** WTSR20 WSSS 140600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 141200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 141200 UTC 00HR 20.4N 125.0E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 22.9N 123.8E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 27.6N 125.5E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 33.6N 129.8E 965HPA 38M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 141200 *** WARNING 141200. WARNING VALID 151200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 955 HPA AT 20.4N 125.1E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 22.0N 124.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 23.9N 123.5E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 28.5N 126.3E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 33.6N 130.4E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 141200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 141200UTC 20.4N 125.1E GOOD MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 151200UTC 23.9N 123.5E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 48HF 161200UTC 28.5N 126.3E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 13KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 72HF 171200UTC 33.6N 130.4E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 15KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTCA43 TJSJ 141354 CCA *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL HELENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 8 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL082006 500 AM AST JUEVES 14 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...HELENE SE MUEVA RAPIDO AL OESTE SIN CAMBIO EN LA FUERZA... A LAS 500 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL HELENE ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 13.7 NORTE... LONGITUD 34.7 OESTE O COMO A 695 MILLAS...1115 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE SUR. TORMENTA TROPICAL HELENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 22 MPH 35 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. LSE PRONOSTICA QUE CONTINUE FORTALECIENDOSE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EXTIENDEN HASTA 85 MILLAS... 140 KM FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL SE ESTIMADA ES DE 1005 MILIBARAS...29.68 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 AM EDT...13.7 NORTE...34.7 OESTE. SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 22 MPH. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1005 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 AM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADO KNABB ** WTPQ20 VHHH 141345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 141200 UTC, TYPHOON SHANSHAN (0613) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (20.5 N) ONE TWO FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (125.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 45 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151200 UTC TWO THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (23.8 N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (124.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 161200 UTC TWO EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (28.4 N) ONE TWO SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (126.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 171200 UTC THREE TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (32.5 N) ONE TWO NINE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (129.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. ** WTPZ33 KNHC 141433 *** TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 800 AM PDT THU SEP 14 2006 ...LANE STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES PARALLEL TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.3 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES...165 KM...SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 520 MILES... 840 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO. LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD KEEP THE CENTER OF LANE OFFSHORE OF THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WARNING AREA TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND LAND COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...17.5 N...104.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTNT42 KNHC 141433 *** TCDAT2 HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 AM EDT THU SEP 14 2006 GORDON REMAINS AN IMPRESSIVE MAJOR HURRICANE ON CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH A DISTINCT EYE ABOUT 20 N MI WIDE AND AN EYE TEMPERATURE NEAR 16 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE...BUT SOUTH- WESTERLY SHEAR HAS BEGUN TO IMPINGE UPON THE HURRICANE. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE 102 KT...AND 3-HR AVERAGE ADT ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS WERE AROUND 115 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 105 KT. THE LAST COUPLE OF INFRARED IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTION IS GETTING DEEPER...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...GORDON'S INTENSITY MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED SLIGHTLY. DESPITE THIS...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FROM BOTH SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE SHOWS THAT GORDON HAS PEAKED IN INTENSITY AND FORECASTS SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING THROUGH 5 DAYS IN RESPONSE TO COOLER WATERS...SHEAR...AND A HOSTILE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS GORDON AS A HURRICANE THROUGH FIVE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE AND MAINTAINS THE CURRENT INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 030/10. THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT AND ANTICIPATES A WEAKENING OF THE STEERING CURRENTS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH EXTRATROPICAL FLORENCE PULLS OUT AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF GORDON WEAKENS. AFTER 72 HOURS....THE NOGAPS...ECMWF...UKMET...AND GFDL ALL ACCELERATE GORDON AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MID- LATITUDE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS A BLEND OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL SOLUTIONS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/1500Z 29.5N 55.9W 105 KT 12HR VT 15/0000Z 30.7N 54.9W 105 KT 24HR VT 15/1200Z 31.8N 53.9W 90 KT 36HR VT 16/0000Z 32.6N 53.1W 80 KT 48HR VT 16/1200Z 33.6N 52.0W 65 KT 72HR VT 17/1200Z 35.5N 49.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 18/1200Z 39.5N 43.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 19/1200Z 43.0N 33.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN ** WTPZ23 KNHC 141433 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 1500 UTC THU SEP 14 2006 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 104.3W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 120SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 104.3W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 103.9W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 18.2N 105.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 19.0N 106.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.9N 107.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 20.9N 108.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 23.0N 110.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 120SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 24.5N 111.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 26.5N 112.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 104.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTNT22 KNHC 141434 *** TCMAT2 HURRICANE GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1500 UTC THU SEP 14 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 55.9W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..160NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 55.9W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 56.2W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 30.7N 54.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 31.8N 53.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 32.6N 53.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 33.6N 52.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 35.5N 49.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 39.5N 43.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 43.0N 33.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.5N 55.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN ** WTNT32 KNHC 141435 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 AM AST THU SEP 14 2006 ...GORDON REMAINS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE...NO THREAT TO LAND... AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.9 WEST OR ABOUT 560 MILES... 905 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR ...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GORDON REMAINS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR- SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...29.5 N...55.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN ** WTNT23 KNHC 141444 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1500 UTC THU SEP 14 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 36.8W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 36.8W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 36.0W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 13.8N 39.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.8N 42.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.2N 44.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...125NE 75SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.5N 46.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 75SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.5N 49.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 75SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 21.5N 51.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 24.5N 53.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 36.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER COBB/BEVEN ** WTNT43 KNHC 141448 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 AM EDT THU SEP 14 2006 A QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS FROM 0802 UTC WAS HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER WHICH WAS FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS HELENE IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH INCREASING CURVATURE NOTED IN THE BANDING FEATURES. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB...35 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE STORM CONTINUES TO RACE WESTWARD AT 275/20 AS IT CURRENTLY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS LARGE ESPECIALLY BEYOND 24 TO 36 HOURS. AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE MODELS OFFER TWO SOLUTIONS. THE GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND THE GFDL ARE TO THE RIGHT AND FORECAST THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH TO WEAKEN QUITE RAPIDLY ALLOWING THE STORM TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. THE UKMET KEEPS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND MAINTAINS A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK LONGER. IN GENERAL ALL OF THE MODELS DECREASE THE FORWARD SPEED BY HALF OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING DAYS 3-5. BY THAT TIME THE TRACK FORECAST IS QUITE UNCERTAIN SINCE THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS MORE THAN 450 MILES WIDE. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS MOVED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND NOW IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE INTENSIFICATION OF HELENE IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW INITIALLY BECAUSE OF THE CURRENTLY BROAD CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE. CONVECTION SHOULD EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND ALLOW FOR MORE STEADY STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN 27-28 CELSIUS AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THUS HELENE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY 36 HOURS. THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS INDICATE A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90-95 KT WHILE THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE INDICATES HELENE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LOWER THAN ALL THE GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST DAY OR TWO GIVEN THE CURRENT SLOW RATE OF INTENSIFICATION THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE AND BRINGS HELENE TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/1500Z 13.4N 36.8W 40 KT 12HR VT 15/0000Z 13.8N 39.1W 45 KT 24HR VT 15/1200Z 14.8N 42.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 16/0000Z 16.2N 44.1W 65 KT 48HR VT 16/1200Z 17.5N 46.0W 75 KT 72HR VT 17/1200Z 19.5N 49.0W 85 KT 96HR VT 18/1200Z 21.5N 51.0W 90 KT 120HR VT 19/1200Z 24.5N 53.0W 90 KT $$ FORECASTER COBB/BEVEN ** WTNT33 KNHC 141452 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 AM AST THU SEP 14 2006 ...HELENE STRENGTHENING SLOWLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.8 WEST OR ABOUT 835 MILES...1345 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...13.4 N...36.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER COBB/BEVEN ** WTPZ43 KNHC 141454 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 800 AM PDT THU SEP 14 2006 LANE CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...WITH A FORMATIVE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND A LARGE BAND OF CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB...AND 35 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT...AND THIS MIGHT BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR TO FAIR ELSEWHERE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/11...A LITTLE FASTER THAN EARLIER. LANE IN ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO...AND IS MOVING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CAUSED BY A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS TROUGH TO MOVE EASTWARD...WITH A SECOND TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS LANE BY 120 HR. TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOW IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LANE WILL MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR 72 HR...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AS THE CYCLONE MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BRINGING LANE PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FOR 24 HR AND NEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM 72-120 HR. IT IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE. LANE IS CURRENTLY IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30C...AND IS PRODUCING CLOUD TOPS OF COLDER THAN -80C. THESE CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...WITH THE ONLY OBVIOUS INHIBITING FACTOR BEING THAT THE INFLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE WILL BE PASSING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR LANE TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 24 HR AND REACH 75 KT AS IT NEARS BAJA CALIFORNIA IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. HOWEVER...THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX OF THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A 55 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HR...SO LANE COULD BE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AS IT APPROACHES BAJA. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FROM 72-120 HR IS BASED ON LANE MOVING OVER BAJA...AND THE INTENSITY WILL BE DIFFERENT IF THE CENTER MOVES OVER EITHER THE PACIFIC OR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS THE CENTER OFFSHORE UNTIL LANE APPROACHES BAJA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/1500Z 17.5N 104.3W 40 KT 12HR VT 15/0000Z 18.2N 105.4W 55 KT 24HR VT 15/1200Z 19.0N 106.6W 65 KT 36HR VT 16/0000Z 19.9N 107.6W 70 KT 48HR VT 16/1200Z 20.9N 108.6W 75 KT 72HR VT 17/1200Z 23.0N 110.0W 75 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 18/1200Z 24.5N 111.5W 65 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 19/1200Z 26.5N 112.0W 50 KT...INLAND $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPH RPLL 141200 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 18 AT 1200 14 SEPTEMBER TYPHOON (SHANSHAN) (0613) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 20.4N 126.0E MOVING WEST AT 03MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 300KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 41MPS NEAR CENTER 33MPS WITHIN 100KMS RADIUS 13MPS WITHIN 300KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 151200 21.4N 122.3E AT 161200 24.2N 122.0E AT 171200 27.0N 122.4E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 141500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 141500 UTC 00HR 20.5N 124.8E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTNT33 KNHC 141524 CCA *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 9...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 AM AST THU SEP 14 2006 ...CORRECTED TO ADD MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... ...HELENE STRENGTHENING SLOWLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.8 WEST OR ABOUT 835 MILES...1345 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...13.4 N...36.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER COBB/BEVEN ** WTPQ20 RJTD 141500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 141500UTC 20.5N 124.8E GOOD MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 151500UTC 24.3N 123.6E 90NM 70% MOVE N 10KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 45HF 161200UTC 28.5N 126.3E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 13KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 69HF 171200UTC 33.6N 130.4E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 15KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 141500 *** WARNING 141500. WARNING VALID 151500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 955 HPA AT 20.5N 124.8E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150300UTC AT 22.3N 123.9E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 151500UTC AT 24.3N 123.6E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTCA43 TJSJ 141554 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL HELENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 8 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 AM AST JUEVES 14 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...HELENE SE ESTA FORTALECIENDO LENTAMENTE SOBRE EL LEJANO ATLANTICO ORIENTAL... A LAS 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL HELENE ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 13.4 NORTE... LONGITUD 36.8 OESTE O COMO A 835 MILLAS...1345 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE SUR. HELENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 32 MPH. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA QUE CONTINUE FORTALECIENDOSE GRADUALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EXTIENDEN HASTA 85 MILLAS... 140 KM FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL SE ESTIMADA ES DE 1003 MILIBARAS...29.62 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 AM EDT...13.4 NORTE...36.8 OESTE. SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1003 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 PM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADO COBB/BEVEN ** WTCA43 TJSJ 141555 CCA *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL HELENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 9 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 AM AST JUEVES 14 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...HELENE SE ESTA FORTALECIENDO LENTAMENTE SOBRE EL LEJANO ATLANTICO ORIENTAL... A LAS 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL HELENE ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 13.4 NORTE... LONGITUD 36.8 OESTE O COMO A 835 MILLAS...1345 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE SUR. HELENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 32 MPH. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA QUE CONTINUE FORTALECIENDOSE GRADUALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EXTIENDEN HASTA 85 MILLAS... 140 KM FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL SE ESTIMADA ES DE 1003 MILIBARAS...29.62 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 AM EDT...13.4 NORTE...36.8 OESTE. SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1003 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 PM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADO COBB/BEVEN ** WTPH20 RPMM 141200 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 18 AT 1200 14 SEPTEMBER TYPHOON [SHANSHAN] (0613) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ZERO POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT ZERO EAST MOVINGWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX THREE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ONE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 151200 TWO ONE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT THREE EAST AT 161200 TWO FOUR POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT ZERO EAST AT 171200 TWO SEVEN POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT FOUR EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH20 RPMM 141200 CCA *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 18 AT 1200 14 SEPTEMBER TYPHOON [SHANSHAN] (0613) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ZERO POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT ZERO EAST MOVINGWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX THREE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ONE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 151200 TWO ONE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT THREE EAST AT 161200 TWO FOUR POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT ZERO EAST AT 171200 TWO SEVEN POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT FOUR EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 141645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 141500 UTC, TYPHOON SHANSHAN (0613) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (20.5 N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (124.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 45 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151500 UTC TWO FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (24.0 N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (124.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 161500 UTC TWO EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (28.6 N) ONE TWO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (126.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 171500 UTC THREE TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (32.7 N) ONE TWO NINE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (129.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. ** WTNT80 EGRR 141705 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 14.09.2006 HURRICANE GORDON ANALYSED POSITION : 29.0N 56.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.09.2006 29.0N 56.5W MODERATE 00UTC 15.09.2006 31.2N 54.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.09.2006 32.4N 53.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2006 33.5N 52.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2006 34.3N 51.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2006 35.4N 49.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2006 40.1N 47.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2006 40.7N 39.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.09.2006 42.4N 32.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 19.09.2006 42.9N 25.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2006 EXTRA-TROPICAL TROPICAL STORM HELENE ANALYSED POSITION : 14.0N 36.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.09.2006 14.0N 36.1W MODERATE 00UTC 15.09.2006 13.4N 39.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.09.2006 14.4N 42.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2006 15.6N 45.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.09.2006 16.6N 48.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2006 17.4N 49.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2006 18.2N 51.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2006 19.6N 52.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2006 20.8N 53.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2006 21.8N 54.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2006 22.0N 55.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2006 23.1N 56.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 20.09.2006 23.7N 57.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 17.4N 103.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.09.2006 17.4N 103.6W STRONG 00UTC 15.09.2006 18.7N 105.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.09.2006 20.1N 106.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2006 21.9N 107.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.09.2006 22.7N 108.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2006 23.8N 109.3W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 17.09.2006 23.7N 108.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2006 23.5N 108.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.09.2006 23.3N 108.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2006 23.0N 108.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2006 22.3N 108.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2006 22.3N 108.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.09.2006 21.9N 108.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 15.9N 118.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.09.2006 15.9N 118.4W WEAK 00UTC 16.09.2006 15.5N 120.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2006 15.6N 120.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2006 16.3N 121.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2006 17.2N 121.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2006 17.5N 123.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2006 17.8N 123.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.09.2006 18.1N 124.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2006 18.6N 125.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2006 19.7N 126.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2006 21.3N 128.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 11.7N 145.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 17.09.2006 11.7N 145.5W WEAK 12UTC 17.09.2006 11.3N 146.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2006 11.0N 148.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2006 10.7N 149.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 19.09.2006 11.5N 150.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2006 11.8N 152.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2006 12.6N 154.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.09.2006 12.9N 156.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 141705 ** WTPZ33 KNHC 141734 *** TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM LANE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 1100 AM PDT THU SEP 14 2006 ...LANE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.8 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES...150 KM...SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 485 MILES... 780 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO. LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD KEEP THE CENTER OF LANE OFFSHORE OF THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WARNING AREA TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND LAND COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...17.8 N...104.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN