** WTSR20 WSSS 151800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 160000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 160000 UTC 00HR 24.9N 124.2E 935HPA 50M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NNE 20KM/H P+24HR 29.9N 127.0E 935HPA 50M/S P+48HR 36.2N 131.1E 960HPA 38M/S P+72HR 42.3N 136.2E 975HPA 30M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 160000 *** WARNING 160000. WARNING VALID 170000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 925 HPA AT 24.9N 124.2E OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 26.5N 125.4E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 28.8N 127.4E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 34.9N 130.9E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 38.5N 131.8E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 160000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 160000UTC 24.9N 124.2E GOOD MOVE NNE 09KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 100KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 170000UTC 28.8N 127.4E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 14KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 100KT 48HF 180000UTC 34.9N 130.9E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 16KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 72HF 190000UTC 38.5N 131.8E 290NM 70% MOVE N 09KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 160100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 160100 UTC 00HR 25.0N 124.3E 935HPA 50M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NNE 20KM/H= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 160000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.13 FOR TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 160000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 160145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 160000 UTC, TYPHOON SHANSHAN (0613) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 930 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (24.9 N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (124.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST OR NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 100 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170000 UTC TWO NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (29.6 N) ONE TWO SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (127.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 100 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180000 UTC THREE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (35.8 N) ONE THREE ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (131.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190000 UTC BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 160200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 160200 UTC 00HR 25.2N 124.3E 935HPA 50M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NNE 20KM/H= ** WTPN31 PGTW 160300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 025 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 160000Z --- NEAR 24.9N 124.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.9N 124.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 26.9N 125.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 29.5N 127.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 32.4N 128.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 23 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 36.4N 131.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 26 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 44.3N 139.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 160300Z POSITION NEAR 25.4N 124.5E. TYPHOON (TY) 14W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z.// ** WTNT22 KNHC 160234 *** TCMAT2 HURRICANE GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 0300 UTC SAT SEP 16 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 53.4W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..160NE 160SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 53.4W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 53.5W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 31.7N 53.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 32.6N 52.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 34.0N 51.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 36.1N 48.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 90SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 40.9N 37.7W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 90SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 42.5N 21.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.3N 53.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTNT42 KNHC 160234 *** TCDAT2 HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006 GORDON HAS BASICALLY BEEN STATIONARY FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE HURRICANE HAS STRENGTHENED. HOWEVER...A WEAK MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 30N 60W MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD GORDON SHOULD GRADUALLY NUDGE THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HORUS OR SO. AFTER THAT...THE GLOBAL AND GFDL MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD AND CAPTURE GORDON AND ACCELERATE IT TO THE NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY EASTWARD.... SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. ALTHOUGH THE EYE HAS BECOME RAGGED AND OCCASIONALLY CLOUD COVERED IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE EYE HAS REMAINED DISTINCT IN WHAT LIMITED MICROWAVE DATA HAS BEEN AVAILABLE. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ONLY DECREASED SLIGHTLY. THE OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS...WHICH MAY HELP TO KEEP GORDON A LITTLE STRONGER THAN USUAL FOR A HURRICANE AT THIS LOCATION IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT ALL PERIODS...BUT IS HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL AT 72 AND 96 HOURS DUE TO EXPECTED TRANSITION INTO A SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEFORE IT MERGES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY 120 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0300Z 31.3N 53.4W 75 KT 12HR VT 16/1200Z 31.7N 53.2W 65 KT 24HR VT 17/0000Z 32.6N 52.5W 60 KT 36HR VT 17/1200Z 34.0N 51.4W 55 KT 48HR VT 18/0000Z 36.1N 48.6W 55 KT 72HR VT 19/0000Z 40.9N 37.7W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 20/0000Z 42.5N 21.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 21/0000Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPZ23 KNHC 160239 *** TCMEP3 HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 0300 UTC SAT SEP 16 2006 AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN MAINLAND SOUTH OF CABO CORRIENTES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT SOUTH OF EL ROBLITO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN MAINLAND FROM EL ROBLITO TO ALTATA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA ON THE PACIFIC COAST AND SOUTH OF BUENA VISTA ON THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN MAINLAND NORTH OF ALTATA TO HUATABAMPITO....AND FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF BUENA VISTA TO LORETO. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 106.8W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB EYE DIAMETER 9 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 120SE 120SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 106.8W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 106.7W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 23.0N 107.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 23.6N 107.7W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 24.3N 108.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 25.2N 108.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 26.5N 108.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 90SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 27.7N 108.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 29.2N 107.7W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 106.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART ** WTNT32 KNHC 160241 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 PM AST FRI SEP 15 2006 ...GORDON SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MEANDERS OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.4 WEST OR ABOUT 675 MILES... 1085 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA. GORDON IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 4 MPH...6 KM/HR ... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AND SOME ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND GORDON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SATURDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...31.3 N...53.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTNT23 KNHC 160241 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 0300 UTC SAT SEP 16 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 43.7W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT.......100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 180SE 180SW 225NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 43.7W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 43.2W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.9N 45.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.9N 46.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.8N 48.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 20.7N 49.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 22.4N 51.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 24.0N 54.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 26.0N 57.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 43.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTNT33 KNHC 160245 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 PM AST FRI SEP 15 2006 ...HELENE STILL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN... AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.7 WEST OR ABOUT 1195 MILES...1925 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND HELENE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...17.2 N...43.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTCA42 TJSJ 160250 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN GORDON ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 21 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 PM AST VIERNES 15 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...GORDON DEBILITANDOSE LENTAMENTE A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVE SOBRE ATLANTICO ABIERTO... A LAS 1100 PM AST...0300Z..EL CENTRO DE HURACAN GORDON ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 31.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 53.4 OESTE O COMO A 675 MILLAS...1085 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE BERMUDA. GORDON SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 4 MPH...6 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. SIN EMBARGO...LAS CORRIENTES CONDUCENTES ESTAN DEBILES Y SERA POSIBLE ALGUN MOVIMIENTO ERRATICO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 85 MPH...140 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA QUE GORDON SE DEBILITE GRADUALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y QUE SE TORNE EN UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL EL SABADO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 35 MILLAS...55 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 980 MILIBARAS...28.94 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 PM AST...31.3 NORTE...53.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NORTE NORESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...85 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...980 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR STEWART ** WTNT43 KNHC 160300 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/12. HELENE APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK BASED ON A PLETHORA OF MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA. THE INITIAL POSITION...HOWEVER...IS SOUTH OF THE CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE FIXES WHICH APPEAR TO BE A REFLECTION OF A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. MICROWAVE DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE ADVISORY MAY BE A LITTLE TOO FAR TO THE NORTH...BUT CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK WAS FOLLOWED GIVEN THAT HELENE STILL HAS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND REDEVELOPMENT OF THE CENTER FARTHER NORTH IS STILL POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...THERE REMAINS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL FORECAST TRACKS AND REASONINGS. THE MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE MODELS DIVERGE QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE GFDL TAKING HELENE MORE NORTHWARD...WHILE THE NOGAPS MODEL TAKES THE CYCLONE MORE WESTWARD. THE REST OF THE MODELS ARE SPREAD OUT EVENLY BETWEEN THOSE TWO EXTREMES. HOWEVER...ALL THE MODELS AGREE THAT A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND THEN EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THE STEERING FLOW AHEAD OF HELENE BY 96 AND 120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. THE OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS...WHICH USUALLY FAVORS STEADY INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...DRY AIR IS STILL BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE AS NOTED IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY...SO ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...DECREASING VERTICALLY SHEAR AND INCREASING SSTS SHOULD LEAD TO MORE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION AND HELENE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS...AND POSSIBLY THROUGH 120H. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0300Z 17.2N 43.7W 60 KT 12HR VT 16/1200Z 17.9N 45.1W 65 KT 24HR VT 17/0000Z 18.9N 46.7W 70 KT 36HR VT 17/1200Z 19.8N 48.1W 75 KT 48HR VT 18/0000Z 20.7N 49.4W 90 KT 72HR VT 19/0000Z 22.4N 51.8W 100 KT 96HR VT 20/0000Z 24.0N 54.6W 100 KT 120HR VT 21/0000Z 26.0N 57.0W 95 KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPZ33 KNHC 160301 *** TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 800 PM PDT FRI SEP 15 2006 ...HURRICANE LANE HAMMERING ISLA MARIAS... AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN MAINLAND SOUTH OF CABO CORRIENTES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT SOUTH OF EL ROBLITO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN MAINLAND FROM EL ROBLITO TO ALTATA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA ON THE PACIFIC COAST AND SOUTH OF BUENA VISTA ON THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN MAINLAND NORTH OF ALTATA TO HUATABAMPITO....AND FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF BUENA VISTA TO LORETO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LANE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.8 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES ...185 KM...NORTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 215 MILES ...345 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO. LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE EYE OF HURRICANE LANE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OF MAINLAND MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES LANE A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND LANE IS EXPECTED BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON SATURDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF LANE. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...FROM COLIMA TO PUERTO VALLARTA AND CULIACAN...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...21.7 N...106.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART ** WTPZ43 KNHC 160301 *** TCDEP3 HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 800 PM PDT FRI SEP 15 2006 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE RADAR PRESENTATION FROM LOS CABOS MEXICO...AND EARLIER MICROWAVE OVERPASSES DEPICT THAT LANE HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED INTO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS INNER CORE CLOUD TOPS OF -80C SURROUNDING THE SMALL 9 N MI EYE. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE ISLA MARIAS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE RAW T-NUMBERS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY INCREASE TO 90 KT. BASED ON THE EXPECTED FAVORABLE AND IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PATTERN OVER LANE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CURRENT EYEWALL STRUCTURE TRENDS...AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF NEAR 30C...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD STRENGTHEN FURTHER INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND CALLS FOR RAPID WEAKENING AFTER LANDFALL BEYOND THE 48 HOUR PERIOD...AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL MOUNTAINS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 340/10...SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LANE REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND IS MOVING TOWARD A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN FORWARD MOTION IN 12 HOURS AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES FARTHER INLAND...ALLOWING THE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO TO BUILD BACK WESTWARD. AROUND THE 48 HOUR PERIOD...THE UKMET AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME STATIONARY JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING NEAR THE 72 HOUR PERIOD. THE NOGAPS INDICATES INTERACTION WITH THE DISTURBANCE LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF LANE WHICH CAUSES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA...CONTINUING OFF OF THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA AND DISSIPATING IN 96 HOURS. THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE UNREASONABLE SIZE MID-LEVEL STRUCTURE OF THE DISTURBANCE IN THE FIELDS. THE GFDL AND THE GFS AND THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGEST AN EARLIER LANDFALL EVENT IN 24 HOURS JUST EAST OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS BETWEEN THE GFDL AND THE OTHER LARGE-SCALE AND CONSENSUS MODELS...BRINGING LANE INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH GRADUAL DECELERATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS BASED ON THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH CALLS FOR LANDFALL NEAR THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. HOWEVER...ANY ADDITIONAL MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK...SIMILAR TO THE GFDL/GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING LANE TO THE COAST EARLIER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0300Z 21.7N 106.8W 90 KT 12HR VT 16/1200Z 23.0N 107.3W 100 KT 24HR VT 17/0000Z 23.6N 107.7W 110 KT 36HR VT 17/1200Z 24.3N 108.3W 110 KT 48HR VT 18/0000Z 25.2N 108.5W 110 KT 72HR VT 19/0000Z 26.5N 108.5W 65 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 20/0000Z 27.7N 108.3W 30 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 21/0000Z 29.2N 107.7W 20 KT...DISSIPATING $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART ** WTCA43 TJSJ 160302 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL HELENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 15 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL082006 500 PM AST VIERNES 15 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...HELENE AUN MOVIENDOSE AL OESTE NOROESTE SOBRE EL OCEANO ATLANTICO CENTRAL... A LAS 1100 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL HELENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 43.7 OESTE O COMO A 1195 MILLAS...1925 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO. HELENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH... 22 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 70 MPH...110 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO GRADUAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y SE ESPERA QUE HELENE SE CONVIERTA EN HURACAN EL SABADO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EXTIENDEN HACUA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 992 MILIBARAS...29.29 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 PM AST...17.2 NORTE...43.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...70 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...992 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADO STEWART ** WTPQ20 BABJ 160300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 160300 UTC 00HR 25.5N 124.3E 935HPA 50M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NNE 20KM/H= ** WTPH RPLL 160000 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 24 (FINAL) AT 0000 16 SEPTEMBER TYPHOON(SHANSHAN) (0613) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO FOUR POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT TWO EAST MVNG NORTH NORTHEAST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTMD CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX THREE HECTOPASCAL MAX WNDS FOUR ONE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITION AT 170000 TWO SEVEN POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT SIX EAST WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS WEATHER DISTURBANCE PD= ** WTPN31 PHNC 160400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 13E (LANE) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 160000Z --- NEAR 21.7N 106.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.7N 106.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 23.0N 107.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 23.6N 107.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 24.3N 108.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 25.2N 108.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 26.5N 108.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 27.7N 108.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 29.2N 107.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 160400Z POSITION NEAR 22.1N 107.0W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 25 FEET. AT 091600 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED 93 NM SSW OF MAZATLAN. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161000Z, 161600Z, 162200Z AND 170400Z.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 160300 *** WARNING 160300. WARNING VALID 170300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 925 HPA AT 25.5N 124.3E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 11 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 161500UTC AT 27.2N 125.8E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 170300UTC AT 29.7N 127.6E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 160300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 160300UTC 25.5N 124.3E GOOD MOVE N 11KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 100KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 170300UTC 29.7N 127.6E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 14KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 100KT 45HF 180000UTC 34.9N 130.9E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 16KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 69HF 190000UTC 38.5N 131.8E 290NM 70% MOVE N 09KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 160400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 160400 UTC 00HR 25.6N 124.3E 935HPA 50M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NNE 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 160445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 160300 UTC, TYPHOON SHANSHAN (0613) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 930 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (25.4 N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (124.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST OR NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 100 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170300 UTC THREE ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (30.3 N) ONE TWO EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (128.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 100 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180300 UTC THREE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (36.6 N) ONE THREE ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (131.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190300 UTC BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 160500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 160500 UTC 00HR 25.7N 124.4E 935HPA 50M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NNE 20KM/H= ** WTNT80 EGRR 160538 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 16.09.2006 HURRICANE GORDON ANALYSED POSITION : 31.2N 53.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.09.2006 31.2N 53.3W MODERATE 12UTC 16.09.2006 31.7N 53.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2006 32.0N 53.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.09.2006 35.0N 53.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2006 37.3N 51.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2006 38.8N 46.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 19.09.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM HELENE ANALYSED POSITION : 17.4N 43.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.09.2006 17.4N 43.6W MODERATE 12UTC 16.09.2006 18.2N 45.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2006 19.4N 47.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.09.2006 20.5N 48.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2006 21.9N 50.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.09.2006 23.1N 51.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.09.2006 24.1N 53.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2006 24.2N 54.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2006 25.6N 56.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.09.2006 26.8N 57.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2006 28.8N 57.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.09.2006 31.3N 57.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2006 35.1N 56.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY HURRICANE LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 21.2N 106.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.09.2006 21.2N 106.4W STRONG 12UTC 16.09.2006 22.6N 107.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 17.09.2006 24.2N 108.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2006 24.6N 108.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2006 24.6N 108.7W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 18.09.2006 24.2N 109.4W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 19.09.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 14.8N 120.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.09.2006 14.8N 120.0W WEAK 12UTC 16.09.2006 14.5N 119.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2006 15.2N 119.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.09.2006 15.9N 118.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2006 16.6N 118.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2006 17.4N 119.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2006 18.3N 120.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2006 19.4N 121.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2006 21.4N 121.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2006 22.4N 122.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 21.09.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 160538 ** WTPZ33 KNHC 160559 *** TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE LANE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 1100 PM PDT FRI SEP 15 2006 ...HURRICANE LANE CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE ISLAS MARIAS... ...OUTER RAINBANDS AFFECTING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE OF SINALOA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM EL ROBLITO TO ALTATA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA ON THE PACIFIC COAST AND SOUTH OF BUENA VISTA ON THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF EL ROBLITO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF ALTATA TO HUATABAMPITO....AND FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF BUENA VISTA TO LORETO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM PDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LANE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.8 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES ...110 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO AND ABOUT 200 MILES ...320 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO. WHILE THE CENTER OF LANE HAS RECENTLY WOBBLED TO THE NORTH...IT HAS GENERALLY BEEN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH...15 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY NEAR OR ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE INLAND WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES LANE A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND LANE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF LANE. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...FROM COLIMA TO PUERTO VALLARTA AND CULIACAN...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM PDT POSITION...22.2 N...106.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB