** WTIN20 DEMS 150610 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 15-09-2006 TRIOPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN(THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC(.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL,SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AND EAST ARABIAN SEA(.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 21 DEG NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPQ20 BABJ 150600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 150600 UTC 00HR 22.1N 123.9E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 180KM P12HR NNW 15KM/H P+24HR 26.5N 124.0E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 32.1N 128.5E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 39.2N 130.8E 970HPA 30M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 150600 *** WARNING 150600. WARNING VALID 160600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 940 HPA AT 22.1N 124.0E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 24.0N 123.4E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 25.8N 124.5E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 31.4N 128.3E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 36.3N 131.4E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 150600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 150600UTC 22.1N 124.0E GOOD MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 160600UTC 25.8N 124.5E 90NM 70% MOVE NNE 10KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT 48HF 170600UTC 31.4N 128.3E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 16KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 72HF 180600UTC 36.3N 131.4E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 13KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 150600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 11 NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN ANALYSIS POSITION 150600UTC 22.1N 124.0E MOVEMENT NNW 6KT PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 160600UTC 26.2N 124.6E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT 48HR POSITION 170600UTC 31.4N 128.1E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT 72HR POSITION 180600UTC 36.9N 131.3E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 150600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.12 FOR TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 150600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE. TY WILL RECURVE WITHIN 24 HOURS FROM 150600 UTC. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 150700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 150700 UTC 00HR 22.2N 123.9E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 180KM P12HR NNW 10KM/H= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 150745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 150600 UTC, TYPHOON SHANSHAN (0613) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO TWO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (22.2 N) ONE TWO THREE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (123.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 95 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160600 UTC TWO SIX POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (26.6 N) ONE TWO FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (125.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170600 UTC THREE TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (32.4 N) ONE TWO EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (128.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180600 UTC THREE SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (37.9 N) ONE THREE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (131.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 150800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 150800 UTC 00HR 22.4N 123.9E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 180KM P12HR N 15KM/H= ** WTPZ33 KNHC 150850 *** TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 200 AM PDT FRI SEP 15 2006 ...LANE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AS IT PARALLELS THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO... ...SEVERAL CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNING REQUIRED... AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH WITH A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AT 200 AM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM EL ROBLITO NORTHWARD TO LA CRUZ. ALSO AT 200 AM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CANCELED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO SOUTHWARD TO LAZARO CARDENAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LA CRUZ. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 200 AM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ TO ALTATA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM BUENA VISTA SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST AND FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.0 WEST OR ABOUT 110 MILES...180 KM...WEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 365 MILES...585 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO. LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...LANE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING THE CENTER OF LANE VERY NEAR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO WITHIN THE WATCH AND WARNING AREAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND LANE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...19.1 N...106.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB ** WTNT22 KNHC 150850 *** TCMAT2 HURRICANE GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 0900 UTC FRI SEP 15 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 53.4W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..160NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 53.4W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 53.8W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 31.4N 53.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 32.1N 52.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 33.0N 51.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 34.7N 50.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 38.5N 43.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 60SE 60SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 150SE 120SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 42.0N 32.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 46.0N 19.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.9N 53.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/KNABB ** WTPZ23 KNHC 150851 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 0900 UTC FRI SEP 15 2006 AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH WITH A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AT 200 AM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM EL ROBLITO NORTHWARD TO LA CRUZ. AT 200 AM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CANCELED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO SOUTHWARD TO LAZARO CARDENAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LA CRUZ. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 200 AM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ TO ALTATA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM BUENA VISTA SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST AND FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 106.0W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 75SE 90SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 120SE 120SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 106.0W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 105.7W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 20.4N 106.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 90SE 90SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 21.9N 107.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 23.2N 108.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 24.5N 109.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 25.5N 109.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 27.0N 109.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 28.0N 109.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 106.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB ** WTNT43 KNHC 150854 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 500 AM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006 HELENE DOES NOT LOOK TOO MUCH DIFFERENT THAN IT DID SIX HOURS AGO...EXCEPT FOR THE DEEP CONVECTION BUBBLING IN SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. PERHAPS SOME CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY INCREASED A LITTLE NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...BUT EVEN THAT SEEMS TO BE ON THE DECREASE AGAIN. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 06Z DVORAK ESTIMATES. HELENE APPEARS TO BE INGESTING SOME DRY AIR...AND IT MIGHT TAKE A WHILE FOR INNER CORE CONVECTION TO BECOME PERSISTENT. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY BELOW ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AND IS ALSO A SLIGHT DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. HELENE IS STILL FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...JUST NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS THE SHIPS AND GFDL ARE SUGGESTING. HELENE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 13 KT ALONG A HEADING BETWEEN 285 AND 290 DEGREES...WITH STEERING PROVIDED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT THE MODELS DIVERGE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY...BOUNDED BY THE NOGAPS ON THE LEFT AND TURNING THE CYCLONE WESTWARD...AND THE GFDL ON THE RIGHT AND RACING HELENE NORTHWARD. THE DISAGREEMENT SEEMS TO STEM FROM HOW EACH MODEL HANDLES A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IF THE NOGAPS IS CORRECT...ENOUGH RIDGING WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THAT TROUGH AND HELENE TO ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN WESTWARD. THE GFDL AND GFS...HOWEVER...FORECAST HELENE TO GAIN ENOUGH LATITUDE BY ROUNDING THE RIDGE SUCH THAT THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL PICK UP HELENE. I AM NOT YET CONFIDENT THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF HELENE WILL BREAK DOWN THAT FAST...SO THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LIES ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND IT IS ESSENTIALLY IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0900Z 15.0N 40.3W 40 KT 12HR VT 15/1800Z 15.9N 42.1W 45 KT 24HR VT 16/0600Z 17.0N 44.2W 50 KT 36HR VT 16/1800Z 18.0N 46.0W 55 KT 48HR VT 17/0600Z 19.0N 47.4W 65 KT 72HR VT 18/0600Z 21.0N 50.0W 75 KT 96HR VT 19/0600Z 23.0N 52.5W 80 KT 120HR VT 20/0600Z 24.5N 54.5W 85 KT $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTNT32 KNHC 150855 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 500 AM AST FRI SEP 15 2006 ...GORDON NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.4 WEST OR ABOUT 680 MILES... 1090 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA. GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GORDON IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...30.9 N...53.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/KNABB ** WTNT33 KNHC 150855 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 500 AM AST FRI SEP 15 2006 ...HELENE STILL NOT YET STRENGTHENING... AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1060 MILES...1710 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A CONTINUED MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...15.0 N...40.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTNT23 KNHC 150855 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 0900 UTC FRI SEP 15 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 40.3W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 45SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 40.3W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 39.7W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.9N 42.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 45SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.0N 44.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 75SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.0N 46.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 75SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.0N 47.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 75SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.0N 50.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 75SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 23.0N 52.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 24.5N 54.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 40.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTPZ43 KNHC 150858 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 200 AM PDT FRI SEP 15 2006 LANE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF GRADUAL STRENGTHENING WITH A BAND OF VERY STRONG CONVECTION NOW WRAPPING TWO-THIRDS OF THE WAY AROUND THE ESTIMATED CENTER. ADDITIONALLY...TWO EARLIER MICROWAVE PASSES INDICATE THE EARLY STAGES OF A BANDING EYE FEATURE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE CURRENTLY 45 KT AND 55 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT IS BASED ON THE HIGHER OF THESE TWO ESTIMATES GIVEN THE APPARENT BANDING EYE IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY. LOCATING THE CENTER OF LANE WITH CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO SAY THE LEAST. HOWEVER...THE LAST TWO MICROWAVE PASSES YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 310/12. LANE IS BEING STEERED AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER MEXICO. AS A RESULT...A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO TAKING LANE INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THEREAFTER...LANE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST AS IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. WHILE MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON THIS LARGE-SCALE PATTERN...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH LAND INTERACTION WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE PLACE. IF LANE INTERACTS WITH LAND MORE THAN ANTICIPATED...A WEAKER CYCLONE WOULD LIKELY NOT TURN NORTHEASTWARD. CONVERSELY...IF LANE REMAINS VERTICALLY COHERENT...IT WOULD TEND TO BE STEERED NORTHEASTWARD BY THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED EASTWARD AND NOW SHOWS A TRACK INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A SUBTLE TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS INTRODUCED AT DAY 5 TAKING THE CYCLONE INLAND OVER MAINLAND MEXICO. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS RIDDLED WITH UNCERTAINTY. IN THE SHORT-TERM...LANE IS EXPECTED TO PARALLEL THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. WHILE THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...SUCH A CLOSE APPROACH TO LAND MAKES ASSESSING POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTIONS DIFFICULT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES LANE WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO ALLOW IT TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING. ACCORDINGLY... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS LANE BECOMING A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND 36 HOURS...LANE IS EXPECTED TO BE THREADING THE NEEDLE BETWEEN THE BAJA PENINSULA AND MAINLAND MEXICO. SINCE A TRACK SLIGHTLY EAST OR WEST OF THE CURRENT FORECAST WOULD CAUSE LAND INTERACTION...SLOW WEAKENING IS SHOWN UNTIL THE CYCLONE MOVES INLAND OVER MAINLAND MEXICO BY DAY 4...AT WHICH TIME RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. FINALLY...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT LANE IS A RELATIVELY SMALL SYSTEM...AND RAPID INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS...BOTH UP AND DOWN...ARE POSSIBLE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0900Z 19.1N 106.0W 55 KT 12HR VT 15/1800Z 20.4N 106.8W 65 KT 24HR VT 16/0600Z 21.9N 107.8W 75 KT 36HR VT 16/1800Z 23.2N 108.9W 80 KT 48HR VT 17/0600Z 24.5N 109.4W 75 KT 72HR VT 18/0600Z 25.5N 109.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 19/0600Z 27.0N 109.5W 55 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 20/0600Z 28.0N 109.0W 40 KT...INLAND $$ FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB ** WTNT42 KNHC 150859 *** TCDAT2 HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 500 AM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT GORDON HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN...WITH AN EROSION OF THE COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE AND THE EYE BECOMING SMALLER AND LESS DISTINCT. DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 5.0...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 95 KT. GORDON SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT ENCOUNTERS PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SSTS. AFTER 2-3 DAYS...THE GFDL AND ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...EXCEPT THE NOGAPS...SHOW GORDON BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESS GRADIENT. ADDITIONALLY...THE GFS...ECMWF...CANADIAN AND UMKET MODELS SUGGEST THAT GORDON WILL REMAIN A ROBUST CYCLONE AFTER IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...AND PERHAPS EVEN INTENSIFY...AS IT MOVES INTO THE FAVORABLE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF THE POLAR JET. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THIS...AND KEEPS THE INTENSITY AT 50 KT AFTER GORDON BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/08...TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IN SPITE OF THE MORE EASTERLY INITAL MOTION...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS...WITH THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE AND THE NOGAPS TO THE RIGHT. THE MORE POLEWARD MOTION IN THE GLOBAL MODELS IS DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF GORDON WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THAT MOVES EAST FROM THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. BY 72 HOURS...ALL THE GUIDANCE SHOWS AN ACCELERATION TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AS GORDON BECOMES EXTRATROIPICAL. THE OFFICAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND TRENDS TOWARD THE SPEED OF THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0900Z 30.9N 53.4W 95 KT 12HR VT 15/1800Z 31.4N 53.1W 90 KT 24HR VT 16/0600Z 32.1N 52.5W 80 KT 36HR VT 16/1800Z 33.0N 51.9W 70 KT 48HR VT 17/0600Z 34.7N 50.5W 60 KT 72HR VT 18/0600Z 38.5N 43.5W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 19/0600Z 42.0N 32.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 20/0600Z 46.0N 19.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/KNABB ** WTCA43 TJSJ 150907 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL HELENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 12 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL082006 500 AM AST VIERNES 15 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...HELENE TODAVIA NO SE ESTA FORTALECIENDO... A LAS 500 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL HELENE ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 15.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 40.3 OESTE O COMO A 1060 MILLAS...1710 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE SUR. HELENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. 24 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA VELOCIDAD REDUCIDA Y QUE HELENE CONTINUE EN ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EXTIENDEN HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KM FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL SE ESTIMADA ES DE 1003 MILIBARAS...29.62 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 AM EDT...15.0 NORTE...40.3 OESTE. SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE CERCA DE 15 MPH. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1003 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 AM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADO KNABB ** WTPQ20 BABJ 150900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 150900 UTC 00HR 22.6N 123.9E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 180KM P12HR N 20KM/H P+24HR 27.0N 124.7E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 32.4N 129.1E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 38.6N 132.7E 970HPA 30M/S= ** WTJP31 RJTD 150900 *** WARNING 150900. WARNING VALID 160900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 940 HPA AT 22.6N 124.0E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTH 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 152100UTC AT 24.3N 123.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160900UTC AT 26.2N 124.7E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 150900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 150900UTC 22.6N 124.0E GOOD MOVE N 09KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 160900UTC 26.2N 124.7E 90NM 70% MOVE NNE 10KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT 45HF 170600UTC 31.4N 128.3E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 16KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 69HF 180600UTC 36.3N 131.4E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 13KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 151000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 151000 UTC 00HR 22.8N 123.9E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 180KM P12HR N 20KM/H= ** WTPH RPMM 150600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 21 AT 0600 15 SEPTEMBER TYPHOON (SHANSHAN) (0613) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO TWO POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT ZERO EAST MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE ZEREO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX THREE HECTOPAS CALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ONE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS OER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 160600 TWO FIVE POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT TWO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA ** WTPQ20 VHHH 151045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 150900 UTC, TYPHOON SHANSHAN (0613) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (22.7 N) ONE TWO THREE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (123.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 95 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160900 UTC TWO SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (27.4 N) ONE TWO FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (125.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170900 UTC THREE THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (33.0 N) ONE TWO NINE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (129.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180900 UTC THREE EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (38.1 N) ONE THREE ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (130.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 151100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 151100 UTC 00HR 22.9N 123.9E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 180KM P12HR N 15KM/H= ** WTPZ33 KNHC 151145 *** TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM LANE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 500 AM PDT FRI SEP 15 2006 ...CORE OF LANE MOVING PARALLEL TO THE MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN MANZANILLO AND CABO CORRIENTES... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS ISLANDS OF MEXICO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LA CRUZ. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ TO ALTATA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM BUENA VISTA SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST AND FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.1 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES...165 KM...WEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 350 MILES...565 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO. LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...LANE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING THE CENTER OF LANE VERY NEAR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO WITHIN THE WATCH AND WARNING AREAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND LANE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...19.3 N...106.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN