** WTSR20 WSSS 141800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 150000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 150000 UTC 00HR 21.4N 124.2E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 180KM P12HR NW 15KM/H P+24HR 25.4N 123.4E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 31.2N 127.2E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 38.3N 131.0E 965HPA 30M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 150000 *** WARNING 150000. WARNING VALID 160000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 945 HPA AT 21.6N 124.3E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTH 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 23.6N 123.6E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 25.7N 123.8E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 31.3N 127.8E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 37.0N 132.0E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 150000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 150000UTC 21.6N 124.3E GOOD MOVE N 08KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 160000UTC 25.7N 123.8E 90NM 70% MOVE N 10KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 48HF 170000UTC 31.3N 127.8E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 16KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 72HF 180000UTC 37.0N 132.0E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 16KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 150000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.11 FOR TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 150000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE. TY WILL RECURVE WITHIN 24 HOURS FROM 150000 UTC. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 150100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 150100 UTC 00HR 21.6N 124.1E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 180KM P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 150145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 150000 UTC, TYPHOON SHANSHAN (0613) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (21.4 N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (124.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 97 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160000 UTC TWO FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (25.0 N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (124.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 97 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170000 UTC TWO NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (29.3 N) ONE TWO SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (126.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 97 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180000 UTC THREE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (34.5 N) ONE TWO NINE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (129.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 150200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 150200 UTC 00HR 21.6N 124.1E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 180KM P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTNT22 KNHC 150229 *** TCMAT2 HURRICANE GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 0300 UTC FRI SEP 15 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 54.3W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..160NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 54.3W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 54.6W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 31.4N 53.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 32.1N 52.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 32.9N 51.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 34.0N 50.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 37.5N 46.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 41.5N 35.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 43.0N 21.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N 54.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTNT42 KNHC 150229 *** TCDAT2 HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 PM EDT THU SEP 14 2006 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 045/08 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING. GORDON HAS SLOWED DOWN SLIGHTLY AS ADVERTISED BY THE MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS UNTIL A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC AND GRADUALLY PICKS UP THE CYCLONE AND ACCELERATES IT TO THE NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY TO THE EAST AS A SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THEN A LITTLE FASTER AFTER THAT WHICH IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY...GORDON STILL HAS A CLASSIC WELL-DEFINED EYE IN MICROWAVE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY OF 100 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90 TO 102 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST BASICALLY REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH ONLY SLOW WEAKENING EXPECTED AS GORDON MOVES OVER GRADUALLY COOLER WATERS FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS BEFORE ENCOUNTERING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WATER AFTER THAT. HOWEVER...BY DAYS 4 AND 5...GORDON WILL BE GETTING A SHOT OF BAROCLINIC ENERGY FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH... WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE CYCLONE AS A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...POSSIBLY EVEN A STORM SYSTEM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0300Z 30.6N 54.3W 100 KT 12HR VT 15/1200Z 31.4N 53.5W 90 KT 24HR VT 16/0000Z 32.1N 52.7W 80 KT 36HR VT 16/1200Z 32.9N 51.9W 70 KT 48HR VT 17/0000Z 34.0N 50.8W 60 KT 72HR VT 18/0000Z 37.5N 46.0W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 19/0000Z 41.5N 35.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 20/0000Z 43.0N 21.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTNT32 KNHC 150232 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 PM AST THU SEP 14 2006 ...GORDON STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC... AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.3 WEST OR ABOUT 630 MILES... 1015 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA. GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GORDON REMAINS A MAJOR CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...30.6 N...54.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPZ23 KNHC 150236 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 0300 UTC FRI SEP 15 2006 AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BUENA VISTA SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST...AND FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWARD TO EL ROBLITO...INCLUDING THE ISLAS MARIAS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES. INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 105.3W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 120SE 120SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 120SE 120SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 105.3W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 104.9W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 19.2N 106.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 20.6N 107.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 21.8N 108.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 22.8N 109.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 24.0N 110.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 25.0N 110.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 26.5N 110.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 105.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART ** WTPZ33 KNHC 150243 *** TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 800 PM PDT THU SEP 14 2006 ...LANE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE... AT 800 PM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BUENA VISTA SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST...AND FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWARD TO EL ROBLITO...INCLUDING THE ISLAS MARIAS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES. INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.3 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES...125 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 430 MILES...690 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO. LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LANE WOULD REMAIN OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT. HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND LANE IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...18.4 N...105.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART ** WTNT43 KNHC 150250 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 PM EDT THU SEP 14 2006 THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/13...BASED PRIMARILY ON MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS. THE 18Z NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS LESS SPREAD NOW THAN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...WITH THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS HAVING SHIFTED MORE WESTWARD AND CLOSER TO THE UKMET 12Z SOLUTION. THE NEW 18Z UKMET RUN IS ALSO MUCH SLOWER NOW AND VERY SIMILAR TO THE 18Z NOGAPS MODEL RUN. THE KEY PLAYER DURING THE FORECAST CYCLE IS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THAT IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD AND CUTOFF INTO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS ARE NOW WEAKENING THE LOW AND LIFTING IT OUT SOONER THAN THE GFS...ECMWF... GFDL...AND CANADIAN MODELS. GIVEN THAT THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO BE FAST ZONAL FLOW...LESS AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH SEEMS MORE REASONABLE...WHICH SHOULD DECREASE THE EFFECT OF ANY NORTHWARD STEERING FLOW ON THE WAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE RESULT IS THAT THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY 96 AND 120 HOURS AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS SLOWLY WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF HELENE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE GUNA AND CONU MODEL CONSENSUS FORECAST TRACKS. HELENE HAS BEEN HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME MAINTAINING CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION FOR MORE THAN A JUST FEW HOURS AT A TIME DUE TO A LARGE SLUG OF DRY AIR PUNCHING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS OF THE CYCLONE. SINCE THIS PATTERN SEEMS TO BE UNLIKELY TO CHANGE ANY TIME SOON...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL. AFTER THAT... A SLIGHTLY FASTER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AS PER THE GFDL AND FSU MODELS...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE SINCE HELENE WILL BE MOVING OVER 28C AND WARMER SSTS AND ALSO BE UNDERNEATH A VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REGIME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0300Z 14.5N 38.9W 40 KT 12HR VT 15/1200Z 15.3N 40.8W 45 KT 24HR VT 16/0000Z 16.4N 43.2W 50 KT 36HR VT 16/1200Z 17.5N 45.2W 60 KT 48HR VT 17/0000Z 18.5N 46.7W 70 KT 72HR VT 18/0000Z 20.3N 49.4W 80 KT 96HR VT 19/0000Z 22.4N 51.9W 90 KT 120HR VT 20/0000Z 24.5N 54.0W 90 KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTNT23 KNHC 150250 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 0300 UTC FRI SEP 15 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 38.9W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 45SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 38.9W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 38.3W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.3N 40.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 45SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.4N 43.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.5N 45.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 50NW. 34 KT...125NE 75SE 60SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.5N 46.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 75SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 20.3N 49.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 75SW 125NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 22.4N 51.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 24.5N 54.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 38.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTNT33 KNHC 150253 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 PM AST THU SEP 14 2006 ...HELENE CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN... AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.9 WEST OR ABOUT 970 MILES...1560 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...14.5 N...38.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPZ43 KNHC 150302 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 800 PM PDT THU SEP 14 2006 A 0024Z WINDSAT MICROWAVE OVERPASS REVEALED A DEVELOPING BANDING EYE FEATURE...AND THAT LANE HAS BEEN MOVING MORE NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 55 AND 45 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE SHIPS...WHICH DOES NOT WEAKEN LANE AS RAPIDLY AS THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE INDICATES. CONDITIONS REMAIN RIPE FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...IF LAND INTERACTION DOES NOT OCCUR. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 305/5...JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND A BIT SLOWER. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO. A LARGE AMPLITUDE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH SHOULD REINFORCE A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT WILL TURN LANE MORE NORTHWARD...AROUND MID PERIOD. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN ABRUPT NORTHWARD MOTION AND A LANDFALL IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BETWEEN MANZANILLO AND CABO CORRIENTES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS AGAIN BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0300Z 18.4N 105.3W 50 KT 12HR VT 15/1200Z 19.2N 106.3W 65 KT 24HR VT 16/0000Z 20.6N 107.4W 75 KT 36HR VT 16/1200Z 21.8N 108.3W 80 KT 48HR VT 17/0000Z 22.8N 109.3W 85 KT...NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA 72HR VT 18/0000Z 24.0N 110.0W 70 KT...NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA 96HR VT 19/0000Z 25.0N 110.5W 65 KT...NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA 120HR VT 20/0000Z 26.5N 110.5W 55 KT...OVER WATER $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART ** WTCA43 TJSJ 150309 CCA *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL HELENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 11 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 PM AST JUEVES 14 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...HELENE CONTINUA AL OESTE NOROESTE SOBRE EL ESTE DEL ATLANTICO TROPICAL... A LAS 1100PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL HELENE ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 14.5 NORTE... LONGITUD 38.9 OESTE O COMO A 970 MILLAS...1560 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE SUR. HELENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. 26 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA CONTINUE EN ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EXTIENDEN HASTA 105 MILLAS... 165 KM FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL SE ESTIMADA ES DE 1003 MILIBARAS...29.62 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100PM EDT...14.5 NORTE...38.9 OESTE. SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE CERCA DE 15 MPH. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1003 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 AM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADO STEWART ** WTPH RPLL 150000 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 20 AT 0000 15 SEPTEMBER TYPHOON (SHANSHAN) (0613) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 21.5N 124.2E MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST AT 03MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 300KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 41MPS NEAR CENTER 33MPS WITHIN 100KMS RADIUS 13MPS WITHIN 300KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 160000 23.8N 123.5E AT 170000 27.0N 125.0E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTPH20 RPMM 150000 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 20 AT 0000 15 SEPTEMBER TYPHOON (SHANSHAN) (0613 WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ONE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT TWO EAST MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX THREE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ONE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 160000 TWO THREE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT FIVE EAST AT 170000 TWO SEVEN POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 150300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 150300 UTC 00HR 21.7N 124.0E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 180KM P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 150300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 150300UTC 21.7N 124.0E GOOD MOVE NW 06KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 160300UTC 25.7N 123.7E 90NM 70% MOVE N 10KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 45HF 170000UTC 31.3N 127.8E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 16KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 69HF 180000UTC 37.0N 132.0E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 16KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 150300 *** WARNING 150300. WARNING VALID 160300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 945 HPA AT 21.7N 124.0E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 151500UTC AT 23.7N 123.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160300UTC AT 25.7N 123.7E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPZ33 KNHC 150407 *** TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 6...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 800 PM PDT THU SEP 14 2006 ...CORRECTED STORM MOTION SECTION... ...LANE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE... AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BUENA VISTA SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST...AND FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWARD TO EL ROBLITO...INCLUDING THE ISLAS MARIAS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES. INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.3 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES...125 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 430 MILES...690 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO. LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LANE WOULD REMAIN OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT. HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND LANE IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...18.4 N...105.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART ** WTPQ20 BABJ 150400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 150400 UTC 00HR 21.8N 124.0E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 180KM P12HR NNW 10KM/H= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 150445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 150300 UTC, TYPHOON SHANSHAN (0613) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (21.7 N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (124.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 95 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160300 UTC TWO FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (25.6 N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (124.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170300 UTC THREE ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (30.0 N) ONE TWO SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (127.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180300 UTC THREE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (35.1 N) ONE THREE ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (130.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 150500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 150500 UTC 00HR 21.9N 124.0E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 180KM P12HR NNW 10KM/H= ** WTNT80 EGRR 150535 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 15.09.2006 HURRICANE GORDON ANALYSED POSITION : 30.1N 54.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 15.09.2006 30.1N 54.8W WEAK 12UTC 15.09.2006 32.0N 52.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.09.2006 31.7N 53.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.09.2006 32.8N 53.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2006 33.8N 52.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2006 36.2N 50.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2006 38.4N 47.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2006 40.4N 42.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.09.2006 41.1N 35.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2006 EXTRA-TROPICAL TROPICAL STORM HELENE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N 38.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 15.09.2006 13.6N 38.5W MODERATE 12UTC 15.09.2006 15.2N 40.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.09.2006 16.4N 42.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2006 17.4N 44.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2006 18.2N 46.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2006 18.9N 47.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2006 20.0N 48.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.09.2006 19.8N 50.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2006 21.6N 50.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 19.09.2006 22.6N 52.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2006 23.5N 52.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.09.2006 24.2N 53.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2006 25.7N 54.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.2N 105.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 15.09.2006 18.2N 105.5W STRONG 12UTC 15.09.2006 18.8N 106.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 16.09.2006 20.4N 106.7W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.09.2006 21.6N 108.1W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 17.09.2006 22.2N 108.7W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 17.09.2006 22.0N 109.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2006 22.3N 109.2W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 18.09.2006 22.3N 109.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.09.2006 24.0N 110.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2006 24.7N 110.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 13.9N 119.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 15.09.2006 13.9N 119.1W WEAK 12UTC 15.09.2006 15.9N 120.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2006 15.5N 121.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2006 15.9N 122.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2006 16.4N 123.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.09.2006 17.0N 124.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2006 17.4N 125.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.09.2006 17.8N 125.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.09.2006 17.9N 126.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2006 18.5N 127.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2006 20.4N 128.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2006 23.0N 127.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 21.09.2006 23.8N 125.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 150535 ** WTPZ33 KNHC 150556 *** TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM LANE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 1100 PM PDT THU SEP 14 2006 ...LANE GRADUALLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED... A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BUENA VISTA SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST...AND FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWARD TO EL ROBLITO...INCLUDING THE ISLAS MARIAS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES...AND FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM PDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.4 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES...115 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 425 MILES...685 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO. LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LANE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND LANE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM PDT POSITION...18.4 N...105.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB