** WTPQ20 BABJ 141800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 141800 UTC 00HR 20.7N 124.6E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 180KM P12HR NNW 10KM/H P+24HR 23.2N 123.8E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 28.1N 125.9E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 34.0N 129.9E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 141800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 141800UTC 20.8N 124.5E GOOD MOVE NW 06KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 151800UTC 24.7N 123.4E 90NM 70% MOVE N 11KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 48HF 161800UTC 29.7N 126.7E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 14KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 72HF 171800UTC 35.2N 130.0E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 15KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 141800 *** WARNING 141800. WARNING VALID 151800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 945 HPA AT 20.8N 124.5E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 22.4N 123.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 24.7N 123.4E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 29.7N 126.7E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 35.2N 130.0E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 141800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 10 NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN ANALYSIS POSITION 141800UTC 20.8N 124.5E MOVEMENT NW 6KT PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 151800UTC 24.6N 123.7E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT 48HR POSITION 161800UTC 29.3N 126.7E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT 72HR POSITION 171800UTC 34.3N 129.9E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 955HPA 80KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 VHHH 141945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 141800 UTC, TYPHOON SHANSHAN (0613) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (20.9 N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (124.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 97 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 330 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151800 UTC TWO FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (24.4 N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (124.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 97 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 161800 UTC TWO NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (29.0 N) ONE TWO SIX POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (126.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 97 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 171800 UTC THREE THREE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (33.3 N) ONE TWO NINE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (129.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. ** WTNT42 KNHC 142035 *** TCDAT2 HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 500 PM EDT THU SEP 14 2006 THE SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF GORDON REMAINS ALMOST UNCHANGED FROM THIS MORNING. A 20 N MI WIDE EYE CONTINUES TO EXIST WITH DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING IT. DESPITE 20 TO 25 KT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IMPINGING UPON THE HURRICANE...GORDON MAINTAINS MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 105 KT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 5.5 OR 102 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND REASONING IS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS EARLIER TODAY AS WELL. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FROM BOTH SHIPS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE FORECASTS GORDON TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH 5 DAYS...BUT THE WEAKENING COULD BE TOO FAST. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS GORDON AS A HURRICANE THROUGH FIVE DAYS WHICH COULD BE A BIT OVERDONE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE AND COMMENCES A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND THROUGH 4 DAYS AND THEN LEVELS OUT THE INTENSITY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 035/10. THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT AND ANTICIPATES A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF THE STEERING CURRENTS IN ABOUT 18-24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE INITIAL MOTION HAS YET TO HINT AT A DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION. WITH THAT SAID...THE FORECAST MOTION OF GORDON IS THE MOST CHALLENGING PART OF THE FORECAST. AFTER 72 HOURS...ECMWF...UKMET...AND FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE ALL ACCELERATE GORDON AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MID- LATITUDE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE EARLY PERIODS AND IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THIS MORNING'S PACKAGE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/2100Z 30.2N 54.9W 105 KT 12HR VT 15/0600Z 31.3N 54.0W 95 KT 24HR VT 15/1800Z 32.1N 53.2W 85 KT 36HR VT 16/0600Z 32.9N 52.3W 75 KT 48HR VT 16/1800Z 33.8N 51.4W 65 KT 72HR VT 17/1800Z 37.0N 47.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 18/1800Z 40.5N 39.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 19/1800Z 43.0N 27.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN ** WTNT22 KNHC 142036 *** TCMAT2 HURRICANE GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 2100 UTC THU SEP 14 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 54.9W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..160NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 54.9W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 55.3W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 31.3N 54.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 32.1N 53.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 32.9N 52.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 33.8N 51.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 37.0N 47.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 40.5N 39.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 43.0N 27.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.2N 54.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN ** WTNT32 KNHC 142038 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 500 PM AST THU SEP 14 2006 ...HURRICANE GORDON MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC... AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.9 WEST OR ABOUT 600 MILES... 970 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA. GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GORDON REMAINS A MAJOR CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...30.2 N...54.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN ** WTPZ43 KNHC 142040 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 200 PM PDT THU SEP 14 2006 A MICROWAVE PASS FROM 13Z THIS MORNING SHOWED A FORMATIVE EYEWALL... AND BOTH CORE AND OUTER BANDING FEATURES HAVE INCREASED SINCE THIS MORNING. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 55 AND 45 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL HARD TO GAUGE. THE MICROWAVE PASS THIS MORNING GAVE A POSITION A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SUGGESTS A MORE WESTWARD MOTION. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/12. LANE IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO. A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REINFORCE A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT WILL TURN LANE MORE NORTHWARD...AT SOME POINT. THERE HAS BEEN A CONSIDERABLE EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE...AND AT THE MOMENT THERE IS NO SERIOUS GUIDANCE WITH A TRACK WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE GFDL IS THE RIGHT-MOST OUTLIER...WITH AN IMMEDIATE NORTHWARD MOTION AND A LANDFALL IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BETWEEN MANZANILLO AND CABO CORRIENTES. GIVEN THE MORE WESTWARD PRESENT MOTION...A HURRICANE WATCH STILL SEEMS MORE APPROPRIATE THAN A HURRICANE WARNING AT THIS TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED EASTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE NOGAPS MODEL. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GFS AND THE BAMS SHOW A SHARP RECURVATURE INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. I AM NOT READY TO MAKE THAT MUCH OF A CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IN THE LATER PERIODS IS CLOSER TO THE UKMET SOLUTION OF LINGERING LANE IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LARGE SCALE ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER LANE. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ALMOST 30C AND THE SHEAR IS LIGHT. THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX REMAINS VERY AGRESSIVE FOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS IS THE SHIPS MODEL ITSELF. THE GFDL IS NOT USEFUL SINCE IT TAKES LANE OVER LAND IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE INTENSITY WILL DEPEND PRIMARILY ON HOW MUCH LAND INTERACTION THERE IS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/2100Z 17.9N 105.2W 50 KT 12HR VT 15/0600Z 18.8N 106.2W 65 KT 24HR VT 15/1800Z 20.1N 107.3W 75 KT 36HR VT 16/0600Z 21.3N 108.3W 80 KT 48HR VT 16/1800Z 22.3N 109.3W 85 KT 72HR VT 17/1800Z 24.5N 110.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 18/1800Z 26.0N 111.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 19/1800Z 27.0N 111.0W 55 KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPZ33 KNHC 142040 *** TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 200 PM PDT THU SEP 14 2006 ...LANE STRENGTHENS...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE... AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ADJUSTED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING...WHICH NOW EXTENDS FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO EL ROBLITO...AND INCLUDES THE ISLAS MARIAS. AT 2 PM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORREIENTES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.2 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES...155 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 460 MILES ...740 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO. LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LANE WOULD REMAIN OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT. HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND LANE IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH LANE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...17.9 N...105.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPZ23 KNHC 142040 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 2100 UTC THU SEP 14 2006 AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ADJUSTED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING...WHICH NOW EXTENDS FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO EL ROBLITO...AND INCLUDES THE ISLAS MARIAS. AT 2 PM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORREIENTES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 105.2W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 120SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 120SE 120SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 105.2W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 104.9W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.8N 106.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 20.1N 107.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 21.3N 108.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 22.3N 109.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 24.5N 110.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 26.0N 111.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 27.0N 111.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 105.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTNT33 KNHC 142042 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 500 PM AST THU SEP 14 2006 ...HELENE MOVING SLOWER...REMAINS FAR FROM LAND... AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.6 WEST OR ABOUT 885 MILES...1420 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...14.2 N...37.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN ** WTNT23 KNHC 142043 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 2100 UTC THU SEP 14 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 37.6W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 45SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 37.6W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 37.0W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.8N 39.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 45SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.0N 42.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 45SE 45SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.3N 44.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 50NW. 34 KT...125NE 75SE 60SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.5N 46.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 75SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.5N 49.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 75SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 22.5N 51.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 25.5N 54.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 37.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN ** WTNT43 KNHC 142045 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 500 PM EDT THU SEP 14 2006 THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH HELENE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE THIS MORNING...AND THERE ARE NO DISTINCT CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION THAT HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM THIS MORNING AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 40 KT. A RATHER DISTINCT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BECAME APPARENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING WHICH WAS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND THIS REQUIRED A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT BOTH TO THE WORKING TRACK AND TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. HELENE HAS SLOWED DOWN DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...BUT USING A LONGER TERM 12 HOUR AVERAGE YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/14. HELENE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THE GLOBAL MODELS IN GENERAL DEVELOP A BREAK IN THE RIDGE IN A COUPLE DAYS BETWEEN 50W AND 60W...WHICH SHOULD IMPART A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODELS AS TO WHEN THIS MAY OCCUR. THE GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND THE GFDL ARE TO THE RIGHT AND FORECAST THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN MUCH SOONER. THE UKMET KEEPS THE RIDGE INTACT LONGER AND THEREFORE IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND GUNA MODEL CONSENSUS. EVEN THOUGH THE OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED AND HELENE IS IN A VERY LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...THE LARGE CIRCULATION STILL LACKS INNER CORE CONVECTION. UNTIL THE INNER CORE DEVELOPS...STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEED MUCH LIKE THE SHIPS MODEL. LATE IN THE PERIOD GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST SOME INCREASING SHEAR WHICH COULD SLOW THE INTENSIFICATION. ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED OUTWARD BASED ON A RECENT REPORT OF 34 KT WINDS FROM A MOORED BUOY ABOUT 90 NM NORTHWEST OF HELENE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/2100Z 14.2N 37.6W 40 KT 12HR VT 15/0600Z 14.8N 39.7W 45 KT 24HR VT 15/1800Z 16.0N 42.1W 55 KT 36HR VT 16/0600Z 17.3N 44.4W 65 KT 48HR VT 16/1800Z 18.5N 46.2W 75 KT 72HR VT 17/1800Z 20.5N 49.0W 85 KT 96HR VT 18/1800Z 22.5N 51.0W 90 KT 120HR VT 19/1800Z 25.5N 54.0W 90 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN ** WTPQ20 BABJ 142100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 142100 UTC 00HR 21.2N 124.5E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 180KM P12HR N 15KM/H P+24HR 24.7N 123.7E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 29.7N 126.3E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 35.7N 130.7E 970HPA 30M/S= ** WTCA43 TJSJ 142132 CCA *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL HELENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 10 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL082006 500 PM AST JUEVES 14 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...HELENE SE MUEVE MAS LENTAMENTE...PERMANECE LEJOS DE TIERRA... A LAS 500 PM EDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL HELENE ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 14.2 NORTE... LONGITUD 37.6 OESTE O COMO A 885 MILLAS...14205 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE SUR. HELENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH. 26 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA CONTINUE EN ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EXTIENDEN HASTA 105 MILLAS... 165 KM FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL SE ESTIMADA ES DE 1003 MILIBARAS...29.62 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 PM EDT...14.2 NORTE...37.6 OESTE. SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE CERCA DE 16 MPH. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1003 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 PM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADO BROWN/FRANKLIN ** WTPH RPLL 141800 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 19 AT 1800 14 SEPTEMBER TYPHOON (SHANSHAN) (0613) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 20.8N 124.5E MOVING NORTHWEST AT 03MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 300KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 41MPS NEAR CENTER 33MPS WITHIN 100KMS RADIUS 13MPS WITHIN 300KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 151800 22.5N 122.6E AT 161800 25.5N 122.1E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 142100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 142100UTC 21.2N 124.4E GOOD MOVE NW 06KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 152100UTC 25.0N 123.6E 90NM 70% MOVE N 11KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 45HF 161800UTC 29.7N 126.7E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 14KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 69HF 171800UTC 35.2N 130.0E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 15KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 142100 *** WARNING 142100. WARNING VALID 152100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 945 HPA AT 21.2N 124.4E SOUTH OF ISHIGAKIJIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150900UTC AT 22.8N 123.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 152100UTC AT 25.0N 123.6E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPH20 RPMM 141800 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 19 AT 1800 14 SEPTEMBER TYPHOON [SHANSHAN] (0613) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ZERO POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT FIVE EAST MOVING NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX THREE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ONE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 151800 TWO TWO POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT SIX EAST AT 161800 TWO FIVE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT ONE EAST ALL SHIPS WIHTIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 142245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 142100 UTC, TYPHOON SHANSHAN (0613) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ONE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (21.3 N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (124.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 97 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 330 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 152100 UTC TWO FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (24.4 N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (124.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 97 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 162100 UTC TWO EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (28.6 N) ONE TWO SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (126.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 97 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 172100 UTC THREE THREE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (33.9 N) ONE TWO NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (129.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. ** WTPZ33 KNHC 142358 *** TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM LANE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 500 PM PDT THU SEP 14 2006 ...OUTER RAIN BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM LANE CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO EL ROBLITO...AND INCLUDES THE ISLAS MARIAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES...AND INCLUDES THE ISLAS MARIAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.3 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES...160 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 430 MILES ...690 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO. LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LANE WOULD REMAIN OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT. HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND LANE IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH LANE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...18.2 N...105.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART