** WTPQ20 BABJ 101800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 101800 UTC 00HR 17.5N 134.4E 995HPA 20M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR NNW 15KM/H P+24HR 19.6N 133.2E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 21.5N 130.8E 985HPA 28M/S P+72HR 22.6N 128.1E 975HPA 33M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 101800 *** WARNING 101800. WARNING VALID 111800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 994 HPA AT 17.7N 134.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 19.9N 131.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 20.7N 128.0E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 20.8N 125.4E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 101800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 101800UTC 17.7N 134.4E GOOD MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 130NM FORECAST 24HF 111800UTC 19.9N 131.4E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 121800UTC 20.7N 128.0E 150NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 72HF 131800UTC 20.8N 125.4E 220NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTPN31 PGTW 102100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING/ RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101800Z --- NEAR 17.7N 134.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 134.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 19.0N 133.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 20.2N 132.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 21.0N 131.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 21.5N 130.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 22.4N 127.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 23.1N 126.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 24.5N 125.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT --- REMARKS: 102100Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 133.9E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (SHANSHAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 620 NM SOUTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN OUTFLOW TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF TS 14W HAS LED TO A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY. AS THE TUTT CELL RETROGRADES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD, INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AT A GREATER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z.// ** WTNT31 KNHC 102044 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 500 PM AST SUN SEP 10 2006 ...FLORENCE GETTING CLOSER TO BERMUDA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.2 WEST OR ABOUT 185 MILES... 300 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THE CENTER OF FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO PASS VERY NEAR BERMUDA ON MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING BERMUDA. A WIND GUST TO 59 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT AN ELEVATED WEATHER STATION AT THE COMMISSIONER'S POINT ON BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FLORENCE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE AS IT PASSES BERMUDA. FLORENCE REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES. STORM SURGE VALUES OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST OF BERMUDA AS FLORENCE PASSES NEAR THE ISLAND. FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER BERMUDA...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS... INCLUDING STRONG RIP CURRENTS...ARE AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS AND ARE BEGINNING TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR DETAILS ON COASTAL CONDITIONS. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...29.9 N...66.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH ** WTNT21 KNHC 102045 *** TCMAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 2100 UTC SUN SEP 10 2006 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 66.2W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 25SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 40SE 30SW 80NW. 34 KT.......225NE 120SE 90SW 225NW. 12 FT SEAS..475NE 225SE 175SW 475NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 66.2W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 66.1W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 31.3N 66.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 25SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 80NW. 34 KT...250NE 120SE 90SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 33.6N 65.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 90NW. 34 KT...275NE 150SE 90SW 275NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 36.0N 63.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. 34 KT...300NE 200SE 100SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 38.6N 61.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 75NW. 34 KT...300NE 300SE 150SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 45.0N 55.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...240NE 360SE 240SW 240NW. 34 KT...360NE 480SE 420SW 360NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 48.0N 45.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 48.0N 34.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.9N 66.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH ** WTNT41 KNHC 102046 *** TCDAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 500 PM EDT SUN SEP 10 2006 THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF FLORENCE HAS NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY SINCE THIS MORNING. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED ONLY A 1-2 MB DECREASE IN THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM 12 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...THEY FOUND A PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 96 KT...WHICH IS STRONGER THAN WAS OBSERVED OVERNIGHT. THE QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW MUCH OF THESE WINDS ARE REACHING THE SURFACE. DROPSONDE DATA THUS FAR SUGGESTS THAT THE REDUCTION FACTOR IS BETWEEN 80 AND 85 PERCENT FROM THE 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS...A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE STANDARD 90 PERCENT. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 80 KT. THE INNER CORE IS SOMEWHAT RAGGED-LOOKING ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS DO NOT INDICATE A WELL DEVELOPED EYEWALL. NONETHELESS...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...LIKELY TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BEFORE THE CENTER NEARS BERMUDA IN ABOUT 12-24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS... INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKENING FLORENCE. THE HURRICANE IS STILL FORECAST TO BECOME A VERY LARGE AND POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/11. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS...ALTHOUGH IT IS LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE...WITH THE GFDL...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF DEPICTING A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND. OUT OF RESPECT FOR THESE MODELS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS ADJUSTED WESTWARD...A LITTLE CLOSER TO NEWFOUNDLAND. THE GFS AND UKMET REMAIN ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFS MUCH FASTER THAN ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...BUT IS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE GFS. GIVEN THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD AT DAYS 4 AND 5...THERE IS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AT THOSE TIME RANGES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/2100Z 29.9N 66.2W 80 KT 12HR VT 11/0600Z 31.3N 66.1W 90 KT 24HR VT 11/1800Z 33.6N 65.1W 95 KT 36HR VT 12/0600Z 36.0N 63.6W 90 KT 48HR VT 12/1800Z 38.6N 61.6W 80 KT 72HR VT 13/1800Z 45.0N 55.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 14/1800Z 48.0N 45.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 15/1800Z 48.0N 34.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH ** WTCA41 TJSJ 102056 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN HURACAN FLORENCE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 29 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL062006 500 PM AST DOMINGO 10 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...FLORENCE ACERCANDOSE A BERMUDA... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA BERMUDA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO EN LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. DEBEN COMPLETARSE LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD. PARA INFORMACION DE LA TORMENTA ESPECIFICAMENTE PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE MANTENERSE ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN FLORENCE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 29.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 66.2 OESTE O COMO A 185 MILLAS...300 KM...AL SUR-SUROESTE DE BERMUDA. FLORENCE CONTINUA SIENDO UN CICLON TROPICAL GRANDE. LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 60 MILLAS...95 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 260 MILLAS...415 KM. LA PRESION MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 975 MB...28.79 PULGADAS. FLORENCE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL HASTA EL LUNES. EL CENTRO DE FLORENCE SE ESPERA QUE PASE BIEN CERCA DE BERMUDA EL LUNES EN LA MANANA. SIN EMBARGO...LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HAN COMENZADO A AFECTAR BERMUDA. RECIENTEMENTE SE REPORTO UNA RAFAGA DE 59 MPH EN LA ESTACION ELEVADA METEOROLOGICA COMMISSIONER'S POINT EN BERMUDA. SON POSIBLES INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE 6 A 8 PIES JUNTO CON OLAS ROMPIENTES PELIGROSAS A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DE BERMUDA A MEDIDA QUE FLORENCE PASE CERCA DE LA ISLA. SE ESPERA QUE FLORENCE PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 8 PIES PULGADAS SOBRE BERMUDA...CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS POSIBLES DE 10 PULGADAS. ADEMAS...GRANDES MAREJADAS EN EL OCEANO Y PELIGROSAS CONDICIONES DE RESACA...INCLUYENDO FUERTES CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS ESTAN AFECTANDO A LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE...LAS ISLAS VIRGENES...PUERTO RICO...LA ESPANOLA Y LAS BAHAMAS. ESTAS CONDICIONES ESTAN COMENZANDO A AFECTAR AREAS DE LA COSTA ESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS. PARA DETALLES SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES COSTERAS...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS COMUNICADOS DE LAS OFICINAS METEOROLOGICAS LOCALES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 PM AST...29.9 NORTE...66.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...90 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...975 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 800 PM AST SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA MAS DETALLADA A LAS 1100 PM. $$ PRONOSTICADORES BROWN/PASCH ** WTPQ31 PGUM 102134 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM SHANSHAN (14W) ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 AM GUAM LST MON SEP 11 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM SHANSHAN CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SHANSHAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 133.9 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 785 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM 810 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN 650 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP. TROPICAL STORM SHANSHAN IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH AWAY FROM YAP AND THE MARIANA ISLANDS. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE OF FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SHANSHAN WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND BECOME A TYPHOON. REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...18.0 DEGREES NORTH AND 133.9 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 PM GUAM LST. $$ AHN ** WTPQ20 RJTD 102100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 102100UTC 17.7N 134.1E GOOD MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 130NM FORECAST 24HF 112100UTC 20.0N 131.3E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 121800UTC 20.7N 128.0E 150NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 69HF 131800UTC 20.8N 125.4E 220NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 102100 *** WARNING 102100. WARNING VALID 112100. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) 994 HPA AT 17.7N 134.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 112100UTC AT 20.0N 131.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPH20 RPMM 101800 *** TTT GALE WARNING 03 AT 1800 10 SEPTEMBER TROPICAL STORM (SHANSHAN) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE SEVEN POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE THREE FOUR POINT TWO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 111800 TWO ZERO POINT ZERO NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT TWO EAST 121800 TWO ONE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT EIGHT EAST 131800 TWO THREE POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT ONE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM ARE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTNT31 KNHC 102350 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE FLORENCE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 800 PM AST SUN SEP 10 2006 ...FLORENCE NEARING BERMUDA...THE WORST WEATHER IS YET TO COME... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.2 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES... 240 KM...SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. THE CENTER OF FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR JUST WEST OF BERMUDA ON MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING BERMUDA. A WIND GUST TO 58 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT AN ELEVATED WEATHER STATION AT THE COMMISSIONER'S POINT ON BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FLORENCE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND FLORENCE COULD INTENSIFY TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE AS IT PASSES BERMUDA. FLORENCE REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES. STORM SURGE VALUES OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST OF BERMUDA AS FLORENCE PASSES NEAR THE ISLAND. FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER BERMUDA...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS... INCLUDING STRONG RIP CURRENTS...ARE AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR DETAILS ON COASTAL CONDITIONS. REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...30.5 N...66.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB