 26.0N 115.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER FIORINO/STEWART ** WTNT32 KNHC 170317 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 25...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 16 2006 CORRECTED HEADER ...GORDON BARELY A HURRICANE AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC OCEAN... AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.9 WEST OR ABOUT 640 MILES... 1025 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA. GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND GORDON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...32.0 N...53.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTCA42 TJSJ 170319 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN GORDON ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 25...CORREGIDO NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 PM AST SABADO 16 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...GORDON POBREMENTE COMO HURACAN A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL NORTE SOBRE MAR ABIERTO DEL ATLANTICO... A LAS 1100 PM AST...0300Z..EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN GORDON ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 32.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 53.9 OESTE O COMO A 640 MILLAS...1025 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE BERMUDA. GORDON SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 3 MPH...6 KM/HR. SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CON AUMENTO GRADUAL EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 75 MPH CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA UN DEBILITAMIENTO LENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y SE ESPERA QUE SE CONVIERTA EN TORMENTA TROPICAL EL DOMINGO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 25 MILLAS...35 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KM. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 987 MILIBARAS...29.15 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 PM AST...32.0 NORTE...53.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 3 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...75 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...987 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR STEWART ** WTPQ20 BABJ 170300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 170300 UTC 00HR 31.3N 128.5E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR NNE 40KM/H= ** WTPQ32 PGUM 170335 *** TCPPQ2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 2 PM GUAM LST SUN SEP 17 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W NEWLY FORMED NORTHEAST OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 157.3 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 765 MILES EAST OF AGRIHAN 770 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF PAGAN 850 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND 965 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 8 MPH. IT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT CONTINUES ON A SLOW COUNTER-CLOCKWISE LOOP. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...20.7 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 157.3 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 8 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 PM GUAM LST. $$ ZIOBRO ** WTPN31 PHNC 170400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/162135SEP2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 13E (LANE) WARNING NR 015 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 170000Z --- NEAR 24.7N 107.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.7N 107.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 25.8N 107.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 26.7N 108.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 27.5N 108.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 170400Z POSITION NEAR 25.1N 107.5W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171000Z, 171600Z, 172200Z AND 180400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14E (MIRIAM) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 170400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/170330SEP2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 14E (MIRIAM) WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 170000Z --- NEAR 18.2N 114.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.4N 114.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 18.8N 114.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 19.5N 113.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 20.6N 113.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 21.6N 113.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 23.1N 113.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 24.5N 114.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 26.0N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 170400Z POSITION NEAR 18.5N 114.3W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 14 FEET. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 417 NM SW OF LA PAZ. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171000Z, 171600Z, 172200Z AND 180400Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 13E (LANE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 170300 *** WARNING 170300. WARNING VALID 180300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 945 HPA AT 31.3N 128.6E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 20 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 171500UTC AT 34.6N 131.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 180300UTC AT 37.8N 133.2E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 170300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 170300UTC 31.3N 128.6E GOOD MOVE NNE 20KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST 30KT 200NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 180300UTC 37.8N 133.2E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 18KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 45HF 190000UTC 40.4N 135.1E 170NM 70% MOVE NNE 08KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 69HF 200000UTC 42.3N 138.1E 290NM 70% MOVE NE 06KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 170300 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 17 NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN ANALYSIS POSITION 170300UTC 31.3N 128.6E MOVEMENT NNE 21KT PRES/VMAX 940HPA 87KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 171500UTC 34.3N 130.1E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 950HPA 80KT 24HR POSITION 180300UTC 37.1N 131.6E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT 48HR POSITION 190300UTC 40.6N 134.2E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT 72HR POSITION 200300UTC 43.5N 137.5E WITHIN 270NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 58KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ21 RJTD 170300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 170300UTC 20.7N 156.9E FAIR MOVE W 08KT PRES 1004HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 180300UTC 21.6N 157.3E 150NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTNT80 EGRR 170510 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 17.09.2006 HURRICANE GORDON ANALYSED POSITION : 31.8N 53.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 17.09.2006 31.8N 53.9W MODERATE 12UTC 17.09.2006 33.2N 53.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2006 34.6N 51.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2006 37.5N 48.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2006 39.2N 43.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2006 EXTRA-TROPICAL HURRICANE HELENE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.6N 46.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 17.09.2006 19.6N 46.9W MODERATE 12UTC 17.09.2006 20.4N 48.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2006 21.3N 49.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.09.2006 22.2N 51.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.09.2006 23.0N 52.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2006 23.4N 53.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2006 23.8N 55.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.09.2006 24.2N 56.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.09.2006 25.3N 57.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 21.09.2006 26.7N 58.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2006 27.9N 58.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2006 28.7N 58.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2006 29.4N 59.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY HURRICANE LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.2N 107.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 17.09.2006 24.2N 107.3W MODERATE 12UTC 17.09.2006 24.9N 107.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 18.09.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM ANALYSED POSITION : 18.3N 113.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 17.09.2006 18.3N 113.9W WEAK 12UTC 17.09.2006 18.9N 114.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2006 19.5N 114.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.09.2006 20.1N 115.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.09.2006 21.1N 116.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2006 22.0N 117.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 170510 ** WTPZ33 KNHC 170558 *** TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE LANE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 1100 PM PDT SAT SEP 16 2006 ...LANE WEAKENING INLAND BUT PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL... ...FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES POSSIBLE... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN NORTHWARD TO ALTATA. THE HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED SUNDAY MORNING. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM PDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LANE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.5 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES ...55 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CULIACAN MEXICO...AND ABOUT 160 MILES...260 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO. LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LANE IS A WEAKENING CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS LANE MOVES FARTHER INLAND...AND LANE WILL LIKELY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM IN A FEW HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA REMAINS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. WATER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ON SUNDAY MORNING. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM PDT POSITION...25.3 N...107.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER KNABB