** WTSR20 WSSS 120600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 121200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 121200 UTC 00HR 20.1N 130.9E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 20.9N 128.4E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 21.6N 126.5E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 23.2N 126.0E 930HPA 55M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 121200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 121200UTC 20.1N 131.0E GOOD MOVE NW 07KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 140NM FORECAST 24HF 131200UTC 20.5N 128.4E 80NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 48HF 141200UTC 21.3N 126.7E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 72HF 151200UTC 22.8N 125.9E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 925HPA MXWD 095KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 121200 *** WARNING 121200. WARNING VALID 131200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 945 HPA AT 20.1N 131.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 20.5N 128.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 21.3N 126.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 22.8N 125.9E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 121500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 121200Z --- NEAR 20.0N 130.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 130.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 20.4N 129.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 20.7N 128.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 21.1N 127.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 21.9N 127.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 23.8N 126.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 25.7N 127.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 28.0N 129.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 121500Z POSITION NEAR 20.1N 130.6E. TYPHOON 14W (SHANSHAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.// ** WTSS20 VHHH 121345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 121200 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (20.3 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (114.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131200 UTC TWO ONE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (21.3 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (113.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141200 UTC TWO ONE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (21.3 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (111.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151200 UTC TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (21.2 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (109.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 121345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 121200 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (20.3 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (114.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131200 UTC TWO ONE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (21.3 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (113.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141200 UTC TWO ONE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (21.3 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (111.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151200 UTC TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (21.2 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (109.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. ** WTPN21 PGTW 121430 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 121421Z SEP 06// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.9N 115.2E TO 22.1N 113.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 121130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 115.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 20.1N 115.2E, APPROXIMATELY 140 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO PERSIST NEAR A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 120945Z WINDSAT IMAGE AND CURRENT HONG KONG RADAR IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS IN A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH WELL DEFINED POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. STRENGTHENING HAS BEEN SLOW DUE TO COOL DRY AIR ENTERING THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. BASED ON THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 131430Z.// ** WTNT33 KNHC 121431 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006 ...EIGHTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SHIP REPORTS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA YESTERDAY. AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 23.0 WEST OR ABOUT 185 MILES...295 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...12.5 N...23.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTNT43 KNHC 121431 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006 THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT EMERGED FROM AFRICA YESTERDAY HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND HAS FORMED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM AND DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE AT T1.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB. TWO REPORTS OF NORTHERLY 19 KT AND SOUTHERLY 10 KT WINDS...FROM SHIPS WITH CALL SIGNS PBCJ AND UCAB RESPECTIVELY...CONFIRM THE PRESENCE OF A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. BASED ON THE ABOVE DATA...ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT. PRESENTLY THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK EASTERLY SHEAR AND IT SHOULD BE TRAVERSING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 28C. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR 40W-45W NORTH OF 15N AND THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IF THIS SCENARIO VERIFIES...THE ENVIRONMENT COULD BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT PRESUMES THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE ABLE TO EVENTUALLY STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE. THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THE CURRENTLY AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/16. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BE STEERED BY EASTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD....THERE ARE DIFFERENCES OF OPINION AMONGST THE DYNAMICAL TRACK PREDICTION MODELS. THE U.K. MET OFFICE AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS TURN THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD TO THE EAST OF 50W...WHEREAS THE GFS FORECASTS LESS OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR 50W AND TAKES THE SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS BETWEEN THESE POSSIBILITIES AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE TRACK DEPICTED IN THE 0600 UTC GFDL RUN. THIS MORNING...DROPSONDES ARE BEING LAUNCHED FROM A DC-8 AIRCRAFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE SYSTEM AS PART OF THE AFRICAN MONSOON MULTIDISCIPLINARY ANALYSIS PROJECT...AMMA. THESE SOUNDING DATA ARE BEING INCORPORATED INTO THE GLOBAL TELECOMMUNICATIONS SYSTEM AND...HOPEFULLY...INTO THE GLOBAL MODELS TO IMPROVE THE INITIALIZATION OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/1500Z 12.5N 23.0W 25 KT 12HR VT 13/0000Z 12.7N 25.3W 30 KT 24HR VT 13/1200Z 13.0N 28.4W 35 KT 36HR VT 14/0000Z 13.5N 31.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 14/1200Z 14.0N 34.8W 50 KT 72HR VT 15/1200Z 15.5N 41.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 16/1200Z 17.0N 47.0W 75 KT 120HR VT 17/1200Z 19.0N 51.0W 85 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTNT23 KNHC 121431 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1500 UTC TUE SEP 12 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 23.0W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 23.0W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 22.2W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 12.7N 25.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 13.0N 28.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 13.5N 31.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 14.0N 34.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.5N 41.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 17.0N 47.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 19.0N 51.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 23.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTNT22 KNHC 121436 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1500 UTC TUE SEP 12 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 58.3W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 25SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 58.3W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 58.2W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 24.4N 58.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 25.8N 58.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.4N 58.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 29.0N 58.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 32.0N 57.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 35.0N 54.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 39.1N 49.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 58.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER COBB/PASCH ** WTNT31 KNHC 121437 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 1100 AM AST TUE SEP 12 2006 ...FLORENCE BEGINNING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...MOVING TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES... RESIDENTS IN EXTREME EASTERN CANADA SHOULD CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.2 WEST OR ABOUT 715 MILES...1155 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS FLORENCE TRANSITIONS INTO A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 415 MILES...665 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS... INCLUDING STRONG RIP CURRENTS... ARE AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS... PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR DETAILS ON COASTAL CONDITIONS. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...38.2 N...61.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH ** WTNT21 KNHC 121438 *** TCMAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 1500 UTC TUE SEP 12 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.2N 61.2W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT.......120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. 34 KT.......360NE 300SE 240SW 360NW. 12 FT SEAS..475NE 375SE 450SW 450NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.2N 61.2W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 62.0W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 40.6N 58.7W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 90SE 90SW 30NW. 50 KT...120NE 150SE 150SW 150NW. 34 KT...360NE 360SE 300SW 360NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 43.9N 55.1W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 90SE 90SW 30NW. 50 KT...100NE 180SE 150SW 120NW. 34 KT...300NE 360SE 300SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 46.5N 50.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 200SE 200SW 90NW. 34 KT...240NE 360SE 300SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 47.8N 44.6W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 150SE 150SW 0NW. 34 KT...200NE 420SE 360SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 49.5N 30.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 420SE 360SW 240NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.2N 61.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH ** WTNT32 KNHC 121439 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006 ...GORDON MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...NO THREAT TO LAND... AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.3 WEST OR ABOUT 490 MILES...790 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR... AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...23.4 N...58.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER COBB/PASCH ** WTCA43 TJSJ 121441 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL NUMERO OCHO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 1 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL042006 1100 AST EDT MARTES 12 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...LA DEPRESION OCTAVA DE LA TEMPORADA SE FORMA LEJOS SOBRE LA ESTE DEL ATLANTICO TROPICAL... LOS INFORMES DE LOS BARCOS Y LAS IMAGENES DEL SATELITE INDICAN QUE UNA DEPRESION TROPICAL SE HA FORMADO DE LA ONDA TROPICAL QUE SE MOVIO FUERA DE LA COSTA OESTE DE AFRICA AYER. A LAS 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL OCHO ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 12.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 23.0 OESTE O COMO A 185 MILLAS...295 KILOMETROS...AL SUR-SURESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE SUR. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTA TRAYECTORIA GENERAL POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y LA DEPRESION PODRIAN TORNARSE EN UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL EN LOS PROXIMOS UNO O DOS DIAS. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL SE ESTIMADA ES DE 1007 MILIBARAS...29.74 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM EDT...12.5 NORTE...23.0 OESTE. SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...30 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1007 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 PM EDT. $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 121448 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL GORDON ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 7 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 AM EDT MARTES 12 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...GORDON SE ESTA MOVIENDO AL NOR-NOROESTE...NO ES AMENAZA PARA TIERRA... A LAS 1100 AM EDT...0500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL GORDON ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 23.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 58.3 OESTE O COMO A 490 MILLAS...790 KM...AL NOR-NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO. GORDON SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOR-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH...15 KM/HR Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE EN UN DIA O DOS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1000 MILIBARAS...29.53 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 AM EDT...23.4 NORTE...58.3 OESTE. SE MUEVE...AL NOR-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1000 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 PM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR COBB/PASCH ** WTNT41 KNHC 121450 *** TCDAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006 FLORENCE APPEARS TO BE WELL INTO ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BECOMING CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...ALONG THE PRE-EXISTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF EASTERN CANADA. AS FLORENCE INTERACTS WITH THIS FRONT...MOVES OVER COOLER WATER...AND CONTINUES TO DRAW IN STABLE AIR...IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN 12 HOURS. DESPITE THE LESS IMPRESSIVE APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING...A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 0902 UTC...DETECTED SOME HURRICANE- FORCE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PASS. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. DUE TO INTERACTIONS WITH A TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA...AND THE ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC SOURCE OF ENERGY...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED AS FLORENCE PASSES JUST SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. FLORENCE IS MOVING JUST A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK WITH AN ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION OF 035/16. TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. LARGE NORTHEASTERLY SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ROUGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG MOST OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE BAHAMAS FOR ANOTHER FEW DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/1500Z 38.2N 61.2W 65 KT 12HR VT 13/0000Z 40.6N 58.7W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 13/1200Z 43.9N 55.1W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 14/0000Z 46.5N 50.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 14/1200Z 47.8N 44.6W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 15/1200Z 49.5N 30.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 16/1200Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH ** WTNT22 KNHC 121453 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1500 UTC TUE SEP 12 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 58.3W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 25SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 58.3W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 58.2W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 24.4N 58.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 25.8N 58.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.4N 58.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 29.0N 58.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 32.0N 57.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 35.0N 54.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 39.0N 49.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 58.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTNT42 KNHC 121453 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006 A MICROWAVE PASS FROM 0730 UTC...A 1023 WINDSAT PASS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WERE INSTRUMENTAL IN LOCATING THE CENTER OF GORDON. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB AND AFWA AVERAGE 50 KT...WHICH IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE WHICH IS RESTRICTING THE OUTFLOW IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AND MAY ALSO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE TEMPORARY LEVELING OFF IN THE INTENSITY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...345/8. GORDON IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NARROWING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH A PRONOUNCED BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH FLORENCE TO ITS NORTH. A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...LOCATED ABOUT 1000 NMI TO THE NORTHEAST OF GORDON IS MOVING WESTWARD AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE AS INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. THIS WILL ALLOW GORDON TO TURN NORTHWARD AND SLOWLY RECURVE AFTER 48 HOURS. ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. THE GFS...WHICH HAD BEEN AN OUTLIER...NOW ALSO RECURVES GORDON. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL WHICH MAKES GORDON A 95 KT HURRICANE IN 48 HOURS. GORDON IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AIR WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WHICH COULD BE ONE POSSIBLE INHIBITING FACTOR IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO RECURVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND ENCOUNTERS WESTERLY SHEAR...GORDON SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/1500Z 23.4N 58.3W 50 KT 12HR VT 13/0000Z 24.4N 58.6W 55 KT 24HR VT 13/1200Z 25.8N 58.8W 65 KT 36HR VT 14/0000Z 27.4N 58.8W 75 KT 48HR VT 14/1200Z 29.0N 58.5W 75 KT 72HR VT 15/1200Z 32.0N 57.5W 75 KT 96HR VT 16/1200Z 35.0N 54.5W 70 KT 120HR VT 17/1200Z 39.0N 49.0W 60 KT $$ FORECASTER COBB/PASCH ** WTPH RPLL 121200Z *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 10 AT 1200 12 SEPTEMBER TYPHOON (SHANSHAN) (0613) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 20.1N 131.0E FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT 03MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENALS SEAS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 41MPS NEAR CENTER 25MPS WITHIN 150KMS RADIUS 13MPS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 131200Z 21.8N 128.6E AT 141200Z 23.0N 126.6E AND AT 151200Z 24.1N 124.4E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTPQ31 PGUM 121526 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TYPHOON SHANSHAN (14W) ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 200 AM GUAM LST WED SEP 13 2006 ...TYPHOON SHANSHAN DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 1 AM GUAM LST..1500Z..THE CENTER OF TYPHOON SHANSHAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 130.6 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 1040 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM AND 885 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP. TYPHOON SHANSHAN IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH. SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHANSHAN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE CLOSER TO OKINAWA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 105 MPH. TYPHOON SHANSHAN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPEATING THE 1 AM POSITION...20.1 DEGREES NORTH AND 130.6 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 105 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 AM GUAM LST. $$ MCELROY ** WTJP31 RJTD 121500 *** WARNING 121500. WARNING VALID 131500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 945 HPA AT 20.1N 130.6E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 131500UTC AT 20.5N 127.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 121500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 121500UTC 20.1N 130.6E GOOD MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 140NM FORECAST 24HF 131500UTC 20.5N 127.9E 80NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 45HF 141200UTC 21.3N 126.7E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 69HF 151200UTC 22.8N 125.9E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 925HPA MXWD 095KT = ** WTPH20 RPMM 121200 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 10 AT 1200 12 SEPTEMBER TYPHOON [SHANSHAN] (0613) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ZERO POINT ZERO NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX THREE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ONE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER5 RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 131200 TWO ONE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT SIX EAST 141200 TWO THREE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT SIX EAST 151200 TWO FOUR POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT FOUR EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH20 RPMM 121200 CCA *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 10 AT 1200 12 SEPTEMBER TYPHOON [SHANSHAN] (0613) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ZERO POINT ZERO NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX THREE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ONE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER5 RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 131200 TWO ONE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT SIX EAST 141200 TWO THREE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT SIX EAST 151200 TWO FOUR POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT FOUR EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA= ** WTSS20 VHHH 121645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 121500 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (20.6 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (114.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131500 UTC TWO ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (21.5 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (112.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141500 UTC TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (21.6 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (110.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151500 UTC TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (21.6 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (108.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 121645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 121500 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (20.6 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (114.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131500 UTC TWO ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (21.5 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (112.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141500 UTC TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (21.6 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (110.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151500 UTC TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (21.6 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (108.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. ** WTNT80 EGRR 121727 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 12.09.2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ANALYSED POSITION : 12.4N 22.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 12.09.2006 12.4N 22.2W MODERATE 00UTC 13.09.2006 12.1N 25.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.09.2006 12.1N 29.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.09.2006 12.9N 32.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.09.2006 13.6N 36.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.09.2006 14.4N 39.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.09.2006 15.6N 42.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.09.2006 17.0N 44.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.09.2006 18.5N 46.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2006 19.7N 47.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2006 21.1N 49.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2006 22.7N 49.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.09.2006 24.1N 51.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY HURRICANE FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 37.6N 62.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 12.09.2006 37.6N 62.7W MODERATE 00UTC 13.09.2006 41.4N 59.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.09.2006 45.2N 56.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 14.09.2006 46.4N 51.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.09.2006 48.3N 45.2W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 15.09.2006 47.7N 38.4W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 15.09.2006 EXTRA-TROPICAL TROPICAL STORM GORDON ANALYSED POSITION : 23.1N 58.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 12.09.2006 23.1N 58.6W WEAK 00UTC 13.09.2006 24.6N 58.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.09.2006 26.4N 58.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2006 28.3N 58.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.09.2006 30.3N 58.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.09.2006 32.0N 57.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.09.2006 33.6N 56.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.09.2006 35.1N 55.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.09.2006 36.4N 52.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2006 37.9N 49.2W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.09.2006 39.5N 45.3W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 18.09.2006 41.0N 40.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.09.2006 41.9N 34.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 16.3N 102.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.09.2006 16.3N 102.4W WEAK 00UTC 15.09.2006 17.3N 103.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2006 17.8N 105.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.09.2006 18.6N 106.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2006 19.4N 107.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2006 20.0N 108.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.09.2006 20.4N 108.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 121727