** WTCN31 CWHX 121803 *** SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3:03 PM ADT TUESDAY 12 SEPTEMBER 2006. --------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR: CHANNEL-PORT AUX BASQUES - BURGEO RAMEA - CONNAIGRE BURIN PENINSULA AVALON PENINSULA SOUTH AVALON PENINSULA NORTH ST. JOHN'S AND VICINITY CLARENVILLE AND VICINITY BONAVISTA PENINSULA. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 KNOTS OR 70 KM/H ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY OVER THE ABOVE REGIONS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GUST TO NEAR 120 KM/H. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== HURRICANE FLORENCE WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN INTENSE POST-TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND TODAY. SINCE THE STORM WILL STILL POSSESS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WHEN IT MOVES NEAR THE AVALON PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY..A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN PENINSULAS OF NEWFOUNDLAND AND THE REMAINING SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND. SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE..70 KM/H..ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THIS AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 120 KM/H. ADDITIONALLY..75 TO 125 MILLIMETRES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. CONSULT YOUR LOCAL PUBLIC FORECAST FOR DETAILS. NOTE..HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE WOCN31 CWHX BULLETIN. END/BOWYER ** WTPQ20 BABJ 121800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 121800 UTC 00HR 20.2N 130.2E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 21.0N 128.0E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 22.1N 126.4E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 23.9N 126.0E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 121800 *** WARNING 121800. WARNING VALID 131800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 945 HPA AT 20.0N 130.1E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 20.4N 127.5E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 21.2N 126.3E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 23.2N 125.7E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 121800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 121800UTC 20.0N 130.1E GOOD MOVE W 08KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 140NM FORECAST 24HF 131800UTC 20.4N 127.5E 80NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 48HF 141800UTC 21.2N 126.3E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 72HF 151800UTC 23.2N 125.7E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 121800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 6 NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN ANALYSIS POSITION 121800UTC 20.0N 130.1E MOVEMENT W 8KT PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 131800UTC 20.8N 127.8E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT 48HR POSITION 141800UTC 21.9N 126.6E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 930HPA 99KT 72HR POSITION 151800UTC 23.8N 126.4E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 930HPA 99KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ21 RJTD 121800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 121800UTC 20.7N 113.8E POOR MOVE W 11KT PRES 1004HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 131800UTC 20.0N 112.0E 150NM 70% MOVE WSW SLOWLY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTSS20 VHHH 121945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 121800 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (20.6 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (113.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131800 UTC TWO ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (21.4 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (111.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141800 UTC TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (21.6 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (109.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151800 UTC TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (21.6 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (108.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 121945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 121800 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (20.6 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (113.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131800 UTC TWO ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (21.4 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (111.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141800 UTC TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (21.6 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (109.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151800 UTC TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (21.6 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (108.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTNT41 KNHC 122032 *** TCDAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 37 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006 FLORENCE IS QUICKLY BECOMING A LARGE AND POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE ONLY CONVECTION REMAINING NEAR THE CENTER IS A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ABOUT 100 NM NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THIS BAND MAY ACTUALLY BE ASSOCIATED MORE WITH THE PRE-EXISTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS BEING ADVECTED INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. SHIP AND BUOY REPORTS AND AN EXPERIMENTAL SURFACE ADJUSTED CLOUD DRIFT WIND PRODUCT FROM UW-CIMSS INDICATE THAT THE WINDS FIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND. THE EXTRATROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG AS IT PASSES SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND IN DAY OR SO. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 045/17. FLORENCE HAS BEEN TRACKING ALONG THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS ONCE AGAIN ADJUSTED EASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT FLORENCE COULD BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER LOW PRESSURE AREA A LITTLE SOONER THAN SHOWN. LARGE NORTHEASTERLY SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PRODUCING ROUGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG MOST OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FOR ANOTHER COUPLE DAYS. THE RADII OF 12-FT SEAS SHOWN IN THE FORECAST/ADVISORY DOES NOT FULLY ACCOUNT FOR THIS HUGE AREA OF HIGH WAVES INDIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH FLORENCE. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON FLORENCE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/2100Z 39.3N 59.3W 65 KT 12HR VT 13/0600Z 41.8N 56.3W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 13/1800Z 45.0N 52.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 14/0600Z 47.2N 46.4W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 14/1800Z 48.0N 40.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 15/1800Z 49.5N 24.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 16/1800Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH ** WTNT33 KNHC 122032 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006 ...DEPRESSION NEARING STORM STRENGTH... SATELLITE IMAGES AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC IS GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING. AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 23.9 WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES...315 KM...SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...12.0 N...23.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTNT23 KNHC 122032 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 2100 UTC TUE SEP 12 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 23.9W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 23.9W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 23.2W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 12.0N 26.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 12.3N 29.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 12.6N 33.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 13.3N 36.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.5N 42.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 17.5N 46.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 20.0N 50.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 23.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTNT43 KNHC 122033 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006 SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION IS GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED WITH FAIRLY PROMINENT BANDING FEATURES OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER THE CENTER IS STILL RATHER BROAD AND ELONGATED...AND THE AREA OF CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER IS MOVING WESTWARD AND BECOMING MORE SEPARATED FROM THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE. A SHIP REPORT FROM A VESSEL WITH CALL SIGN OVZV2 OF NORTHERLY WINDS OF 36 KT AND A PRESSURE OF 1008.7 MB SOME 180 N MI NORTHWEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS WIND OBSERVATION WAS IN CONVECTION...PROBABLY A LOCALIZED SQUALL...AND NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE STRENGTH OF THE CIRCULATION. MOREOVER...A QUALITY CONTROL CHECK OF THIS SHIP BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER INDICATED THAT ITS WIND MEASUREMENTS WERE A FEW KNOTS TOO HIGH AND ITS PRESSURE HAS BEEN RUNNING 1-2 MB LOW. HAVING SAID ALL THAT...THE SYSTEM IS NEARING TROPICAL STORM STATUS AND WILL PROBABLY BE NAMED TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY. MODEST EASTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY PREVAILS OVER THE AREA...AND SINCE THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY WARM... STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM. GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER IN THE DETAILS OF THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR 40-45W NORTH OF 15N...BUT IN GENERAL THEY SUGGEST THAT IT WILL BECOME LESS INFLUENTIAL IN SEVERAL DAYS. THE SHIPS MODEL...USING THE GFS FORECAST FIELDS AS INPUT...SHOWS WEAK SHEAR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. I AM NOT TOTALLY CONFIDENT THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN SO FAVORABLE...SO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE SHIPS OUTPUT AND JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE. A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD RELOCATION OF THE CENTER HAS BEEN DONE FOR THIS PACKAGE...CONSISTENT WITH MICROWAVE IMAGERY...AND THE FORWARD SPEED HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER. CURRENT MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/13. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SUGGESTING A STRENGTHENING OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. BY DAY 3 HOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL RESPOND TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR OR JUST WEST OF 50W...AND BEGIN TO TURN TOWARD THE RIGHT. THE LATEST GFS...U.K. MET OFFICE...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS BUT IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS NEAR THE LEFT EDGE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/2100Z 12.0N 23.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 13/0600Z 12.0N 26.3W 40 KT 24HR VT 13/1800Z 12.3N 29.5W 45 KT 36HR VT 14/0600Z 12.6N 33.1W 50 KT 48HR VT 14/1800Z 13.3N 36.7W 60 KT 72HR VT 15/1800Z 15.5N 42.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 16/1800Z 17.5N 46.0W 85 KT 120HR VT 17/1800Z 20.0N 50.0W 95 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTNT31 KNHC 122035 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 500 PM AST TUE SEP 12 2006 ...FLORENCE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY.... RESIDENTS IN EXTREME EASTERN CANADA SHOULD CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.3 WEST OR ABOUT 600 MILES... 965 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS FLORENCE BECOMES A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 415 MILES...665 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS... INCLUDING STRONG RIP CURRENTS... ARE AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS... AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR DETAILS ON COASTAL CONDITIONS. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...39.3 N...59.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB. THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH ** WTNT21 KNHC 122035 *** TCMAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 2100 UTC TUE SEP 12 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 59.3W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 90NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT.......180NE 180SE 120SW 120NW. 34 KT.......360NE 300SE 240SW 300NW. 12 FT SEAS..475NE 375SE 450SW 450NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 59.3W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 60.2W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 41.8N 56.3W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 120NW. 34 KT...360NE 300SE 240SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 45.0N 52.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 120SE 120SW 0NW. 50 KT...150NE 210SE 210SW 150NW. 34 KT...300NE 360SE 300SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 47.2N 46.4W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 180SE 180SW 0NW. 34 KT...240NE 360SE 360SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 48.0N 40.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 180SE 180SW 0NW. 34 KT...240NE 360SE 360SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 49.5N 24.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 420SE 360SW 240NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.3N 59.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON FLORENCE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH ** WTPN31 PGTW 122100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 012 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 121800Z --- NEAR 20.1N 130.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.1N 130.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 20.4N 128.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 20.8N 127.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 21.3N 127.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 22.0N 126.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 24.0N 126.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 26.3N 128.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 28.8N 130.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 122100Z POSITION NEAR 20.2N 129.9E. TYPHOON (TY) 14W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 15W (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTCA43 TJSJ 122038 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL NUMERO OCHO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 2 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL042006 1100 AST EDT MARTES 12 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...DEPRESION ACERCANDOSE A INTENSIDAD DE TORMENTA TROPICAL... LAS IMAGENES DEL SATELITE INDICAN QUE UNA DEPRESION TROPICAL SOBRE EL LEJANO ATLANTICO ORIENTAL SE FORTALECE GRADUALMENTE... A LAS 500 PM EDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL OCHO ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 12.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 23.9 OESTE O COMO A 195 MILLAS...315 KILOMETROS...AL SUR DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE SUR. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTA TRAYECTORIA GENERAL POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO Y ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y LA DEPRESION PODRIAN TORNARSE EN UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA NOCHE O TEMPRANO EN EL MIERCOLES. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL SE ESTIMADA ES DE 1007 MILIBARAS...29.74 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM EDT...12.0 NORTE...23.9 OESTE. SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1007 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 PM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR PASCH ** WTNT42 KNHC 122047 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006 THE OVERALL SIZE OF GORDON HAS EXPANDED AND THE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED IN APPEARANCE DURING THE DAY WITH OUTFLOW WELL ESTABLISHED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND IMPROVING IN THE SW QUADRANT. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB AND AFWA ARE ALL 55 KT...WHICH IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. BASED ON THE LATEST GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES... THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW DUE NORTH...360/6. GORDON REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NARROW MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH A PRONOUNCED BREAK ASSOCIATED WITH FLORENCE TO ITS NORTH. A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...LOCATED ABOUT 950 NMI TO THE NORTHEAST OF GORDON IS MOVING WESTWARD BUT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A SHEAR AXIS WELL TO THE EAST OF GORDON...MAKING IT LESS LIKELY TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AND CAPTURE A NORTHWARD-MOVING GORDON BEYOND 72 HOURS AND ALLOW RECURVATURE INTO THE WESTERLIES. ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AIR WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WHICH...AS NOTED ABOVE...IS BECOMING LESS OF AN INHIBITING FACTOR FOR THE INTENSIFICATION OF GORDON. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE... BUT NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL...WHICH STILL MAKES GORDON A 90 KT HURRICANE IN 72 HOURS. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO RECURVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND ENCOUNTERS WESTERLY SHEAR...GORDON SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/2100Z 23.7N 58.4W 55 KT 12HR VT 13/0600Z 24.6N 58.5W 65 KT 24HR VT 13/1800Z 26.0N 58.5W 75 KT 36HR VT 14/0600Z 27.7N 58.5W 80 KT 48HR VT 14/1800Z 29.5N 58.0W 80 KT 72HR VT 15/1800Z 33.0N 56.0W 75 KT 96HR VT 16/1800Z 36.5N 52.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 17/1800Z 40.0N 46.0W 55 KT $$ FORECASTER COBB/PASCH ** WTNT22 KNHC 122050 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 2100 UTC TUE SEP 12 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 58.4W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 58.4W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 58.4W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 24.6N 58.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 26.0N 58.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 40SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 27.7N 58.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 29.5N 58.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 33.0N 56.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 36.5N 52.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 40.0N 46.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.7N 58.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER COBB/PASCH ** WTNT32 KNHC 122050 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006 ...GORDON CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...NOW MOVING NORTH... AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.4 WEST OR ABOUT 505 MILES...815 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND GORDON COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...23.7 N...58.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER COBB/PASCH ** WTCA42 TJSJ 122057 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL GORDON ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 8 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL072006 500 PM EDT MARTES 12 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...GORDON CONTINUA FORTALECIENDOSE...AHORA SE MUEVE AL NORTE... A LAS 500 PM EDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL GORDON ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 23.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 58.4 OESTE O COMO A 505 MILLAS...815 KM...AL NOR NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO. GORDON SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOR-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH...11 KM/HR Y SE ESPERA CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 65 MPH...100 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL Y GORDON PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN ESTA NOCHE O DURANTE EL MIERCOLES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 994 MILIBARAS...29.35 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 PM EDT...23.7 NORTE...58.4 OESTE. SE MUEVE...AL NORTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 65 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...994 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 PM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR COBB/PASCH ** WTPQ31 PGUM 122105 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TYPHOON SHANSHAN (14W) ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 AM GUAM LST WED SEP 13 2006 ...TYPHOON SHANSHAN ROAMING SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 7 AM GUAM LST..2100Z..THE CENTER OF TYPHOON SHANSHAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 129.9 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 1085 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM AND 920 MILES NORTHWEST OF YAP. TYPHOON SHANSHAN IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH. SHANSHAN IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS SHANSHAN CLOSER TO OKINAWA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 105 MPH. TYPHOON SHANSHAN IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...20.2 DEGREES NORTH AND 129.9 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 105 MPH. THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ON TYPHOON SHANSHAN. $$ MCELROY ** WTPN31 PGTW 122100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/121952ZSEP06// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 012 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 121800Z --- NEAR 20.1N 130.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.1N 130.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 20.4N 128.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 20.8N 127.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 21.3N 127.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 22.0N 126.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 24.0N 126.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 26.3N 128.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 28.8N 130.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 122100Z POSITION NEAR 20.2N 129.9E. TYPHOON (TY) 14W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 15W (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 122100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/121951ZSEP06// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 121800Z --- NEAR 20.6N 113.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 113.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 21.2N 111.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 21.7N 110.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 22.3N 109.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 122100Z POSITION NEAR 20.8N 113.1E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 15W (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 121421Z SEP 06 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 121430). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 14W (SHANSHAN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 122100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 122100 UTC 00HR 20.2N 129.6E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 20.8N 127.3E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 22.1N 125.8E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 24.2N 125.8E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTPH RPLL 121800 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 11 AT 1800 12 SEPTEMBER TYPHOON (SHANSHAN) (0613) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 20.1N 130.2E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT 03MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 HECTO- PASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 41MPS NEAR CENTER 25MPS WITHIN 150KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 131800 20.3N 127.3E 141800 21.0N 124.4E 151800 22.2N 121.6E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 122100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 122100UTC 20.1N 129.6E GOOD MOVE W 09KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 140NM FORECAST 24HF 132100UTC 20.2N 127.1E 80NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 45HF 141800UTC 21.2N 126.3E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 69HF 151800UTC 23.2N 125.7E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 122100 *** WARNING 122100. WARNING VALID 132100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 945 HPA AT 20.1N 129.6E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 132100UTC AT 20.2N 127.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPH20 RPMM 121800 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 11 AT 1800 12 SEPTEMBER TYPHOON [SHANSHAN] (0613) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ZERO POINT ONE NORTH ONE THREE ZERO POINT TWO EAST FORECAST TO MOVED WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO THRE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX THREE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ONE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 131800 TWO ZERO POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT THREE EAST 141800 TWO ONE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT FOUR EAST 151800 TWO TWO POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT ONE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 122100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 122100UTC 20.8N 113.2E FAIR MOVE W 10KT PRES 1004HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 132100UTC 21.1N 112.3E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTSS20 VHHH 121645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 121500 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (20.6 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (114.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131500 UTC TWO ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (21.5 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (112.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141500 UTC TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (21.6 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (110.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151500 UTC TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (21.6 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (108.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 122245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 122100 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (20.7 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (113.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 132100 UTC TWO ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (21.5 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (111.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 142100 UTC TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (21.6 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (109.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 152100 UTC TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (21.6 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (107.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 122245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 122100 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (20.7 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (113.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 132100 UTC TWO ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (21.5 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (111.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 142100 UTC TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (21.6 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (109.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 152100 UTC TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (21.6 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (107.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.