** WTSR20 WSSS 131800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 140000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 140000 UTC 00HR 20.4N 126.0E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 21.5N 124.0E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 25.0N 124.4E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 29.6N 126.1E 950HPA 45M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 140000 *** WARNING 140000. WARNING VALID 150000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 955 HPA AT 20.4N 126.0E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 22.0N 124.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 26.0N 125.2E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 30.0N 129.0E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 140000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 140000UTC 20.4N 126.0E GOOD MOVE W 07KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 150000UTC 22.0N 124.2E 80NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 160000UTC 26.0N 125.2E 160NM 70% MOVE N 10KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 72HF 170000UTC 30.0N 129.0E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 13KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 140000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 9 FOR TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 140000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE. TY WILL RECURVE WITHIN 36 HOURS FROM 140000 UTC. TY WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NORTH. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTNT42 KNHC 140245 *** TCDAT2 HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 PM EDT WED SEP 13 2006 GORDON HAS DEVELOPED AN IMPRESSIVE CLOUD PATTERN WITH A VERY DISTINCT EYE. SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS AROUND 0000 UTC WERE ABOUT 5.5 WHILE THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE...ADT...FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN IS CURRENTLY GIVING 3-HOUR ESTIMATES OF 6.0. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 105 KNOTS...WHICH IS A VALUE IN BETWEEN THESE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THIS MAKES GORDON A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BUT THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AS THE SHEAR INCREASES AND THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...GORDON SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 020 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD WEAKEN IN A DAY OR SO CAUSING GORDON TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY. BY DAY FOUR...AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL KICK GORDON OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK ENVELOPE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0300Z 27.8N 57.1W 105 KT 12HR VT 14/1200Z 29.3N 56.3W 105 KT 24HR VT 15/0000Z 31.0N 55.0W 100 KT 36HR VT 15/1200Z 31.7N 54.3W 90 KT 48HR VT 16/0000Z 32.5N 53.5W 80 KT 72HR VT 17/0000Z 33.5N 52.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 18/0000Z 37.0N 48.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 19/0000Z 41.0N 40.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTCN31 CWHX 140245 *** SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 11:45 PM ADT WEDNESDAY 13 SEPTEMBER 2006. --------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL STORM WARNING ENDED FOR: ST. JOHN'S AND VICINITY AVALON PENINSULA NORTH AVALON PENINSULA SOUTH CLARENVILLE AND VICINITY BONAVISTA PENINSULA TERRA NOVA BONAVISTA NORTH BURIN PENINSULA RAMEA - CONNAIGRE. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE NO LONGER OCCURRING IN THE ABOVE AREAS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CONSULT YOUR LOCAL PUBLIC FORECAST FOR DETAILS. NOTE..HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE WOCN31 CWHX BULLETIN. END/FOGARTY ** WTNT22 KNHC 140246 *** TCMAT2 HURRICANE GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 0300 UTC THU SEP 14 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 57.1W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 57.1W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 57.4W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 29.3N 56.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 31.0N 55.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 31.7N 54.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 32.5N 53.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 33.5N 52.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 37.0N 48.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 41.0N 40.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.8N 57.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT32 KNHC 140246 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 PM AST WED SEP 13 2006 ...GORDON BECOMES A POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH 120 MPH WINDS...MOVING OUT TO SEA... AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.1 WEST OR ABOUT 555 MILES... 895 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES GORDON IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...27.8 N...57.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT33 KNHC 140250 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 PM AST WED SEP 13 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION INTENSIFIES INTO TROPICAL STORM HELENE... AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.7 WEST OR ABOUT 565 MILES...910 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT DAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...13.3 N...32.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA ** WTPZ43 KNHC 140250 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 800 PM PDT WED SEP 13 2006 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND A LARGE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...T-NUMBERS DO NOT SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY YET. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IT IS CURRENTLY PARALLELING THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST. AVAILABLE TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. A NORTHWESTWARD TURN IS ANTICIPATED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BY THEN...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE WELL TO WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND REACHING COOLER WATERS. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK...NO CHANGES IN THE WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR MEXICO ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0300Z 16.6N 102.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 14/1200Z 17.3N 103.6W 40 KT 24HR VT 15/0000Z 18.0N 105.0W 50 KT 36HR VT 15/1200Z 18.8N 106.5W 60 KT 48HR VT 16/0000Z 19.5N 108.0W 70 KT 72HR VT 17/0000Z 20.5N 110.5W 75 KT 96HR VT 18/0000Z 22.0N 113.0W 70 KT 120HR VT 19/0000Z 24.5N 115.0W 60 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPZ23 KNHC 140251 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 0300 UTC THU SEP 14 2006 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 102.4W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 298 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 102.4W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 102.0W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.3N 103.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 18.0N 105.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 45SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.8N 106.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 45SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.5N 108.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 20.5N 110.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 22.0N 113.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 24.5N 115.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 102.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPZ33 KNHC 140251 *** TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 800 PM PDT WED SEP 13 2006 ..DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME SOON... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.4 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES...155 KM...SOUTH OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 210 MILES...335 KM...SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WARNING AREA TOMORROW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME SOON. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM SAN MARCOS THROUGH ACAPULCO TO TECOMAN...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. THIS RAIN COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...16.6 N...102.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT23 KNHC 140251 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 0300 UTC THU SEP 14 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 32.7W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 32.7W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 31.9W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 13.7N 35.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 14.7N 37.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 35NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.9N 39.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.4N 41.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 25SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 20.0N 43.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 75SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 21.5N 45.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 22.5N 49.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 32.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA ** WTNT43 KNHC 140253 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 PM AST WED SEP 13 2006 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING INDICATES CONTINUED GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT WITH A DISTINCT CURVED BAND ON THE NORTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. BASED UPON UNANIMOUS DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 2.5 AND EARLIER AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INTENSITY IS ANALYZED AT 35 KT AND IS GIVEN THE NAME HELENE. THE TROPICAL STORM APPEARS TO HAVE SPED UP WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 285/19...THOUGH THIS IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE SPREAD IN POSITIONS. HELENE SHOULD CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE. BETWEEN 36 AND 72 HOURS...A MID TO UPPER TROUGH INDUCES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND THIS MAY ACT TO STEER THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. AFTER THIS TROUGH BY-PASSES HELENE...A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK SHOULD RESUME AT DAYS 4 AND 5. ALL RELIABLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS STAIR-STEP SCENARIO...WITH NOGAPS BEING A MODEST OUTLIER TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE PACK. THE FORECAST TRACK IS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WHILE THERE IS A LARGE SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF HELENE...TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSES FROM CIRA SUGGEST THAT THIS VERY DRY AIR IS NOT REACHING HELENE'S INNER CORE. THE SYSTEM'S PROJECTED TRACK SHOULD TAKE IT OVER WARM WATER...THROUGH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INTO LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. SHIPS AND THE FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE THUS BRING HELENE UP TO ABOUT 100 KT IN THREE DAYS. THE GFDL...ON THE OTHER HAND...IS SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER...LIKELY BECAUSE IT DEPICTS MORE SHEAR BEING IMPARTED ON HELENE DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER TROUGH. AT DAYS 4 AND 5...ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SHEAR WILL PICK UP AND LIMIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO...BUT JUST BELOW...BOTH SHIPS AND THE FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0300Z 13.3N 32.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 14/1200Z 13.7N 35.0W 45 KT 24HR VT 15/0000Z 14.7N 37.4W 55 KT 36HR VT 15/1200Z 15.9N 39.5W 65 KT 48HR VT 16/0000Z 17.4N 41.0W 75 KT 72HR VT 17/0000Z 20.0N 43.5W 90 KT 96HR VT 18/0000Z 21.5N 45.5W 95 KT 120HR VT 19/0000Z 22.5N 49.0W 85 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA ** WTCA42 TJSJ 140259 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN GORDON ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 13 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL072006 500 PM EDT MIERCOLES 13 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...GORDON SE CONVIERTE EN UN HURACAN PODEROSOS CON VIENTOS DE 120 MPH...MOVIENDOSE HACIA MAR ABIERTO... A LAS 1100 PM EDT...0300Z..EL CENTRO DE HURACAN GORDON ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 27.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 57.1 OESTE O COMO A 555 MILLAS...895 KM...AL ESTE SURESTE DE BERMUDA. GORDON SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOR NORESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...20 KM/HR Y SE ESPERA QUE REDUZCA SU VELOCIDAD DURANTE EL POXIMO DIA O DOS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN A CERCA DE 120 MPH...195 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ESTO CONVIERTE A GORDON EN UN PODEROSO HURACAN CATEGORIA TRES EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ALGUNAS FLUCTUACIONES EN SU INTENSIDAD SON PROBABLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 30 MILLAS... 45 KM DEL CENTRO Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS...220 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 955 MILIBARAS...28.20 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 PM EDT...27.8 NORTE...57.1 OESTE. SE MUEVE...AL NOR NORESTETE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 120 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...955 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 AM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR AVILA ** WTCA43 TJSJ 140307 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL HELENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 7 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL042006 1100 PM AST EDT MIERCOLES 13 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...DEPRESION TROPICAL SE INTENSIFICA Y SE CONVIERTE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL HELENE... A LAS 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL HELENE ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 13.3 NORTE... LONGITUD 32.7 OESTE O COMO A 565 MILLAS...910 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE SUR. TORMENTA TROPICAL HELENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 22 MPH 35 KM/HR Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. LSE PRONOSTICA QUE CONTINUE FORTALECIENDOSE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EXTIENDEN HASTA 70 MILLAS... 110 KM FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL SE ESTIMADA ES DE 1005 MILIBARAS...29.68 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 PM EDT...13.3 NORTE...32.7 OESTE. SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 22 MPH. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1005 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 AM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADO AVILA/LANDSEA ** WTPQ20 BABJ 140300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 140300 UTC 00HR 20.4N 125.8E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 140300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 140300UTC 20.3N 125.8E GOOD MOVE W 07KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 150300UTC 22.2N 123.9E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 06KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 160000UTC 26.0N 125.2E 160NM 70% MOVE N 10KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 69HF 170000UTC 30.0N 129.0E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 13KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 140300 *** WARNING 140300. WARNING VALID 150300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 955 HPA AT 20.3N 125.8E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150300UTC AT 22.2N 123.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPH RPLL 140000 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 16 AT 0000 14 SEPTEMBER TYPHOON (SHANSHAN) (0613) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 20.4N 126.0E MOVING WEST AT 03MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 300KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 41MPS NEAR CENTER 33MPS WITHIN 100KMS RADIUS 13MPS WITHIN 300KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 150000 21.4N 123.5E AT 160000 23.7N 122.3E AT 170000 26.7N 123.3E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTNT80 EGRR 140458 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 14.09.2006 TROPICAL STORM HELENE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.3N 31.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 14.09.2006 13.3N 31.2W WEAK 12UTC 14.09.2006 14.1N 35.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.09.2006 14.5N 39.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.09.2006 15.4N 42.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2006 16.3N 45.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2006 17.1N 47.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2006 17.8N 48.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2006 19.0N 50.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2006 20.3N 51.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2006 21.8N 52.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2006 23.1N 53.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 19.09.2006 23.8N 54.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2006 24.6N 54.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY HURRICANE GORDON ANALYSED POSITION : 26.9N 57.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 14.09.2006 26.9N 57.7W MODERATE 12UTC 14.09.2006 28.4N 56.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2006 31.2N 54.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2006 32.9N 54.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2006 34.0N 53.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2006 35.1N 53.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2006 37.9N 50.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.09.2006 40.9N 46.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2006 42.1N 38.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.09.2006 43.7N 31.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2006 44.9N 25.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 19.09.2006 46.3N 21.1W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 20.09.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 102.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 14.09.2006 16.6N 102.3W WEAK 12UTC 14.09.2006 17.1N 104.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.09.2006 17.8N 105.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.09.2006 18.6N 106.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.09.2006 19.7N 107.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2006 20.8N 108.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2006 22.0N 109.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2006 22.8N 109.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2006 23.8N 109.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.09.2006 23.7N 109.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2006 23.5N 108.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2006 23.1N 109.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2006 23.1N 109.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 140458 ** WTPZ33 KNHC 140555 *** TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM LANE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 1100 PM PDT WED SEP 13 2006 ...TWELFTH NAMED STORM OF THE 2006 SEASON FORMS... ...OUTER RAINBANDS AFFECTING THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF MANZANILLO WESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM PDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.4 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES...155 KM...SOUTH OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 210 MILES...335 KM...SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WARNING AREA TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM SAN MARCOS THROUGH ACAPULCO TO TECOMAN...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 1100 PM PDT POSITION...16.5 N...102.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB