** WTPQ20 BABJ 140600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 140600 UTC 00HR 20.4N 125.5E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 22.2N 124.0E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 27.0N 125.8E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 31.0N 129.6E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTIN20 DEMS 140625 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 14-09-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL, SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AND PARTS OF NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND WEST CENTRAL BAY AND EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 22 DEG. NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????????? ** WTPQ20 RJTD 140600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 140600UTC 20.3N 125.5E GOOD MOVE W 06KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 150600UTC 22.6N 124.0E 90NM 70% MOVE NW 06KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 48HF 160600UTC 27.1N 125.5E 160NM 70% MOVE N 11KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 72HF 170600UTC 33.2N 130.8E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 19KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 140600 *** WARNING 140600. WARNING VALID 150600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 955 HPA AT 20.3N 125.5E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 22.6N 124.0E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 27.1N 125.5E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 33.2N 130.8E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 140600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 9 NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN ANALYSIS POSITION 140600UTC 20.3N 125.5E MOVEMENT W 5KT PRES/VMAX 955HPA 80KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 150600UTC 22.1N 123.7E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT 48HR POSITION 160600UTC 25.6N 125.0E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT 72HR POSITION 170600UTC 29.9N 127.6E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 140600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.10 FOR TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 140600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE. TY WILL RECURVE WITHIN 36 HOURS FROM 140600 UTC. THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NORTH. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTNT43 KNHC 140849 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 500 AM EDT THU SEP 14 2006 HELENE REMAINS A FAIRLY DISORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM. THE CONVECTIVE BAND SEEN LAST NIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT HAS SPREAD OUT AND FRAGMENTED...THERE IS LITTLE OR NO DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN ABOUT 60 N MI OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND IN GENERAL THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVERNIGHT. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE UNCHANGED AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT. THE STORM CONTINUES TO RACE WESTWARD AT 280/19 AS IT CURRENTLY LIES SOUTH OF THE CORE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BECOME RELATIVELY LARGE WITH THE MODELS FALLING INTO TWO MAIN CAMPS. THE GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND THE GFDL FORECAST THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH TO WEAKEN QUITE RAPIDLY AND ALLOW THE STORM TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MAINTAIN THE RIDGE LONGER AND FORECAST HELENE TO MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR ABOUT 48 MORE HOURS. ALL OF THE MODELS FORECAST A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...AT ABOUT HALF THE CURRENT FORWARD SPEED...OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING DAYS 3-5. BY THAT TIME...HOWEVER...THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS MORE THAN 300 MILES WIDE...SO THE TRACK FORECAST AT THOSE LONG RANGES IS QUITE UNCERTAIN. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS MOVED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. HELENE CONTINUES IN ITS STRUGGLE TO INTENSIFY...PROBABLY BECAUSE OF ITS LARGE SIZE AND THE FAST FORWARD MOTION. IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE CONVECTION WILL SOON CONSOLIDATE NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND ALLOW FOR MORE STEADY STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE IMPACTS OF THE NEARBY SAHARAN AIR LAYER ARE UNCERTAIN BUT COULD END UP BEING AN ADDITIONAL INHIBITING FACTOR. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...SINCE THE SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL REMAIN 27-28 CELSIUS AND THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ANTICIPATES HELENE TO BECOME A HURRICANE. THE SHIPS MODEL HAS BACKED OFF A BIT AND NOW MAKES HELENE NO STRONGER THAN ABOUT 85 KT THROUGH FIVE DAYS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFDL SOLUTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GUIDANCE AT THE LONGER RANGES...BUT IT IS BELOW SHIPS DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS OR SO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0900Z 13.7N 34.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 14/1800Z 14.1N 37.0W 40 KT 24HR VT 15/0600Z 15.2N 39.6W 50 KT 36HR VT 15/1800Z 16.5N 41.6W 60 KT 48HR VT 16/0600Z 17.8N 43.0W 70 KT 72HR VT 17/0600Z 20.0N 45.5W 80 KT 96HR VT 18/0600Z 22.0N 48.5W 85 KT 120HR VT 19/0600Z 24.0N 51.0W 85 KT $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTNT23 KNHC 140849 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 0900 UTC THU SEP 14 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 34.7W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 34.7W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 33.8W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 14.1N 37.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 15.2N 39.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 30SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.5N 41.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 75SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.8N 43.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 75SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 20.0N 45.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 75SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 22.0N 48.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 24.0N 51.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 34.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTPN31 PGTW 140900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 018 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 140600Z --- NEAR 20.3N 125.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.3N 125.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 21.0N 124.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 22.4N 123.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 24.4N 124.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 26.3N 125.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 30.6N 128.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 35.3N 130.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 41.2N 132.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 140900Z POSITION NEAR 20.5N 125.2E. TYPHOON (TY) 14W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.// ** WTNT33 KNHC 140852 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 500 AM AST THU SEP 14 2006 ...HELENE RACING WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.7 WEST OR ABOUT 695 MILES...1115 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...TO THE NORTH FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...13.7 N...34.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTPH RPLL 140600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 17 AT 0600 14 SEPTEMBER TYPHOON (SHANSHAN) (0613) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ZERO POINT FOUR NOTH ONE TWO FIVE EAST MOVING WEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX THREE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ONE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WIHTIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSI- TIONS AT 150600 TWO ONE POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT NINE EAST AT 160600 TWO THREE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT ZERO EAST AT 170600 TWO SIX POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT EIGHT EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTPZ43 KNHC 140855 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 200 AM PDT THU SEP 14 2006 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH INCREASING BANDING NOTED TO THE WEST. BASED ON THIS TREND AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM TAFB AND UW CIMSS ADT...THE CYCLONE IS UPGRADED TO A 35 KT TROPICAL STORM. LANE APPEARS TO BE EXPERIENCING A LITTLE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AS EVIDENCED BY THE OVERALL CLOUD MASS FAVORED TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL FORM OVER LANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO PRODUCING A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THIS ENVIRONMENT COUPLED WITH A WARM UNDERLYING OCEAN SHOULD ALLOW FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. IN FACT...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A 46% PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THIS RATE GIVEN THE CURRENT SHEARED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST...THE INTENSITY IS PROBLEMATIC. SHOULD LANE TRACK OVER OR WEST OF BAJA...COOLER WATERS AND LAND INTERACTION WOULD FAVOR WEAKENING. IF LANE TAKES A MORE EASTWARD MOTION...AS INDICATED BY THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS...THE CYCLONE COULD POTENTIALLY BE OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE NEW FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. LANE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...OR 300/9...AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LANE FORECAST TO PARALLEL THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AMPLIFYING SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...PRODUCING A BREAK IN THE RIDGE AND ALLOWING LANE TO TURN INCREASINGLY NORTHWARD. THIS PATTERN HAS RESULTED IN A SIGNIFICANT EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE REQUIRING A LARGER THAN NORMAL ADJUSTMENT TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE NEW FORECAST INDICATES AN INCREASED THREAT TO THE BAJA PENINSULA AND MAINLAND MEXICO. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL MODEL...WHICH PERFORMED VERY WELL DURING HURRICANE JOHN...IS THE EASTERNMOST DYNAMICAL MODEL AND IS SIGNIFICANTLY EAST OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. INDEED...GLOBAL MODELS OFTEN STRUGGLE IN SITUATIONS WHERE CYCLONES ARE NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO...AND ADDITIONAL EASTWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...THE TRACK BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN. IF LANE MAINTAINS VERTICAL DEPTH...IT COULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW. A WEAKER AND MORE SHALLOW CYCLONE WOULD TEND TO CONTINUE NORTHWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS A NORTHWARD MOTION...ALBEIT IT VERY SLOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0900Z 16.9N 102.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 14/1800Z 17.3N 103.9W 45 KT 24HR VT 15/0600Z 18.1N 105.1W 55 KT 36HR VT 15/1800Z 19.0N 106.5W 65 KT 48HR VT 16/0600Z 20.0N 107.7W 70 KT 72HR VT 17/0600Z 22.0N 109.5W 75 KT 96HR VT 18/0600Z 24.0N 111.0W 70 KT...NEAR BAJA PENINSULA 120HR VT 19/0600Z 25.5N 111.5W 60 KT...INLAND $$ FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB ** WTPZ23 KNHC 140857 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 0900 UTC THU SEP 14 2006 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. IT IS RECOMMENDED TO CHANGE THIS TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 102.9W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 75SE 120SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 75SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 102.9W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 102.5W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.3N 103.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.1N 105.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 19.0N 106.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 20.0N 107.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 22.0N 109.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 120SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 24.0N 111.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 25.5N 111.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 102.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB ** WTPZ33 KNHC 140857 *** TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 200 AM PDT THU SEP 14 2006 ...LANE STRENGTHENING... ...OUTER RAINBANDS AFFECTING THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. IT IS RECOMMENDED TO CHANGE THIS TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH. AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.9 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...145 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 170 MILES...275 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WARNING AREA TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...16.9 N...102.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB ** WTNT22 KNHC 140857 *** TCMAT2 HURRICANE GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 0900 UTC THU SEP 14 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 56.6W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 85SW 85NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 56.6W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 56.8W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 30.1N 55.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 31.4N 54.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 32.3N 53.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 32.8N 53.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 34.5N 51.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 38.0N 46.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 42.0N 37.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.7N 56.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/KNABB ** WTNT32 KNHC 140859 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 500 AM AST THU SEP 14 2006 ...MAJOR HURRICANE GORDON NO THREAT TO LAND... AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.6 WEST OR ABOUT 550 MILES... 885 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GORDON REMAINS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...28.7 N...56.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/KNABB ** WTNT42 KNHC 140900 *** TCDAT2 HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 500 AM EDT THU SEP 14 2006 ALTHOUGH GORDON'S EYE REMAINS DISTINCT...IT HAS BECOME SMALLER AND A LITTLE LESS WELL-DEFINED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KT IS A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB OF 5.5. THE OUTFLOW IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE HAS DIMINISHED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS...AS CLOUD-TRACKED WINDS SUGGEST THAT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF GORDON IS IMPINGING ON THE CYCLONE. THESE TRENDS SUGGEST GORDON MAY BE PEAKING IN INTENSITY...AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS A GRADUAL WEAKENING IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS THROUGH DAY 2 AND LEANS MORE TOWARD THE GFDL AFTER THAT TIME...AS SHIPS SEEMS TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE TOO QUICKLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE CURRENT MOTION IS 030/11 AS GORDON CONTINUES TO ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT GORDON WILL SLOW CONSIDERABLY IN THE 2-3 DAY TIME PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE IS LEFT IN AN AREA OF WEAK FLOW NORTH OF THE RIDGE AND SOUTH OF THE WESTERLIES. THEREAFTER...AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EAST OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE INTERACTION OF GORDON WITH THESE FEATURES VARIES AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...AS THE GFS...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND THE ECMWF SHOW GORDON BEING ABSORBED INTO THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY DAY 4 OR 5. CONVERSELY...THE NOGAPS...GFDL...AND UKMET KEEP GORDON AS A DISTINCT SYSTEM THROUGH THE PERIOD...CONSISTENT WITH THE STRONGER INITIAL DEPICTION OF GORDON IN THESE MODELS. IF THE FIRST SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT GORDON WOULD UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...SINCE IT WOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE BEFORE ABSORPTION. HOWEVER...IF GORDON REMAINS INTACT IT WOULD LIKELY BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION LATE IN THE PERIOD AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. AT THIS POINT...IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WITH MUCH CERTAINLY WHICH OF THESE SCENARIOS IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT FORECAST ASSUMES GORDON WILL REMAIN A SEPARATE SYSTEM AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0900Z 28.7N 56.6W 105 KT 12HR VT 14/1800Z 30.1N 55.6W 105 KT 24HR VT 15/0600Z 31.4N 54.5W 90 KT 36HR VT 15/1800Z 32.3N 53.7W 80 KT 48HR VT 16/0600Z 32.8N 53.2W 70 KT 72HR VT 17/0600Z 34.5N 51.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 18/0600Z 38.0N 46.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 19/0600Z 42.0N 37.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/KNABB ** WTCA43 TJSJ 140926 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL HELENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 8 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL082006 500 AM AST EDT JUEVES 14 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...HELENE SE MUEVA RAPIDO AL OESTE SIN CAMBIO EN LA FUERZA... A LAS 500 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL HELENE ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 13.7 NORTE... LONGITUD 34.7 OESTE O COMO A 695 MILLAS...1115 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE SUR. TORMENTA TROPICAL HELENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 22 MPH 35 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. LSE PRONOSTICA QUE CONTINUE FORTALECIENDOSE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EXTIENDEN HASTA 85 MILLAS... 140 KM FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL SE ESTIMADA ES DE 1005 MILIBARAS...29.68 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 AM EDT...13.7 NORTE...34.7 OESTE. SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 22 MPH. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1005 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 AM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADO KNABB ** WTPQ20 BABJ 140900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 140900 UTC 00HR 20.4N 125.2E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 22.6N 124.0E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 27.3N 125.5E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 33.3N 131.0E 965HPA 38M/S= ** WTCA42 TJSJ 140938 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN GORDON ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 14 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL072006 500 PM EDT MIERCOLES 13 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...FUERTE HURACAN GORDON SIN NINGUNA AMENAZA A TIERRA... A LAS 500 AM EDT...0900Z..EL CENTRO DE HURACAN GORDON ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 28.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 56.6 OESTE O COMO A 550 MILLAS...885 KM...AL ESTE SURESTE DE BERMUDA. GORDON SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOR NORESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...20 KM/HR Y SE ESPERA QUE REDUZCA SU VELOCIDAD DURANTE EL POXIMO DIA O DOS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN A CERCA DE 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. GORDON PERMANECE UN PODEROSO HURACAN CATEGORIA TRES EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PROGNOSTICA ALGUN DEBILITICIMIENTO GRADUAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 30 MILLAS... 45 KM DEL CENTRO Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS...220 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 955 MILIBARAS...28.20 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 AM EDT...28.7 NORTE...56.6 OESTE. SE MUEVE...AL NOR NORESTETE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 120 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...955 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 AM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADORES BRENNAN/KNABB ** WTCA42 TJSJ 140939 CCA *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN GORDON ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 14 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL072006 500 AM EDT JUEVES 14 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...FUERTE HURACAN GORDON SIN NINGUNA AMENAZA A TIERRA... A LAS 500 AM EDT...0900Z..EL CENTRO DE HURACAN GORDON ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 28.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 56.6 OESTE O COMO A 550 MILLAS...885 KM...AL ESTE SURESTE DE BERMUDA. GORDON SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOR NORESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...20 KM/HR Y SE ESPERA QUE REDUZCA SU VELOCIDAD DURANTE EL POXIMO DIA O DOS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN A CERCA DE 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. GORDON PERMANECE UN PODEROSO HURACAN CATEGORIA TRES EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PROGNOSTICA ALGUN DEBILITICIMIENTO GRADUAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 30 MILLAS... 45 KM DEL CENTRO Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS...220 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 955 MILIBARAS...28.20 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 AM EDT...28.7 NORTE...56.6 OESTE. SE MUEVE...AL NOR NORESTETE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 120 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...955 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 AM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADORES BRENNAN/KNABB ** WTJP31 RJTD 140900 *** WARNING 140900. WARNING VALID 150900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 955 HPA AT 20.3N 125.3E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150900UTC AT 23.4N 123.9E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 140900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 140900UTC 20.3N 125.3E GOOD MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 150900UTC 23.4N 123.9E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 45HF 160600UTC 27.1N 125.5E 160NM 70% MOVE N 11KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 69HF 170600UTC 33.2N 130.8E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 19KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPH20 RPMM 140600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 17 AT 0600 14 SEPTEMBER TYPHOON (SHANSHAN) 0613 WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ZERO POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT FIVE EAST MOVING WEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX THREE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ONE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITION AT 150600 TWO ONE POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT NINE EAST AT 160600 TWO THREE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT ZERO EAST AT 170600 TWO SIX POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT EIGHT EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA. WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPZ33 KNHC 141143 *** TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM LANE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 500 AM PDT THU SEP 14 2006 ...LANE MOVING PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO...RAINBANDS AFFECTING THE COAST... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.5 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES...170 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 150 MILES...245 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WARNING AREA TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...17.2 N...103.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN