** WTPQ20 BABJ 160600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 160600 UTC 00HR 26.0N 124.8E 935HPA 50M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NNE 20KM/H P+24HR 30.8N 127.8E 935HPA 50M/S P+48HR 37.6N 131.6E 965HPA 35M/S P+72HR 43.0N 138.5E 980HPA 28M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 160600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 160600UTC 26.0N 124.8E GOOD MOVE NNE 12KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 100KT 50KT 90NM 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 170600UTC 31.0N 128.7E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 18KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 48HF 180600UTC 37.6N 132.2E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 18KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 72HF 190600UTC 40.2N 133.4E 290NM 70% MOVE N 06KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 160600 *** WARNING 160600. WARNING VALID 170600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 925 HPA AT 26.0N 124.8E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 12 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 28.0N 126.4E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 31.0N 128.7E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 37.6N 132.2E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 40.2N 133.4E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 160600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 13 NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN ANALYSIS POSITION 160600UTC 26.0N 124.8E MOVEMENT NNE 12KT PRES/VMAX 925HPA 101KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 170600UTC 30.9N 127.5E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 935HPA 91KT 48HR POSITION 180600UTC 37.2N 131.6E WITHIN 190NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT 72HR POSITION 190600UTC 40.1N 133.1E WITHIN 270NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 160700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 160700 UTC 00HR 26.1N 124.9E 935HPA 50M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NNE 20KM/H= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 160600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.14 FOR TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 160600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTIN20 DEMS 160700 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 16-09-2006(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER CENTRAL AND ADJOINING SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL, NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND EAST ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 25 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????????? ** WTPQ20 VHHH 160745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 160600 UTC, TYPHOON SHANSHAN (0613) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 930 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (25.9 N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (124.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 16 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 100 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. NO FURTHER WARNINGS ON THIS TYPHOON WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY UNLESS IT RE-ENTERS THE HONG KONG AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170600 UTC THREE ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (31.0 N) ONE TWO NINE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (129.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 100 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180600 UTC THREE SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (37.4 N) ONE THREE TWO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (132.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190600 UTC BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW. ** WTPN31 PGTW 160900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 026 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 160600Z --- NEAR 25.9N 124.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.9N 124.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 28.3N 126.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 31.3N 128.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 20 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 34.6N 130.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 23 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 38.3N 134.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 160900Z POSITION NEAR 26.5N 125.2E. TYPHOON (TY) 14W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155 NM WEST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 160800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 160800 UTC 00HR 26.2N 125.0E 935HPA 50M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NNE 20KM/H= ** WTNT22 KNHC 160839 *** TCMAT2 HURRICANE GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 0900 UTC SAT SEP 16 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 53.7W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..160NE 160SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 53.7W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 53.5W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 32.0N 53.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 33.2N 52.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 35.1N 51.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 37.3N 48.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 40.5N 35.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 80SW 80NW. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.3N 53.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/KNABB ** WTNT32 KNHC 160840 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 500 AM AST SAT SEP 16 2006 ...GORDON MEANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.7 WEST OR ABOUT 655 MILES... 1055 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA. GORDON HAS BEEN DRIFTING ERRATICALLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ...AND IS NOW NEARLY STATIONARY. A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...31.3 N...53.7 W. MOVEMENT... STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/KNABB ** WTNT23 KNHC 160852 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 0900 UTC SAT SEP 16 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 44.7W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT.......100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 180SE 180SW 225NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 44.7W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 44.3W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.8N 46.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.7N 47.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.6N 49.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 75SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.4N 50.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 75SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 23.0N 53.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 75SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 25.0N 56.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 28.0N 58.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 44.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTNT33 KNHC 160853 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 500 AM AST SAT SEP 16 2006 ...HELENE NOT QUITE YET A HURRICANE... AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.7 WEST OR ABOUT 1210 MILES...1945 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND HELENE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...17.9 N...44.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTPZ23 KNHC 160856 *** TCMEP3 HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 0900 UTC SAT SEP 16 2006 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM EL ROBLITO TO ALTATA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA ON THE WEST COAST AND SOUTH OF BUENA VISTA ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF ALTATA TO HUATABAMPITO....AND FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF BUENA VISTA TO LORETO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM ALTATA TO HUATABAMPITO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF EL ROBLITO TO CABO CORRIENTES. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 107.0W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 45NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 120SE 120SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 107.0W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 106.8W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 24.0N 107.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 25.1N 107.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 45SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 26.2N 107.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 60SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 27.3N 108.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 45SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 28.5N 109.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 107.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB ** WTPZ33 KNHC 160856 *** TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 200 AM PDT SAT SEP 16 2006 ...LANE BECOMES THE FIFTH MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2006 SEASON... ...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM EL ROBLITO TO ALTATA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA ON THE WEST COAST AND SOUTH OF BUENA VISTA ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF ALTATA TO HUATABAMPITO....AND FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF BUENA VISTA TO LORETO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM ALTATA TO HUATABAMPITO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF EL ROBLITO TO CABO CORRIENTES. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LANE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.0 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES... 85 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO AND ABOUT 185 MILES...300 KM ...EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO. LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF LANE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LANE IS NOW A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANE MAKING LANDFALL. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA ALONG THE TRACK OF LANE. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...22.7 N...107.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB ** WTCA42 TJSJ 160856 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN GORDON ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 22 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL072006 500 AM AST SABADO 16 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...GORDON SE MUEVE ERRATICAMENTE EN EL ATLANTICO CENTRAL... A LAS 500 AST...0900Z..EL CENTRO DE HURACAN GORDON ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 31.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 53.7 OESTE O COMO A 655 MILLAS...1055 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE BERMUDA. GORDON SE HA ESTADO MOVIENDO ERRATICAMENTE DURANTE LAS PASADAS 24 HORAS...Y ESTA AHORA CASI ESTACIONARIO. SE ESPERA QUE DESARROLLE UN MOVIMIENTO LENTO HACIA EL NORTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS DE HURACANADOS SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 25 MILLAS...35 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KM. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 987 MILIBARAS...29.15 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 AM AST...31.3 NORTE...53.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...ESTACIONARIO. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...75 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...987 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN/KNABB ** WTNT43 KNHC 160857 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 500 AM EDT SAT SEP 16 2006 A SERIES OF MICROWAVE OVERPASSES REVEALS THAT HELENE HAS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION...BUT WITH DEEP CONVECTION THAT DOES NOT PERSIST IN THE SAME QUADRANT FOR VERY LONG. THE MOST RECENT IMAGE FROM AMSR-E AT 0420 UTC INDICATED THAT DEEP CONVECTION WAS PRESENT ONLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND GOES IMAGERY SINCE THEN SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION HAS WRAPPED AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST SIDE. MEANWHILE...THERE IS VERY LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. EVEN THOUGH DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT 4.0 USING AN EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN...CORRESPONDING TO AN INTENSITY OF 65 KT...THE PERCOLATING BEHAVIOR OF THE CONVECTION LEADS ME TO LEAVE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY AT 60 KT FOR NOW. NEVERTHELESS...THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS CONDUCIVE ENOUGH FOR HELENE TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY AND SUBSEQUENTLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE SHIPS AND GFDL BOTH FORECAST GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER THE SHIPS LEVELS OFF NEAR 80 KT... BUT THE GFDL ANTICIPATES HELENE LATER APPROACHING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THOSE TWO MODELS EARLY ON...THEN FOLLOWS THE GFDL...AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. DUE TO THE PULSATING CONVECTIVE PATTERN...I WOULD NOT HAVE A VERY GOOD IDEA WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS WITHOUT THE BENEFIT OF THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY...WHICH INDICATES THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AT 300/13. ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THAT WEAKNESS IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE GORDON AND SHOULD BE REINFORCED BY A SHORT-WAVE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THAT FEATURE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE ENOUGH TO TURN HELENE NORTHWARD...BUT THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES PROBABLY WILL...WHEN IT GETS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN SEVERAL DAYS. NEARLY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TURN HELENE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AHEAD OF THAT TROUGH ON DAY 5...AND THAT TURN IS NOW INTRODUCED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS OTHERWISE VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0900Z 17.9N 44.7W 60 KT 12HR VT 16/1800Z 18.8N 46.1W 65 KT 24HR VT 17/0600Z 19.7N 47.6W 75 KT 36HR VT 17/1800Z 20.6N 49.1W 80 KT 48HR VT 18/0600Z 21.4N 50.4W 85 KT 72HR VT 19/0600Z 23.0N 53.0W 95 KT 96HR VT 20/0600Z 25.0N 56.0W 95 KT 120HR VT 21/0600Z 28.0N 58.0W 90 KT $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTPZ43 KNHC 160859 *** TCDEP3 HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 200 AM PDT SAT SEP 16 2006 LANE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING AS THE EYE IS BECOMING MORE DISTINCT IN CONVECTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW 102 KT FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES AND THE EXPERIMENTAL UW CIMSS ADT IS 105 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 100 KT...MAKING LANE THE FIFTH MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2006 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC SEASON. LANE HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 350/09. THE STEERING IS BEING PROVIDED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO... WITH THE CYCLONE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO A WEAKNESS CREATED BY A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. WHILE MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY...THEY DISAGREE ON THE EXTENT TO WHICH THE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL BUILD BACK TO THE WEST NORTH OF LANE. THIS RESULTS IN SOME DIFFERENCES REGARDING WHERE AND WHEN LANE MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. THE ECMWF...UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS ALLOW JUST ENOUGH RIDGING NORTH OF LANE TO PRODUCE A NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION KEEPING THE CYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO. CONVERSELY...THE GFDL FORECASTS LITTLE OR NO RIDGING NORTH OF LANE RESULTING IN AN ALMOST DUE NORTH TRACK THAT TAKES THE CYCLONE INLAND IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. GIVEN THE GFDL'S RELIABLE PERFORMANCE THUS FAR WITH THIS HURRICANE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFDL SOLUTION. THIS RESULTS IN AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...TAKING LANE INLAND OVER MEXICO IN 12-18 HOURS. ONCE INLAND...THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE INTERACTION OF THE CYCLONE WITH COMPLEX TERRAIN OVER MEXICO. THE DEEP LAYER STEERING WOULD TEND TO PRODUCE A NORTHEAST TURN BEYOND 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THE CYCLONE COULD CROSS THE VERY HIGH TERRAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL MOUNTAINS. A MORE PLAUSIBLE OUTCOME IS FOR THE CYCLONE TO BECOME DECOUPLED...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION TURNING NORTHEAST WHILE THE LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION PARALLELS THE WESTWARD SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ONCE LANE MOVES INLAND. AS LONG AS LANE REMAINS OVER WATER...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING REMAINS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE WINDOW APPEARS THE BE CLOSING AS THE CYCLONE NEARS MAINLAND MEXICO. SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE EAST...AND LANDFALL IS NOW EXPECTED SOONER...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD BEYOND 12 HOURS. ONCE INLAND...RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE CYCLONE'S SMALL SIZE...AND LANE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. IF LANE WERE TO MOVE A LITTLE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK AND REMAIN OVER WATER LONGER...IT COULD BE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0900Z 22.7N 107.0W 100 KT 12HR VT 16/1800Z 24.0N 107.1W 105 KT 24HR VT 17/0600Z 25.1N 107.5W 85 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 17/1800Z 26.2N 107.9W 60 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 18/0600Z 27.3N 108.5W 40 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 19/0600Z 28.5N 109.5W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 20/0600Z...INLAND $$ FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB ** WTNT22 KNHC 160900 *** TCMAT2 HURRICANE GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 0900 UTC SAT SEP 16 2006 ...CORRECTED DATE FOR ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM... HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 53.7W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..160NE 160SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 53.7W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 53.5W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 32.0N 53.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 33.2N 52.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 35.1N 51.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 37.3N 48.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 40.5N 35.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 80SW 80NW. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.3N 53.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/KNABB ** WTNT42 KNHC 160900 *** TCDAT2 HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 500 AM EDT SAT SEP 16 2006 ONLY LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING AROUND THE NOW RAGGED EYE SEEN IN INFRARED IMAGERY. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 3.5 AND 4.0...AND GIVEN THIS...THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 65 KT. GORDON WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT CROSSES THE 27C ISOTHERM AND MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT GORDON WILL BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BETWEEN DAYS 2 AND 3...AND THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT ASSUMING THAT THE CYCLONE RECEIVES A SHOT OF BAROCLINIC ENERGY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS...UKMET...CANADIAN...ECMWF...AND GFDL MODELS ALL SHOW GORDON BECOMING ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY DAY 4 OR 5. ONLY THE NOGAPS KEEPS GORDON AS A SEPARATE SYSTEM WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE...A SOLUTION THAT SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE NOGAPS MODEL ROBUST BOGUS. THE CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY DAY 3 AND ABSORPTION BY THE FRONT AT DAY 4. GORDON HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND NOW APPEARS TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY OR EVEN DRIFTING SLIGHTLY WEST. THE GLOBAL MODELS ALL SHOW A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ARE LEFT OF AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS. AN INCREASE IN MODEL SPREAD IS SEEN AT DAY 3 AS THE CYCLONE ACCELERATES TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE FORWARD SPEED CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS... CONU...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0900Z 31.3N 53.7W 65 KT 12HR VT 16/1800Z 32.0N 53.3W 65 KT 24HR VT 17/0600Z 33.2N 52.7W 60 KT 36HR VT 17/1800Z 35.1N 51.2W 55 KT 48HR VT 18/0600Z 37.3N 48.0W 55 KT 72HR VT 19/0600Z 40.5N 35.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 20/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/KNABB ** WTCA43 TJSJ 160903 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL HELENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 16 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL082006 500 AM AST SABADO 16 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...HELENE TODAVIA NO ES HURACAN... A LAS 500 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL HELENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 44.7 OESTE O COMO A 1210 MILLAS...1945 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE. HELENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH... 24 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 70 MPH...110 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO GRADUAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y SE ESPERA QUE HELENE SE CONVIERTA EN HURACAN EL SABADO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EXTIENDEN HACUA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 992 MILIBARAS...29.29 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 AM AST...17.9 NORTE...44.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...70 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...992 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADO KNABB ** WTPQ20 BABJ 160900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 160900 UTC 00HR 26.5N 125.3E 935HPA 50M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NNE 25KM/H P+24HR 31.6N 128.8E 945HPA 45M/S P+48HR 38.3N 133.0E 970HPA 33M/S P+72HR 44.0N 138.0E 985HPA 25M/S= ** WTPZ33 KNHC 160918 *** TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 11...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 200 AM PDT SAT SEP 16 2006 ...CORRECTED TO INCLUDE STORM SURGE... ...LANE BECOMES THE FIFTH MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2006 SEASON... ...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM EL ROBLITO TO ALTATA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA ON THE WEST COAST AND SOUTH OF BUENA VISTA ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF ALTATA TO HUATABAMPITO....AND FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF BUENA VISTA TO LORETO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM ALTATA TO HUATABAMPITO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF EL ROBLITO TO CABO CORRIENTES. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LANE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.0 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES... 85 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO AND ABOUT 185 MILES...300 KM ...EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO. LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF LANE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LANE IS NOW A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANE MAKING LANDFALL. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LANE. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA ALONG THE TRACK OF LANE. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...22.7 N...107.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB ** WTPN31 PHNC 161000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 13E (LANE) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 160600Z --- NEAR 22.2N 106.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.7N 107.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 24.0N 107.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 25.1N 107.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 26.2N 107.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 27.3N 108.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 28.5N 109.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: 161000Z POSITION NEAR 23.1N 107.0W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 28 FEET. AT 091606 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED 45 NM SW OF MAZATLAN. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161600Z, 162200Z, 170400Z AND 171000Z.// ** WTPH RPLL 160600 *** GALE WARNING NO.2 (FINAL) FOR STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON ENCHANCED BY TYPHOON LUIS ISSUED AT 5PM TODAY 16 SEPTEMBER 2006. MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON ENCHANCED BY TYPHOON LUIS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN SEABOARDS OF LUZON. THE NORTHERN SEABOARDS OF LUZON WILL EXPERIENCE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED RAINSHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM. WINDS OF 30 TO 47KPH (16 TO 25 KNOTS) ARE EXPECTED AND SEA CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSERTA TO ROUGH WITH WAVE HEIGHT OF 1.25 TO 2.8 METERS. WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT THIS IS THE FINAL GALE WARNING ON THIS WEATHER DISTURBANCE. ** WTPZ63 KNHC 160945 *** TCUEP3 HURRICANE LANE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 245 AM PDT SAT SEP 16 2006 AT 245 PDT...0945 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO NORTHWARD FROM ALTATA TO TOPOLOBAMPO. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM EL ROBLITO TO TOPOLOBAMPO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. $$ FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB ** WTJP31 RJTD 160900 *** WARNING 160900. WARNING VALID 170900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 925 HPA AT 26.5N 125.4E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHEAST 14 KNOTS. RATHER ACCELERATING. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 162100UTC AT 28.9N 127.2E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 170900UTC AT 32.0N 129.4E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 160900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 160900UTC 26.5N 125.4E GOOD MOVE NE 14KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 100KT 50KT 90NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 170900UTC 32.0N 129.4E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 18KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 45HF 180600UTC 37.6N 132.2E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 18KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 69HF 190600UTC 40.2N 133.4E 290NM 70% MOVE N 06KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 161000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 161000 UTC 00HR 26.7N 125.4E 935HPA 50M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NNE 25KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 161100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 161100 UTC 00HR 26.9N 125.6E 935HPA 50M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NNE 25KM/H= ** WTPZ33 KNHC 161147 *** TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE LANE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 500 AM PDT SAT SEP 16 2006 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE GETTING CLOSER TO THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM EL ROBLITO TO TOPOLOBAMPO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA ON THE WEST COAST AND SOUTH OF BUENA VISTA ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF TOPOLOBAMPO TO HUATABAMPITO....AND FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF BUENA VISTA TO LORETO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO TO HUATABAMPITO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF EL ROBLITO TO CABO CORRIENTES. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LANE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.0 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES... 75 KM...WEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO AND ABOUT 185 MILES...300 KM ...EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO. LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH...18 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF LANE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LANE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL....FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AFTER LANDFALL. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LANE. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA ALONG THE TRACK OF LANE. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...23.1 N...107.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPZ44 KNHC 161152 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142006 500 AM PDT SAT SEP 16 2006 THE FIRST FEW IMAGES OUT OF THE GOES-11 ECLIPSE PERIOD INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 400 N MI SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS DEVELOPED SOME VERY DEEP AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION...AND ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT BASED ON AN OBSERVATION AT 0600 UTC...VERY NEAR THE APPARENT CIRCULATION CENTER...BY A SHIP WITH CALL SIGN ELTZ7. THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE EXPERIENCING SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AS EVIDENCED BY DISPLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION. SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY STRONG...ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED...AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE VERY STRONG CONVECTION...ANY RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR COULD RESULT IN A LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 045/04. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE DEPRESSION FEELS THE INFLUENCE OF HURRICANE LANE. BEYOND 36 HOURS...LANE IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING AND THEREFORE LOSING ITS GRIP ON THE NEW CYCLONE. THIS SHOULD THEN RESULT IN A NORTHWARD TURN AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS CREATED BY A MID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AS IT ENCOUNTERS PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THIS SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BEYOND ABOUT 72 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/1200Z 17.5N 114.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 16/1800Z 17.9N 114.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 17/0600Z 18.9N 113.2W 40 KT 36HR VT 17/1800Z 19.8N 112.7W 45 KT 48HR VT 18/0600Z 20.8N 112.7W 40 KT 72HR VT 19/0600Z 22.5N 113.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 20/0600Z 24.0N 114.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 21/0600Z 26.0N 115.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB ** WTPZ24 KNHC 161152 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142006 1200 UTC SAT SEP 16 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 114.4W AT 16/1200Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 114.4W AT 16/1200Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 114.8W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.9N 114.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 60SE 90SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.9N 113.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 60SE 90SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.8N 112.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 75SE 100SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 20.8N 112.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 75SE 100SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 22.5N 113.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 60SE 90SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 24.0N 114.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 26.0N 115.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 114.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB