** WTCN31 CWHX 131809 *** SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3:09 PM ADT WEDNESDAY 13 SEPTEMBER 2006. --------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR: ST. JOHN'S AND VICINITY AVALON PENINSULA NORTH AVALON PENINSULA SOUTH CLARENVILLE AND VICINITY BONAVISTA PENINSULA TERRA NOVA BONAVISTA NORTH BURIN PENINSULA RAMEA - CONNAIGRE. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 KNOTS OR 70 KM/H ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE ABOVE REGIONS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GUST TO NEAR 120 KM/H IN EXPOSED COASTAL LOCATIONS. --------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL STORM WARNING ENDED FOR: CHANNEL-PORT AUX BASQUES - BURGEO. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE FLORENCE HAVE TRANSFORMED INTO AN INTENSE STORM WHICH IS NOW HITTING NEWFOUNDLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN PENINSULAS OF NEWFOUNDLAND AND THE ALL BUR WESTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. WIND GUSTS WELL IN EXCESS OF 100 KM/H HAVE BEEN OCCURRING IN MANY AREAS THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING... ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH AND EAST FACING COASTAL AREAS AROUND ALL BUT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF NEWFOUNDLAND. CONSULT YOUR LOCAL PUBLIC FORECAST FOR DETAILS. NOTE..HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE WOCN31 CWHX BULLETIN. END/BOWYER ** WTPQ20 BABJ 131800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 131800 UTC 00HR 20.4N 126.8E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 20.8N 124.4E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 22.9N 124.0E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 25.5N 124.8E 945HPA 50M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 131800 *** WARNING 131800. WARNING VALID 141800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 955 HPA AT 20.3N 126.8E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 21.5N 124.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 25.2N 124.9E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 29.1N 128.3E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 131800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 131800UTC 20.3N 126.8E GOOD MOVE W 07KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 141800UTC 21.5N 124.7E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 06KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 48HF 151800UTC 25.2N 124.9E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 10KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 72HF 161800UTC 29.1N 128.3E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 13KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 131800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 8 NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN ANALYSIS POSITION 131800UTC 20.3N 126.8E MOVEMENT W 7KT PRES/VMAX 955HPA 80KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 141800UTC 21.1N 124.9E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 950HPA 82KT 48HR POSITION 151800UTC 23.1N 124.5E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 945HPA 86KT 72HR POSITION 161800UTC 24.9N 125.3E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 945HPA 86KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTNT43 KNHC 132036 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 500 PM AST WED SEP 13 2006 SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. A CONVECTIVE BAND HAS FORMED IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT...ALTHOUGH THE BAND IS MORE THAN 100 N MI FROM THE CENTER IN MOST AREAS. THE OVERALL CIRCULATION IS MORE CIRCULAR AND BETTER DEFINED THAN 6 HR AGO. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB...AND 30 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE INITIAL POSITION IS SOUTH OF THE SATELLITE FIXES... AND THE CENTER MAY BE TRYING TO RE-FORM FARTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE CONVECTION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 275/16...WITH A POSSIBLE FASTER MOTION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE DEPRESSION REMAINS SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD FOR 24 HR OR SO. AFTER THAT...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE UKMET AND THE NOGAPS FORECAST MORE RIDGING NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION THAN THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS...AND THEY TURN THE CYCLONE TO SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT AFTER 96 HR. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE NEW FORECAST TRACK. THE CANADIAN REMAINS A LEFT OUTLIER....ALTHOUGH IT HAS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF ITS PREVIOUS TRACK. THE GFS...GFDL...AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR TO THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH THE GFDL FASTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS AFTER 72 HR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK DURING THE FIRST 24 HR...THEN IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER 72 HR. IT LIES NEAR THE SOUTH EDGE OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF GUIDANCE. THE BROAD STRUCTURE SUGGESTS THAT SHORT-TERM INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE SLOW. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE FIRST 24 HR OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN STRENGTHEN AT A FASTER RATE IN A LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...AND IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 72 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL. THERE REMAIN TWO COMPLICATING FACTORS IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THE FIRST IS DRY AIR PRESENT NORTH AND WEST OF THE CYCLONE. HOW MUCH OF THIS AIR WILL BE ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM IS UNCLEAR. THE SECOND IS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST BY THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BY 96-120 HR. WHILE THE MODELS AGREE THE TROUGH WILL EXIST...THEY DO NOT AGREE ON THE LOCATION OR ON THE POSSIBLE IMPACT TO THE CYCLONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/2100Z 12.7N 30.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 14/0600Z 12.9N 33.3W 35 KT 24HR VT 14/1800Z 13.6N 36.4W 40 KT 36HR VT 15/0600Z 14.7N 39.0W 50 KT 48HR VT 15/1800Z 16.1N 41.1W 60 KT 72HR VT 16/1800Z 18.5N 44.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 17/1800Z 20.5N 46.5W 80 KT 120HR VT 18/1800Z 22.0N 49.5W 85 KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTNT33 KNHC 132037 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 500 PM AST WED SEP 13 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.7 WEST OR ABOUT 445 MILES...720 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...29 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...12.7 N...30.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTNT23 KNHC 132038 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 2100 UTC WED SEP 13 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 30.7W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 30.7W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 29.9W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 12.9N 33.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 13.6N 36.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 45SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.7N 39.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.1N 41.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.5N 44.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 20.5N 46.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 22.0N 49.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 30.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPN31 PGTW 132100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 016 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 131800Z --- NEAR 20.3N 127.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.3N 127.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 20.5N 125.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 21.1N 124.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 22.3N 124.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 23.8N 124.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 27.0N 125.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 31.0N 128.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 35.1N 131.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 132100Z POSITION NEAR 20.4N 126.7E. TYPHOON (TY) 14W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 333 NM SOUTH OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z.// ** WTNT32 KNHC 132041 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 500 PM EDT WED SEP 13 2006 ...GORDON REACHES 110 MPH WINDS...NO THREAT TO LAND... AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.5 WEST OR ABOUT 570 MILES... 920 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHEAST MOTION SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES GORDON IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND GORDON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...27.0 N...57.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN ** WTNT22 KNHC 132042 *** TCMAT2 HURRICANE GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 2100 UTC WED SEP 13 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 57.5W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 57.5W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 57.7W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 28.5N 57.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 30.2N 55.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 31.5N 54.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 32.5N 53.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 34.0N 52.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 37.0N 48.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 41.5N 40.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.0N 57.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN ** WTCA43 TJSJ 132043 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL NUMERO OCHO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 6 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL042006 500 PM AST EDT MIERCOLES 13 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...DEPRESION TROPICAL OCHO LENTAMENTE MEJOR SU ORGANIZACION... A LAS 500 PM EDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL OCHO ESTABA ESTIMADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 12.7 NORTE... LONGITUD 30.7 OESTE O COMO A 445 MILLAS...720 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE SUR. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTA TRAYECTORIA GENERAL POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS CON ALGUN AUMENTO EN SU VELOCIDAD. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. LSE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS Y LA DEPRESION PODRIA TORNARSE EN UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA NOCHE O DURANTE EL JUEVES. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL SE ESTIMADA ES DE 1007 MILIBARAS...29.74 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 PM EDT...12.7 NORTE...30.7 OESTE. SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1007 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 PM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADO BEVEN ** WTNT42 KNHC 132043 *** TCDAT2 HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 500 PM EDT WED SEP 13 2006 GORDON HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON. THE EYE IS CLEAR AND HAS WARMED TO 14 DEGREES CELSIUS WITH SURROUNDING DEEP CONVECTION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE HURRICANE BEING INFLUENCED BY UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WHICH IS AIDING IN THE IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW AND OVERALL ORGANIZATION. DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 5.0 AND 4.5 RESPECTIVELY...AND ADT 3-HOUR AVERAGE ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS ARE 5.2. SINCE THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 95 KT. THERE ARE NO ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WHICH SHOULD HAMPER FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND GORDON IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. FOR THE FIRST 48 TO 72 HOURS...GORDON WILL REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND A RELATIVELY FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT TO SUSTAIN HURRICANE STATUS. THEREAFTER...COOLER SSTS AND A MORE HOSTILE LOWER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CAUSE GORDON TO WEAKEN AS IT TRANSITIONS TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/10. THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. GORDON SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ON A GENERAL NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IN THE SHORT-TERM WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AS THE HURRICANE ENCOUNTERS A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING PATTERN. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...GORDON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH AND INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND FOLLOWS THE GFDL...FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/2100Z 27.0N 57.5W 95 KT 12HR VT 14/0600Z 28.5N 57.0W 100 KT 24HR VT 14/1800Z 30.2N 55.9W 95 KT 36HR VT 15/0600Z 31.5N 54.7W 90 KT 48HR VT 15/1800Z 32.5N 53.7W 85 KT 72HR VT 16/1800Z 34.0N 52.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 17/1800Z 37.0N 48.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 18/1800Z 41.5N 40.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN ** WTPZ23 KNHC 132049 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 2100 UTC WED SEP 13 2006 AT 2 PM PDT... 2100 UTC... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 2 PM PDT... 2100 UTC... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 101.5W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 101.5W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 101.1W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 16.8N 102.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.6N 104.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 45SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.3N 106.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.9N 107.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 20.0N 109.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 21.5N 112.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 23.5N 114.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 101.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN ** WTCA42 TJSJ 132053 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN GORDON ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 12 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL072006 500 PM EDT MIERCOLES 13 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...GORDON ALCANZA VIENTOS DE 110 MPH...NO REPRESENTA PELIGRO PARA TIERRA... A LAS 500 PM EDT...2100Z..EL CENTRO DE HURACAN GORDON ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 27.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 57.5 OESTE O COMO A 570 MILLAS...920 KM...AL SURESTE DE BERMUDA. GORDON SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH...19 KM/HR Y SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO GENERAL HACIA EL NOR NORESTE COMENZANDO ESTA NOCHE Y CONTINUARA DURANTE EL JUEVES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN A CERCA DE 110 MPH...175 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ESTO COPNVIERTE A GORDON EN UN FUERTE HURACAN CATEGORIA DOS EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL Y SE ESPERA QUE GORDON SE CONVERTIRA EN UN HURACAN CATEGORIA TRES DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 30 MILLAS... 45 KM DEL CENTRO Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 965 MILIBARAS...28.50 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 PM EDT...27.0 NORTE...57.5 OESTE. SE MUEVE...AL NORTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 110 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...965 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 PM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR MAINELLI/BEVEN ** WTPZ43 KNHC 132053 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 200 PM PDT WED SEP 13 2006 SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS GOTTEN BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. BANDING FEATURES ARE BECOMING MORE DEFINED ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CENTER AND RADAR FROM ACAPULCO SHOWS A BROAD ROTATION WITHIN THESE BANDS. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB/SAB ARE 30 KT... AND THIS IS THE INITIALLY INTENSITY. SHIP V2HZ REPORTED WINDS OF 33 KT... BUT THIS IS NOT CONSIDERED REPRESENTATIVE OF THE CIRCULATION AS A WHOLE. HOWEVER IT DOES SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A RELATIVELY LARGE WIND FIELD... AND REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR SOUTHWEST MEXICO. WATERS OFFSHORE OF MEXICO ARE QUITE WARM... AND... COMBINED WITH LIGHT SHEAR FORECAST... INTENSIFICATION COULD BE RAPID. SHIPS SUGGESTS THERE IS ABOUT A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 25 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE OTHER HAND... THE GFDL HAS A MUCH SLOWER STRENGTHENING RATE... WHICH SEEMS A LITTLE SUSPECT GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN SHIPS... IN DEFERENCE TO THE GFDL. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 305/10. MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGING OVER MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH THE DEPRESSION TO THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN MOST GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT-TERM ACCOUNTING FOR THE INITIAL MOTION. THE FORECAST BEYOND 72 HOURS DEPENDS ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIPPING INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THE UKMET SEEMS TO MOVE THE SYSTEM MUCH TOO FAR TO THE NORTH GIVEN THE RIDGING OVER MEXICO WHILE THE GFS IS SEEMINGLY UNAFFECTED BY THE TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TO THE RIGHT OF THE GUIDANCE... AND IS JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/2100Z 16.0N 101.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 14/0600Z 16.8N 102.8W 40 KT 24HR VT 14/1800Z 17.6N 104.5W 50 KT 36HR VT 15/0600Z 18.3N 106.0W 60 KT 48HR VT 15/1800Z 18.9N 107.3W 70 KT 72HR VT 16/1800Z 20.0N 109.5W 75 KT 96HR VT 17/1800Z 21.5N 112.5W 70 KT 120HR VT 18/1800Z 23.5N 114.5W 65 KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN ** WTPZ33 KNHC 132057 *** TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 200 PM PDT WED SEP 13 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFFSHORE OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE COAST... AT 2 PM PDT... 2100 UTC... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 2 PM PDT... 2100 UTC... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.5 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES...200 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO AND ABOUT 145 MILES...235 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH... 19 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO PARALLEL AND STAY OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO. HOWEVER TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM SAN MARCOS THROUGH ACAPULCO TO TECOMAN... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. THIS RAIN COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...16.0 N...101.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN ** WTPZ33 KNHC 132057 *** TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 200 PM PDT WED SEP 13 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFFSHORE OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE COAST... AT 2 PM PDT... 2100 UTC... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 2 PM PDT... 2100 UTC... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.5 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES...200 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO AND ABOUT 145 MILES...235 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH... 19 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO PARALLEL AND STAY OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO. HOWEVER TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM SAN MARCOS THROUGH ACAPULCO TO TECOMAN... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. THIS RAIN COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...16.0 N...101.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN ** WTPH RPLL 131800 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 15 AT 1800 13 SEPTEMBER TYPHOON (SHANSHAN) (0613) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 20.4N 126.8E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT 03MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 HECTO- PASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 41MPS NEAR CENTER 33MPS WITHIN 150KMS RADIUS 13MPS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 141800 20.9N 124.2E AT 151800 24.4N 122.4E AT 161800 24.7N 122.1E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 132100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 132100 UTC 00HR 20.4N 126.5E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 21.5N 124.1E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 24.0N 124.2E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 26.9N 125.5E 950HPA 45M/S= ** WTPN31 PHNC 132200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/131521SEP2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13E WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 131800Z --- NEAR 16.0N 101.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 101.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 16.8N 102.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 17.6N 104.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 18.3N 106.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 18.9N 107.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 20.0N 109.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 21.5N 112.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 23.5N 114.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT --- REMARKS: 132200Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 101.9W. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 131521ZSEP2006 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ** WTPN31 PGTW 132100 COR *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 016A CORRECTED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 131800Z --- NEAR 20.3N 127.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.3N 127.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 20.5N 125.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 21.1N 124.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 22.3N 124.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 23.8N 124.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 27.0N 125.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 31.0N 128.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 35.1N 131.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 132100Z POSITION NEAR 20.4N 126.7E. TYPHOON (TY) 14W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM SOUTH OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED DISTANCE FROM OKINAWA IN REMARKS.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 132200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/131521SEP2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13E WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 131800Z --- NEAR 16.0N 101.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 101.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 16.8N 102.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 17.6N 104.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 18.3N 106.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 18.9N 107.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 20.0N 109.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 21.5N 112.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 23.5N 114.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT --- REMARKS: 132200Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 101.9W. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 131521ZSEP2006 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ** WTJP31 RJTD 132100 *** WARNING 132100. WARNING VALID 142100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 955 HPA AT 20.4N 126.4E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 142100UTC AT 21.8N 124.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 132100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 132100UTC 20.4N 126.4E GOOD MOVE W 07KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 142100UTC 21.8N 124.6E 80NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 151800UTC 25.2N 124.9E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 10KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 69HF 161800UTC 29.1N 128.3E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 13KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT = ** WTPN31 PHNC 132200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/131521SEP2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13E WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 131800Z --- NEAR 15.6N 101.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 101.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 16.8N 102.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 17.6N 104.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 18.3N 106.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 18.9N 107.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 20.0N 109.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 21.5N 112.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 23.5N 114.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT --- REMARKS: 132200Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 101.9W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 11 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 131521ZSEP2006 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 131530). NEXT WARNINGS AT 140400Z, 141000Z, 141600Z AND 142200Z.// ** WTPZ33 KNHC 132328 *** TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 500 PM PDT WED SEP 13 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND SQUALLS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.0 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES...170 KM...SOUTH OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH... 19 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM SAN MARCOS THROUGH ACAPULCO TO TECOMAN...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. THIS RAIN COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...16.4 N...102.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA