** WTSR20 WSSS 121800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 130000 UTC 00HR 20.2N 129.0E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 20.9N 126.9E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 22.2N 125.9E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 24.4N 126.0E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 130000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 130000UTC 20.1N 129.0E GOOD MOVE W 09KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 140NM FORECAST 24HF 140000UTC 20.4N 126.4E 80NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT 48HF 150000UTC 21.3N 125.2E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT 72HF 160000UTC 23.2N 124.9E 220NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 130000 *** WARNING 130000. WARNING VALID 140000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 950 HPA AT 20.1N 129.0E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 20.4N 126.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 21.3N 125.2E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 23.2N 124.9E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD07 INITIAL TIME 130000 UTC 00HR 20.9N 112.8E 1000HPA 16M/S P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 21.7N 111.0E 996HPA 18M/S= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 130000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 7 FOR TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 130000 UTC IS FAIR. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DECELERATE. TY WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NORTHWEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 130000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 130000UTC 21.0N 112.8E FAIR MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 1008HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 140000UTC 21.5N 111.8E 150NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ31 RJTD 130000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 21.0N 112.8E 1.GENERAL COMMENTS POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 130000 UTC IS FAIR. TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN DECELERATE. TD WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 12 HOURS. TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE SPIRAL CLOUD BANDS HAVE BECOME WELL ORGANIZED. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 130300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130152ZSEP06// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 013 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130000Z --- NEAR 20.2N 129.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 129.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 20.4N 127.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 20.6N 126.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 21.0N 126.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 21.8N 125.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 24.2N 126.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 26.7N 128.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 29.3N 130.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 130300Z POSITION NEAR 20.2N 128.6E. TYPHOON (TY) 14W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTSS20 VHHH 130145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 130000 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (20.9 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (112.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140000 UTC TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (21.6 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (110.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150000 UTC TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (21.6 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (108.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160000 UTC TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (21.6 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (107.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 130145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 130000 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (20.9 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (112.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140000 UTC TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (21.6 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (110.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150000 UTC TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (21.6 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (108.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160000 UTC TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (21.6 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (107.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTPN32 PGTW 130300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130151ZSEP06// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130000Z --- NEAR 21.0N 113.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 113.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 21.6N 111.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 22.1N 110.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 22.7N 109.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 130300Z POSITION NEAR 21.2N 112.6E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 15W (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 09 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 14W (SHANSHAN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT42 KNHC 130229 *** TCDAT2 HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC WITH DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDED BY A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND. MORE SIGNIFICANTLY... THERE HAS BEEN AN INTERMITTENT EYE FEATURE ON CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH WAS ALSO OBSERVED IN MICROWAVE DATA. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE BETWEEN 4.0 AND 4.5 FROM ALL AGENCIES WHILE OBJECTIVES NUMBERS REACHED 5.4 AROUND 0000 UTC. THE OBJECTIVE NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED SINCE THEN...BUT STILL SUPPORT HURRICANE STRENGTH. GORDON IS DEFINITELY STRONGER THAN EARLIER TODAY AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 65 KNOTS. ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE SHOULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. GORDON IS MOVING NORTHWARD OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND READY TO BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. HOWEVER... THESE WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY...THEREFORE NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK ENVELOPE. ONLY THE UK MODEL ACCELERATES GORDON TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DURING THE LAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST. GORDON IS NO THREAT TO LAND. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0300Z 24.4N 57.9W 65 KT 12HR VT 13/1200Z 25.6N 57.9W 75 KT 24HR VT 14/0000Z 27.5N 57.5W 85 KT 36HR VT 14/1200Z 29.0N 57.0W 85 KT 48HR VT 15/0000Z 30.5N 56.5W 85 KT 72HR VT 16/0000Z 33.0N 54.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 17/0000Z 35.0N 52.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 18/0000Z 37.0N 49.0W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT22 KNHC 130230 *** TCMAT2 HURRICANE GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 0300 UTC WED SEP 13 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 57.9W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 50SE 30SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 57.9W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 57.9W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 25.6N 57.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.5N 57.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 29.0N 57.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 30.5N 56.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 33.0N 54.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 35.0N 52.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 37.0N 49.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 57.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT32 KNHC 130230 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006 ...GORDON BECOMES A HURRICANE...FORECAST TO SPEND ITS LIFETIME OVER WATER... AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.9 WEST OR ABOUT 565 MILES... 905 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GORDON IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE...AND THE THIRD HURRICANE OF THE 2006 SEASON. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...24.4 N...57.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTCA42 TJSJ 130241 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN GORDON ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 9 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 PM EDT MARTES 12 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...GORDON SE CONVIERTE EN HURACAN...SE PRONOSTICA QUE PASARA SU VIDA SOBRE EL OCEANO... A LAS 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE HURACAN GORDON ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 57.9 OESTE O COMO A 565 MILLAS...905 KM...AL NOR NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO. GORDON SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH...15 KM/HR Y SE ESPERA CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO DURANTE EL MIERCOLES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 75 MPH...120 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. GRODON ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON...Y ES EL TERCER HURACAN DE LA ACTUAL TEMPORADA. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 25 MILLAS... 35 KM DEL CENTRO Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 987 MILIBARAS...29.15 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 PM EDT...24.4 NORTE...57.9 OESTE. SE MUEVE...AL NORTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 75 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...987 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 AM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR AVILA ** WTNT43 KNHC 130244 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006 THE DEPRESSION IS RATHER DISORGANIZED TONIGHT AND CONSISTS OF A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL SWIRLS. AN AVERAGE POSITION OF THE LARGER CIRCULATION GYRE IS USED FOR THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN INITIAL POSITION. THIS POSITION IS NUDGED SOUTHWARD A LITTLE BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... IN AGREEMENT WITH AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTING THAT THE CENTER WAS SOUTH OF 12N. CONVECTION NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE DEPRESSION IS SCANT... THOUGH THERE IS A SOMEWHAT CURVED BAND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND HEAVY CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS RACING WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 30 KT AND IS SUPPORTED BY BELIEVABLE 25-30 KT WIND VECTORS FROM QUIKSCAT. ALTHOUGH THE DEPRESSION IS OVER WARM WATER AND EXPERIENCING RELATIVELY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR... IT WILL PROBABLY TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE LARGE SYSTEM TO CONSOLIDATE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS MUCH LOWER THAN SHIPS... WHICH SEEMS TO BE MUCH TOO FAST IN MAKING THE DEPRESSION ALMOST A HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS. THE GFDL HAS A SEEMINGLY MORE REALISTIC DEPICTION OF THE FUTURE INTENSITY CHANGE... SLOW AT FIRST THEN MORE RAPID IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD... AND IS USED AS THE PRIMARY GUIDANCE FOR THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 270/14. A STRENGTHENING MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BEYOND 48 HOURS... THE RIDGE WEAKENS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ALLOWING THE DEPRESSION TO START MOVING MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE GENERALLY SHOWING MORE OF A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAN EARLIER TODAY AND... CONSEQUENTLY... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED NORTHWARD AT DAYS 3-5. THE FORECAST IS STILL ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE... AND CLOSE TO THE GFDL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0300Z 11.8N 25.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 13/1200Z 12.1N 27.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 14/0000Z 12.4N 31.3W 40 KT 36HR VT 14/1200Z 12.9N 34.8W 45 KT 48HR VT 15/0000Z 13.8N 38.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 16/0000Z 16.3N 43.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 17/0000Z 19.0N 47.0W 75 KT 120HR VT 18/0000Z 21.5N 50.0W 90 KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA ** WTNT33 KNHC 130247 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006 ...DEPRESSION PASSING SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS ESTIMATED TO BE CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 25.3 WEST OR ABOUT 215 MILES...350 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...11.8 N...25.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA ** WTNT23 KNHC 130248 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 0300 UTC WED SEP 13 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 25.3W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 25.3W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 24.6W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 12.1N 27.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 12.4N 31.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 12.9N 34.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 45SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 13.8N 38.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.3N 43.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 19.0N 47.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 21.5N 50.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 25.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA ** WTCA43 TJSJ 130254 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL NUMERO OCHO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 3 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL042006 1100 PM AST EDT MARTES 12 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...DEPRESION PASANDO AL SUR DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE... A LAS 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...LA GRAN CIRCULACION DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL OCHO ESTABA ESTIMADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 11.8 NORTE... LONGITUD 25.3 OESTE O COMO A 215 MILLAS...350 KILOMETROS...AL SUR SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE SUR. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTA TRAYECTORIA GENERAL POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS CON ALGUN AUMENTO EN SU VELOCIDAD. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. LA DEPRESION PODRIAN TORNARSE EN UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL DURANTE EN EL MIERCOLES. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL SE ESTIMADA ES DE 1007 MILIBARAS...29.74 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM EDT...11.8 NORTE...25.3 OESTE. SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1007 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 AM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE/AVILA ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 130300 UTC 00HR 20.2N 128.6E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTJP31 RJTD 130300 *** WARNING 130300. WARNING VALID 140300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 950 HPA AT 20.2N 128.6E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140300UTC AT 20.4N 126.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 130300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 130300UTC 20.2N 128.6E GOOD MOVE W 09KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 140NM FORECAST 24HF 140300UTC 20.4N 126.0E 80NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT 45HF 150000UTC 21.3N 125.2E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT 69HF 160000UTC 23.2N 124.9E 220NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT = ** WTPH RPLL 130000 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 12 AT 0000 13 SEPTEMBER TYPHOON (SHANSHAN) (0613) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ZERO POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADUIS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX THREE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ONE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADUIS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN FIVE THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADUIS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 140000 TWO POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT SIX EAST 150000 TWO POINT TWO POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT ZERO EAST 160000 TWO THREE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT THREE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD. WEATHER MANILA ** WTPQ21 RJTD 130300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 130300UTC 21.2N 112.6E FAIR MOVE NW 06KT PRES 1008HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 140300UTC 21.6N 111.6E 150NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTSS20 VHHH 130445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 130300 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (21.2 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (112.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140300 UTC TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (21.8 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (110.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150300 UTC TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (21.8 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (108.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160300 UTC TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (21.8 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (106.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 130445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 130300 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (21.2 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (112.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140300 UTC TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (21.8 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (110.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150300 UTC TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (21.8 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (108.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160300 UTC TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (21.8 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (106.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTNT80 EGRR 130515 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 13.09.2006 HURRICANE FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 39.6N 58.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 13.09.2006 39.6N 58.9W STRONG 12UTC 13.09.2006 44.5N 56.2W EXTRA-TROPICAL TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ANALYSED POSITION : 11.8N 24.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 13.09.2006 11.8N 24.5W WEAK 12UTC 13.09.2006 11.9N 27.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2006 12.3N 30.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.09.2006 13.3N 33.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.09.2006 14.4N 36.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2006 16.0N 38.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2006 17.7N 40.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.09.2006 19.2N 41.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2006 20.3N 43.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.09.2006 21.5N 44.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2006 22.6N 45.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2006 23.5N 46.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2006 25.0N 48.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY HURRICANE GORDON ANALYSED POSITION : 23.9N 58.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 13.09.2006 23.9N 58.2W MODERATE 12UTC 13.09.2006 25.7N 57.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.09.2006 27.6N 57.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.09.2006 29.7N 57.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2006 31.2N 56.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.09.2006 32.4N 56.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.09.2006 33.2N 55.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.09.2006 34.0N 53.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2006 35.4N 51.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.09.2006 36.8N 50.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2006 38.5N 46.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.09.2006 40.7N 42.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2006 42.7N 36.2W EXTRA-TROPICAL NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+36: 10.7N 121.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.09.2006 10.7N 121.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2006 14.4N 118.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2006 15.3N 117.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2006 15.5N 118.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2006 15.2N 119.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2006 15.2N 120.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.09.2006 15.6N 121.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2006 15.8N 122.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2006 15.8N 123.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2006 15.6N 123.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 130515