** WTPQ20 BABJ 151800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 151800 UTC 00HR 24.0N 123.7E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR N 20KM/H P+24HR 28.8N 124.9E 935HPA 50M/S P+48HR 34.2N 129.9E 955HPA 40M/S P+72HR 40.5N 132.5E 970HPA 30M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 151800 *** WARNING 151800. WARNING VALID 161800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 925 HPA AT 24.0N 123.8E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTH 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 25.7N 124.6E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 27.7N 126.4E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 33.6N 130.4E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 38.0N 132.6E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 151800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 151800UTC 24.0N 123.8E GOOD MOVE N 09KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 100KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 161800UTC 27.7N 126.4E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 12KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 100KT 48HF 171800UTC 33.6N 130.4E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 17KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 72HF 181800UTC 38.0N 132.6E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 11KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 151800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 12 NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN ANALYSIS POSITION 151800UTC 24.0N 123.8E MOVEMENT N 10KT PRES/VMAX 925HPA 101KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 161800UTC 28.1N 125.8E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 930HPA 95KT 48HR POSITION 171800UTC 33.9N 129.4E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT 72HR POSITION 181800UTC 38.2N 131.9E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 151900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 151900 UTC 00HR 24.1N 123.7E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR N 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 151945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 151800 UTC, TYPHOON SHANSHAN (0613) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (24.0 N) ONE TWO THREE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (123.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 95 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 161800 UTC TWO EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (28.1 N) ONE TWO SIX POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (126.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 171800 UTC THREE FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (34.4 N) ONE TWO NINE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (129.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 181800 UTC THREE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (39.9 N) ONE THREE ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (131.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 152000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 152000 UTC 00HR 24.2N 123.8E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR N 15KM/H= ** WTPZ33 KNHC 152030 *** TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 200 PM PDT FRI SEP 15 2006 ...LANE BECOMES A HURRICANE WITH MORE STRENGTHENING EXPECTED... HURRICANE WARNING FOR MAINLAND MEXICO... AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN MAINLAND FROM EL ROBLITO TO ALTATA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA ON THE PACIFIC COAST AND SOUTH OF BUENA VISTA ON THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN MAINLAND NORTH OF ALTATA TO HUATABAMPITO....AND FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF BUENA VISTA TO LORETO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT SOUTH OF EL ROBLITO TO MANZANILLO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LANE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.3 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES... 65 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 280 MILES...450 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO. LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF LANE NEAR THE ISLAS MARIAS TONIGHT. WHILE THE CENTER OF LANE IS FORECAST TO STAY OFFSHORE OF MAINLAND MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LANE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND LANE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON SATURDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF LANE. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO AND OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...20.6 N...106.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPZ23 KNHC 152031 *** TCMEP3 HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 2100 UTC FRI SEP 15 2006 AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN MAINLAND FROM EL ROBLITO TO ALTATA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA ON THE PACIFIC COAST AND SOUTH OF BUENA VISTA ON THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN MAINLAND NORTH OF ALTATA TO HUATABAMPITO....AND FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF BUENA VISTA TO LORETO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT SOUTH OF EL ROBLITO TO MANZANILLO. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 106.3W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 75SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 120SE 120SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 106.3W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 106.2W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 21.8N 106.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 23.1N 107.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 24.0N 108.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 24.7N 108.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 26.0N 108.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 90SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 27.0N 108.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 28.5N 108.0W...INLAND DISSIPATING MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 106.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPZ23 KNHC 152031 *** TCMEP3 HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 2100 UTC FRI SEP 15 2006 AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN MAINLAND FROM EL ROBLITO TO ALTATA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA ON THE PACIFIC COAST AND SOUTH OF BUENA VISTA ON THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN MAINLAND NORTH OF ALTATA TO HUATABAMPITO....AND FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF BUENA VISTA TO LORETO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT SOUTH OF EL ROBLITO TO MANZANILLO. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 106.3W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 75SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 120SE 120SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 106.3W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 106.2W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 21.8N 106.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 23.1N 107.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 24.0N 108.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 24.7N 108.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 26.0N 108.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 90SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 27.0N 108.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 28.5N 108.0W...INLAND DISSIPATING MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 106.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTNT33 KNHC 152040 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 500 PM AST FRI SEP 15 2006 ...HELENE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH...POSES NO THREAT TO LAND... AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.8 WEST OR ABOUT 1255 MILES...2020 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HELENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...16.7 N...42.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT43 KNHC 152040 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 500 PM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006 HELENE IS DEFINITELY STRENGTHENING AT THIS TIME AND IS VERY NEAR HURRICANE STATUS. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. THE OUTFLOW IS WELL-ESTABLISHED AND IS MOST IMPRESSIVE TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT HELENE WILL CONTINUE IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND WILL BE MOVING OVER WARMER WATERS...ACCORDING TO BUOY DATA NEARBY. THERE ARE NO OTHER APPARENT CONDITIONS THAT COULD HALT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES...BACK AT THE EARLIER SPEED OF 13 KNOTS...AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WILL LIKELY ERODE THE RIDGE. THE EXPECTED STEERING PATTERN WILL FORCE HELENE TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS IS THE GENERAL SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE BUT MODELS VARY IN HOW FAR WEST THEY BRING HELENE DEPENDING ON EACH MODEL'S FORECAST REPRESENTATION OF THE RIDGE. NEVERTHELESS...NO MODEL BRINGS HELENE PAST 60W LONGITUDE IN FIVE DAYS IN THE LATEST MORNING RUN...AND IN FACT...MOST OF THEM TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/2100Z 16.7N 42.8W 60 KT 12HR VT 16/0600Z 17.7N 44.5W 70 KT 24HR VT 16/1800Z 18.6N 46.0W 75 KT 36HR VT 17/0600Z 19.5N 47.5W 85 KT 48HR VT 17/1800Z 20.5N 49.0W 95 KT 72HR VT 18/1800Z 22.0N 51.0W 100 KT 96HR VT 19/1800Z 24.0N 54.0W 95 KT 120HR VT 20/1800Z 26.0N 56.5W 90 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT23 KNHC 152040 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 2100 UTC FRI SEP 15 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 42.8W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT.......100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 180SE 180SW 225NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 42.8W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 42.2W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.7N 44.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.6N 46.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.5N 47.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 75SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.5N 49.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 75SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 22.0N 51.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 75SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 24.0N 54.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 26.0N 56.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 42.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT22 KNHC 152042 *** TCMAT2 HURRICANE GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 2100 UTC FRI SEP 15 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 53.5W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..160NE 160SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 53.5W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 53.5W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 31.7N 53.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 32.6N 52.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 90SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 33.6N 52.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 90SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 35.5N 50.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 125SE 100SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 41.0N 41.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 125SE 100SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 43.0N 26.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.1N 53.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN ** WTNT42 KNHC 152042 *** TCDAT2 HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 500 PM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006 DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...CONVECTION HAS RE-DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF GORDON AND A RAGGED EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME EVIDENT IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. DESPITE THE CURRENT APPEARANCE...DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE LOWERED A BIT FROM THIS MORNING AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 80 KT. GORDON IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN ENCOUNTERING COOLER WATERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWING THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS. THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT DAYS 3 AND 4 AS GORDON BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. GORDON HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE LAST 6 HOURS OR SO...EMBEDDED IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. THE GFS...GFDL...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE SHIFTED THEIR TRACKS FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST AND MUCH SLOWER FROM THE PREVIOUS RUNS DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK STEERING FLOW. A DEEP- LAYER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING OFF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. ONCE THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH REACHES GORDON...IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. BY DAY 5...GORDON IS FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED INTO A LARGE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/2100Z 31.1N 53.5W 80 KT 12HR VT 16/0600Z 31.7N 53.4W 70 KT 24HR VT 16/1800Z 32.6N 52.7W 60 KT 36HR VT 17/0600Z 33.6N 52.0W 55 KT 48HR VT 17/1800Z 35.5N 50.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 18/1800Z 41.0N 41.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 19/1800Z 43.0N 26.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 20/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN ** WTCA43 TJSJ 152046 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL HELENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 14 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL082006 500 PM AST VIERNES 15 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...HELENE ACERCANDOSE A SER HURACAN...NO AMENAZA TIERRA... A LAS 500 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL HELENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 16.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 42.8 OESTE O COMO A 1255 MILLAS...2020 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO. HELENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH... 24 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 70 MPH...110 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. HELENE PUDEIRA CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN ESTA NOCHE O EL SABADO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EXTIENDEN HACUA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 992 MILIBARAS...29.29 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 PM AST...16.7 NORTE...42.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...70 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...992 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADO AVILA ** WTNT32 KNHC 152046 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 500 PM AST FRI SEP 15 2006 ...HURRICANE GORDON NEARLY STATIONARY... AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.5 WEST OR ABOUT 670 MILES... 1075 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA. GORDON IS NEARLY STATIONARY AND A VERY SLOW NORTHWARD OR NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GORDON IS NOW A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR- SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...31.1 N...53.5 W. MOVEMENT... STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN ** WTPN31 PGTW 152100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 024 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 151800Z --- NEAR 24.1N 123.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 24.1N 123.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 26.2N 124.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 28.6N 125.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 31.3N 127.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 20 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 34.8N 129.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 25 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 42.7N 137.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 152100Z POSITION NEAR 24.6N 124.0E. TYPHOON (TY) 14W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z.// ** WTPZ43 KNHC 152050 *** TCDEP3 HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 200 PM PDT FRI SEP 15 2006 REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT LANE HAS BECOME A HURRICANE. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED THE PRESSURE FELL FROM 989 TO 985 MB IN ABOUT 90 MIN...ALONG WITH MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 76 KT IN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL. THE EYE...WHICH IS MAKING OCCASIONAL APPEARANCES IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...IS 8-9 N MI WIDE. BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 70 KT. THIS SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KT FROM TAFB AND 65 KT FROM SAB. LANE HAS TURNED RIGHT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 340/8. THIS TURN WAS NOT WELL FORECAST BY THE PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. LANE REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND IS MOVING TOWARD A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE U. S. TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD IN THE NEXT 72 HR AND ALLOW THE MEXICAN RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD. THIS WOULD LEAVE LANE IN AN AREA OF LIGHT FLOW NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED AROUND A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR 36 HR...THEN DIVERGES BETWEEN A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND CONTINUED MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE GFDL IS TO THE RIGHT OF AND FASTER THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE... BRINGING THE CENTER TO THE MEXICAN COAST IN 30 HR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS BETWEEN THE GFDL AND THE OTHER LARGE-SCALE AND CONSENSUS MODELS...BRINGING LANE INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH GRADUAL DECELERATION. THE NEW TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND CALLS FOR LANDFALL ON THE MEXICAN MAINLAND IN 60-72 HR. HOWEVER...ANY ADDITIONAL MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK ALONG THE LINES OF THE GFDL WOULD BRING THE CENTER TO THE COAST EARLIER. IF LANE WERE WELL AWAY FROM LAND...IT WOULD LIKELY BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DUE TO LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 30 CELSIUS...AND THE SMALL EYE STRUCTURE. HOWEVER...THE MAIN OUTER BAND IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO...AND THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS A SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE OUTER CIRCULATION OVER LAND. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND THE SMALL EYE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR LAND TO REACH 95 KT IN 36 HR BEFORE INCREASING LAND INTERACTION STOPS INTENSIFICATION. THIS IS STRONGER THAN FORECAST BY SHIPS AND THE GFDL...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDN. ANY MOTION CLOSER TO THE COAST WOULD INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF CIRCULATION ON LAND AND WOULD LIKELY SLOW INTENSIFICATION. THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/2100Z 20.6N 106.3W 70 KT 12HR VT 16/0600Z 21.8N 106.8W 80 KT 24HR VT 16/1800Z 23.1N 107.6W 90 KT 36HR VT 17/0600Z 24.0N 108.3W 95 KT 48HR VT 17/1800Z 24.7N 108.6W 95 KT 72HR VT 18/1800Z 26.0N 108.5W 75 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 19/1800Z 27.0N 108.5W 30 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 20/1800Z 28.5N 108.0W 20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTCA42 TJSJ 152051 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN GORDON ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 20 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL072006 500 PM AST VIERNES 15 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...HURACAN GORDON CASI ESTACIONARIO... A LAS 500 PM AST...2100Z..EL CENTRO DE HURACAN GORDON ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 31.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 53.5 OESTE O COMO A 670 MILLAS...1075 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE BERMUDA. GORDON ESTA CASI ESTACIONARIO Y SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO MUY LENTO AL NORTE O NORTE-NORESTE ESTA NOCHE Y EL SABADO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 90 MPH...150 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. GORDON ES ACTUALMENTE UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA DE HURACANES SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA DEBILITAMIENTO ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 35 MILLAS...55 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 976 MILIBARAS...28.82 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 PM AST...31.1 NORTE...53.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO ESTACIONARIO. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...90 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...976 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR MAINELLI/BEVEN ** WTPQ20 BABJ 152100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 152100 UTC 00HR 24.4N 123.8E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR N 15KM/H P+24HR 29.1N 125.5E 935HPA 50M/S P+48HR 34.7N 130.4E 955HPA 40M/S P+72HR 41.0N 133.3E 975HPA 30M/S= ** WTPH20 RPMM 151800 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 23 AT 1800 15 SEPTEMBER TYPHOON (SHANSHAN)(0614) WAS LOCATED BASED ON STELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO FOUR POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT EIGHT EAST MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX THREE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ONE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 161800 TWO SEVEN POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT FOUR EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPN31 PHNC 152200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 13E (LANE) WARNING NR 009 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 13E 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 151800Z --- NEAR 20.6N 106.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 106.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 21.8N 106.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 23.1N 107.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 24.0N 108.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 24.7N 108.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 26.0N 108.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 27.0N 108.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 28.5N 108.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 152200Z POSITION NEAR 21.0N 106.5W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 22 FEET. AT 151800Z HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED 148 NM NW OF MANZANILLO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160400Z, 161000Z, 161600Z AND 162200Z.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 152100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 152100UTC 24.4N 124.0E GOOD MOVE N 08KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 100KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 162100UTC 28.2N 126.9E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 13KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 100KT 45HF 171800UTC 33.6N 130.4E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 17KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 69HF 181800UTC 38.0N 132.6E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 11KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 152100 *** WARNING 152100. WARNING VALID 162100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 925 HPA AT 24.4N 124.0E OKINAWA MOVING NORTH 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160900UTC AT 26.0N 125.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 162100UTC AT 28.2N 126.9E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPH RPLL 151800 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 23 AT 1800 15 SEPTEMBER TYPHOON(SHANSHAN) (0613) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO FOUR POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT EIGHT EAST MVNG NORTH NORTHEAST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTMD CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX THREE HECTOPASCAL MAX WNDS FOUR ONE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITION AT 161800 TWO SEVEN POINT FIVE NROTH ONE TWO SIX POINT FOUR EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTPQ20 BABJ 152200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 152200 UTC 00HR 24.5N 123.9E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR N 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 152245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 152100 UTC, TYPHOON SHANSHAN (0613) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (24.5 N) ONE TWO THREE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (123.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 95 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 162100 UTC TWO EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (28.8 N) ONE TWO SIX POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (126.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 172100 UTC THREE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (35.2 N) ONE TWO NINE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (129.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 182100 UTC FOUR ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (40.8 N) ONE THREE ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (131.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 152300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 152300 UTC 00HR 24.7N 124.0E 935HPA 50M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NNE 20KM/H= ** WTPZ33 KNHC 152356 *** TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE LANE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 500 PM PDT FRI SEP 15 2006 ...LANE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE... ...PASSING JUST WEST OF ISLAS MARIAS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN MAINLAND FROM EL ROBLITO TO ALTATA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA ON THE PACIFIC COAST AND SOUTH OF BUENA VISTA ON THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN MAINLAND NORTH OF ALTATA TO HUATABAMPITO....AND FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF BUENA VISTA TO LORETO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT SOUTH OF EL ROBLITO TO MANZANILLO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z......THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LANE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.6 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES... 130 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 240 MILES...390 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO. LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE EYE OF HURRICANE LANE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OF MAINLAND MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES LANE A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND LANE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON SATURDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF LANE. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO AND OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...21.2 N...106.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART