** WTSR20 WSSS 160600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 161200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 161200 UTC 00HR 27.1N 125.8E 935HPA 50M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NE 25KM/H P+24HR 33.1N 129.3E 955HPA 40M/S P+48HR 41.2N 135.4E 980HPA 25M/S= ** WTPN32 PHNC 161000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 160600Z --- NEAR 17.1N 114.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 114.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 17.9N 114.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 18.9N 113.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 19.8N 112.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 20.8N 112.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 22.5N 113.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 24.0N 114.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 26.0N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 161000Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 114.3W. THIS IS A SPECIAL ADVISORY ISSUED AT 0900Z. ALL SUBSEQUENT WARNINGS WILL OCCUR AT STANDARD SYNOPTIC TIMES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 14 FEET. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED 463 NM SSW OF LA PAZ. NEXT WARN- INGS AT 161600Z, 162200Z, 170400Z AND 171000Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 13E (LANE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC 161000) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTJP21 RJTD 161200 *** WARNING 161200. WARNING VALID 171200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 925 HPA AT 27.1N 125.9E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHEAST 14 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 30.0N 128.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 33.6N 130.5E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 38.7N 133.5E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 41.2N 135.8E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 161200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 161200UTC 27.1N 125.9E GOOD MOVE NE 14KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 100KT 50KT 90NM 30KT 240NM FORECAST 24HF 171200UTC 33.6N 130.5E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 20KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 181200UTC 38.7N 133.5E 170NM 70% MOVE NNE 14KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 72HF 191200UTC 41.2N 135.8E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 07KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 161200 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 14 NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN ANALYSIS POSITION 161200UTC 27.1N 125.9E MOVEMENT NE 15KT PRES/VMAX 925HPA 101KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 171200UTC 33.1N 128.9E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 945HPA 84KT 48HR POSITION 181200UTC 38.5N 132.8E WITHIN 190NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT 72HR POSITION 191200UTC 41.1N 134.3E WITHIN 270NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 161300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 161300 UTC 00HR 27.2N 125.9E 935HPA 50M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NE 25KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 161400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 161400 UTC 00HR 27.4N 126.1E 935HPA 50M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NE 25KM/H= ** WTPN31 PGTW 161500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 027 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 161200Z --- NEAR 27.1N 125.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 27.1N 125.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 30.1N 127.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 33.4N 129.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 36.9N 133.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 23 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 40.4N 137.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 161500Z POSITION NEAR 27.9N 126.3E. TYPHOON (TY) 14W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z.// ** WTPZ23 KNHC 161433 *** TCMEP3 HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 1500 UTC SAT SEP 16 2006 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM EL ROBLITO TO TOPOLOBAMPO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SAN EVARISTO TO CABO SAN LUCAS. THE HURRICANE WARNING AND THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR THE MEXICAN COAST SOUTH OF EL ROBLITO...AND FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT ALON THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF TOPOLOBAMPO TO HUATABAMPITO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 107.1W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 45NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 120SE 120SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 107.1W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 107.1W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 24.8N 107.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 25.9N 107.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 75SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 26.8N 107.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 27.8N 108.2W...INLAND DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 107.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTNT32 KNHC 161437 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 AM AST SAT SEP 16 2006 ...GORDON NEARLY STATIONARY AND STILL A HURRICANE... AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.7 WEST OR ABOUT 655 MILES... 1055 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA. GORDON IS NEARLY STATIONARY...BUT A SLOW NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEAST MOTION COULD BEGIN AT ANY TIME AND THEN CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...31.3 N...53.7 W. MOVEMENT... STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN ** WTNT22 KNHC 161437 *** TCMAT2 HURRICANE GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1500 UTC SAT SEP 16 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 53.7W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..160NE 160SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 53.7W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 53.8W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 32.1N 53.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 33.6N 52.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 35.5N 50.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 37.6N 46.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 39.5N 36.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 80SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.3N 53.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN ** WTNT42 KNHC 161444 *** TCDAT2 HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 16 2006 GORDON HAS MAINTAINED A STEADY STATE THIS MORNING AND LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT IT DID 6 HOURS AGO. A RAGGED EYE REMAINS PRESENT AND SURROUNDING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE BETWEEN -50 AND -65 DEGREES CELSIUS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.0...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 65 KT. GORDON SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE 26C ISOTHERM WITHIN 1 TO 2 DAYS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM...THEN THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO HOLD STEADY DURING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THIS SOLUTION IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. GORDON HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY...BUT A SLIGHT HINT OF A SLOW NORTH-NORTHEAST MOTION HAS BEEN SEEN DURING THE PAST HOUR OR TWO. IN 24 HOURS OR SO...THE WEAKENED RIDGE WHICH HAS HELPED INHIBIT GORDON'S FORWARD MOTION SHOULD BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE...AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH SHOULD BE APPROACHING GORDON FROM THE WEST. THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD. BY 72 HOURS...GORDON SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL... AND THEN ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 4 DAYS. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE ONLY OUTLIER IS THE NOGAPS MODEL WHICH MAINTAINS GORDON AS A SINGLE ENTITY MOVING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STAYS WITH THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND IS A BIT SLOWER AND TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED UPON A 0856 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/1500Z 31.3N 53.7W 65 KT 12HR VT 17/0000Z 32.1N 53.5W 60 KT 24HR VT 17/1200Z 33.6N 52.6W 60 KT 36HR VT 18/0000Z 35.5N 50.5W 55 KT 48HR VT 18/1200Z 37.6N 46.6W 55 KT 72HR VT 19/1200Z 39.5N 36.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 20/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN ** WTPZ33 KNHC 161444 *** TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 800 AM PDT SAT SEP 16 2006 ...DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE LANE APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM EL ROBLITO TO TOPOLOBAMPO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SAN EVARISTO TO CABO SAN LUCAS. THE HURRICANE WARNING AND THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR THE MEXICAN COAST SOUTH OF EL ROBLITO...AND FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF TOPOLOBAMPO TO HUATABAMPITO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LANE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.1 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES... 80 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO AND ABOUT 200 MILES...320 KM...SOUTHEAST OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO. LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF LANE ACROSS THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LANE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL... FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AFTER LANDFALL. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE LANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LANE. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...23.5 N...107.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPZ44 KNHC 161445 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142006 800 AM PDT SAT SEP 16 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14-E REMAINS A SHEARED SYSTEM THIS MORNING... WITH THE MAIN CONVECTION CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. HOWEVER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT UNTIL VISIBLE IMAGES PROVIDE A BETTER IDEA OF WHERE THE CENTER IS IN RELATION TO THE CONVECTION. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1003 MB IS BASED ON DATA FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATED STATION ON CLARION ISLAND. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 045/3. THE DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR AS IT IS CAUGHT IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FEEDING INTO HURRICANE LANE. AFTER THAT...LANE SHOULD BE WEAKENING OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND ENOUGH RIDGING SHOULD DEVELOP NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE TO TURN IT TO A NORTHWESTERLY TRACK. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT AFTER 96 HR THE SYSTEM COULD TURN NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...BUT THAT DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH OF THE SYSTEM IS LEFT OVER COLDER WATERS AND WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST TRACK AT THIS TIME. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST 24-36 HR AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CAUSED BY OUTFLOW FROM LANE INHIBITS DEVELOPMENT. THE SHEAR COULD DECREASE BY 60 HR...BUT THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT THAT TIME. BY 120 HR...THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE A REMNANT LOW OVER 24C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/1500Z 17.8N 114.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 17/0000Z 18.3N 113.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 17/1200Z 19.3N 112.7W 40 KT 36HR VT 18/0000Z 20.4N 112.3W 45 KT 48HR VT 18/1200Z 21.2N 112.5W 45 KT 72HR VT 19/1200Z 23.0N 114.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 20/1200Z 24.5N 115.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 21/1200Z 27.0N 116.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN/MAINELLI ** WTPZ24 KNHC 161445 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142006 1500 UTC SAT SEP 16 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 114.2W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 114.2W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 114.4W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.3N 113.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 60SE 90SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.3N 112.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 60SE 90SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 20.4N 112.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 75SE 100SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.2N 112.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 75SE 100SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 23.0N 114.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 60SE 90SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 24.5N 115.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 27.0N 116.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 114.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN/MAINELLI ** WTNT43 KNHC 161447 *** TCDAT3 HURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 16 2006 GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING ORGANIZATION OF HELENE WITH ROBUST BANDING CONVECTION ON THE NORTH AND WEST QUADRANTS...AND A RAGGED EYE ATTEMPTING TO FORM AS SEEN IN THE VISIBLE IMAGERY. MOREOVER...SSMI AND AMSU PASSES SHOW A NEARLY COMPLETE EYEWALL. BASED UPON CONSENSUS OF DVORAK ESTIMATES...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A 65 KT HURRICANE. WHILE A SAHARAN AIR-LAYER IS SEEN TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF HELENE IN CIMSS IMAGERY...TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSES FROM CIRA SUGGEST THAT THE DRY AIR REMAINS AT LEAST A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES FROM THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. CONTINUED SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS SUGGESTED OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS DUE TO 27.5 C SSTS...LIGHT/MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR...AND A MOIST ENVIRONMENT. AT DAYS 4 AND 5...THE SSTS WARM UP...BUT SHEAR INCREASES MAY MITIGATE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. A PLATEAUING OF THE INTENSITY IS CALLED FOR AROUND 72 HRS WITH SLIGHT WEAKENING THEREAFTER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE...AND GFDL MODELS...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED AT THE LONG-LEADS. CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/12. HELENE IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE AND IS HEADED TOWARD A BREAK IN THE RIDGE... WHICH IS PARTIALLY BEING PRODUCED BY HURRICANE GORDON. ALL RELIABLE GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH A CONTINUED MOVEMENT ALONG THIS HEADING THROUGH 72 HR. AT DAYS 4 AND 5...THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIVERGENCE WITH THE UK...GFDL...ECMWF BEING FASTER AND OFF TO THE NORTH AND THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE SLOWER AND OFF TO THE SOUTH. THESE DIFFERENCES ARE BEING DRIVEN BY THE AMPLITUDE OF THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE PUSHING OFF OF THE US EAST COAST AT THAT TIME. THE NOGAPS AND CONSENSUS MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN THESE POSSIBILITIES. THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION. A G-IV AIRCRAFT RESEARCH MISSION IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO SAMPLE HELENE'S ENVIRONMENT AS PART OF NOAA'S SALEX EXPERIMENT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/1500Z 18.8N 45.6W 65 KT 12HR VT 17/0000Z 19.5N 46.9W 70 KT 24HR VT 17/1200Z 20.4N 48.3W 75 KT 36HR VT 18/0000Z 21.1N 49.4W 80 KT 48HR VT 18/1200Z 21.9N 50.6W 85 KT 72HR VT 19/1200Z 23.5N 53.5W 90 KT 96HR VT 20/1200Z 25.5N 56.5W 85 KT 120HR VT 21/1200Z 28.5N 58.0W 80 KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN/LANDSEA ** WTNT23 KNHC 161449 *** TCMAT3 HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1500 UTC SAT SEP 16 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 45.6W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB EYE DIAMETER 45 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 25SW 40NW. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 100SW 125NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 180SE 180SW 225NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 45.6W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 45.2W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.5N 46.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.4N 48.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 21.1N 49.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...175NE 150SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.9N 50.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...175NE 150SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 23.5N 53.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...200NE 175SE 125SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 25.5N 56.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 28.5N 58.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 45.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN/LANDSEA ** WTNT33 KNHC 161453 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 AM AST SAT SEP 16 2006 ...HELENE BECOMES THE FOURTH HURRICANE OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON... AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.6 WEST OR ABOUT 1145 MILES ...1845 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HELENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...18.8 N...45.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN/LANDSEA ** WTPZ43 KNHC 161501 *** TCDEP3 HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 800 AM PDT SAT SEP 16 2006 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE MEXICAN RADARS AT LOS CABOS AND GUASAVE SHOW THAT LANE HAS AN EYE ABOUT 8-10 N MI WIDE. ON SATELLITE...THE EYE IS EMBEDDED IN CLOUD TOPS OF -70 TO -80C AND HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 115 KT FROM SAB...AND 102 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 110 KT BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES AND THE INCREASED EYE DEFINTION SINCE 12Z. THE LOS CABOS RADAR SUGGESTS THAT LANE IS ABOUT TO START AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...SUGGESTING THAT THE HURRICANE IS CLOSE TO PEAKING IN INTENSITY EVEN IF IT REMAINS OVER WATER LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXCIO AFTER LANDFALL...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 72 HR. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/9. LANE IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...AND IS MOVING TOWARD A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. IF OVER WATER...THIS WOULD PROBABLY RECURVE LANE TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDN MODEL. HOWEVER...THE LOWER- AND UPPER- LEVEL CIRCULATIONS OF LANE ARE LIKELY TO DE-COUPLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DISSIPATING AND THE UPPER CIRCULATION TURNING EASTWARD. THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION BEFORE DISSIPATION ALONG AND WEST OF THE MAIN MOUNTAIN RANGES OF WESTERN MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/1500Z 23.5N 107.1W 110 KT 12HR VT 17/0000Z 24.8N 107.4W 90 KT 24HR VT 17/1200Z 25.9N 107.6W 60 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 18/0000Z 26.8N 107.9W 35 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 18/1200Z 27.8N 108.2W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING 72HR VT 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPZ23 KNHC 161502 *** TCMEP3 HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 1500 UTC SAT SEP 16 2006 ...CORRECTED TO ADD DISSIPATED AT 72 HR... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM EL ROBLITO TO TOPOLOBAMPO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SAN EVARISTO TO CABO SAN LUCAS. THE HURRICANE WARNING AND THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR THE MEXICAN COAST SOUTH OF EL ROBLITO...AND FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF TOPOLOBAMPO TO HUATABAMPITO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 107.1W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 45NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 120SE 120SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 107.1W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 107.1W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 24.8N 107.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 25.9N 107.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 75SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 26.8N 107.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 27.8N 108.2W...INLAND DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 107.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPQ20 BABJ 161500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 161500 UTC 00HR 27.7N 126.3E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NE 25KM/H= ** WTPN31 PHNC 161600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 13E (LANE) WARNING NR 012 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 161200Z --- NEAR 23.5N 107.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.5N 107.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 24.8N 107.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 25.9N 107.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 26.8N 107.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 27.8N 108.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 161600Z POSITION NEAR 23.9N 107.2W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 30 FEET. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED 43 NM WNW OF MAZATLAN. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162200Z, 170400Z, 171000Z AND 171600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPZ43 KNHC 161538 *** TCDEP3 HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 800 AM PDT SAT SEP 16 2006 ...CORRECTED TO ADD INLAND AT 12 HR... SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE MEXICAN RADARS AT LOS CABOS AND GUASAVE SHOW THAT LANE HAS AN EYE ABOUT 8-10 N MI WIDE. ON SATELLITE...THE EYE IS EMBEDDED IN CLOUD TOPS OF -70 TO -80C AND HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 115 KT FROM SAB...AND 102 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 110 KT BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES AND THE INCREASED EYE DEFINTION SINCE 12Z. THE LOS CABOS RADAR SUGGESTS THAT LANE IS ABOUT TO START AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...SUGGESTING THAT THE HURRICANE IS CLOSE TO PEAKING IN INTENSITY EVEN IF IT REMAINS OVER WATER LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXCIO AFTER LANDFALL...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 72 HR. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/9. LANE IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...AND IS MOVING TOWARD A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. IF OVER WATER...THIS WOULD PROBABLY RECURVE LANE TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDN MODEL. HOWEVER...THE LOWER- AND UPPER- LEVEL CIRCULATIONS OF LANE ARE LIKELY TO DE-COUPLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DISSIPATING AND THE UPPER CIRCULATION TURNING EASTWARD. THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION BEFORE DISSIPATION ALONG AND WEST OF THE MAIN MOUNTAIN RANGES OF WESTERN MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/1500Z 23.5N 107.1W 110 KT 12HR VT 17/0000Z 24.8N 107.4W 90 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 17/1200Z 25.9N 107.6W 60 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 18/0000Z 26.8N 107.9W 35 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 18/1200Z 27.8N 108.2W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING 72HR VT 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPZ23 KNHC 161539 *** TCMEP3 HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 1500 UTC SAT SEP 16 2006 ...CORRECTED TO ADD INLAND AT 12 HR... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM EL ROBLITO TO TOPOLOBAMPO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SAN EVARISTO TO CABO SAN LUCAS. THE HURRICANE WARNING AND THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR THE MEXICAN COAST SOUTH OF EL ROBLITO...AND FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF TOPOLOBAMPO TO HUATABAMPITO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 107.1W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 45NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 120SE 120SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 107.1W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 107.1W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 24.8N 107.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 25.9N 107.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 75SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 26.8N 107.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 27.8N 108.2W...INLAND DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 107.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPN32 PHNC 161600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/161530SEP2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 161200Z --- NEAR 17.5N 114.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N 114.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 18.3N 113.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 19.3N 112.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 20.4N 112.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 21.2N 112.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 23.0N 114.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 24.5N 115.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 27.0N 116.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 161600Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 114.0W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 14 FEET. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED 442 NM SSW OF LA PAZ. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162200Z, 170400Z, 171000Z AND 171600Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 13E (LANE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 161500 *** WARNING 161500. WARNING VALID 171500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 925 HPA AT 27.8N 126.4E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 170300UTC AT 30.8N 128.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 171500UTC AT 34.4N 131.0E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 161500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 161500UTC 27.8N 126.4E GOOD MOVE NNE 15KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 100KT 50KT 100NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST 30KT 240NM FORECAST 24HF 171500UTC 34.4N 131.0E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 20KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 181200UTC 38.7N 133.5E 170NM 70% MOVE NNE 14KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 69HF 191200UTC 41.2N 135.8E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 07KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTCA42 TJSJ 161558 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN GORDON ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 23 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 AM AST SABADO 16 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...GORDON CASI ESTACIONARIO Y PERMANECE COMO HURACAN... A LAS 1100 AST...1500Z..EL CENTRO DE HURACAN GORDON ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 31.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 53.7 OESTE O COMO A 655 MILLAS...1055 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE BERMUDA. GORDON ESTA AHORA CASI ESTACIONARIO. SE ESPERA QUE DESARROLLE UN MOVIMIENTO LENTO HACIA EL NORTE-NORESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 75 MPH CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUN DEBILITAMIENTO SE PRONOSTICA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS DE HURACANADOS SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 25 MILLAS...35 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KM. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 987 MILIBARAS...29.15 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 AM AST...31.3 NORTE...53.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...ESTACIONARIO. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...75 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...987 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR MAINELLI/BEVEN ** WTPQ20 BABJ 161600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 161600 UTC 00HR 27.9N 126.5E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NE 25KM/H= ** WTCA43 TJSJ 161632 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN HELENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 17 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 AM AST SABADO 16 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...HELENE SE CONVIERTE EN EL CUARTO HURACAN DE LA TEMPORADA DEL ATLANTICO... A LAS 1100 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL HELENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 18.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 45.6 OESTE O COMO A 1145 MILLAS...1845 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE. HELENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH... 24 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 75 MPH...120 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. HELENE ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA UNAS 30 MILLAS...45 KILOMETROS..DESDE EL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 175 MILLAS...280 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 987 MILIBARAS...29.15 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 AM AST...18.8 NORTE...45.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...75 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...987 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN/LANDSEA ** WTNT80 EGRR 161701 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 16.09.2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN ANALYSED POSITION : 17.5N 114.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 16.09.2006 17.5N 114.4W WEAK 00UTC 17.09.2006 18.3N 113.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.09.2006 19.3N 112.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2006 20.6N 111.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 18.09.2006 21.6N 110.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.09.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE GORDON ANALYSED POSITION : 31.4N 54.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 16.09.2006 31.4N 54.1W MODERATE 00UTC 17.09.2006 31.8N 54.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.09.2006 32.8N 53.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2006 34.4N 50.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.09.2006 38.1N 47.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2006 41.1N 41.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2006 42.9N 31.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2006 42.9N 22.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2006 45.1N 12.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2006 EXTRA-TROPICAL HURRICANE HELENE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.6N 45.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 16.09.2006 18.6N 45.3W MODERATE 00UTC 17.09.2006 19.7N 46.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2006 20.9N 48.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2006 22.0N 49.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.09.2006 23.4N 51.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2006 24.3N 52.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2006 25.0N 53.7W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2006 26.1N 54.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2006 27.5N 55.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2006 30.1N 56.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2006 33.9N 56.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2006 38.5N 54.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2006 EXTRA-TROPICAL HURRICANE LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 22.6N 107.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 16.09.2006 22.6N 107.2W INTENSE 00UTC 17.09.2006 23.9N 107.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2006 25.0N 107.7W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 18.09.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 161701 ** WTPQ20 BABJ 161700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 161700 UTC 00HR 28.1N 126.6E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NE 25KM/H= ** WTPN21 PGTW 161730 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/161721ZSEP2006// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A 160 NM RADIUS OF 20.5N 156.3E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY- CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 161530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 155.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 19.9N 155.9E, APPROXIMATELY 750 NM NORTHEAST OF GUAM HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 161105Z AMSU PASS DEPICT IMPROVED ORGANIZATION WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. A 160752Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE REVEALED 15 TO 20-KNOT WESTERLY WINDS EVIDENT SOUTH OF THE WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATED A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CENTER WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. THE UW-CIMSS SHEAR PRODUCT SHOWED WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BUT GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND GOOD OUTFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 171730Z.// ** WTCA43 TJSJ 161739 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN HELENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 17 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 AM AST SABADO 16 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...HELENE SE CONVIERTE EN EL CUARTO HURACAN DE LA TEMPORADA DEL ATLANTICO... A LAS 1100 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN HELENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 18.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 45.6 OESTE O COMO A 1145 MILLAS...1845 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE. HELENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH... 24 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 75 MPH...120 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. HELENE ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA UNAS 30 MILLAS...45 KILOMETROS..DESDE EL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 175 MILLAS...280 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 987 MILIBARAS...29.15 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 AM AST...18.8 NORTE...45.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...75 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...987 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN/LANDSEA ** WTCA43 TJSJ 161742 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN HELENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 17 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 AM AST SABADO 16 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...HELENE SE CONVIERTE EN EL CUARTO HURACAN DE LA TEMPORADA DEL ATLANTICO... A LAS 1100 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN HELENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 18.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 45.6 OESTE O COMO A 1145 MILLAS...1845 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE. HELENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH... 24 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 75 MPH...120 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. HELENE ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA UNAS 30 MILLAS...45 KILOMETROS..DESDE EL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 175 MILLAS...280 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 987 MILIBARAS...29.15 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 AM AST...18.8 NORTE...45.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...75 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...987 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN/LANDSEA TRADUCTOR CASTRO ** WTPZ33 KNHC 161747 *** TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE LANE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 1100 AM PDT SAT SEP 16 2006 ...DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE LANE ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM EL ROBLITO TO TOPOLOBAMPO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF TOPOLOBAMPO TO HUATABAMPITO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SAN EVARISTO TO CABO SAN LUCAS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LANE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.2 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES...95 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CULIACAN MEXICO AND ABOUT 80 MILES...130 KM...NORTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO. LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF LANE ACROSS THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LANE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL... FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AFTER LANDFALL. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE LANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LANE. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. CAJON DE PENA IN THE STATE OF JALISCO HAS REPORTED 7.36 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...24.0 N...107.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN