** WTSR20 WSSS 130600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 131200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 131200 UTC 00HR 20.3N 127.6E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 20.4N 124.8E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 22.0N 123.8E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 25.0N 124.6E 945HPA 50M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 131200 *** WARNING 131200. WARNING VALID 141200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 955 HPA AT 20.3N 127.6E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 20.7N 124.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 23.2N 124.0E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 26.3N 126.0E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 131200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 131200UTC 20.3N 127.6E GOOD MOVE W 06KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 141200UTC 20.7N 124.8E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 48HF 151200UTC 23.2N 124.0E 150NM 70% MOVE N 06KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 72HF 161200UTC 26.3N 126.0E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 09KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 131200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD07 INITIAL TIME 131200 UTC 00HR 21.4N 112.1E 1002HPA 12M/S P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 21.9N 109.9E 1002HPA 12M/S= ** WTCN31 CWHX 131256 *** SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9:56 AM ADT WEDNESDAY 13 SEPTEMBER 2006. --------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR: =NEW= TERRA NOVA =NEW= BONAVISTA NORTH ST. JOHN'S AND VICINITY AVALON PENINSULA NORTH AVALON PENINSULA SOUTH CLARENVILLE AND VICINITY BONAVISTA PENINSULA BURIN PENINSULA RAMEA - CONNAIGRE CHANNEL-PORT AUX BASQUES - BURGEO. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 KNOTS OR 70 KM/H ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE ABOVE REGIONS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GUST TO NEAR 120 KM/H IN EXPOSED COASTAL LOCATIONS. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE FLORENCE HAVE TRANSFORMED INTO AN INTENSE STORM WHICH IS NOW APPROACHING NEWFOUNDLAND. SINCE THE STORM WILL STILL POSSESS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITH HIGH WINDS WHEN IT MOVES NEAR THE AVALON PENINSULA TODAY..A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN PENINSULAS OF NEWFOUNDLAND AND THE REMAINING SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND. SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE..70 KM/H..ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THIS AREA TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 120 KM/H IN SOME AREAS. ADDITIONALLY..60 TO 90 MILLIMETRES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. CONSULT YOUR LOCAL PUBLIC FORECAST FOR DETAILS. NOTE..HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE WOCN31 CWHX BULLETIN. END/BOWYER ** WTSS20 VHHH 131345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA HAS WEAKENED INTO A AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 HECTOPASCALS. AT 131200 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ONE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (21.9 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (110.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 KNOTS. NO FURTHER WARNINGS ON THIS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY UNLESS REGENERATION TAKES PLACE. ** WTPN31 PGTW 131500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130152ZSEP06// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 015 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 131200Z --- NEAR 20.4N 127.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 127.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 20.6N 126.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 21.0N 125.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 21.8N 124.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 23.0N 124.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 25.6N 125.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 28.3N 127.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 31.0N 130.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 131500Z POSITION NEAR 20.5N 127.3E. TYPHOON (TY) 14W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM SOUTH OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTSS20 VHHH 131345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA HAS WEAKENED INTO A AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 HECTOPASCALS. AT 131200 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ONE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (21.9 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (110.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 KNOTS. NO FURTHER WARNINGS ON THIS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY UNLESS REGENERATION TAKES PLACE. ** WTNT23 KNHC 131432 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1500 UTC WED SEP 13 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 28.5W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 28.5W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 27.6W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 12.2N 30.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 12.8N 34.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 13.8N 37.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 45SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.1N 39.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.0N 43.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 20.0N 46.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 22.0N 49.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 28.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTNT33 KNHC 131433 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 AM EDT WED SEP 13 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION... AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.5 WEST OR ABOUT 335 MILES...540 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...27 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...12.0 N...28.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTNT22 KNHC 131435 *** TCMAT2 HURRICANE GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1500 UTC WED SEP 13 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 57.9W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 57.9W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 57.9W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.4N 57.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 29.2N 56.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 30.8N 55.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 32.1N 54.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 34.0N 52.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 36.5N 50.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 40.0N 44.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.0N 57.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN ** WTNT32 KNHC 131436 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 AM EDT WED SEP 13 2006 ...GORDON STRENGTHENS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC... AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.9 WEST OR ABOUT 600 MILES... 970 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GORDON IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND GORDON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...26.0 N...57.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN ** WTNT43 KNHC 131439 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 AM EDT WED SEP 13 2006 MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...WITH THE CIRCULATION ELONGATED WEST-SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST AND SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN CENTER. SCATTERED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ARE PRESENT IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES...AND THAT REMAINS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/15. THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR 24 HR OR SO. AFTER THAT...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE CANADIAN MODEL...WHICH IS A LEFT OUTLIER BRINGING THE CYCLONE TO JUST NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY 120 HR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE IN CALLING FOR A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION BY 120 HR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO A PAST TENDENCY OF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS TO MOVE TROPICAL CYCLONES TOO FAR NORTH IN THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE CURRENT BROAD AND DISORGANIZED STRUCTURE SUGGESTS THAT SHORT-TERM INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE SLOW. THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST TAKES 24 HR TO BRING THE DEPRESSION TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. AFTER THAT...THE SYSTEM SHOULD STRENGTHEN AT A FASTER RATE IN A LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...AND IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 72-96 HR. THERE ARE TWO COMPLICATING FACTORS IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THE FIRST IS DRY AIR PRESENT NORTH AND WEST OF THE CYCLONE. HOW MUCH OF THIS AIR WILL BE ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. THE SECOND IS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST BY THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BY 120 HR. WHILE THE MODELS AGREE THE TROUGH WILL EXIST...THEY DO NOT AGREE ON THE LOCATION OR ON THE POSSIBLE IMPACT TO THE CYCLONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/1500Z 12.0N 28.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 14/0000Z 12.2N 30.7W 30 KT 24HR VT 14/1200Z 12.8N 34.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 15/0000Z 13.8N 37.0W 40 KT 48HR VT 15/1200Z 15.1N 39.6W 50 KT 72HR VT 16/1200Z 18.0N 43.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 17/1200Z 20.0N 46.5W 70 KT 120HR VT 18/1200Z 22.0N 49.5W 80 KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTNT42 KNHC 131442 *** TCDAT2 HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 AM EDT WED SEP 13 2006 GORDON HAS DEVELOPED A RATHER WELL-DEFINED EYE DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 77 KT...AND THE ORGANIZATION OF THE HURRICANE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE SINCE THE 1145 UTC DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 80 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE. GORDON HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN PARTICULARLY IN THE NEAR TERM...HOWEVER BOTH THE GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ONLY TAKE GORDON TO AROUND 85 KT WHICH COULD ACTUALLY OCCUR IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST TAKES GORDON CONSERVATIVELY TO 90 KT IN 12 HOURS...BUT GORDON HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME THIS SEASON'S FIRST MAJOR HURRICANE ON THE CURRENT STRENGTHENING TREND. WITH THAT SAID...THE INTENSITY FORECAST COULD BE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY UPWARD THIS AFTERNOON. IN DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...GORDON IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS A RESULT OF COOLER SSTS AND A LESS CONDUCIVE LOWER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 010/8. GORDON IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED TO THE NORTH BETWEEN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH FLORENCE TO THE WEST. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF GORDON WHICH IS MOST LIKELY THE CAUSE FOR THE SOMEWHAT SLOW INITIAL MOTION. THE MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS WELL CLUSTERED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST...HOWEVER THE SPEED IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN...AND TAKE GORDON NORTHEASTWARD EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES BY DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND ALONG THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/1500Z 26.0N 57.9W 80 KT 12HR VT 14/0000Z 27.4N 57.4W 90 KT 24HR VT 14/1200Z 29.2N 56.6W 90 KT 36HR VT 15/0000Z 30.8N 55.5W 85 KT 48HR VT 15/1200Z 32.1N 54.5W 80 KT 72HR VT 16/1200Z 34.0N 52.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 17/1200Z 36.5N 50.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 18/1200Z 40.0N 44.0W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN ** WTCA43 TJSJ 131501 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL NUMERO OCHO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 5 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL042006 1100 AM AST EDT MIERCOLES 13 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...DEPRESION PERMANECE SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE CON POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD... A LAS 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL OCHO ESTABA ESTIMADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 12.0 NORTE... LONGITUD 28.5 OESTE O COMO A 335 MILLAS...540 KILOMETROS...AL SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE SUR. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 17 MPH Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTA TRAYECTORIA GENERAL POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS CON ALGUN AUMENTO EN SU VELOCIDAD. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. LA DEPRESION PODRIAN TORNARSE EN UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL SE ESTIMADA ES DE 1007 MILIBARAS...29.74 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 AM EDT...12.0 NORTE...28.5 OESTE. SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 17 MPH. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1007 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 PM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADO BEVEN PRONOSTICADOR RHOME/KNABB ** WTPQ20 BABJ 131500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 131500 UTC 00HR 20.3N 127.2E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTPN21 PHNC 131530 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 131521Z SEP 06// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 085 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.5N 100.3W TO 15.5N 103.5W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AT 131530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 100.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 14.5N 100.3W, APPROXIMATELY 145 NM SOUTH OF APAPULCO, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE DEEP CONVEC- TION AND A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE DIFFLUENCE AND LOW TO MODERATE VERT- ICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 141530Z.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 131500 *** WARNING 131500. WARNING VALID 141500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 955 HPA AT 20.3N 127.2E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 141500UTC AT 20.9N 124.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 131500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 131500UTC 20.3N 127.2E GOOD MOVE W 06KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 141500UTC 20.9N 124.6E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 45HF 151200UTC 23.2N 124.0E 150NM 70% MOVE N 06KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 69HF 161200UTC 26.3N 126.0E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 09KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT = ** WTSS20 VHHH 131045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 130900 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (21.5 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (111.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 90 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 131045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 130900 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (21.5 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (111.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 90 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPH RPLL 131200 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 14 AT 1200 13 SEPTEMBER TYPHOON (SHANSHAN) (0613) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ZERO POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT FIVE EAST FORECAT TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX THREE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ONE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 141200 TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT FIVE EAST AT 150600 TWO TWO POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT POINT EIGHT EAST AT 161200 TWO FOUR POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT TWO EAST ELL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTNT80 EGRR 131705 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 13.09.2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ANALYSED POSITION : 11.8N 27.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 13.09.2006 11.8N 27.3W WEAK 00UTC 14.09.2006 12.2N 30.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.09.2006 12.6N 33.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2006 13.6N 36.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2006 14.7N 39.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2006 16.2N 41.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2006 17.8N 42.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 17.09.2006 18.6N 43.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2006 18.6N 44.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2006 19.8N 45.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2006 20.5N 46.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2006 21.2N 48.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2006 21.5N 49.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE HURRICANE GORDON ANALYSED POSITION : 25.6N 58.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 13.09.2006 25.6N 58.2W MODERATE 00UTC 14.09.2006 28.2N 57.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.09.2006 29.8N 57.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2006 31.4N 56.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.09.2006 32.8N 55.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.09.2006 33.9N 54.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.09.2006 34.6N 53.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2006 35.5N 50.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.09.2006 38.1N 47.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2006 42.0N 42.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2006 44.3N 38.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2006 EXTRA-TROPICAL NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 15.5N 118.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 15.09.2006 15.5N 118.4W WEAK 12UTC 15.09.2006 15.5N 116.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2006 17.0N 116.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.09.2006 16.5N 115.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2006 17.2N 116.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2006 17.3N 116.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2006 18.1N 117.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2006 18.8N 117.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.09.2006 20.4N 118.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2006 21.2N 119.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 131705