** WTSR20 WSSS 110600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTJP21 RJTD 111200 *** WARNING 111200. WARNING VALID 121200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 980 HPA AT 18.8N 133.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 20.2N 131.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 21.1N 129.6E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 21.5N 127.5E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 111200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 111200UTC 18.8N 133.2E FAIR MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 130NM FORECAST 24HF 121200UTC 20.2N 131.7E 80NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 131200UTC 21.1N 129.6E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 72HF 141200UTC 21.5N 127.5E 220NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 111200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 111200 UTC 00HR 18.8N 133.2E 988HPA 25M/S 30KTS 260KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 20.6N 130.9E 970HPA 35M/S P+48HR 21.8N 128.7E 965HPA 38M/S P+72HR 22.5N 126.4E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTPN31 PGTW 111500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 14W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 007 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 14W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111200Z --- NEAR 19.0N 133.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.0N 133.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 19.9N 132.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 20.6N 131.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 21.0N 130.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 21.3N 128.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 22.3N 127.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 24.2N 127.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 27.0N 129.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT --- REMARKS: 111500Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 132.9E. TYPHOON 14W (SHANSHAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM SOUTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.// ** WTNT32 KNHC 111427 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 AM EDT MON SEP 11 2006 ...DEPRESSION NEAR STORM STRENGTH... AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.7 WEST OR ABOUT 435 MILES...695 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TODAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...21.1 N...56.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTNT22 KNHC 111427 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1500 UTC MON SEP 11 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 56.7W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 56.7W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 56.2W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.4N 57.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 22.3N 58.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 23.3N 59.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 24.3N 60.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 26.5N 62.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 29.0N 62.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 32.0N 61.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 56.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTNT42 KNHC 111428 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 AM EDT MON SEP 11 2006 VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS MOVED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THAN EARLIER ESTIMATED. THIS REQUIRES SOME ADJUSTMENT TO THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK...BUT OTHERWISE THE TRACK REASONING IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE. WE EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND HEAD FOR A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE GFDL AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACKS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER EAST THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE RIGHT AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER THE CONVECTION IS LOOKING A LITTLE THIN AT THE MOMENT AND A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO INDICATED THE HIGHEST UNCONTAMINATED WINDS WERE 25-30 KT. WE WILL WAIT UNTIL THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATES THE SYSTEM IN A FEW HOURS TO GET A MORE PRECISE ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC SINCE THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN AN ANTICYCLONIC LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE...AND IT WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SOME VERTICAL SHEAR FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE ON STRENGTHENING...SO THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE PREVIOUS ONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/1500Z 21.1N 56.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 12/0000Z 21.4N 57.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 12/1200Z 22.3N 58.6W 35 KT 36HR VT 13/0000Z 23.3N 59.6W 40 KT 48HR VT 13/1200Z 24.3N 60.6W 45 KT 72HR VT 14/1200Z 26.5N 62.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 15/1200Z 29.0N 62.4W 55 KT 120HR VT 16/1200Z 32.0N 61.5W 55 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTCA42 TJSJ 111433 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL SIETE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 3 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 AM EDT LUNES 11 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...DEPRESION TROPICAL CERCA DE CONVERTIRSE EN TORMENTA... A LAS 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL SIETE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 56.7 OESTE O COMO A 435 MILLAS...695 KM...AL NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE EL DIA DE HOY Y ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. LA DEPRESION PUDIERA CONVERTIRSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL MAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY. ESTA PROGRAMADO UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA PARA QUE INVESTIGUE EL SISTEMA HOY. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1009 MILIBARAS...29.80 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 AM EDT...21.1 NORTE...56.7 OESTE. SE MUEVE...AL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1009 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 PM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR PASCH ** WTNT21 KNHC 111437 *** TCMAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 1500 UTC MON SEP 11 2006 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 65.6W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......250NE 175SE 90SW 175NW. 12 FT SEAS..475NE 275SE 350SW 450NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 65.6W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 65.8W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 34.7N 64.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 95 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...250NE 175SE 90SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 37.1N 63.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...275NE 175SE 100SW 275NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 40.0N 60.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...300NE 250SE 150SW 275NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 43.4N 56.7W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...350NE 350SE 200SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 47.5N 46.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...120NE 150SE 150SW 150NW. 34 KT...360NE 480SE 420SW 300NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 50.5N 30.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.9N 65.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH ** WTNT31 KNHC 111442 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 1100 AM AST MON SEP 11 2006 ...FLORENCE STRONGER...POUNDING BERMUDA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.6 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES...100 KM...NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA. FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR ...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FLORENCE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. AN ELEVATED OBSERVING SITE IN BERMUDA RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 111 MPH...179 KM/HR. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB...28.70 INCHES. STORM SURGE VALUES OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST OF BERMUDA TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUBSIDING TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH FLORENCE. LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS... INCLUDING STRONG RIP CURRENTS... ARE AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR DETAILS ON COASTAL CONDITIONS. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...32.9 N...65.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH ** WTNT41 KNHC 111448 *** TCDAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 1100 AM EDT MON SEP 11 2006 THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATED THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD FALLEN ONLY A FEW MB...SUGGESTING THAT THERE HAD BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH. SINCE THAT TIME...HOWEVER...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE IMPRESSIVE AND SEVERAL REPORTS OF SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM BERMUDA...INCLUDING THE OFFICIAL OBSERVING SITE ON THE ISLAND. THE LATTER REPORT WAS RELAYED TO US BY THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS...AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF HIGHER VELOCITIES OCCURRING SOMEWHERE IN THE CIRCULATION...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 80 KT. THE GUST FACTOR IS ALSO SET A LITTLE HIGHER THAN NORMAL...AND THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON THE SAME OBSERVATIONS. BOTH THE INTENSITY AND TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FLORENCE'S INTENSITY IS NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE MUCH IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...THEREAFTER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPART SOME WEAKENING....HOWEVER INTERACTION WITH A SHORT WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES MAY PROVIDE NEW ENERGY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE WEAKENING PROCESS SLOW. WIND RADII ARE FORECAST TO SIGNIFICANTLY EXPAND AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN 48 TO 72 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 015/11. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE NOGAPS AND GFDL REMAIN ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE WHILE THE GFS AND UKMET ARE ON THE RIGHT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IT REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/1500Z 32.9N 65.6W 80 KT 12HR VT 12/0000Z 34.7N 64.9W 75 KT 24HR VT 12/1200Z 37.1N 63.4W 70 KT 36HR VT 13/0000Z 40.0N 60.8W 65 KT 48HR VT 13/1200Z 43.4N 56.7W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 14/1200Z 47.5N 46.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 15/1200Z 50.5N 30.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH ** WTCA41 TJSJ 111457 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN HURACAN FLORENCE ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 32 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL062006 1100 AM AST LUNES 11 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...FLORENCE MAS FUERTE...SOBRE BERMUDA... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA BERMUDA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO EN LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION DE LA TORMENTA ESPECIFICAMENTE PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE MANTENERSE ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN FLORENCE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 32.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 65.6 OESTE O COMO A 60 MILLAS...100 KM...AL NOROESTE DE BERMUDA. FLORENCE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE NORESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CON UN AUMENTO EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. SE ESPERA QUE EL CENTRO DE FLORENCE SE ALEJE DE BERMUDA MAS TARDE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS CONTINUAN EN CERCA DE 90 MPH...150 KM/HR CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. FLORENCE ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. NO SE ESPERA NINGUN CAMBIO SIGNIFICATIVO EN FUERZA DURANTE ESTA NOCHE. UNA ESTACION METEOROLOGICA ELEVADA EN BERMUDA REPORTO RECIENTEMENTE UNA RAFAGA DE 11 MPH...179 KM/HR. LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 70 MILLAS...110 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 290 MILLAS...465 KM. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 972 MILIBARAS...28.70 PULGADAS. ES PROBABLE QUE LA MAREJADA CICLONICA OCASIONE MAREJADAS DE 6 A 8 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LAS MAREAS ADEMAS DE OLAS GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DE BERMUDA. SE ESPERA QUE ESTAS CONDICIONES COMIENCEN A DISMINUIR ESTA NOCHE. SE ESPERAN CANTIDADES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS EN BERMUDA EN ASOCIACION A FLORENCE. GRANDES MAREJADAS EN EL OCEANO Y PELIGROSAS CONDICIONES DE RESACA...INCLUYENDO FUERTES CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS ESTAN AFECTANDO A LAS BAHAMAS Y PORCIONES DE LA COSTA ESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS Y LAS AGUAS MARITIMAS CANADIENSES. FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS COMUNICADOS DE LAS OFICINAS METEOROLOGICAS LOCALES PARA DETALLES DE LAS CONDICIONES COSTERAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 AM AST...32.9 NORTE...65.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE NORESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...90 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...972 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 200 PM AST SEGUIDA POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 PM AST. ESTA SERA LA ULTIMA TRADUCCION PROVISTA POR EL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN...PUERTO RICO. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BROWN/PASCH ** WTPQ31 PGUM 111518 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TYPHOON SHANSHAN (14W) ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 200 AM GUAM LST TUE SEP 12 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM SHANSHAN BECOMES A TYPHOON... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 1 AM GUAM LST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON SHANSHAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 132.9 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 880 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM 755 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP AND 590 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA. TYPHOON SHANSHAN IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 80 MPH. TYPHOON SHANSHAN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REPEATING THE 1 AM POSITION...19.2 DEGREES NORTH AND 132.9 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 AM GUAM LST. $$ MCELROY ** WTPH20 RPMM 111200 *** T T T GALE WARNING 06 AT 1200 11 SEPTEMBER SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (SHANSHAN)(0613) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE THREE THREE POINT TWO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE EIGHT SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO SIX METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 121200 TWO ZERO POINT ZERO NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT FOUR EAST 131200 TWO ONE POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT FOUR EAST 141200 TWO TWO POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT NINE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTJP31 RJTD 111500 *** WARNING 111500. WARNING VALID 121500. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 975 HPA AT 19.0N 133.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 121500UTC AT 20.2N 131.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 111500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 111500UTC 19.0N 133.0E FAIR MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 140NM FORECAST 24HF 121500UTC 20.2N 131.4E 80NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 131200UTC 21.1N 129.6E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 69HF 141200UTC 21.5N 127.5E 220NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT = ** WTNT80 EGRR 111724 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 11.09.2006 HURRICANE FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 32.5N 66.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 11.09.2006 32.5N 66.0W INTENSE 00UTC 12.09.2006 35.4N 64.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 12.09.2006 38.1N 63.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 13.09.2006 39.9N 59.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.09.2006 44.6N 57.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2006 EXTRA-TROPICAL TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ANALYSED POSITION : 21.1N 55.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 11.09.2006 21.1N 55.6W WEAK 00UTC 12.09.2006 21.6N 57.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.09.2006 23.0N 58.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.09.2006 24.1N 58.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.09.2006 25.6N 58.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.09.2006 27.2N 59.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.09.2006 29.1N 60.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.09.2006 30.9N 59.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2006 32.2N 59.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.09.2006 33.1N 58.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.09.2006 34.4N 57.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2006 36.2N 57.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.09.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 10.3N 119.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 12.09.2006 10.3N 119.7W WEAK 12UTC 12.09.2006 11.0N 119.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.09.2006 12.3N 119.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.09.2006 13.9N 120.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.09.2006 14.4N 121.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.09.2006 13.6N 121.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2006 15.5N 120.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.09.2006 14.5N 121.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2006 15.5N 121.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2006 15.9N 122.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2006 16.3N 124.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2006 16.6N 125.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 11.4N 17.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 12.09.2006 11.4N 17.0W WEAK 12UTC 12.09.2006 11.7N 18.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.09.2006 12.5N 21.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.09.2006 12.9N 25.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.09.2006 13.6N 28.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.09.2006 13.7N 31.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 15.09.2006 15.5N 33.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.09.2006 16.5N 36.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.09.2006 17.6N 38.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.09.2006 19.4N 40.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 17.09.2006 22.0N 42.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.09.2006 23.4N 43.6W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 111724 ** WTNT31 KNHC 111743 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE FLORENCE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 200 PM AST MON SEP 11 2006 ...FLORENCE BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.3 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...150 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA. FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR ...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF FLORENCE IS BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA...AND CONDITIONS THERE SHOULD START IMPROVING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FLORENCE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BERMUDA AIRPORT RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 78 MPH...126 KM/HR. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB...28.70 INCHES. STORM SURGE VALUES OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST OF BERMUDA TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUBSIDING TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH FLORENCE. LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS... INCLUDING STRONG RIP CURRENTS... ARE AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR DETAILS ON COASTAL CONDITIONS. REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...33.6 N...65.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH