** WTSR20 WSSS 101800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTCA41 TJSJ 110005 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN HURACAN FLORENCE ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 29A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL062006 800 PM AST DOMINGO 10 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...FLORENCE ACERCANDOSE A BERMUDA...LO PEOR DEL MAL TIEMPO ESTA POR VENIR... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA BERMUDA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO EN LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. DEBEN COMPLETARSE LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD. PARA INFORMACION DE LA TORMENTA ESPECIFICAMENTE PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE MANTENERSE ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 8 PM AST...0000 UTC...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN FLORENCE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 30.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 66.2 OESTE O COMO A 150 MILLAS...240 KM...AL SUROESTE DE BERMUDA. FLORENCE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL DURANTE LA NOCHE CON UN GIRO HACIA EL NOR-NORESTE EL LUNES. SE ESPERA QUE EL CENTRO DE FLORENCE PASE CERCA O JUSTO AL OESTE DE BERMUDA EL LUNES EN LA MANANA. SIN EMBARGO...LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL YA ESTAN AFECTANDO A BERMUDA. RECIENTEMENTE SE REPORTO UNA RAFAGA DE 58 MPH EN LA ESTACION ELEVADA METEOROLOGICA COMMISSIONER'S POINT EN BERMUDA. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS CONTINUAN EN CERCA DE 90 MPH...150 KM/HR CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. FLORENCE ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA UNA INTENSIFICACION ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y FLORENCE PODRIA INTENSIFICARSE A UN HURACAN CATEGORIA DOS CUANDO PASE POR BERMUDA. FLORENCE CONTINUA SIENDO UN CICLON TROPICAL GRANDE. LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 60 MILLAS...95 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 260 MILLAS...415 KM. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL RECIENTEMENTE REPORTADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA FUE DE 975 MILIBARAS...28.79 PULGADAS. ES PROBABLE QUE LA MAREJADA CICLONICA OCASIONE MAREJADAS DE 6 A 8 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LAS MAREAS ADEMAS DE OLEAS PELIGROSAS A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DE BERMUDA A MEDIDA QUE FLORENCE PASE CERCA DE LA ISLA. SE ESPERA QUE FLORENCE PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 8 PIES PULGADAS SOBRE BERMUDA...CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS POSIBLES DE 10 PULGADAS. ADEMAS...GRANDES MAREJADAS EN EL OCEANO Y PELIGROSAS CONDICIONES DE RESACA...INCLUYENDO FUERTES CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS ESTAN AFECTANDO A LAS BAHAMAS Y PORCIONES DE LA COSTA ESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS Y LAS AGUAS MARITIMAS CANADIENSES. FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS COMUNICADOS DE LAS OFICINAS METEOROLOGICAS LOCALES PARA DETALLES DE LAS CONDICIONES COSTERAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 800 PM AST...30.5 NORTE...66.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...90 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...975 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADORES BLAKE/KNABB ** WTJP21 RJTD 110000 *** WARNING 110000. WARNING VALID 120000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 990 HPA AT 18.1N 134.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 20.2N 131.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 20.9N 128.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 21.0N 126.4E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 110000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 110000UTC 18.1N 134.0E FAIR MOVE NW 06KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 130NM FORECAST 24HF 120000UTC 20.2N 131.3E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 48HF 130000UTC 20.9N 128.7E 150NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 140000UTC 21.0N 126.4E 220NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 110000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 110000 UTC 00HR 18.0N 134.1E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR NW 15KM/H P+24HR 20.2N 132.2E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 22.0N 130.1E 970HPA 35M/S P+72HR 23.2N 128.0E 970HPA 35M/S= ** WTKO20 RKSL 110000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 2 NAME TS 0613 SHANSHAN ANALYSIS POSITION 110000UTC 18.1N 134.0E MOVEMENT NW 6KT PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 120000UTC 20.1N 131.4E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT 48HR POSITION 130000UTC 21.2N 128.8E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT 72HR POSITION 140000UTC 21.8N 126.6E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 955HPA 80KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 110000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 110000 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER HAS BECOME COLDER. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 110300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING/ RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 110000Z --- NEAR 18.2N 133.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 133.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 19.4N 132.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 20.3N 131.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 21.0N 130.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 21.5N 129.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 22.2N 127.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 23.2N 125.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 24.7N 125.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT --- REMARKS: 110300Z POSITION NEAR 18.5N 133.4E. TROPICAL STORM 14W (SHANSHAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 580 NM SOUTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z.// ** WTNT41 KNHC 110245 *** TCDAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 10 2006 THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE PRESSURE WAS ABOUT THE SAME AS EARLIER TODAY... 975 MB... WITH 86 KT MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE. THIS FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND CORRESPONDS TO SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 75-80 KT USING STANDARD WIND REDUCTION FACTORS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 80 KT BUT COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS GIVEN THE RECENT WEAKNESS OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STORM. THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE IS MORE RAGGED THAN SIX HOURS AGO AND THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX REPORTED AN OPEN EYEWALL. STILL...THERE IS A NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR FLORENCE TO STRENGTHEN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE INCREASING WIND SHEAR AND COOLING SSTS HINDER ANY INTENSIFICATION. THUS... THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE OVERNIGHT BEFORE ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TO BERMUDA EARLY MONDAY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN BETWEEN SHIPS... WHICH PEAKS THE SYSTEM AT 87 KT... AND THE GFDL WHICH STRENGTHENS FLORENCE TO 97 KT. PHASE-SPACE DIAGRAMS FROM FSU SHOW EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY THE 72 HOUR TIMEFRAME... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL STORM AT HIGH LATITUDES OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN...AS SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. FLORENCE APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED ITS POINT OF RECURVATURE AND IS MOVING DUE NORTHWARD... 000/12. A GRADUAL BEND TO THE NORTH- NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AS THE STORM ENCOUNTERS THE MIDDLE-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. AS THE HURRICANE MOVES FARTHER NORTHWARD... AN ACCELERATED MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST SEEMS LIKELY AHEAD OF AN UPPER-TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH INTERACTION FLORENCE WILL HAVE WITH THIS TROUGH. THE UKMET IS THE RIGHTMOST OUTLIER KEEPING THE SYSTEM MOSTLY SEPARATE FROM THE UPPER TROUGH WHILE MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS SHOW A TRACK CLOSER TO NEWFOUNDLAND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST... BETWEEN THE UKMET AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS... BUT STILL ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0300Z 31.0N 66.1W 80 KT 12HR VT 11/1200Z 32.8N 65.9W 85 KT 24HR VT 12/0000Z 35.0N 64.8W 90 KT 36HR VT 12/1200Z 37.5N 63.3W 85 KT 48HR VT 13/0000Z 40.4N 60.9W 75 KT 72HR VT 14/0000Z 46.0N 53.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 15/0000Z 48.0N 43.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 16/0000Z 49.0N 28.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB ** WTNT21 KNHC 110247 *** TCMAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 0300 UTC MON SEP 11 2006 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 66.1W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 0 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......225NE 175SE 90SW 225NW. 12 FT SEAS..475NE 275SE 350SW 450NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 66.1W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 66.2W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 32.8N 65.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...250NE 175SE 90SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 35.0N 64.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 75SE 40SW 75NW. 34 KT...275NE 175SE 90SW 275NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 37.5N 63.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. 34 KT...325NE 250SE 125SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 40.4N 60.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT...125NE 100SE 75SW 125NW. 34 KT...350NE 300SE 200SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 46.0N 53.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...200NE 300SE 200SW 120NW. 34 KT...360NE 480SE 420SW 300NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 48.0N 43.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 49.0N 28.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.0N 66.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB ** WTNT31 KNHC 110247 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 1100 PM AST SUN SEP 10 2006 ...FLORENCE HEADED TOWARD BERMUDA... CONDITIONS SHOULD WORSEN OVERNIGHT... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.1 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES...190 KM...SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. THE CENTER OF FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR JUST WEST OF BERMUDA TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING BERMUDA. A WIND GUST TO 66 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT AN ELEVATED WEATHER STATION AT THE COMMISSIONER'S POINT ON BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FLORENCE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND FLORENCE COULD INTENSIFY INTO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE AS IT PASSES NEAR BERMUDA. FLORENCE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES. STORM SURGE VALUES OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST OF BERMUDA AS FLORENCE PASSES NEAR THE ISLAND. FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER BERMUDA...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS... INCLUDING STRONG RIP CURRENTS... ARE AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR DETAILS ON COASTAL CONDITIONS. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...31.0 N...66.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB ** WTNT22 KNHC 110251 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 0300 UTC MON SEP 11 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 54.5W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 54.5W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 54.2W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.3N 55.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 20.7N 56.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 21.4N 57.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 22.2N 59.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 24.5N 61.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 27.0N 62.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 29.5N 62.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 54.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KNABB/BERG ** WTNT32 KNHC 110255 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 10 2006 ...SMALL AND SLOWLY-MOVING TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.5 WEST OR ABOUT 525 MILES...845 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...20.2 N...54.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER KNABB/BERG ** WTCA41 TJSJ 110257 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN HURACAN FLORENCE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 30 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL062006 1100 PM AST DOMINGO 10 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...FLORENCE SE DIRIGE A BERMUDA...LAS CONDICIONES DEBEN EMPEORAR DURANTE LA NOCHE... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA BERMUDA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO EN LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. DEBEN COMPLETARSE LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD. PARA INFORMACION DE LA TORMENTA ESPECIFICAMENTE PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE MANTENERSE ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 11 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN FLORENCE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 31.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 66.1 OESTE O COMO A 120 MILLAS...190 KM...AL SUROESTE DE BERMUDA. FLORENCE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO DURANTE LA NOCHE CON UN GIRO HACIA EL NOR-NORESTE EL LUNES. SE ESPERA QUE EL CENTRO DE FLORENCE PASE CERCA O JUSTO AL OESTE DE BERMUDA EL LUNES EN LA MANANA. SIN EMBARGO...LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL YA ESTAN AFECTANDO A BERMUDA. RECIENTEMENTE SE REPORTO UNA RAFAGA DE 66 MPH EN LA ESTACION ELEVADA METEOROLOGICA COMMISSIONER'S POINT EN BERMUDA. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS CONTINUAN EN CERCA DE 90 MPH...150 KM/HR CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. FLORENCE ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUNA INTENSIFICACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y FLORENCE PODRIA INTENSIFICARSE A UN HURACAN CATEGORIA DOS A SU PASO POR BERMUDA. FLORENCE EN UN CICLON TROPICAL GRANDE. LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 60 MILLAS...95 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 260 MILLAS...415 KM. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 975 MILIBARAS...28.79 PULGADAS. ES PROBABLE QUE LA MAREJADA CICLONICA OCASIONE MAREJADAS DE 6 A 8 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LAS MAREAS ADEMAS DE OLAS GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS E IMPACTANTES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DE BERMUDA A MEDIDA QUE FLORENCE PASE CERCA DE LA ISLA. SE ESPERA QUE FLORENCE PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 8 PIES PULGADAS SOBRE BERMUDA...CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS POSIBLES DE 10 PULGADAS. GRANDES MAREJADAS EN EL OCEANO Y PELIGROSAS CONDICIONES DE RESACA...INCLUYENDO FUERTES CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS ESTAN AFECTANDO A LAS BAHAMAS Y PORCIONES DE LA COSTA ESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS Y LAS AGUAS MARITIMAS CANADIENSES. FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS COMUNICADOS DE LAS OFICINAS METEOROLOGICAS LOCALES PARA DETALLES DE LAS CONDICIONES COSTERAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 PM AST...31.0 NORTE...66.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...90 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...975 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 200 AM AST SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVRETENCIA MAS DETALLADA A LAS 500 AM. $$ PRONOSTICADORES BLAKE/KNABB ** WTNT42 KNHC 110259 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 10 2006 THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THAT HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...ESCAPED TODAY FROM THE NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER HURRICANE FLORENCE. AS A RESULT...DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT AND HAS BECOME MORE INVOLVED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN. THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 25 KT BASED ON THE 00 UTC DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 1.5...AND ON AN OBSERVATION FROM SHIP MSJX8 OF WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 27 KT JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTER. COMPLETELY OPPOSITE TO WHAT FLORENCE HAS BEEN...THIS DEPRESSION IS A SMALL CYCLONE. THE CIRCULATION IS PERHAPS 300 NM WIDE AND THE DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. MICROWAVE OVERPASSES BY QUIKSCAT AND SSMI...AND SEVERAL FORTUITOUS SHIP OBSERVATIONS HAVE MADE FINDING THE CENTER A LITTLE EASIER THAN USUAL FOR A DEPRESSION. IT HAD BEEN MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT MORE RECENTLY IT APPEARS TO BE HEADING SLOWLY WESTWARD OR 270/5. STEERING CURRENTS ARE OBVIOUSLY RATHER WEAK...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS ESSENTIALLY DO NOT KNOW THE DEPRESSION EXISTS. THE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST A STEERING PATTERN THAT WOULD TURN THE DEPRESSION SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...INTO THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LEFT BEHIND BY FLORENCE. THE GFS-BASED BAM TRAJECTORIES SHOW RECURVATURE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES BY DAY 4 OR 5. THE GFDL FORECASTS AN IMMEDIATE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THAT LASTS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL THE MODEL CIRCULATION DISSIPATES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PATH OF THE BAM MODELS...BUT NOT AS QUICKLY...SINCE GLOBAL MODELS OTHER THAN THE GFS SUGGEST THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD MEANDER WITHIN THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THIS IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST...AND THE NORTHWARD MOTION LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD CAN BE INTERPRETED TO MEAN WE ARE NOT YET SURE IF THIS CYCLONE WILL RECURVE. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR MANY OF THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONES THIS YEAR...THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN SURROUNDING THE DEPRESSION IS FAIRLY COMPLICATED. THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO HAVE ABOUT 48 HOURS WITHIN AN UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT THAT COULD ALLOW FOR SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS COULD BECOME A STRONG TROPICAL STORM...BUT THE CYCLONE MIGHT HAVE TO CONTEND WITH INCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS QUITE A BIT MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...AND IT IS CLOSER TO THE GFDL SOLUTION OF A WEAKER TROPICAL STORM THAT MIGHT NOT EVEN LAST FIVE DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0300Z 20.2N 54.5W 25 KT 12HR VT 11/1200Z 20.3N 55.3W 30 KT 24HR VT 12/0000Z 20.7N 56.4W 35 KT 36HR VT 12/1200Z 21.4N 57.8W 40 KT 48HR VT 13/0000Z 22.2N 59.0W 45 KT 72HR VT 14/0000Z 24.5N 61.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 15/0000Z 27.0N 62.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 16/0000Z 29.5N 62.5W 45 KT $$ FORECASTER KNABB/BERG ** WTCA42 TJSJ 110305 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL SIETE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 1 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 PM EDT DOMINGO 10 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...SE FORMA UNA DEPRESION TROPICAL PEQUENA Y QUE SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE AL ESTE-NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO... A LAS 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL SIETE ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 20.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 54.5 OESTE O COMO A 525 MILLAS...845 KM...AL ESTE-NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO LENTAMENTE HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y LA DEPRESION PODRIAN TORNARSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL EL LUNES. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1012 MILIBARAS...29.88 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM EDT...20.2 NORTE...54.5 OESTE. SE MUEVE...AL OESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 30 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1012 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 AM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADORES KNABB/BERG ** WTPH20 RPMM 110000 *** TTT GALE WARNING 04 AT 0000 11 SEPTEMBER TROPICAL STORM (SHANSHAN)(0613) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE EIGHT POINT ONE NORTH ONE THREE THREE POINT NINE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE ONE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 120000 ONE NINE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT SEVEN EAST AT 130000 TWO ZERO POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT FOUR EAST AT 140000 TWO ONE POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA = ** WTJP31 RJTD 110300 *** WARNING 110300. WARNING VALID 120300. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 990 HPA AT 18.2N 133.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 120300UTC AT 20.2N 131.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 110300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 110300UTC 18.2N 133.9E FAIR MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 130NM FORECAST 24HF 120300UTC 20.2N 131.2E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 45HF 130000UTC 20.9N 128.7E 150NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 140000UTC 21.0N 126.4E 220NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPQ31 PGUM 110432 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM SHANSHAN (14W) ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 200 PM GUAM LST MON SEP 11 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM SHANSHAN ALMOST A TYPHOON... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SHANSHAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 133.4 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 830 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM AND 695 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP. TROPICAL STORM SHANSHAN IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 70 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SHANSHAN IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...AND SHOULD BECOME A TYPHOON TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...18.5 DEGREES NORTH AND 133.4 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 PM GUAM LST. $$ MIDDLEBROOKE ** WTNT80 EGRR 110459 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 11.09.2006 HURRICANE FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 30.4N 66.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 11.09.2006 30.4N 66.7W STRONG 12UTC 11.09.2006 32.5N 66.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2006 35.7N 64.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 12.09.2006 39.0N 62.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 13.09.2006 42.5N 58.8W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 13.09.2006 44.8N 56.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 14.09.2006 EXTRA-TROPICAL TROPICAL DEPRESION TD 7 ANALYSED POSITION : 20.2N 54.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 11.09.2006 20.2N 54.5W 12UTC 11.09.2006 30.4N 66.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.09.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 10.3N 119.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 12.09.2006 10.3N 119.1W WEAK 12UTC 12.09.2006 10.8N 118.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.09.2006 12.3N 117.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.09.2006 13.6N 118.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.09.2006 14.8N 119.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.09.2006 13.8N 120.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.09.2006 15.1N 120.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2006 14.9N 120.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.09.2006 15.3N 121.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2006 16.0N 123.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2006 17.7N 125.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 12.1N 18.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 12.09.2006 12.1N 18.7W MODERATE 00UTC 13.09.2006 12.4N 21.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.09.2006 12.6N 23.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2006 12.9N 26.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.09.2006 14.0N 29.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2006 15.1N 32.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.09.2006 16.7N 35.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2006 18.1N 37.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.09.2006 19.4N 40.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2006 20.5N 41.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 110459 ** WTIN20 DEMS 110557 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 11-09-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH WEST BAY OF BENGAL ,SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA AND PARTS OF ANDAMAN SEA ,COMARIN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 27 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????????? ** WTNT31 KNHC 110557 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE FLORENCE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 200 AM AST MON SEP 11 2006 ...FLORENCE CONTINUES NORTHWARD... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.1 WEST OR ABOUT 110 MILES...175 KM...SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. THE CENTER OF FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR JUST WEST OF BERMUDA LATER THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FLORENCE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE REACHING THE CENTER OF FLORENCE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW MINUTES. SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE FLORENCE BYPASSES BERMUDA. FLORENCE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES. STORM SURGE VALUES OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST OF BERMUDA AS FLORENCE PASSES NEAR THE ISLAND. FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER BERMUDA...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS... INCLUDING STRONG RIP CURRENTS... ARE AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR DETAILS ON COASTAL CONDITIONS. REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...31.2 N...66.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN