** WTPQ20 BABJ 161800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 161800 UTC 00HR 28.5N 126.8E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NNE 30KM/H P+24HR 35.2N 131.3E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 41.8N 136.9E 985HPA 25M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 161800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 161800UTC 28.6N 127.1E GOOD MOVE NNE 18KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 50KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST 30KT 220NM FORECAST 24HF 171800UTC 35.4N 132.3E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 21KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 181800UTC 39.2N 134.7E 170NM 70% MOVE NNE 10KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 72HF 191800UTC 41.1N 137.4E 290NM 70% MOVE NE 07KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 161800 *** WARNING 161800. WARNING VALID 171800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 930 HPA AT 28.6N 127.1E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 18 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 31.9N 129.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 35.4N 132.3E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 39.2N 134.7E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 41.1N 137.4E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 161800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 15 NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN ANALYSIS POSITION 161800UTC 28.5N 127.1E MOVEMENT NE 18KT PRES/VMAX 930HPA 95KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 171800UTC 35.3N 130.6E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT 48HR POSITION 181800UTC 39.4N 134.3E WITHIN 245NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT 72HR POSITION 191800UTC 41.6N 136.5E WITHIN 270NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPZ63 KNHC 161927 *** TCUEP3 HURRICANE LANE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 1225 PM PDT SAT SEP 16 2006 THE EYE OF LANE MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AT 1215 PDT...1915 UTC...IN THE STATE OF SINALOA ABOUT 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF EL DORADO. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPQ20 BABJ 161900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 161900 UTC 00HR 28.7N 127.1E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NE 30KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 162000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 162000 UTC 00HR 29.0N 127.3E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NNE 30KM/H= ** WTNT42 KNHC 162033 *** TCDAT2 HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 500 PM EDT SAT SEP 16 2006 GORDON HAS MAINTAINED A RAGGED EYE FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES REMAIN AT 65 KT AS DOES THE INITIAL INTENSITY. BOTH THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAVE BACKED OFF ON WEAKENING GORDON IN THE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION...THE CYCLONE REMAINING OVER WARM WATERS LONGER...AND LOWER SHEAR THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HOLDS A STEADY INTENSITY OF 65 KT UNTIL GORDON REACHES WATERS BELOW 26C DEGREES AND INCREASING SHEAR. AT THAT TIME...SLOW WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR UNTIL THE CYCLONE IS ABSORBED BY A FRONT IN 4 DAYS. IT APPEARS THAT GORDON'S FORWARD MOTION HAS FINALLY RESUMED AND IS ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 340/3. A GENERAL SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN AND ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST AS A RESULT OF AN APPROACHING DEEP- LAYER TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THE TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PRIMARILY DUE TO THE INITIAL NORTHWARD MOTION...AND IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS...UKMET...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. EVEN THOUGH SOME OF THE MODEL TRACKERS MAINTAIN GORDON THROUGH 120 HOURS...ANALYSIS OF THE MODEL FIELDS INDICATE AN OVERALL CONSENSUS IN THE CYCLONE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL IN 3 DAYS AND ABSORBED BY A FRONT IN FOUR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/2100Z 31.7N 54.0W 65 KT 12HR VT 17/0600Z 32.6N 53.6W 65 KT 24HR VT 17/1800Z 34.3N 52.3W 65 KT 36HR VT 18/0600Z 36.6N 49.6W 60 KT 48HR VT 18/1800Z 38.6N 44.6W 55 KT 72HR VT 19/1800Z 39.5N 32.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 20/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN ** WTNT22 KNHC 162033 *** TCMAT2 HURRICANE GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 2100 UTC SAT SEP 16 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 54.0W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..160NE 160SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 54.0W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 53.9W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 32.6N 53.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 34.3N 52.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 36.6N 49.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 38.6N 44.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 39.5N 32.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 80SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.7N 54.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN ** WTPZ24 KNHC 162034 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142006 2100 UTC SAT SEP 16 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 114.3W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 114.3W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 114.5W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.7N 113.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.7N 113.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 90SE 90SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 20.9N 112.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 90SE 90SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 22.1N 112.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 90SE 90SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 23.5N 114.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 90SE 90SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 25.5N 115.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 27.5N 115.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 114.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTNT32 KNHC 162034 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 500 PM AST SAT SEP 16 2006 ...HURRICANE GORDON DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC... AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.0 WEST OR ABOUT 635 MILES... 1020 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA. GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR... AND A GENERAL SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HURRICANE GORDON REMAINS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...31.7 N...54.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN ** WTPZ33 KNHC 162034 *** TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 200 PM PDT SAT SEP 16 2006 ...EYE OF LANE MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM EL ROBLITO TO TOPOLOBAMPO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF TOPOLOBAMPO TO HUATABAMPITO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LANE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.2 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES...50 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CULIACAN MEXICO...AND ABOUT 95 MILES...155 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO. LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF LANE FARTHER INLAND OVER WESTERN MEXICO TONIGHT. AT 1215 PTD...1915 UTC...THE CENTER OF LANE MADE LANDFALL ABOUT 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OF EL DORADO MEXICO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LANE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE CENTER OF LANE MOVES FARTHER INLAND. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LANE. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...24.4 N...107.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPZ43 KNHC 162035 *** TCDEP3 HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 200 PM PDT SAT SEP 16 2006 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REACHED THE EYE OF LANE JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 955 MB...ALONG WITH MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 110 KT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN EYEWALL. AN EYEWALL DROPSONDE IN THE SOUTH EYEWALL JUST AFTER LANDFALL MEASURED A SURFACE WIND OF 108 KT...ALTHOUGH THE REDUCTIONS FOR THE LOWEST LAYERS OF THE DROP ARE NOT AVAILABLE. THESE DATA INDICATE THAT LANE MADE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE HURRICANE IS NOW WEAKENING OVER LAND...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 105 KT. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS LANE MOVES FARTHER INLAND...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO IN 48-72 HR. THE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL 350/9. LANE IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...AND IS MOVING TOWARD A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. IF OVER WATER...THIS WOULD PROBABLY RECURVE LANE TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDN MODEL. HOWEVER...THE LOWER- AND UPPER- LEVEL CIRCULATIONS OF LANE ARE LIKELY TO DE-COUPLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DISSIPATING AND THE UPPER CIRCULATION TURNING EASTWARD. THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A CONTINUED NORTHWARD MOTION BEFORE DISSIPATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/2100Z 24.4N 107.2W 105 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 17/0600Z 25.6N 107.4W 65 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 17/1800Z 26.8N 107.6W 40 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 18/0600Z 27.8N 107.7W 25 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 18/1800Z 28.8N 107.8W 20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING 72HR VT 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPZ23 KNHC 162035 *** TCMEP3 HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 2100 UTC SAT SEP 16 2006 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM EL ROBLITO TO TOPOLOBAMPO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF TOPOLOBAMPO TO HUATABAMPITO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 107.2W AT 16/2100Z...INLAND POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 45NE 45SE 45SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 100SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 120SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 107.2W AT 16/2100Z...INLAND AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 107.2W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 25.6N 107.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 26.8N 107.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 27.8N 107.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 28.8N 107.8W...INLAND DISSIPATING MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 107.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTCA42 TJSJ 162041 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN GORDON ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 24 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL072006 500 PM AST SABADO 16 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...HURACAN GORDON MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE SOBRE MAR ABIERTO DEL ATLANTICO... A LAS 500 PM AST...2100Z..EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN GORDON ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 31.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 54.0 OESTE O COMO A 635 MILLAS...1020 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE BERMUDA. GORDON SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 3 MPH...6 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO LENTO HACIA EL NORTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 75 MPH CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. EL HURACAN GORDON PERMANECE COMO CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 25 MILLAS...35 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KM. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 987 MILIBARAS...29.15 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 PM AST...31.7 NORTE...54.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 3 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...75 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...987 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR MAINELLI/BEVEN ** WTPZ44 KNHC 162042 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142006 200 PM PDT SAT SEP 16 2006 SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE DAY INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E HAS A PARTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION. WHILE THE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE AGAIN 35 KT AT 18Z. ON THIS BASIS...THE CYCLONE IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WITH 35 KT WINDS. THE MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATED STATION ON CLARION ISLAND...OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN CONVECTION...HAS BEEN REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KT WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 KT DURING THE DAY WITH PRESSURES OF 1005-1006 MB. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A HIGLY UNCERTAIN 040/3. THE DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR AS IT IS CAUGHT IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FEEDING INTO HURRICANE LANE. AFTER THAT...LANE SHOULD BE DISSIPATING OVER MEXICO...AND ENOUGH RIDGING SHOULD DEVELOP NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE TO TURN IT TO A NORTHWESTERLY TRACK. THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS AN INCREASED CHANCE THAT AFTER 96 HR THE SYSTEM COULD TURN NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...SO A NORTHWARD TURN IS NOW INDICATED AT THAT TIME. A COMBINATION OF NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...STABLE INFLOW...AND GRADUALLY COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL LIKELY KEEP MIRIAM FROM STRENGTHENING VERY MUCH. THE INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR A LITTLE STRENGTHENING NEAR 48 HR WHEN THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT. AFTER THAT...THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATERS AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 120 HR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/2100Z 18.2N 114.3W 35 KT 12HR VT 17/0600Z 18.7N 113.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 17/1800Z 19.7N 113.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 18/0600Z 20.9N 112.5W 35 KT 48HR VT 18/1800Z 22.1N 112.9W 40 KT 72HR VT 19/1800Z 23.5N 114.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 20/1800Z 25.5N 115.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 21/1800Z 27.5N 115.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPN31 PGTW 162100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/1721SEP2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 028 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 161800Z --- NEAR 28.6N 127.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 18 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 28.6N 127.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 31.6N 129.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 21 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 35.3N 131.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 28 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 39.8N 135.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 162100Z POSITION NEAR 29.4N 127.7E. TYPHOON (TY) 14W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW) FOR UPDATES.// ** WTPZ24 KNHC 162043 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142006 2100 UTC SAT SEP 16 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 114.3W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 114.3W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 114.5W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.7N 113.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.7N 113.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 90SE 90SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 20.9N 112.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 90SE 90SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 22.1N 112.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 90SE 90SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 23.5N 114.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 90SE 90SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 25.5N 115.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 27.5N 115.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 114.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTNT43 KNHC 162049 *** TCDAT3 HURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 500 PM EDT SAT SEP 16 2006 DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE NOT CHANGED AND A RAGGED EYE HAS BEEN OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VISIBLE IMAGERY. CIMSS EXPERIMENTAL ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ALSO SUGGESTS MINIMAL HURRICANE INTENSITY. THUS...A 65 KT INITIAL INTENSITY IS RETAINED. TODAY...A NOAA SALEX...SAHARAN AIR LAYER EXPERIMENT...MISSION ON THE G-IV AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN TAKING OBSERVATIONS IN THE PERIPHERY OF HELENE. WHILE THESE DROPWINDSONDES ARE SHOWING SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR...CIRA PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSES SUGGEST THAT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS FOUND IN THE SYSTEM'S INNER CORE. BECAUSE OF 27.5 C SSTS...LIGHT/MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR...AND A MOIST ENVIRONMENT... CONTINUED SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED. AFTER TWO DAYS... BOTH THE SHEAR AND SSTS INCREASE. BECAUSE OF THESE CONFLICTING ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS...HELENE IS PROJECTED TO PEAK IN INTENSITY NEAR 85 KT AT DAYS 2 AND 3 WITH SLIGHT WEAKENING THEREAFTER. IT IS NOTED THAT THE GFDL MODEL FIELDS RETAIN WEAKER SHEAR INTO LONGER LEAD TIMES THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE STANDARD SHIPS MODEL DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF AN ENHANCING MICROWAVE PREDICTOR IN THE EXPERIMENTAL SHIPS-MICROWAVE MODEL AND IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION. CURRENT MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 310/11. HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD A BREAK IN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. AFTER DAY 2...THERE IS A LARGE MODEL DIVERGENCE IN THE TRACK OF HELENE. THE GFDL AND UK QUICKLY ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING OFF OF THE US ATLANTIC SEABOARD. IN CONTRAST...THE GFS...THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND THE ECMWF MODELS TURN HELENE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND DO NOT HAVE IT PICKED UP BY THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS...AS WELL AS CONSENSUS APPROACHES...SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE. AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW WHICH GROUP WILL BE CORRECT...THE TRACK FORECAST DEPICTED HERE IS CLOSE TO THE CONU CONSENSUS AND IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. PERHAPS WITH THE MODEL ASSIMILATION OF THE SALEX DROPWINDSONDES... THE LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL BE REDUCED IN THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/2100Z 19.3N 46.3W 65 KT 12HR VT 17/0600Z 20.0N 47.4W 70 KT 24HR VT 17/1800Z 20.9N 48.7W 80 KT 36HR VT 18/0600Z 21.8N 49.8W 85 KT 48HR VT 18/1800Z 22.6N 51.0W 85 KT 72HR VT 19/1800Z 24.0N 53.5W 85 KT 96HR VT 20/1800Z 26.0N 56.0W 80 KT 120HR VT 21/1800Z 29.0N 57.5W 75 KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN/LANDSEA ** WTNT23 KNHC 162050 *** TCMAT3 HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 2100 UTC SAT SEP 16 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 46.3W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB EYE DIAMETER 45 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 25SW 40NW. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 100SW 125NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 180SE 180SW 225NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 46.3W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 45.9W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 20.0N 47.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.9N 48.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.8N 49.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...175NE 150SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 22.6N 51.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...175NE 150SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 24.0N 53.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...200NE 175SE 125SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 26.0N 56.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 29.0N 57.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 46.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN/LANDSEA ** WTNT33 KNHC 162052 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 500 PM AST SAT SEP 16 2006 ...HELENE CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY... AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1100 MILES ...1775 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...19.3 N...46.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN/LANDSEA ** WTCA43 TJSJ 162057 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN HELENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 18 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL082006 500 PM AST SABADO 16 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...HELENE CONTINUA MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL NOROESTE SIN CAMBIO EN LA INTENSIDAD... A LAS 500 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN HELENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 19.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 46.3 OESTE O COMO A 1100 MILLAS...1775 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE. HELENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH... 20 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 75 MPH...120 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA UNAS 30 MILLAS...45 KILOMETROS..DESDE EL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 175 MILLAS...280 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 987 MILIBARAS...29.15 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 PM AST...19.3 NORTE...46.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...75 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...987 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN/LANDSEA ** WTPQ20 BABJ 162100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 162100 UTC 00HR 29.4N 127.4E 955HPA 45M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NNE 35KM/H P+24HR 36.3N 131.8E 965HPA 40M/S P+48HR 42.8N 136.3E 985HPA 25M/S= ** WTJP31 RJTD 162100 *** WARNING 162100. WARNING VALID 172100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 935 HPA AT 29.4N 127.6E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 19 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 170900UTC AT 32.9N 130.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 172100UTC AT 36.3N 132.6E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 162100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 162100UTC 29.4N 127.6E GOOD MOVE NNE 19KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 50KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST 30KT 200NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 172100UTC 36.3N 132.6E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 19KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 181800UTC 39.2N 134.7E 170NM 70% MOVE NNE 10KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 69HF 191800UTC 41.1N 137.4E 290NM 70% MOVE NE 07KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTPN31 PGTW 162200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/162135SEP2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 13E (LANE) WARNING NR 013 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 161800Z --- NEAR 24.4N 107.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.4N 107.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 25.6N 107.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 26.8N 107.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 27.8N 107.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 28.8N 107.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 162200Z POSITION NEAR 24.8N 107.3W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 8 FEET. AT 161800Z HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED 84 NM NNW OF MAZATLAN. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170400Z, 171000Z, 171600Z AND 172200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E (MIRIAM) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 162200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/162135SEP2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 13E (LANE) WARNING NR 013 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 161800Z --- NEAR 24.4N 107.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.4N 107.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 25.6N 107.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 26.8N 107.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 27.8N 107.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 28.8N 107.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 162200Z POSITION NEAR 24.8N 107.3W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 8 FEET. AT 161800Z HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED 84 NM NNW OF MAZATLAN. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170400Z, 171000Z, 171600Z AND 172200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E (MIRIAM) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 162200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/162130SEP2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 14E WARNING NR 003 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 161800Z --- NEAR 18.2N 114.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 114.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 18.7N 113.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 19.7N 113.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 20.9N 112.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 22.1N 112.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 23.5N 114.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 25.5N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 27.5N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 162200Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 114.1W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 14 FEET. AT 161800Z TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 424 NM SSW OF LA PAZ. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170400Z, 171000Z, 171600Z AND 172200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13E (LANE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPZ33 KNHC 162351 *** TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE LANE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 500 PM PDT SAT SEP 16 2006 ...HURRICANE LANE WEAKENING OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF SINALOA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING...AND MUD SLIDES STILL A THREAT... AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ADJUSTED THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO...FROM MAZATLAN NORTHWARD TO ALTATA. AT 500 PM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL OTHER COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LANE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.2 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES...50 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CULIACAN MEXICO...AND ABOUT 110 MILES...180 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO. LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS MOTION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE CENTER OF LANE FARTHER INLAND OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...145 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LANE HAS WEAKENED TO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS LANE MOVES FURTHER INLAND. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LANE. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...24.7 N...107.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART