** WTSR20 WSSS 150600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 151200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 151200 UTC 00HR 23.1N 123.8E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR N 20KM/H P+24HR 27.3N 124.9E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 32.8N 128.9E 955HPA 40M/S P+72HR 39.5N 133.6E 970HPA 30M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 151200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 151200UTC 23.1N 123.8E GOOD MOVE N 10KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 100KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 161200UTC 27.0N 125.3E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 11KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 100KT 48HF 171200UTC 32.7N 129.2E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 16KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 72HF 181200UTC 37.4N 132.1E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 13KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 151200 *** WARNING 151200. WARNING VALID 161200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 930 HPA AT 23.1N 123.8E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 25.1N 123.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 27.0N 125.3E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 32.7N 129.2E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 37.4N 132.1E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 151300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 151300 UTC 00HR 23.2N 123.8E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR N 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 151345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 151200 UTC, TYPHOON SHANSHAN (0613) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO THREE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (23.1 N) ONE TWO THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (123.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 95 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 161200 UTC TWO SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (27.7 N) ONE TWO FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (125.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 171200 UTC THREE THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (33.8 N) ONE TWO NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (129.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 181200 UTC THREE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (38.6 N) ONE THREE ONE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (131.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 151400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 151400 UTC 00HR 23.4N 123.8E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR N 20KM/H= ** WTPZ23 KNHC 151434 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 1500 UTC FRI SEP 15 2006 AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA ON THE PACIFIC COAST AND SOUTH OF BUENA VISTA ON THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM CABO CORRIENTES TO LA CRUZ. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM MANZANILLO TO LA CRUZ. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY. AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NORTH OF LA CRUZ TO HUATABAMPITO....AND FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF BUENA VISTA TO LORETO. AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS SOUTH OF MANZANILLO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 106.2W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 90SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 120SE 120SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 106.2W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 106.0W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 20.9N 107.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 22.3N 108.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 23.4N 108.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 24.3N 109.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 25.5N 109.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 26.5N 109.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 28.0N 108.5W...INLAND DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 106.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPZ33 KNHC 151434 *** TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 800 AM PDT FRI SEP 15 2006 ...LANE ALMOST A HURRICANE...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED... AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA ON THE PACIFIC COAST AND SOUTH OF BUENA VISTA ON THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM CABO CORRIENTES TO LA CRUZ. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM MANZANILLO TO LA CRUZ. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY. AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NORTH OF LA CRUZ TO HUATABAMPITO....AND FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF BUENA VISTA TO LORETO. AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS SOUTH OF MANZANILLO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.2 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES...215 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 325 MILES...525 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO. LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF LANE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING THE CENTER VERY NEAR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO WITHIN THE WATCH AND WARNING AREAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND LANE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE LANE THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF LANE. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...19.7 N...106.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTNT33 KNHC 151434 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 15 2006 ...HELENE A LITTLE STRONGER...FORECAST TO REMAIN OUT TO SEA... AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.4 WEST OR ABOUT 1355 MILES...2180 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND HELENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...15.8 N...41.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT23 KNHC 151435 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1500 UTC FRI SEP 15 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 41.4W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 45SE 20SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 41.4W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 40.9W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.6N 43.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 75SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.8N 45.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 75SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.7N 46.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 75SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.5N 48.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 75SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.5N 50.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 75SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 23.5N 53.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 26.0N 55.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 41.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT33 KNHC 151436 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 15 2006 ...HELENE A LITTLE STRONGER...FORECAST TO REMAIN OUT TO SEA... AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.4 WEST OR ABOUT 1355 MILES...2180 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND HELENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...15.8 N...41.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT22 KNHC 151445 *** TCMAT2 HURRICANE GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1500 UTC FRI SEP 15 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 53.3W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..160NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 53.3W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 53.3W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 31.8N 52.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 32.5N 52.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 33.5N 51.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 35.3N 49.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 150SE 120SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 39.5N 42.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 60SE 60SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 150SE 120SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 42.5N 31.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 45.0N 20.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.1N 53.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN ** WTNT42 KNHC 151446 *** TCDAT2 HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006 GORDON HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING. DESPITE THE WEAKENING TREND...THE OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHWEST AS A RESULT OF THE SHEAR. DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE 4.0 OR 65 KT WHILE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 5.0 OR 90 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 85 KT...AND IS A BLEND OF THE ABOVE ESTIMATES. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/6. THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF GORDON HAS WEAKENED AND GORDON IS NOW IN AN AREA OF VERY LITTLE STEERING CURRENTS. GORDON'S FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 5 KT TO THE NORTHEAST OR NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE TRACK IS FORECAST TO BE A STAIR-STEP TO THE LEFT...WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW...AND THEN EVENTUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE TO THE RIGHT AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THIS REASONING FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE...AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AND SLOWER OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE EARLIER PERIODS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS GORDON AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER SSTS FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE INTENSITY IS THEN LEVELED OFF AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT GORDON WILL REMAIN A FAIRLY STRONG CYCLONE AS IT TRANSITIONS TO EXTRATROPICAL STATUS. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED FROM A 0922 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/1500Z 31.1N 53.3W 85 KT 12HR VT 16/0000Z 31.8N 52.7W 75 KT 24HR VT 16/1200Z 32.5N 52.3W 65 KT 36HR VT 17/0000Z 33.5N 51.5W 60 KT 48HR VT 17/1200Z 35.3N 49.7W 55 KT 72HR VT 18/1200Z 39.5N 42.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 19/1200Z 42.5N 31.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 20/1200Z 45.0N 20.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN ** WTNT32 KNHC 151448 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 15 2006 ...GORDON CONTINUES TO WEAKEN BUT REMAINS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE... AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.3 WEST OR ABOUT 680 MILES... 1095 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA. GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A CONTINUED DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GORDON REMAINS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR- SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...31.1 N...53.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN ** WTCA43 TJSJ 151449 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL HELENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 13 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 AM AST VIERNES 15 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...HELENE UN POCO MAS FUERTE...SE PRONOSTICA QUE PERMANECERA EN EL OCEANO... A LAS 1100 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL HELENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 15.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 41.4 OESTE O COMO A 1355 MILLAS...2180 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO. HELENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH... 20 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA O DOS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 60 MPH...95 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS Y HELENE PUDIERA CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN EL SABADO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EXTIENDEN HACUA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1000 MILIBARAS...29.53 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 AM AST...15.8 NORTE...41.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1000 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADO AVILA ** WTPZ43 KNHC 151456 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 800 AM PDT FRI SEP 15 2006 LANE IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THERE IS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C AND A LARGE OUTER BAND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. AN AMSU OVERPASS AT 1226 UTC SUGGESTS THAT A SMALL EYE MAY BE PRESENT UNDER THE CDO. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB...55 KT FROM SAB...AND 35 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT...AND THERE IS A CHANCE LANE IS ALREADY A HURRICANE. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS CURRENTLY GOOD TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH...AND FAIR TO THE EAST AND WEST. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE LANE AROUND 18Z. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/9...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND SLOWER THAN EARLIER. LANE IS SOUTHWEST OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND IS MOVING TOWARD A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE U. S. TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD IN THE NEXT 72 HR AND ALLOW THE MEXICAN RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD. THIS WOULD LEAVE LANE IN AN AREA OF LIGHT FLOW NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED AROUND A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR 36-48 HR...THEN STARTS TO DIVERGE BETWEEN A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND CONTINUED MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL SLOW THE FORWARD SPEED DOWN TO 3 KT AFTER 48 HR IN RESPONSE TO THE GUIDANCE SPREAD AND THE BUILDING RIDGE. THE TRACK IS SLIGHTLY EAST OF AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK... BRINGING THE CENTER TO THE MAINLAND COAST OF MEXICO BY 72 HR. LANE IS CURRENTLY IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER 30C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING AS LONG AS THE CIRCULATION IS NOT TOO TANGLES UP WITH LAND. INDEED...THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX OF THE SHIPS MODEL HAS A 43 PRESENT CHANCE OF RAPID STRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK BRINGS LANE UP THE CENTER OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH 72 HR...SO THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR MORE STRENGTHENING THROUGH 48 HR AND LESS WEAKENING THEREAFTER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. THERE IS TWO SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST. THE FIRST IS THAT LANE HAS A SMALL CENTRAL CORE...AND COULD BOTH STRENGTHEN AND WEAKEN FASTER THEN EXPECTED. THE SECOND IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LAND INTERACTION...AS THE INTENSITY COULD WELL BE LESS THAN FORECAST IF LANE VEERS OFF THE FORECAST TRACK. IF LANE FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR CABO CORRIENTES. HOWEVER...A DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS ONSHORE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/1500Z 19.7N 106.2W 60 KT 12HR VT 16/0000Z 20.9N 107.0W 70 KT 24HR VT 16/1200Z 22.3N 108.0W 80 KT 36HR VT 17/0000Z 23.4N 108.8W 85 KT 48HR VT 17/1200Z 24.3N 109.0W 85 KT 72HR VT 18/1200Z 25.5N 109.0W 85 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 19/1200Z 26.5N 109.0W 45 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 20/1200Z 28.0N 108.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTNT43 KNHC 151459 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006 GOES AND METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS MORE TYPICAL OF A TROPICAL STORM. THE CONVECTION IS MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER...AND THERE IS A WELL-DEFINED CYCLONICALLY CURVED BAND TO THE SOUTH WITH NUMEROUS RAINBANDS ALL AROUND. THE OUTFLOW IS PRIMARILY DEFINED TO THE SOUTH AND TO THE WEST. IN FACT...T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED AND SUPPORT INTENSITIES OF AT LEAST 50 KNOTS. I AM ONLY GOING TO MENTION THE WELL-KNOWN PARAMETERS THAT FAVOR INTENSIFICATION...LOW SHEAR AND WARM OCEAN...AND THESE TWO ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AND HELENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT A DAY. HELENE APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE BIT AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. HELENE IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF A RIDGE...BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A LARGE TROUGH OR WEAKNESS WHICH IS FORECAST TO COVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THERE IS NOT MUCH MORE TO ADD TO THE TRACK FORECAST EXCEPT THAT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE SINCE MOST OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE... GFDL/GFS/UK/ECMWF MODELS AND SO FORTH... UNANIMOUSLY TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD OVER OPEN WATER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/1500Z 15.8N 41.4W 50 KT 12HR VT 16/0000Z 16.6N 43.1W 60 KT 24HR VT 16/1200Z 17.8N 45.0W 65 KT 36HR VT 17/0000Z 18.7N 46.5W 70 KT 48HR VT 17/1200Z 19.5N 48.0W 75 KT 72HR VT 18/1200Z 21.5N 50.5W 85 KT 96HR VT 19/1200Z 23.5N 53.0W 85 KT 120HR VT 20/1200Z 26.0N 55.0W 85 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTCA42 TJSJ 151506 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN GORDON ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 19 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 AM AST VIERNES 15 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...GORDON CONTINUA DEBILITANDOSE PERO SIGUE SIENDO UN HURACAN DE CATEGORIA DOS... A LAS 1100 AM AST...1500Z..EL CENTRO DE HURACAN GORDON ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 31.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 53.3 OESTE O COMO A 680 MILLAS...1095 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE BERMUDA. GORDON SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH...11 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS CON UNA CONTINUACION DE LA DISMINUCION EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 100 MPH...160 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. GORDON CONTINUA COMO UN HURACAN CATEGORIA DOS EN LA ESCALA DE HURACANES SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA DEBILITAMIENTO ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 35 MILLAS...55 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 973 MILIBARAS...28.73 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 AM AST...31.1 NORTE...53.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...100 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...973 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR MAINELLI/BEVEN ** WTPQ20 BABJ 151500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 151500 UTC 00HR 23.6N 123.8E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR N 20KM/H= ** WTPH RPMM 151500 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 22 AT 1200 15 SEPTEMBER TYPHOON (SHANSHAN) (0613) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO THREE POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT NINE EAST MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE ZEREO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX THREE HECTOPAS CALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ONE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 161200 TWO SEVEN POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT FOUR EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA ** WTPQ20 RJTD 151500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 151500UTC 23.6N 123.7E GOOD MOVE N 11KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 100KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 161500UTC 27.3N 125.7E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 10KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 100KT 45HF 171200UTC 32.7N 129.2E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 16KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 69HF 181200UTC 37.4N 132.1E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 13KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 151500 *** WARNING 151500. WARNING VALID 161500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 930 HPA AT 23.6N 123.7E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTH 11 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160300UTC AT 25.6N 124.4E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 161500UTC AT 27.3N 125.7E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPH20 RPMM 151200 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 22 AT 1200 15 SEPTEMBER TYPHOON(SHANSHAN)(0613) WS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO THREE POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT NINE EST MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX THREE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ONE MTERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 161200 TWO SEVEN POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT FOUR EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 151600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 151600 UTC 00HR 23.7N 123.8E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR N 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 151645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 151500 UTC, TYPHOON SHANSHAN (0613) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (23.5 N) ONE TWO THREE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (123.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 95 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 161500 UTC TWO SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (27.8 N) ONE TWO FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (125.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 171500 UTC THREE FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (34.0 N) ONE TWO NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (129.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 181500 UTC THREE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (39.6 N) ONE THREE ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (131.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 151700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 151700 UTC 00HR 23.9N 123.8E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR N 20KM/H= ** WTPZ33 KNHC 151749 *** TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM LANE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 1100 AM PDT FRI SEP 15 2006 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTS LANE JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA ON THE PACIFIC COAST AND SOUTH OF BUENA VISTA ON THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM MANZANILLO TO LA CRUZ. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NORTH OF LA CRUZ TO HUATABAMPITO....AND FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF BUENA VISTA TO LORETO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.3 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES...215 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 300 MILES...485 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO. LANE IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF LANE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING THE CENTER VERY NEAR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO WITHIN THE WATCH AND WARNING AREAS. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND LANE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 989 MB...29.20 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF LANE. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...20.2 N...106.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTNT80 EGRR 151751 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 15.09.2006 HURRICANE GORDON ANALYSED POSITION : 31.2N 53.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.09.2006 31.2N 53.6W WEAK 00UTC 16.09.2006 31.8N 53.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.09.2006 33.1N 53.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2006 33.3N 50.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2006 35.0N 50.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2006 36.3N 45.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2006 41.1N 40.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.09.2006 41.7N 33.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 19.09.2006 42.0N 30.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2006 43.4N 23.8W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 20.09.2006 EXTRA-TROPICAL TROPICAL STORM HELENE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.5N 40.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.09.2006 15.5N 40.6W WEAK 00UTC 16.09.2006 16.6N 43.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.09.2006 17.4N 45.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2006 18.2N 46.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2006 19.0N 48.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2006 20.0N 49.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.09.2006 20.9N 50.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2006 21.9N 52.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2006 22.3N 53.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2006 23.1N 54.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.09.2006 23.9N 55.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2006 25.2N 57.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.09.2006 26.8N 58.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.0N 106.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.09.2006 19.0N 106.0W STRONG 00UTC 16.09.2006 20.8N 106.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 16.09.2006 22.5N 107.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2006 23.1N 108.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.09.2006 23.3N 108.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2006 23.4N 108.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 18.09.2006 22.9N 108.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.09.2006 23.1N 108.8W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 19.09.2006 23.4N 109.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2006 24.1N 109.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 15.1N 119.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.09.2006 15.1N 119.6W WEAK 00UTC 16.09.2006 15.1N 120.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.09.2006 14.9N 121.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2006 15.9N 121.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2006 16.8N 122.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2006 17.2N 123.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.09.2006 17.8N 124.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.09.2006 18.1N 124.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2006 18.9N 125.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2006 20.4N 126.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2006 22.8N 127.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.09.2006 24.6N 127.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.09.2006 25.4N 127.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 10.1N 144.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 16.09.2006 10.1N 144.3W WEAK 00UTC 17.09.2006 10.4N 144.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.09.2006 10.6N 145.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2006 9.9N 147.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.09.2006 10.6N 148.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.09.2006 11.5N 150.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2006 12.1N 152.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2006 12.8N 154.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2006 13.0N 156.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2006 13.3N 158.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2006 13.6N 159.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 151751