** WTCN31 CWHX 120614 *** SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3:14 AM ADT TUESDAY 12 SEPTEMBER 2006. --------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR: =NEW= CHANNEL-PORT AUX BASQUES - BURGEO =NEW= RAMEA - CONNAIGRE =NEW= BURIN PENINSULA =NEW= AVALON PENINSULA SOUTH =NEW= AVALON PENINSULA NORTH =NEW= ST. JOHN'S AND VICINITY =NEW= CLARENVILLE AND VICINITY =NEW= BONAVISTA PENINSULA. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 KNOTS OR 70 KM/H ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY OVER THE ABOVE REGIONS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GUSTS TO NEAR 100 KM/H. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== HURRICANE FLORENCE WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN INTENSE POST-TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND TODAY. SINCE THE STORM WILL STILL POSSESS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WHEN IT MOVES NEAR THE AVALON PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY..A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN PENINSULAS OF NEWFOUNDLAND AND THE REMAINING SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND. SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE..70 KM/H..ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THIS AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 100 KM/H. ADDITIONALLY..75 TO 125 MILLIMETRES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. CONSULT YOUR LOCAL PUBLIC FORECAST FOR DETAILS. END/FOGARTY ** WTCN31 CWHX 120614 *** SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3:14 AM ADT TUESDAY 12 SEPTEMBER 2006. --------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR: =NEW= CHANNEL-PORT AUX BASQUES - BURGEO =NEW= RAMEA - CONNAIGRE =NEW= BURIN PENINSULA =NEW= AVALON PENINSULA SOUTH =NEW= AVALON PENINSULA NORTH =NEW= ST. JOHN'S AND VICINITY =NEW= CLARENVILLE AND VICINITY =NEW= BONAVISTA PENINSULA. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 KNOTS OR 70 KM/H ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY OVER THE ABOVE REGIONS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GUSTS TO NEAR 100 KM/H. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== HURRICANE FLORENCE WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN INTENSE POST-TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND TODAY. SINCE THE STORM WILL STILL POSSESS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WHEN IT MOVES NEAR THE AVALON PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY..A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN PENINSULAS OF NEWFOUNDLAND AND THE REMAINING SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND. SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE..70 KM/H..ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THIS AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 100 KM/H. ADDITIONALLY..75 TO 125 MILLIMETRES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. CONSULT YOUR LOCAL PUBLIC FORECAST FOR DETAILS. END/FOGARTY ** WTIN20 DEMS 120628 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 12-09-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL ,SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA AND PARTS OF ANDAMAN SEA(.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 27 DEG. NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????????? ** WTSS20 VHHH 120445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HECTOPASCALS. AT 120300 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (18.0 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (115.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130300 UTC ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (19.3 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (113.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140300 UTC ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (111.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150300 UTC ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (110.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 120445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HECTOPASCALS. AT 120300 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (18.0 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (115.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130300 UTC ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (19.3 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (113.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140300 UTC ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (111.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150300 UTC ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (110.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 120600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 120600 UTC 00HR 19.7N 131.6E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 20.7N 129.3E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 21.6N 127.3E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 22.8N 126.0E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 120600 *** WARNING 120600. WARNING VALID 130600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 945 HPA AT 19.7N 131.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 20.3N 129.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 20.8N 127.2E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 22.1N 125.7E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 120600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 120600UTC 19.7N 131.6E GOOD MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 130600UTC 20.3N 129.0E 80NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 48HF 140600UTC 20.8N 127.2E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 72HF 150600UTC 22.1N 125.7E 220NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 925HPA MXWD 095KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 120600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 5 NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN ANALYSIS POSITION 120600UTC 19.7N 131.6E MOVEMENT WNW 3KT PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 130600UTC 21.1N 129.5E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT 48HR POSITION 140600UTC 21.9N 127.6E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 930HPA 99KT 72HR POSITION 150600UTC 22.8N 126.3E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 925HPA 103KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 120600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 6 FOR TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 120600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 120745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 120600 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (18.4 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (115.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130600 UTC ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (113.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140600 UTC ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (19.7 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (110.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150600 UTC ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (19.3 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (109.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 120745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 120600 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (18.4 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (115.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130600 UTC ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (113.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140600 UTC ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (19.7 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (110.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150600 UTC ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (19.3 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (109.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. ** WTPN31 PGTW 120900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 120600Z --- NEAR 19.7N 131.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 131.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 20.1N 130.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 20.5N 129.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 20.8N 128.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 21.2N 127.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 22.8N 126.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 24.8N 127.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 27.1N 129.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 120900Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 131.2E. TYPHOON 14W (SHANSHAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.// ** WTNT32 KNHC 120840 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006 ...GORDON CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS... AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.3 WEST OR ABOUT 445 MILES...715 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GORDON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...22.6 N...58.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTNT22 KNHC 120840 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 0900 UTC TUE SEP 12 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 58.3W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 25SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 58.3W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 58.1W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.6N 59.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 25.1N 59.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 26.7N 59.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 28.1N 59.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 30.5N 58.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 33.0N 57.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 37.0N 52.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 58.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTNT42 KNHC 120845 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006 THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN INFRARED IMAGERY...AND THERE HAVEN'T BEEN ANY GOOD MICROWAVE PASSES RECENTLY. CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS MOTION WOULD PLACE THE CENTER NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A SMALL BALL OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE ASSUMED INITIAL MOTION IS 320/7...ALTHOUGH IS POSSIBLE THE CENTER IS A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE ADVISORY POSITION. GORDON IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID- LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A PRONOUNCED BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH FLORENCE TO ITS NORTHWEST. ANOTHER IMPORTANT FEATURE IS A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...LOCATED ABOUT 1000 NMI TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF GORDON...THAT IS MOVING WESTWARD. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT EVEN THOUGH FLORENCE WILL BE MOVING OUT...THE WESTWARD-MOVING UPPER LOW WILL BREAK DOWN THE REMAINING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF GORDON AND ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO SLOWLY RECURVE. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO... ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS THE RIGHT OUTLIER INITIALLY AND CONSEQUENTLY HAS A MUCH SLOWER INTERACTION WITH THE WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK EXCEPT A LITTLE SLOWER TO THE NORTHEAST ON DAYS 4 AND 5 OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE GFS. OVERALL THE TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45...55...AND 55 KT FROM TAFB... SAB...AND AFWA...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 50 KT. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER GORDON IS DIVERGENT... AND THIS FAVORABLE PATTERN IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY MODELS BOTH BRING GORDON UP TO ABOUT 80 KT IN 48 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES AS WELL. ONE POSSIBLE INHIBITING FACTOR WOULD BE SOME DRY MID-LEVEL AIR THAT COULD BE DRIVEN INTO THE CYCLONE FROM THE NORTHEAST BY THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO RECURVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND ENCOUNTERS WESTERLY SHEAR...THE INTENSIFICATION OF GORDON SHOULD BE DONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0900Z 22.6N 58.3W 50 KT 12HR VT 12/1800Z 23.6N 59.0W 55 KT 24HR VT 13/0600Z 25.1N 59.5W 65 KT 36HR VT 13/1800Z 26.7N 59.6W 75 KT 48HR VT 14/0600Z 28.1N 59.5W 80 KT 72HR VT 15/0600Z 30.5N 58.5W 80 KT 96HR VT 16/0600Z 33.0N 57.0W 75 KT 120HR VT 17/0600Z 37.0N 52.0W 65 KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTNT31 KNHC 120847 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 500 AM AST TUE SEP 12 2006 ...FLORENCE BEGINNING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM BERMUDA... ...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE BAHAMAS... UNITED STATES... AND CANADA... AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.4 WEST OR ABOUT 365 MILES... 585 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 810 MILES...1305 KM... SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FLORENCE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS FLORENCE TRANSITIONS INTO A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 415 MILES...665 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS... INCLUDING STRONG RIP CURRENTS... ARE AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS... PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR DETAILS ON COASTAL CONDITIONS. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...37.2 N...62.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN ** WTNT21 KNHC 120848 *** TCMAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 0900 UTC TUE SEP 12 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.2N 62.4W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT.......120NE 120SE 150SW 120NW. 34 KT.......240NE 240SE 240SW 360NW. 12 FT SEAS..475NE 350SE 450SW 450NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.2N 62.4W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 63.0W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 39.4N 60.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 150SW 120NW. 34 KT...240NE 240SE 240SW 360NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 42.7N 57.3W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...100NE 180SE 120SW 120NW. 34 KT...240NE 300SE 200SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 45.7N 53.3W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 200SE 200SW 90NW. 34 KT...240NE 300SE 300SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 47.6N 48.2W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 150SE 150SW 0NW. 34 KT...200NE 300SE 300SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 49.5N 33.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 360SE 360SW 240NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 53.0N 17.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.2N 62.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN ** WTNT41 KNHC 120848 *** TCDAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006 FLORENCE IS MOVING JUST A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK WITH AN ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION OF 035/17. TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF FLORENCE INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE IS IN THE EARLY TO MID STAGES OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE CLOUD SHIELD HAS BECOME ASYMMETRICALLY DISPLACED NORTHWARD OF THE CENTER...DRY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONE HAS ERODED MOST OF THE INNER CORE DEEP CONVECTION...AND FRONTAL-LIKE FEATURES ARE STARTING TO FORM. ADDITIONALLY...AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS AND NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE WIND FIELD IS EXPANDING. THE ONLY THING KEEPING THIS SYSTEM TROPICAL IS A SMALL AND RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NORTH OF THE CENTER. GIVEN THE DEGRADATION OF THE INNER CORE CONVECTION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 65 KT. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL NOT BE COMPLETE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER...IF WHAT LITTLE REMAINS OF THE CORE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE...TRANSITION COULD OCCUR MUCH EARLIER. GIVEN THE LOSS OF DEEP CONVECTION...BAROTROPIC FORCING APPEARS TO BE WANING. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT FLORENCE IS STARTING TO INTERACT WITH AN UPSTREAM MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS INTERACTION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BAROCLINIC FORCING AND AN INCREASE IN WINDS ON THE LARGER SCALE EVEN AS THE INNER CORE CONVECTION AND WINDS DECAY. ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY DURING THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND BE ABSORBED BY A SYSTEM TO THE NORTH BY DAY 5. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN FLORENCE AND A HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG AND OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE VERY ROUGH AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIALLY DEADLY RIP CURRENTS ALONG NEARLY THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0900Z 37.2N 62.4W 65 KT 12HR VT 12/1800Z 39.4N 60.5W 60 KT 24HR VT 13/0600Z 42.7N 57.3W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 13/1800Z 45.7N 53.3W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 14/0600Z 47.6N 48.2W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 15/0600Z 49.5N 33.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 16/0600Z 53.0N 17.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 17/0600Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN ** WTCA42 TJSJ 120909 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL GORDON ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 6 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL072006 500 AM EDT MARTES 12 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...GORDON CONTINUA AL NOROESTE SOBRE AGUAS ABIERTAS... A LAS 500 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL GORDON ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 58.3 OESTE O COMO A 445 MILLAS...715 KM...AL NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO. LA TORMENTA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO AL NOR-NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA QUE GORDON SE CONVIERTA EN UN HURACAN EN UN DIA O DOS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1000 MILIBARAS...29.53 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 AM EDT...22.6 NORTE...58.3 OESTE. SE MUEVE...AL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1000 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 AM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN ** WTPQ20 RJTD 120900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 120900UTC 19.9N 131.3E GOOD MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 130900UTC 20.4N 128.5E 80NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 45HF 140600UTC 20.8N 127.2E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 69HF 150600UTC 22.1N 125.7E 220NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 925HPA MXWD 095KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 120900 *** WARNING 120900. WARNING VALID 130900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 945 HPA AT 19.9N 131.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130900UTC AT 20.4N 128.5E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPH20 RPMM 120600 *** TTT STORM WARNING 09 AT 0600 12 SEPTEMBER TYPHOON {SHANSHAN} (0613) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE NINE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT SIX EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE NINE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 130600 TWO ZERO POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT SIX EAST 140600 TWO ZERO POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT SEVEN EAST 150600 TWO ONE POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT ZERO EAST SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA = ** WTPQ31 PGUM 121005 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TYPHOON SHANSHAN (14W) ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 PM GUAM LST TUE SEP 12 2006 ...TYPHOON SHANSHAN CONTINUES INTENSIFYING... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 7 PM GUAM LST..0900Z..THE CENTER OF TYPHOON SHANSHAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 131.2 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 995 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM AND 845 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP. TYPHOON SHANSHAN IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 105 MPH. TYPHOON SHANSHAN WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...19.8 DEGREES NORTH AND 131.2 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 105 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 AM GUAM LST WEDNESDAY. $$ AHN ** WTSS20 VHHH 121045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 120900 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (18.9 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (114.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130900 UTC ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (19.6 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (112.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140900 UTC ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (19.7 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (110.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150900 UTC ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (19.3 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (109.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 121045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 120900 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (18.9 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (114.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130900 UTC ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (19.6 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (112.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140900 UTC ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (19.7 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (110.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150900 UTC ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (19.3 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (109.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. ** WTCN31 CWHX 121159 *** SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 8:59 AM ADT TUESDAY 12 SEPTEMBER 2006. --------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR: CHANNEL-PORT AUX BASQUES - BURGEO RAMEA - CONNAIGRE BURIN PENINSULA AVALON PENINSULA SOUTH AVALON PENINSULA NORTH ST. JOHN'S AND VICINITY CLARENVILLE AND VICINITY BONAVISTA PENINSULA. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 KNOTS OR 70 KM/H ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY OVER THE ABOVE REGIONS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GUST TO NEAR 120 KM/H. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== HURRICANE FLORENCE WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN INTENSE POST-TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND TODAY. SINCE THE STORM WILL STILL POSSESS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WHEN IT MOVES NEAR THE AVALON PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY..A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN PENINSULAS OF NEWFOUNDLAND AND THE REMAINING SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND. SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE..70 KM/H..ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THIS AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 120 KM/H. ADDITIONALLY..75 TO 125 MILLIMETRES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. CONSULT YOUR LOCAL PUBLIC FORECAST FOR DETAILS. NOTE..HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE WOCN31 CWHX BULLETIN. END/FOGARTY..BOWYER