** WTCN31 CWHX 130610 *** SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3:10 AM ADT WEDNESDAY 13 SEPTEMBER 2006. --------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR: CHANNEL-PORT AUX BASQUES - BURGEO RAMEA - CONNAIGRE BURIN PENINSULA AVALON PENINSULA SOUTH AVALON PENINSULA NORTH ST. JOHN'S AND VICINITY CLARENVILLE AND VICINITY BONAVISTA PENINSULA. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 KNOTS OR 70 KM/H ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE ABOVE REGIONS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GUST TO NEAR 120 KM/H IN EXPOSED COASTAL LOCATIONS. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE FLORENCE HAVE TRANSFORMED INTO AN INTENSE STORM WHICH IS NOW APPROACHING NEWFOUNDLAND. SINCE THE STORM WILL STILL POSSESS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITH HIGH WINDS WHEN IT MOVES NEAR THE AVALON PENINSULA TODAY..A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN PENINSULAS OF NEWFOUNDLAND AND THE REMAINING SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND. SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE..70 KM/H..ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THIS AREA TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 120 KM/H IN SOME AREAS. ADDITIONALLY..75 TO 125 MILLIMETRES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. CONSULT YOUR LOCAL PUBLIC FORECAST FOR DETAILS. NOTE..HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE WOCN31 CWHX BULLETIN. END/FOGARTY ** WTCN31 CWHX 130612 *** SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3:12 AM NDT WEDNESDAY 13 SEPTEMBER 2006. --------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR: CHANNEL-PORT AUX BASQUES - BURGEO RAMEA - CONNAIGRE BURIN PENINSULA AVALON PENINSULA SOUTH AVALON PENINSULA NORTH ST. JOHN'S AND VICINITY CLARENVILLE AND VICINITY BONAVISTA PENINSULA. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 KNOTS OR 70 KM/H ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE ABOVE REGIONS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GUST TO NEAR 120 KM/H IN EXPOSED COASTAL LOCATIONS. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE FLORENCE HAVE TRANSFORMED INTO AN INTENSE STORM WHICH IS NOW APPROACHING NEWFOUNDLAND. SINCE THE STORM WILL STILL POSSESS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITH HIGH WINDS WHEN IT MOVES NEAR THE AVALON PENINSULA TODAY..A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN PENINSULAS OF NEWFOUNDLAND AND THE REMAINING SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND. SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE..70 KM/H..ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THIS AREA TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 120 KM/H IN SOME AREAS. ADDITIONALLY..75 TO 125 MILLIMETRES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. CONSULT YOUR LOCAL PUBLIC FORECAST FOR DETAILS. NOTE..HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE WOCN31 CWHX BULLETIN. END/FOGARTY ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 130600 UTC 00HR 20.3N 128.3E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 20.9N 126.0E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 22.2N 125.6E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 24.7N 125.8E 950HPA 45M/S= ** WTIN20 DEMS 130630 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 13-09-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL, SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA AND PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL ,ANDAMAN SEA AND EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 25 DEG. NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????????? ** WTPQ20 RJTD 130600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 130600UTC 20.2N 128.3E GOOD MOVE W 08KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 140NM FORECAST 24HF 140600UTC 20.2N 125.0E 80NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 48HF 150600UTC 22.3N 123.5E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 06KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 72HF 160600UTC 25.2N 124.5E 220NM 70% MOVE N 07KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 130600 *** WARNING 130600. WARNING VALID 140600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 955 HPA AT 20.2N 128.3E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 20.2N 125.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 22.3N 123.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 25.2N 124.5E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD07 INITIAL TIME 130600 UTC 00HR 21.1N 111.7E 1000HPA 16M/S P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 21.9N 110.3E 996HPA 18M/S= ** WTKO20 RKSL 130600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 7 NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN ANALYSIS POSITION 130600UTC 20.2N 128.3E MOVEMENT W 7KT PRES/VMAX 955HPA 80KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 140600UTC 20.9N 125.6E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 950HPA 82KT 48HR POSITION 150600UTC 22.2N 124.0E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 945HPA 86KT 72HR POSITION 160600UTC 24.4N 123.7E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 945HPA 86KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTSS20 VHHH 130145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 130000 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (20.9 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (112.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140000 UTC TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (21.6 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (110.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150000 UTC TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (21.6 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (108.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160000 UTC TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (21.6 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (107.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTPQ21 RJTD 130600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 130600UTC 21.2N 112.5E POOR MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 1006HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 140600UTC 21.7N 111.8E 150NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 130600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 8 FOR TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST TY WILL RECURVE WITHIN 60 HOURS FROM 130600 UTC. TY WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NORTH. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ31 RJTD 130600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 2 FOR TD LOCATED AT N E 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 130600 UTC IS POOR BECAUSE OF OBSCURE CLOUD PATTERN. TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN DECELERATE. TD WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 12 HOURS. TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE SPIRAL CLOUD BANDS HAVE BECOME WELL ORGANIZED. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 130745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 130600 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (21.2 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (112.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140600 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 130745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 130600 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (21.2 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (112.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140600 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTCN31 CWHX 130831 *** SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 5:31 AM NDT WEDNESDAY 13 SEPTEMBER 2006. --------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR: CHANNEL-PORT AUX BASQUES - BURGEO RAMEA - CONNAIGRE BURIN PENINSULA AVALON PENINSULA SOUTH AVALON PENINSULA NORTH ST. JOHN'S AND VICINITY CLARENVILLE AND VICINITY BONAVISTA PENINSULA. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 KNOTS OR 70 KM/H ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE ABOVE REGIONS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GUST TO NEAR 120 KM/H IN EXPOSED COASTAL LOCATIONS. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE FLORENCE HAVE TRANSFORMED INTO AN INTENSE STORM WHICH IS NOW APPROACHING NEWFOUNDLAND. SINCE THE STORM WILL STILL POSSESS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITH HIGH WINDS WHEN IT MOVES NEAR THE AVALON PENINSULA TODAY..A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN PENINSULAS OF NEWFOUNDLAND AND THE REMAINING SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND. SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE..70 KM/H..ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THIS AREA TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 120 KM/H IN SOME AREAS. ADDITIONALLY..60 TO 90 MILLIMETRES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. CONSULT YOUR LOCAL PUBLIC FORECAST FOR DETAILS. NOTE..HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE WOCN31 CWHX BULLETIN. END/FOGARTY ** WTNT43 KNHC 130833 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 500 AM EDT WED SEP 13 2006 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEPRESSION IS POORLY ORGANIZED...WITH DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING DISPLACED WEST OF THE CENTER. GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A STRONG LOWER TO MID-LEVEL JET IMPINGING UPON THE DEPRESSION. UPPER-AIR SOUNDINGS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS FROM DAKAR AND SAL CAPE VERDE...ALONG WITH SPECIAL SOUNDINGS FROM THE AMMA PROJECT...SHOW THAT A STRONG 700 MB JET ACCOMPANIED THE SYSTEM AFTER IT EMERGED FROM AFRICA. ADDITIONALLY...THE METEOSAT-8 SPLIT WINDOW CHANNEL DIFFERENCING PRODUCT PRODUCED BY UW-CIMSS SHOWS A LARGE SAHARAN AIR LAYER NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THERMAL WIND BALANCE WOULD ARGUE FOR A MID-LEVEL JET ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THAT VERY WARM AND STABLE AIRMASS. UNTIL THE DEPRESSION CAN ESCAPE THIS SEEMINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT... SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING APPEARS LESS LIKELY. ADDITIONALLY...SUCH A BROAD CIRCULATION PRECLUDES SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT-TERM. THE 850-200 MB WIND SHEAR CALCULATION USED IN THE SHIPS MODEL CANNOT RESOLVE THE APPARENT MID-LEVEL SHEAR IN THIS CASE. ACCORDINGLY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BELOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...WHICH FORECASTS A HURRICANE WITHIN 48 HOURS...AND IS CLOSER TO THE MORE CONSERVATIVE GFDL. HOWEVER...TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST...THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE AN IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING. THE NEW FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT STILL ANTICIPATES A HURRICANE LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF THE SYSTEM MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO PRECISELY IDENTIFY A CENTER. TRACKING THE MEAN CENTER OF THE LARGE GYRE YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 275/14. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE STEERED AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE WILL ENCOUNTER A BREAK IN THE RIDGE RESULTING IN A GRADUAL NORTHWARD TURN AND DECELERATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES JUST SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0900Z 11.9N 26.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 13/1800Z 12.2N 29.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 14/0600Z 12.8N 32.3W 35 KT 36HR VT 14/1800Z 13.7N 35.2W 40 KT 48HR VT 15/0600Z 14.7N 37.9W 45 KT 72HR VT 16/0600Z 17.5N 42.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 17/0600Z 19.5N 45.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 18/0600Z 21.5N 47.5W 80 KT $$ FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB ** WTNT23 KNHC 130833 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 0900 UTC WED SEP 13 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 26.7W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 26.7W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 26.0W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 12.2N 29.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 12.8N 32.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 13.7N 35.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 45SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.7N 37.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.5N 42.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 19.5N 45.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 21.5N 47.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 26.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB ** WTNT33 KNHC 130834 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 500 AM EDT WED SEP 13 2006 ...DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 26.7 WEST OR ABOUT 255 MILES...405 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...11.9 N...26.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB ** WTPN31 PGTW 130900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130152ZSEP06// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 014 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130600Z --- NEAR 20.2N 128.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 128.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 20.4N 126.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 20.6N 125.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 21.0N 125.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 21.9N 124.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 24.8N 124.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 27.3N 126.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 30.3N 129.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 130900Z POSITION NEAR 20.2N 127.9E. TYPHOON (TY) 14W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM SOUTH OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 130900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130151ZSEP06// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130600Z --- NEAR 21.3N 111.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 21.3N 111.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 21.7N 110.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 22.1N 109.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 130900Z POSITION NEAR 21.4N 111.5E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 15W (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 14W (SHANSHAN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT32 KNHC 130840 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 500 AM EDT WED SEP 13 2006 ...GORDON MOVING NORTH OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.9 WEST OR ABOUT 605 MILES... 975 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GORDON IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...25.1 N...57.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/KNABB ** WTNT22 KNHC 130840 *** TCMAT2 HURRICANE GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 0900 UTC WED SEP 13 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 57.9W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 57.9W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 58.0W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 26.4N 57.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 28.1N 57.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 85SW 85NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 29.7N 56.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 30.9N 55.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 32.5N 54.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 34.0N 52.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 36.5N 49.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N 57.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/KNABB ** WTPH20 RPMM 130600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 13 ATB 0600 13 SEPTEMBER TYPHOON (SHANSHAN) {0604} WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ZERO POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT THREE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TOM PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX THREE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ONE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 140600 TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT THREE EAST AT 150600 TWO ONE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT THREE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA = ** WTNT42 KNHC 130853 *** TCDAT2 HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 500 AM EDT WED SEP 13 2006 ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE APPEARANCE OF A RAGGED EYE IN POST-ECLIPSE SATELLITE IMAGERY...DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS OF 4.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND A 0544 UTC CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE OF 63 KT...SUPPORT MAINTAINING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT. GORDON HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...HOWEVER THE SHIPS MODEL HAS BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY IN ITS INTENSITY FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SHIPS CLOSELY AND BRINGS THE INTENSITY TO 80 KT UNTIL GRADUAL WEAKENING BEGINS...PROBABLY IN ABOUT 48 TO 72 HOURS...DUE TO INCREASED SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 010/7...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED FOR THE SHORT TERM...AS GORDON MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND FOLLOWS THE SPEED OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW GORDON SLOWING DOWN BY DAY 2 OR 3 AS THE DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH FLORENCE LIFTS OUT. THE MOVEMENT OF GORDON BEYOND THAT POINT WILL DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES LATE IN THE WEEK AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE GFS SLOWS GORDON AT DAYS 3 AND 4 BEFORE MOVING IT SLOWLY NORTHWARD...WHILE THE UKMET AND NOGAPS SHOWS A MORE RAPID MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY DAY 5. TO COMPLICATE THINGS FURTHER...THE GFDL STALLS GORDON AND SHOWS ALMOST NO MOTION FROM DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER FROM DAY 3 ONWARD...TRENDING TOWARD THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0900Z 25.1N 57.9W 65 KT 12HR VT 13/1800Z 26.4N 57.7W 75 KT 24HR VT 14/0600Z 28.1N 57.2W 80 KT 36HR VT 14/1800Z 29.7N 56.5W 80 KT 48HR VT 15/0600Z 30.9N 55.8W 80 KT 72HR VT 16/0600Z 32.5N 54.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 17/0600Z 34.0N 52.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 18/0600Z 36.5N 49.5W 45 KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/KNABB ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 130900 UTC 00HR 20.3N 127.9E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 20.5N 125.0E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 22.3N 124.0E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 25.2N 124.4E 950HPA 45M/S= ** WTCA43 TJSJ 130932 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL NUMERO OCHO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 4 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL042006 500 AM AST EDT MIERCOLES 13 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...DEPRESION PERMANECE DESORGANIZDO LEJOS AL ESTE DEL ATLANTICO... A LAS 500 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL OCHO ESTABA ESTIMADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 11.9 NORTE... LONGITUD 26.7 OESTE O COMO A 255 MILLAS...405 KILOMETROS...AL SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE SUR. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTA TRAYECTORIA GENERAL POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS CON ALGUN AUMENTO EN SU VELOCIDAD. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. LA DEPRESION PODRIAN TORNARSE EN UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL DURANTE EL MIERCOLES. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL SE ESTIMADA ES DE 1007 MILIBARAS...29.74 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 AM EDT...11.9 NORTE...26.7 OESTE. SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1007 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 AM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR RHOME/KNABB ** WTCA42 TJSJ 130932 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN GORDON ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 10 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL072006 500 AM EDT MIERCOLES 13 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...GORDON SE MUEVE AL NORTE SOBRE EL ATLANTICO ABIERTO... A LAS 500 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE HURACAN GORDON ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 57.9 OESTE O COMO A 605 MILLAS...975 KM...AL NOR NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO. GORDON SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH...15 KM/HR Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN A CERCA DE 75 MPH...120 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. GORDON ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 25 MILLAS... 35 KM DEL CENTRO Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 987 MILIBARAS...29.15 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 AM EDT...25.1 NORTE...57.9 OESTE. SE MUEVE...AL NORTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 75 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...987 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 AM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN/KNABB ** WTPH RPLL 130600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 13 AT 0600 13 SEPTEMBER TYPHOON (SHANSHAN) (0604) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ZERO POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT THREE EAST FORECAT TO MVOER WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX THREE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ONE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 140600 TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT THREE EAST AT 150600 TWO ONE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT THREE EAST AT 160600 TWO THREE POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT SEVEN EAST ELL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTPQ20 RJTD 130900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 130900UTC 20.2N 127.9E GOOD MOVE W 06KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 140NM FORECAST 24HF 140900UTC 20.3N 124.9E 80NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 45HF 150600UTC 22.3N 123.5E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 06KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 69HF 160600UTC 25.2N 124.5E 220NM 70% MOVE N 07KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 130900 *** WARNING 130900. WARNING VALID 140900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 955 HPA AT 20.2N 127.9E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140900UTC AT 20.3N 124.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 130900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 130900UTC 21.3N 112.0E POOR MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 1006HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 140900UTC 21.4N 110.9E 150NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTSS20 VHHH 131045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 130900 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (21.5 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (111.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 90 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 131045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 130900 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (21.5 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (111.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 90 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTCN31 CWHX 131158 *** SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 8:58 AM ADT WEDNESDAY 13 SEPTEMBER 2006. --------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR: ST. JOHN'S AND VICINITY AVALON PENINSULA NORTH AVALON PENINSULA SOUTH CLARENVILLE AND VICINITY BONAVISTA PENINSULA BURIN PENINSULA RAMEA - CONNAIGRE CHANNEL-PORT AUX BASQUES - BURGEO. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 KNOTS OR 70 KM/H ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE ABOVE REGIONS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GUST TO NEAR 120 KM/H IN EXPOSED COASTAL LOCATIONS. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE FLORENCE HAVE TRANSFORMED INTO AN INTENSE STORM WHICH IS NOW APPROACHING NEWFOUNDLAND. SINCE THE STORM WILL STILL POSSESS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITH HIGH WINDS WHEN IT MOVES NEAR THE AVALON PENINSULA TODAY..A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN PENINSULAS OF NEWFOUNDLAND AND THE REMAINING SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND. SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE..70 KM/H..ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THIS AREA TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 120 KM/H IN SOME AREAS. ADDITIONALLY..60 TO 90 MILLIMETRES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. CONSULT YOUR LOCAL PUBLIC FORECAST FOR DETAILS. NOTE..HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE WOCN31 CWHX BULLETIN. END/FOGARTY-BOWYER