** WTPQ20 RJTD 111800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) UPGRADED FROM STS ANALYSIS PSTN 111800UTC 19.3N 132.6E GOOD MOVE NW 07KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 121800UTC 20.5N 130.8E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 131800UTC 21.2N 128.7E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 72HF 141800UTC 22.3N 126.8E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 930HPA MXWD 090KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 111800 *** WARNING 111800. WARNING VALID 121800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 965 HPA AT 19.3N 132.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 20.5N 130.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 21.2N 128.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 22.3N 126.8E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 111800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 111800 UTC 00HR 19.2N 132.7E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 10KM/H P+24HR 20.7N 130.8E 965HPA 38M/S P+48HR 21.5N 128.7E 955HPA 40M/S P+72HR 22.8N 126.7E 950HPA 45M/S= ** WTKO20 RKSL 111800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 4 NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN ANALYSIS POSITION 111800UTC 19.3N 132.6E MOVEMENT NW 7KT PRES/VMAX 965HPA 70KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 121800UTC 20.5N 130.7E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 955HPA 80KT 48HR POSITION 131800UTC 21.4N 128.5E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT 72HR POSITION 141800UTC 22.2N 126.9E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTNT31 KNHC 112030 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 500 PM AST MON SEP 11 2006 ...FLORENCE CONTINUES MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THERE... AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.8 WEST OR ABOUT 145 MILES... 235 KM...NORTH OF BERMUDA. FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR ...AND SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FLORENCE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FLORENCE REMAINS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. WINDS AT BERMUDA WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB...28.70 INCHES. STORM SURGES AND WAVES ALONG THE COAST OF BERMUDA WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT. LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS... INCLUDING STRONG RIP CURRENTS... ARE AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR DETAILS ON COASTAL CONDITIONS. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...34.4 N...64.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH ** WTPN31 PGTW 112100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111800Z --- NEAR 19.3N 132.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 132.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 20.0N 132.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 20.5N 131.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 20.9N 129.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 21.2N 128.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 21.9N 127.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 23.7N 126.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 26.2N 128.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 112100Z POSITION NEAR 19.5N 132.5E. TYPHOON 14W (SHANSHAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM SOUTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND 122100Z.// ** WTNT21 KNHC 112030 *** TCMAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 2100 UTC MON SEP 11 2006 AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 64.8W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......250NE 175SE 90SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS..475NE 275SE 350SW 450NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 64.8W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 65.2W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 36.2N 63.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...275NE 175SE 100SW 275NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 38.7N 61.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...275NE 175SE 100SW 275NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 42.0N 58.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...300NE 250SE 150SW 275NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 45.2N 54.8W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...300NE 350SE 200SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 49.0N 42.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...120NE 150SE 150SW 120NW. 34 KT...300NE 480SE 420SW 300NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 51.0N 25.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.4N 64.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH ** WTNT41 KNHC 112031 *** TCDAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 500 PM EDT MON SEP 11 2006 CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM BERMUDA INDICATES AN EYE THAT IS OPEN TO THE EAST. GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS REPORTED ACROSS BERMUDA...WE ARE RELUCTANT TO DECREASE THE WINDS AT THIS TIME. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPART A GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS FLORENCE BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS... IT WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH A SHORT WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES WHICH WILL PROBABLY KEEP THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE LARGE AND VERY POWERFUL FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/14. FLORENCE IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE NOW LEANING A LITTLE MORE TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND IN ABOUT 48 HOURS BEFORE DEPICTING A HARD RIGHT TURN INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THEREFORE... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT IN ABOUT 2 DAYS...BUT IS OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN FLORENCE AND A STRONG HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA IS PRODUCING BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE VERY ROUGH AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG NEARLY THE ENTIRE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE RADII OF 12-FT SEAS SHOWN IN THE FORECAST/ADVISORY DOES NOT FULLY ACCOUNT FOR THE HUGE AREA OF HIGH WAVES INDIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HURRICANE. EVEN THOUGH FLORENCE PASSED ABOUT 48 N MI WEST AND NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA...THEY WERE VERY CLOSE TO THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE ISLAND EXPERIENCE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. THIS IS A GOOD REMINDER THAT A HURRICANE IS NOT JUST A POINT ON THE MAP...AND THAT DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPERIENCED WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/2100Z 34.4N 64.8W 80 KT 12HR VT 12/0600Z 36.2N 63.8W 70 KT 24HR VT 12/1800Z 38.7N 61.9W 65 KT 36HR VT 13/0600Z 42.0N 58.5W 65 KT 48HR VT 13/1800Z 45.2N 54.8W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 14/1800Z 49.0N 42.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 15/1800Z 51.0N 25.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 16/1800Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH ** WTNT22 KNHC 112040 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 2100 UTC MON SEP 11 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 57.3W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 57.3W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 57.1W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 22.4N 58.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 25NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.7N 59.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 25.0N 60.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 26.5N 60.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 29.0N 60.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 31.5N 60.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 34.0N 59.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 57.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER COBB/PASCH ** WTNT42 KNHC 112048 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 500 PM EDT MON SEP 11 2006 AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 47 KT WHICH REDUCES TO 38 KT AT THE SURFACE. THUS THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM GORDON ON THIS ADVISORY WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT. THE UPGRADE IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM SAB...TAFB AND AFWA. SINCE THE TIME OF THE FIRST AIRCRAFT FIX THE OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED WITH INCREASING BANDING FEATURES AND EXPANDING OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/8...SLIGHTLY FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS DIVIDED INTO 2 CAMPS...THE BAMS ON THE LEFT AND THE VARIOUS DYNAMICAL MODELS AND CONSENSUS TO THE RIGHT. THE FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED ON THE INITIAL MOTION. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT IN TURNING THE SYSTEM MORE NORTHWARD AND HEADING FOR A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER AND TRAPS THE SYSTEM BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LATE IN THE FORECAST. THIS SOLUTION SEEMS UNLIKELY AND IS IN PART DUE TO POOR INITIALIZATION OF THE SYSTEM BY THAT MODEL WHICH ALSO DISSIPATES GORDON WITHIN 72 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY GIVEN THE SYSTEM'S INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT AND DECREASING ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR. GIVEN THE MORE CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS AND INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM...MORE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. GORDON COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS AND THE GFDL HURRICANE MODEL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/2100Z 21.6N 57.3W 40 KT 12HR VT 12/0600Z 22.4N 58.3W 45 KT 24HR VT 12/1800Z 23.7N 59.3W 55 KT 36HR VT 13/0600Z 25.0N 60.1W 60 KT 48HR VT 13/1800Z 26.5N 60.5W 65 KT 72HR VT 14/1800Z 29.0N 60.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 15/1800Z 31.5N 60.0W 70 KT 120HR VT 16/1800Z 34.0N 59.5W 70 KT $$ FORECASTER COBB/PASCH ** WTNT32 KNHC 112054 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 500 PM EDT MON SEP 11 2006 ...SEVENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...GORDON...FORMS... REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN HAS STRENGTHENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM. AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.3 WEST OR ABOUT 425 MILES...690 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...21.6 N...57.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER COBB/PASCH ** WTPQ31 PGUM 112101 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TYPHOON SHANSHAN (14W) ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 AM GUAM LST TUE SEP 12 2006 ...TYPHOON SHANSHAN CONTINUES DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWEST... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON SHANSHAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 132.7 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 910 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM 785 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP AND 580 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA. TYPHOON SHANSHAN IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 80 MPH. TYPHOON SHANSHAN IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...19.3 DEGREES NORTH AND 132.7 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 PM GUAM LST. $$ MARN ** WTCA42 TJSJ 112122 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL GORDON ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 4 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL072006 500 PM EDT LUNES 11 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...LA SEPTIMA TORMENTA TROPICAL DE LA TEMPORADA...GORDON...SE FORMA... REPORTES RECIBIDOS DESDE UN AVION DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICAN QUE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL SIETE SE HA FORTALECIDO HASTA CONVERTIRSE EN UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL. A LAS 500 PM EDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL GORDON ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 57.3 OESTE O COMO A 425 MILLAS...690 KM...AL NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO. LA TORMENTA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1003 MILIBARAS...29.62 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 PM EDT...21.6 NORTE...57.3 OESTE. SE MUEVE...AL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1003 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 PM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR COBB/PASCH ** WTPQ20 RJTD 112100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 112100UTC 19.4N 132.4E GOOD MOVE NW 06KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 122100UTC 20.5N 130.2E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 131800UTC 21.2N 128.7E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 69HF 141800UTC 22.3N 126.8E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 930HPA MXWD 090KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 112100 *** WARNING 112100. WARNING VALID 122100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 965 HPA AT 19.4N 132.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 122100UTC AT 20.5N 130.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPH20 RPMM 111800 *** TTT STORM WARNING 07 AT 1800 11 SEPTEMBER SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (SHANSHAN)(0613) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE NINE POINT THREE NORTH ONE THREE TWO POINT SEVEN EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE EIGHT ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE ONE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 121800 TWO ZERO POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO NINE EAST 131800 TWO ONE POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT EIGHT EAST 141800 TWO TWO POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT EIGHT EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTNT31 KNHC 112334 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE FLORENCE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 33A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 800 PM AST MON SEP 11 2006 ...FLORENCE MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. THIS WARNING COULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS EVENING. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.4 WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES... 315 KM...NORTH OF BERMUDA. FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FLORENCE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FURTHER WEAKENING IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT. FLORENCE IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. WINDS AT BERMUDA WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB...28.76 INCHES. STORM SURGES AND WAVES ALONG THE COAST OF BERMUDA WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT. LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS... INCLUDING STRONG RIP CURRENTS... ARE AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR DETAILS ON COASTAL CONDITIONS. REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...35.2 N...64.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA