** WTPQ20 BABJ 110600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 110600 UTC 00HR 18.5N 133.6E 988HPA 25M/S 30KTS 260KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR NW 15KM/H P+24HR 20.5N 131.3E 970HPA 35M/S P+48HR 22.0N 128.6E 965HPA 38M/S P+72HR 22.6N 126.2E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTCA41 TJSJ 110647 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN HURACAN FLORENCE ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 30A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL062006 200 AM AST LUNES 11 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...FLORENCE CONTINUA AL NORTE... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA BERMUDA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO EN LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. DEBEN COMPLETARSE LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD. PARA INFORMACION DE LA TORMENTA ESPECIFICAMENTE PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE MANTENERSE ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 2 AM AST...0600Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN FLORENCE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 31.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 66.1 OESTE O COMO A 110 MILLAS...175 KM...AL SUROESTE DE BERMUDA. FLORENCE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO DURANTE LA NOCHE CON UN GIRO HACIA EL NOR-NORESTE EL LUNES. SE ESPERA QUE EL CENTRO DE FLORENCE PASE CERCA O JUSTO AL OESTE DE BERMUDA MAS TARDE ESTA MANANA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUAN AFECTANDO A BERMUDA. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS CONTINUAN EN CERCA DE 90 MPH...150 KM/HR CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. FLORENCE ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. UN AVION DE LA FUERZA AEREA LLEGARA AL CENTRO DE FLORENCE EN LOS PROXIMOS MINUTOS. ALGUNA INTENSIFICACION TODAVIA ES POSSIBLE ANTES QUE FLORENCE PASE POR BERMUDA. FLORENCE EN UN CICLON TROPICAL GRANDE. LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 60 MILLAS...95 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 260 MILLAS...415 KM. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 975 MILIBARAS...28.79 PULGADAS. ES PROBABLE QUE LA MAREJADA CICLONICA OCASIONE MAREJADAS DE 6 A 8 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LAS MAREAS ADEMAS DE OLAS GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS E IMPACTANTES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DE BERMUDA A MEDIDA QUE FLORENCE PASE CERCA DE LA ISLA. SE ESPERA QUE FLORENCE PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 8 PIES PULGADAS SOBRE BERMUDA...CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS POSIBLES DE 10 PULGADAS. GRANDES MAREJADAS EN EL OCEANO Y PELIGROSAS CONDICIONES DE RESACA...INCLUYENDO FUERTES CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS ESTAN AFECTANDO A LAS BAHAMAS Y PORCIONES DE LA COSTA ESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS Y LAS AGUAS MARITIMAS CANADIENSES. FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS COMUNICADOS DE LAS OFICINAS METEOROLOGICAS LOCALES PARA DETALLES DE LAS CONDICIONES COSTERAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 200 AM AST...31.2 NORTE...66.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...90 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...975 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN ** WTJP21 RJTD 110600 *** WARNING 110600. WARNING VALID 120600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 985 HPA AT 18.5N 133.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 20.0N 131.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 20.7N 128.6E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 20.8N 126.2E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 110600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) UPGRADED FROM TS ANALYSIS PSTN 110600UTC 18.5N 133.7E FAIR MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 130NM FORECAST 24HF 120600UTC 20.0N 131.6E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 48HF 130600UTC 20.7N 128.6E 150NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 140600UTC 20.8N 126.2E 220NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 110600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 3 NAME TS 0613 SHANSHAN ANALYSIS POSITION 110600UTC 18.5N 133.7E MOVEMENT NW 5KT PRES/VMAX 985HPA 51KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 120600UTC 20.3N 131.3E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 64KT 48HR POSITION 130600UTC 21.2N 128.8E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT 72HR POSITION 140600UTC 21.8N 126.5E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 110600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 4 FOR STS 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 110600 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL BE GRADED UP TO TY WITHIN 24 HOURS. STS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CDO PATTERN HAS FORMED. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 110900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 110600Z --- NEAR 18.7N 133.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 133.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 19.8N 132.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 20.6N 131.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 21.1N 130.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 21.3N 129.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 22.1N 127.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 23.8N 126.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 26.3N 128.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT --- REMARKS: 110900Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 133.1E. TROPICAL STORM 14W (SHANSHAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM SOUTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z.// ** WTNT22 KNHC 110832 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 0900 UTC MON SEP 11 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 55.1W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 55.1W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 54.8W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.7N 55.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.3N 57.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 22.1N 58.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 23.1N 59.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 25.5N 61.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 28.0N 62.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 31.0N 62.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 55.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN ** WTNT42 KNHC 110847 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 500 AM EDT MON SEP 11 2006 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SOME IMPROVED ORGANIZATION IN THE CONVECTIVE BANDING THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 30 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES WITH THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOLLOWING SUIT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A BIT OF A MYSTERY. THE LATEST GFDL RUN NOW INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL BECOME A HURRICANE IN 48 HOURS...SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL. THIS SEEMS SOMEWHAT AGGRESSIVE CONSIDERING THE CURRENT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN AROUND 36-48 HOURS...AS THE LARGE SCALE MODELS INDICATE. IN FACT...THE GLOBAL MODELS UNANIMOUSLY DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST... SUGGESTING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTERWARD...IF THE DEPRESSION SURVIVES...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAKENING OF THE UPPER EASTERLIES AND IMPROVED OUTFLOW WHICH COULD PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME STRENGTHENING...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/6...WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST. THE GLOBAL MODELS ALL INDICATE A WEAK STEERING CURRENT THAT WOULD EVENTUALLY TURN THE THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE BAM MODELS SHOW RECURVATURE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES BY DAY 4. THE GFDL AND THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST AN ABRUPT NORTHWESTWARD TURN...THEN A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AFTER 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON BLEND OF THE BAMS... THOUGH SLIGHTLY SLOWER...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0900Z 20.5N 55.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 11/1800Z 20.7N 55.9W 30 KT 24HR VT 12/0600Z 21.3N 57.2W 35 KT 36HR VT 12/1800Z 22.1N 58.4W 35 KT 48HR VT 13/0600Z 23.1N 59.6W 40 KT 72HR VT 14/0600Z 25.5N 61.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 15/0600Z 28.0N 62.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 16/0600Z 31.0N 62.0W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN ** WTNT41 KNHC 110857 *** TCDAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 500 AM EDT MON SEP 11 2006 A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT JUST FINISHED ONE COMPLETE PATTERN IN FLORENCE...AND THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 73 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THIS IS DOWN FROM THE 86 KT FOUND ON THE PREVIOUS MISSION. THE CREW ALSO REPORTED THAT THE EYEWALL HAD ERODED...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH IMAGES FROM THE BERMUDA RADAR. ALTHOUGH THE PRESSURE IS HOLDING STEADY...IT APPEARS THAT THE WIND FIELD HAS EXPANDED SOMEWHAT...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 70 KT. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE BROADENING OF THE WIND FIELD SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE NO MAJOR CHANGES IN INTENSITY BEFORE FLORENCE MOVES AWAY FROM BERMUDA. AFTER ABOUT 24-36 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WILL INCREASE SHARPLY AND FLORENCE WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS. HOWEVER...BAROCLINIC INTERACTION WITH A SHORT WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE NEW ENERGY TO FLORENCE AS IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL AFTER 48 HOURS...WHICH WILL SLOW THE WEAKENING PROCESS AND RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT EXPANSION OF THE WIND FIELD. FLORENCE HAS BEGUN ITS RECURVATURE...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 010/10. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF FLORENCE WILL PASS WELL TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA...THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS EAST OF THE CENTER WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE ISLAND. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE GFS CONTROL RUN IS AN OUTLIER WITH A FASTER EASTWARD MOTION...BUT INTERESTINGLY...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0900Z 31.8N 66.0W 70 KT 12HR VT 11/1800Z 33.6N 65.6W 70 KT 24HR VT 12/0600Z 36.0N 64.5W 70 KT 36HR VT 12/1800Z 38.5N 62.5W 65 KT 48HR VT 13/0600Z 41.5N 60.0W 60 KT 72HR VT 14/0600Z 46.5N 50.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 15/0600Z 50.0N 35.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 16/0600Z...ABSORBED WITHIN EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTNT32 KNHC 110857 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 500 AM EDT MON SEP 11 2006 ...SMALL TROPICAL DEPRESSION A LITTLE STRONGER... AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.1 WEST OR ABOUT 495 MILES...800 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...20.5 N...55.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN ** WTNT21 KNHC 110858 *** TCMAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 0900 UTC MON SEP 11 2006 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 66.0W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......250NE 175SE 90SW 175NW. 12 FT SEAS..475NE 275SE 350SW 450NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 66.0W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 66.2W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 33.6N 65.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...250NE 175SE 90SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 36.0N 64.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...275NE 175SE 100SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 38.5N 62.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...300NE 250SE 150SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 41.5N 60.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...350NE 350SE 200SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 46.5N 50.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...120NE 150SE 150SW 150NW. 34 KT...360NE 480SE 420SW 300NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 50.0N 35.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 66.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTNT31 KNHC 110858 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 500 AM AST MON SEP 11 2006 ...FLORENCE APPROACHES BERMUDA BUT IS NOT STRENGTHENING... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.0 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES... 125 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO PASS A SHORT DISTANCE TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FLORENCE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN ELEVATED OBSERVING SITE IN BERMUDA RECENTLY REPORTED A GUST TO 79 MPH. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES. STORM SURGE VALUES OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST OF BERMUDA AS FLORENCE PASSES NEAR THE ISLAND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH FLORENCE...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES. LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS... INCLUDING STRONG RIP CURRENTS... ARE AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR DETAILS ON COASTAL CONDITIONS. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...31.8 N...66.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTCA42 TJSJ 110933 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL SIETE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 2 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL072006 500 AM EDT LUNES 11 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...DEPRESION TROPICAL PEQUENA Y UN POCO MAS FUERTE... A LAS 500 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL SIETE ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 20.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 55.1 OESTE O COMO A 495 MILLAS...800 KM...AL ESTE-NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO LENTAMENTE HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y LA DEPRESION PODRIA TORNARSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL HOY. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1010 MILIBARAS...29.83 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 AM EDT...20.5 NORTE...55.1 OESTE. SE MUEVE...AL OESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1010 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 AM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADORES ROBERTS/FRANKLIN ** WTPH20 RPMM 110600 *** TTT GALE WARNING 05 AT 0600 11 SEPTEMBER TROPICAL STORM (SHANSHAN) (0613) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE EIGHT POINT FIVE NORTH ONE THREE THREE POINT SIX EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE ONE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 120600 ONE NINE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT THREE EAST 130600 TWO ZERO POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT ZERO EAST 140600 TWO ONE POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT FOUR EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTJP31 RJTD 110900 *** WARNING 110900. WARNING VALID 120900. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 985 HPA AT 18.7N 133.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 120900UTC AT 20.0N 131.5E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 110900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 110900UTC 18.7N 133.3E FAIR MOVE NW 07KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 130NM FORECAST 24HF 120900UTC 20.0N 131.5E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 45HF 130600UTC 20.7N 128.6E 150NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 140600UTC 20.8N 126.2E 220NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPQ31 PGUM 110952 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM SHANSHAN (14W) ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 PM GUAM LST MON SEP 11 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM SHANSHAN ALMOST A TYPHOON... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SHANSHAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0N DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 133.1 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 860 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM AND 736 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP. TROPICAL STORM SHANSHAN IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 70 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SHANSHAN IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...AND SHOULD BECOME A TYPHOON OVERNIGHT. REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...19.0 DEGREES NORTH AND 133.1 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 AM TUESDAY GUAM LST. $$ ZIOBRO/GIBBS ** WTNT31 KNHC 111142 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE FLORENCE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 800 AM AST MON SEP 11 2006 ...FLORENCE PASSING NEAR BERMUDA....HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS REPORTED ON THE ISLAND... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.8 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES... 95 KM...WEST OF BERMUDA. FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF FLORENCE IS PASSING A SHORT DISTANCE TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA THIS MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FLORENCE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN ELEVATED OBSERVING SITE IN BERMUDA RECENTLY REPORTED A GUST TO 96 MPH. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 974 MB...28.76 INCHES. STORM SURGE VALUES OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST OF BERMUDA AS FLORENCE PASSES NEAR THE ISLAND TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH FLORENCE...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES. LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS... INCLUDING STRONG RIP CURRENTS... ARE AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR DETAILS ON COASTAL CONDITIONS. REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...32.3 N...65.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH