** WTSR20 WSSS 111800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 120000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 120000 UTC 00HR 19.4N 132.1E 965HPA 38M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 21.0N 130.1E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 21.6N 128.1E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 22.6N 126.1E 950HPA 45M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 120000 *** WARNING 120000. WARNING VALID 130000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 955 HPA AT 19.4N 132.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 20.5N 129.5E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 21.2N 127.4E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 22.0N 125.8E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 120000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 120000UTC 19.4N 132.1E GOOD MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 130000UTC 20.5N 129.5E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 48HF 140000UTC 21.2N 127.4E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 930HPA MXWD 090KT 72HF 150000UTC 22.0N 125.8E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 925HPA MXWD 095KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 120000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 5 FOR TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 120000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 120300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 120000Z --- NEAR 19.4N 132.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.4N 132.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 19.9N 131.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 20.4N 129.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 20.7N 129.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 21.0N 128.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 22.1N 127.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 24.1N 127.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 26.5N 128.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 120300Z POSITION NEAR 19.5N 131.8E. TYPHOON 14W (SHANSHAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.// ** WTNT41 KNHC 120229 *** TCDAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 1100 PM EDT MON SEP 11 2006 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF FLORENCE HAS BEEN DETERIORATING WITH ALMOST ALL OF THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. THE CLOUD PATTERN ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE MIGHT BE BEGINNING THE FIRST STAGES OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE DROPPING AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE LOWERED TO 75 KT. FURTHER WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS THE HURRICANE SLOWLY TAKES ON NON-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...ALL GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT FLORENCE WILL BE A LARGE POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE... AND SO DOES THE INTENSITY FORECAST. ONE QUESTION MARK IS HOW FAST FLORENCE COMPLETES ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. FSU PHASE-SPACE DIAGRAMS DERIVED FROM GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS WOULD INDICATE FULL TRANSITION BY 3 DAYS. WE ARE INDICATING FLORENCE TO BE EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS... JUST A LITTLE FASTER THAN THESE MODELS BUT SEEMINGLY REASONABLE SINCE THE HURRICANE IS ALREADY LOOKING A LITTLE LESS THAN TROPICAL. FLORENCE IS SPEEDING UP TONIGHT... NOW MOVING 025/16. A MIDDLE-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH LOCATED OVER CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES SHOULD ACCELERATE THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FOR 24 TO 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER... A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST SHOULD OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM NEARS NEWFOUNDLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE EXTRATROPICAL WIND RADII ARE A BLEND OF THE UKMET AND GFS FORECASTS. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN FLORENCE AND A STRONG HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG AND OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE VERY ROUGH AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIALLY DEADLY RIP CURRENTS ALONG NEARLY THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE RADII OF 12-FT SEAS SHOWN IN THE FORECAST/ ADVISORY DOES NOT FULLY ACCOUNT FOR THE HUGE AREA OF HIGH WAVES INDIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HURRICANE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0300Z 35.8N 63.9W 75 KT 12HR VT 12/1200Z 37.8N 62.6W 70 KT 24HR VT 13/0000Z 40.6N 59.9W 65 KT 36HR VT 13/1200Z 44.0N 56.4W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 14/0000Z 46.5N 51.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 15/0000Z 49.5N 37.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 16/0000Z 52.0N 20.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 17/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA ** WTNT31 KNHC 120232 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 1100 PM AST MON SEP 11 2006 ...FLORENCE OVER OPEN WATERS... ...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE BAHAMAS... UNITED STATES... AND CANADA... AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.9 WEST OR ABOUT 245 MILES...400 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 935 MILES... 1510 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR ...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FLORENCE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FLORENCE IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB...28.76 INCHES. LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS... INCLUDING STRONG RIP CURRENTS... ARE AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS... PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR DETAILS ON COASTAL CONDITIONS. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...35.8 N...63.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA ** WTNT22 KNHC 120232 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 0300 UTC TUE SEP 12 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 57.9W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 57.9W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 57.6W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 23.0N 58.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 40SE 25SW 25NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 24.5N 59.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 45NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 26.0N 60.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 45NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.6N 60.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 30.0N 59.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 33.0N 57.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 37.0N 52.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 57.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT42 KNHC 120232 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 PM EDT MON SEP 11 2006 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT GORDON IS ON A STRENGTHENING TREND. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CYCLONICALLY-CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE OUTFLOW HAS ALSO BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED BUT IT IS LIMITED IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KNOTS...A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED A FEW VECTORS OF 50 KNOTS EAST OF THE CENTER. THIS MEASUREMENT WILL BE USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IN THIS ADVISORY. THE VALIDITY OF THESE VECTORS WILL LIKELY BE QUESTIONED. GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND AND THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS...CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AND GORDON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN DAY OR SO. GORDON MOST LIKELY WILL SPEND ITS LIFETIME OVER WATER. IT IS ALREADY MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS AND SOON THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD TOWARD THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE LEFT BY HURRICANE FLORENCE. IN FACT...MOST OF THE RELIABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS ALREADY TO THE RIGHT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IN ABOUT THREE DAYS GORDON SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0300Z 22.1N 57.9W 50 KT 12HR VT 12/1200Z 23.0N 58.7W 55 KT 24HR VT 13/0000Z 24.5N 59.5W 65 KT 36HR VT 13/1200Z 26.0N 60.0W 75 KT 48HR VT 14/0000Z 27.6N 60.0W 75 KT 72HR VT 15/0000Z 30.0N 59.5W 75 KT 96HR VT 16/0000Z 33.0N 57.5W 70 KT 120HR VT 17/0000Z 37.0N 52.0W 65 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA/AGUIRRE ** WTNT21 KNHC 120232 *** TCMAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 0300 UTC TUE SEP 12 2006 AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.8N 63.9W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 45SW 90NW. 34 KT.......250NE 200SE 125SW 250NW. 12 FT SEAS..475NE 350SE 450SW 450NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.8N 63.9W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 64.3W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 37.8N 62.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 45SW 90NW. 34 KT...300NE 275SE 175SW 275NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 40.6N 59.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 100NW. 34 KT...300NE 275SE 175SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 44.0N 56.4W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...125NE 125SE 75SW 75NW. 34 KT...250NE 300SE 225SW 225NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 46.5N 51.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 150SE 125SW 0NW. 34 KT...250NE 300SE 250SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 49.5N 37.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 360SE 320SW 250NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 52.0N 20.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.8N 63.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA ** WTNT32 KNHC 120233 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 PM EDT MON SEP 11 2006 ...GORDON A LITTLE STRONGER...POSES NO THREAT TO LAND... AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.9 WEST OR ABOUT 430 MILES...690 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND GORDON COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR TWO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...22.1 N...57.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA/AGUIRRE ** WTCA42 TJSJ 120238 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL GORDON ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 5 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 PM EDT LUNES 11 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...GORDON UN POCO MAS FUERTE...NO REPRESENTA AMENAZA A TIERRA... A LAS 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL GORDON ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 57.9 OESTE O COMO A 430 MILLAS...690 KM...AL NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO. LA TORMENTA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS Y GORDON PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN UN HURACAN EN UN DIA O DOS. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1000 MILIBARAS...29.53 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 PM EDT...22.1 NORTE...57.9 OESTE. SE MUEVE...AL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1000 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 AM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR AVILA/AGUIRRE ** WTPH20 RPMM 120000 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 08 AT 0000 12 SEPTEMBER TYPHOON (SHANSHAN) (0613) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE NINE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE THREE TWO POINT ONE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SEVEN SIX HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 130000 TWO ZERO POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT FOUR EAST 140000 TWO ZERO POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT EIGHT EAST 150000 TWO ONE POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT TWO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA = ** WTPQ20 RJTD 120300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 120300UTC 19.6N 131.8E GOOD MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 130300UTC 20.5N 129.0E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 45HF 140000UTC 21.2N 127.4E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 930HPA MXWD 090KT 69HF 150000UTC 22.0N 125.8E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 925HPA MXWD 095KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 120300 *** WARNING 120300. WARNING VALID 130300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 955 HPA AT 19.6N 131.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130300UTC AT 20.5N 129.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ31 PGUM 120404 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TYPHOON SHANSHAN (14W) ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 200 PM GUAM LST TUE SEP 12 2006 ...TYPHOON SHANSHAN INTENSIFYING AS IT TURNS WEST... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 1 PM GUAM LST..0300Z..THE CENTER OF TYPHOON SHANSHAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 131.8 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 955 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM AND 810 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP. TYPHOON SHANSHAN IS MOVING WEST AT 7 MPH. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... SHANSHAN IS EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 105 MPH. TYPHOON SHANSHAN IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...19.5 DEGREES NORTH AND 131.8 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST AT 7 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 105 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 PM GUAM LST. $$ MIDDLEBROOKE ** WTNT80 EGRR 120521 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 12.09.2006 HURRICANE FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 35.1N 64.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 12.09.2006 35.1N 64.5W INTENSE 12UTC 12.09.2006 38.7N 62.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 13.09.2006 41.4N 59.5W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 13.09.2006 45.2N 56.0W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.09.2006 46.3N 51.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.09.2006 48.1N 45.3W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 15.09.2006 47.1N 39.8W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 15.09.2006 47.4N 31.8W EXTRA-TROPICAL TROPICAL STORM GORDON ANALYSED POSITION : 22.7N 57.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 12.09.2006 22.7N 57.7W WEAK 12UTC 12.09.2006 23.4N 58.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.09.2006 24.3N 59.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.09.2006 25.6N 60.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2006 27.1N 60.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 14.09.2006 28.6N 60.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2006 29.8N 60.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.09.2006 31.6N 60.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.09.2006 32.7N 59.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2006 34.2N 57.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2006 36.7N 54.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.09.2006 39.6N 51.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2006 42.4N 46.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS. FORECAST POSITION AT T+24 : 12.7N 118.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 13.09.2006 12.7N 118.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.09.2006 12.2N 120.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2006 14.1N 121.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.09.2006 13.3N 121.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2006 14.1N 119.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2006 14.1N 119.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2006 14.8N 120.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2006 15.2N 120.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2006 14.8N 122.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2006 15.4N 123.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2006 15.6N 123.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 11.8N 16.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 12.09.2006 11.8N 16.3W WEAK 12UTC 12.09.2006 12.1N 19.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 13.09.2006 12.5N 23.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.09.2006 12.9N 26.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 14.09.2006 13.6N 29.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.09.2006 14.0N 32.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.09.2006 14.9N 35.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.09.2006 16.6N 37.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2006 18.6N 38.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 16.09.2006 20.4N 39.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2006 22.2N 40.3W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.09.2006 23.8N 41.2W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 18.09.2006 25.8N 42.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 120521